Fly, as usual, a very logical and reasonable analysis. As a matter of fact, at this very minute I just heard A. B. Stoddard from The Hill on MSNBC saying exactly the same thing - that she will most like stay in through WV and Kentucky and bow out on a high note and at that point work to unite the party. She said that if Clinton decides to take it to Denver the superdelegates will, at that point, step in and end it. I sincerely hope that you and she are right.

I think the real SD movement is the week after Oregon, because the pledged majority is a real milestone, and is Pelosi's and Carter's decision rule. Everything you said about WV & KY supports this. And I don't think the SDs feel the need to wait to see Barack win two more small western states, nor do they care about PR, nor should they.

The only thing cutting against your analysis is the Michigan/Florida May 31 foodfight being in HRC's talking points and interest, and she puts her interest above the party's and Obama's as a rule. However, Obama's folks seem to be offering her cover by offering a plan to seat them, and if the SD stream broadens after OR, allowing Obama to be magnanimous on FL and MI, that all comes together then just as you say.

Good analysis. I had not read Kos' post on the subject.

Very good. I'd like to see him spend some time there, engage a little, and show his ground game. Tighten it up just a little.

But very astute.

The question is, however: how much damage can Hillary do in the meantime?

Fly,
Good post. But unless I'm mistaken, Kentucky is larger than Oregon.

I think it would be best for Obama to avoid the damage of losing an uncontested race, but I'm not sure how lasting the damage would be. There would not be "election night" coverage on cable news for an uncontested primary, WV would be held no more than one or two days after Clinton drops out, and Kentucky would be off-set by a big win in Oregon. So while I think it would be best for Clinton to stick around through the 20th, I'm not sure how big a hit Obama would take for losses up to that point.

After all, McCain actually lost a couple primaries to zombie Huckabee and it didn't resonate that much. People are only just starting to kinda, sorta realize that 25-30 percent of Republicans are still choosing to vote against McCain.

Everyone's May 20 goals can be accomplished without Clinton continuing to pound on Obama. If she continues with the "he listens to experts, I listen to you" stuff, and her surrogates continue with the "he has no balls" stuff, then the benefits of avoiding that embarrassment are outweighed. Not to mention that she's spending real money to do this.

One other quibble: if by some chance she isn't aiming at a May 20 departure date, we can expect to hear two solid weeks of arguments that Obama isn't getting the pledged delegate lead on the 20th because his majority doesn't count MI and FL. To the extent these arguments gain traction, the handy excuse that Oregon will provide for fence sitters to jump will be put in doubt. The next concrete milestone would be June 3, when the last of the votes is finished.

I hope you're right, Fly. But I fear this goes to June, just as her campaign has promised.

Good point, Merle.

Recall how at the time of Huckabee's and Romney's concessions, there was plenty of talk from Republicans how McCain was not "conservative" enough for them, and they would never vote for him en masse. Notice how you don't hear that too much anymore?

I agree with part of the guesswork in this post - namely that Senator Clinton will not concede before WV and KY. However, I would be surprised if top-tier Obama campaign staff hold secret hope she does not concede, as part of some misguided notion that her campaign somehow helps Obama by blunting his losses in those states. The sooner she's out, the sooner Clinton supporters head back to the fold, the sooner Obama can square-off against McCain, and the sooner he can don the shining mantle of "nominee".

If Hillary dropped out, why couldn't Obama concede KY and WV in advance "as an acknowledgment of the great work Senator Clinton did campaigning there" or some such platitude? It would be conciliatory and gracious to Clinton, save him the embarrassment of losing, and allow him to focus on uniting the party and going after McCain rather than devoting time and resources to elections he isn't going to win anyway.

He can frame WV and KY votes as "input from Democratic voters" that he will listen to in the months ahead. Sure this won't stop the media concern trolling about his demographics nontroversy, but taking control of the narrative is the sword with which the Obama campaign can cut this particular Gordian knot.

I think the blogosphere and the Obama camp is really on to something with this May 20th idea. My further hope is that on the night of the 20th, Obama and Clinton appear on the same stage for their victory speeches, and Clinton gives her speech, thanking everyone for a truly historic run for the presidency, and announces her endorsement and introduction of the next president of the US, Barack Obama, to make his victory/acceptance speech.

Here's to wishful thinking... but I think this would have an enormous effect by making a huge jump in bridging the divide of this party. Not to mention the media would eat it up for breakfast.

I'd like to add that there is a danger inherent in merely believing that KY and WV are going to be embarrassing. His own supporters are giving ammo to the press and GOP should Clinton withdraw suddenly, perhaps in an attempt to use those elections to try and force a VP offer.

She can stay in if she wants to- it's clear she has already conceded the nomination itself in spirit- but let's not allow the narrative of Clinton wins in KY and WV as being inherently ugly for Obama to gain traction. He should get a significant bump coming off of Tuesday, and lord knows he's got the funding to back a media blitz.

He should run the same way whether Hillary is in or out- attentive to demographics he is trying to make inroads with in the future, focussed on McCain, but with no illusions that he will have enough time to win them.

The only thing wrong with your post is that Obama has already alienated Hillary supporters. Those polls that say large percentages of her supporters won't vote for Obama should be taken seriously. My favorite moments of alienation were when he joined in the outcry about Hillary's LBJ remark. The other was when her called her Annie Oakley. On that one he couldn't even spin that he was responding to one of her attacks.

Don't worry. I'm voting for him. I can't stand him, but that's nothing compared to what I feel about Republicans. But do worry about a lot of Hillary supporters. And hint: you won't attract them with posts like this one. Too obvious.

Great post. If Hillary has an altruistic bone in her body, this make the most sense.

There is no deep mystery here, I think everyone arrived at the same conclusion. It just makes the post a bit more entertaining.

"The problem with this narrative is that it's nonsensical - there is nothing that will happen on May 20th that will fundamentally alter the race."

Correct... that fundamental alteration happened on February 5th, and everything since then has been superfluous.

Her most ardent supports will not allow John McCain to appoint the next two Supreme Court justices - period.

NPR analyst stated that if the contest continues Rep. 527's would have less time to "swift boat" the Dem candidate, because they would not know which one to attack. While they probably have warehouse storage of attacks they develped on Clinton they may have less time to attack BO. With Fly's reasoning, while I am ready to move forward,I think these are good reasons to delay till end of May, June.

Anyone here think that voters that had been leaning Clinton in WV and KY will now recognize that she is a lame duck, dead duck, duck...and move to Obama?

You would think that at least some of the local and state pols would start moving and lead the way.

Hey Fly,

Thanks for neatly explaining this huge mystery in only like 1500 words! There's no way any of us could have figured these dynamics out without your helpful piece.

You're amazing, you know, I think there must be a mainstream job out there somewhere for you!