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The toughness meme

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What a difference a day makes.

The media psychology seems to have finally, grudgingly come to terms with Obama's presumptive nominee status. For the life of me, I can't fathom why Official Media (the papers, the networks, talk radio, etc.) never seemed to call out Clinton's bad math with respect to the delegate counts after the Potomac Primaries. There was just no way she could get ahead, even with Michigan and Florida seated at the convention, and no way she could seal the deal. The various spin on popular vote and delegate counts that came from Camp Clinton during the six weeks between Ohio and Pennsylvania were basically the political equivalent of the Chewbacca Defence -- 'No, don't look at that, look at the big Wookie over here! If I'm talkin' about Chewbacca, you must nominate Clinton!'' The blogs occasionally pushed back on the horse race narrative, but the train wreck of the past six weeks seemed to stoke the notion an Obama collapse might be in the offing. Really, the only thing that can turn the tide for Clinton now is a Gary Hart-esque moment, and from the looks of things, that's just not on.

Now, with Obama snagging a landslide in NC and Hillary just barely squeaking by in IN, and the voting preferences of a HUGE Democratic voting bloc (it ain't just the fact Obama carried such a huge margin of African-American voters, it's the percentage of eligible voters who bothered to cast ballots) clearly established, the delegate math just got even worse for Clinton.

Fear not, zombie film fans. The newest meme getting pushed out there is that Obama's not tough enough. I'm not familiar with her body of work, beyond her Wikipedia entry, but Kirsten Powers floated it out there on May 2 in a New York Post op-ed, and Howie Kurtz picked it up in his Washington Post column. That's how I came across it.

As with most lines of BS that get peddled, this one contains a grain of truth. Obama appeared rocked by the past six weeks. He and his campaign got rocked by one body blow after the next, and there were times, most notably during the debate debacle where he looked as though he was asking himself, 'do I really want this?'

But consider what had gone on. There was Wright, Ayers, the debate, then Wright flared up again. Much of it, particularly the debate, was exactly the kind of slime and garbage representative of the old Beltway crap Obama says he wants to get past. I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a bit of wavering of will, especially when he had to disown his pastor.

Somehow, I think Obama's plenty tough, given yesterday's results. The question is whether some of his coalition are tough enough. When the shit was hitting Obama's fan, there was a palpable sense among the Obamans (full disclosure, if I were in the States, I'd be supporting Obama) that they might just walk away from the whole thing in a mixture of disgust and disappointment.

Judging from the blogs I follow (Sullivan, TPM, a dash of Kos and a pinch of Huff), the Obamans' psychology seems much improved, but as one wag whose name escapes me recently wrote, 'never underestimate how much slime a Clinton can secrete'.

My general sense is that even the Clintons now know it's game over, and a concession (more likely a 'suspension of campaign') is iminent. But moving forward, the slime is likely to ooze to epic proportions, and the Obamans may find their resolve tested.

I guess the operative question has to be: The brothers and sisters in Gary have Obama's back. Are the college kids and the people Paul Begala derided as eggheads gonna let  him (and them) down?


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