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The Hillary Team's Reasons for Failure... and Mine
The most interesting read of the day, for me anyway, was Michelle Cottle's collection of comments from inside the Hillary camp, citing the reasons why Clinton failed to secure the nomination.
The list is revealing on many levels – it should and will be a lesson to political science majors for years to come.
A few things about the article I find interesting...
...less realistic reasons given, which point to some staffers not even getting in hindsight why they failed:
I just think they should have really gone after [Obama] back in the summer and in the fall. (i.e. earlier and harder than they did)...some comments that show a similarity to Neo-Con and Machiavellian thinking :
...it spoke to the character issue: The sense that she will say anything and do anything to get elected.
There was financial mismanagement bordering on fraud.
...polling memos that cherry-picked only positive polls when we were up and ignored polling when we were down.
Notoriously bad managers, they filled key posts with newcomers loyal to them but unknown to and unfamiliar with the candidate...
...they didn't know what they didn't know and were too arrogant to ask......and fundamental flaws:
There were so many consultants, instead of full-time staff.... too many people that had too much else going on on the side.
Running as an incumbent, as the inevitable candidate... in a time when the country is really hungry for change.
Making our chief strategist our one and only pollster.
Her people spent all of 2008 making lists blaming each other (but never themselves) rather than lists of solutions.
So just about every problem you could conjure occurred. But I would say there were significant problems that possibly only an outsider can see. Here's my list:
1. Obama should never have been attacked. Thinking that going on every offensive, and calling Obama her "opponent" for months and months is a good idea is just flawed thinking for a primary. I'm no formal student of the craft, but even I know that attacks in campaigns do two things: A. they bring attention to your opponent, and B. they make you both look bad. Negative campaigning from the front lines is a desperate battle – a scorched earth tactic that claws for a marginal victory, not the right choice of the "inevitable" candidate.I really think she could have copied Barack's hopeful message, agreed with him on everything, and beat him. She did for a while, but in the end, fear took over, and, intimidated by his poise and position, the camp fell back on an attack mode.
2. Her public image was atrociously false. That she thought she had to be anything but her authentic self to win over Democrats was, in my opinion, her most visible blunder. So many of us wanted to like her, but as she continued to shapeshift, laugh inappropriately, and pander shamelessly, she lost those of us who just wanted Hillary. This is not just her failure, but I believe it's the failure of her generation, and the biggest difference between the old and the upcoming new wave of politics. We'll see more politicians rise to the top through integrity and authenticity, as the unyielding, ever-national media coverage, hungry for gaffes and misstatements, continues to leave no room for liars, bigots, and hypocrites. National is the new Local. Ask Macaca.
3. Mark Penn. Now, I know this is a reason insiders agree on, but here's what I saw: a sweaty, ungroomed, fat pig of a man, with a whiny voice and combover, as The frontman spokesperson in those post-debate interviews. Anyone who would give (well, promise, anyway) $5 million to such an obvious mess of a human being (just on appearances alone!) lacks considerable judgment. The rest is said by her staffers.
4. Hillary never learned to speak to a crowd. With a challenger like Obama, you gotta learn how to command a crowd. She thought that monotone yelling into a microphone was the way to rouse the masses. No – it's off-putting, unprofessional, and yes, SHRILL. She should have been in training for crowds, and had people around her tell her she needed training.
5. She thought that being a woman was enough... and many of her strongest supporters still do. But there are a great number of men and women, who pine for more women in power positions, and support all kinds of equal rights, who feel she is not the right person to be president. She could have won them over. Instead, she alienated these would-be supporters with cheap cries of victimhood, and uninspired rhetoric that simply drew attention to her gender. Her words had little to get behind, because ultimately she is not a very likeable person, and she never saw that or endeavored to correct it.
6. she doesn't know when she's beaten. This is evident in her continuation in the race beyond all logic, but this flaw runs deeper and more fundamental. Like a deer in the headlights, she pounds forward with inappropriate message. Her style is that of a steamroller – forge ahead at all costs. It works when people are behind you, but when you're wrong it betrays a big character flaw: unconsciousness, or the inability to improvise, or to see a problem and right the ship.I had a sense that in all debates and interviews, her message was well-memorized. Her answers were similar to a "choose your own adventure" book, where if question 5f is asked, respond with answer 2c. She lacks Obama's (very rare, for a politician) ability to have a loose agenda in mind, backed by a strong self-confidence, to see him through an interview or debate. We could all see him get better in the debates, too. That reveals a conscious effort to see one's self and to then improve that Hillary still does not possess.
In summary, it was just a disaster. How fascinating. Obama's success and Hillary's failure are indicative of the same principle: The New replacing the The Old ways in U.S. politics. These are exciting times, to see such a sea change nationally, and to be there at the beginning of something that will shape the future quite positively.
Well, thanks for reading. I had fun writing this up.
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Comments (24)
Hey, TPM! I formatted the hell out of this using your system, and it looks like a big block of doo doo.
FIX YOUR BLOG POST INTERFACE, PLEASE.
What I'd like:
1. the ability to preview
2. formatting that actually works!
Hint: I'm on a mac, like many other creative people who are inclined to bloviate long-windedly. Do some tests across platforms.
May 16, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe it's just a robot thing, but the formatting didn't seem that bad and I didn't have any trouble reading it. It helps that you raised a lot of good points!
May 16, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny!
May 16, 2008 9:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, rabbit! You have a paisan!
May 16, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, ugh, Rabbit, I separated the paragraphs, bolded the headers, italicized words for emphasis, etc. etc. Just sad and angry to see an extra 10 minutes of effort erased.
I'm glad you were able to enjoy it, regardless.
:^)
May 17, 2008 3:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
FWIW I'm on a mac, too, usually using Omniweb to write here. I rarely get things to come out looking the way I want.
I'm think I'm going to start using someone else's idea (I've forgotten who it was) and just write "see the first comment" in the blog entry and then paste the actual blog entry into a comment immediately after that. It's bizarre that there's one interface for writing blog entries and another for writing comments, but the comment entry is much more predictable because you can write the tags yourself.
May 17, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bespeaks the implicit zealotry of a Mac-head. If you are for Obama, open up to not demonizing the other side! ;-)
May 17, 2008 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/technology/04link.html
May 17, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
We all better hope that Obama is the PC: it's the heavyweight and has captured nearly all of the market.
Of course, it's articles like that one that make you realize the NY Times isn't the NY Times any more!
May 17, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, please not cheap, ill-designed PC crap...
May 17, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't see it exactly the same way you do, but I share many of your thoughts and opinions on the subject.
This part, in particular, stands out in my mind as the real shame of the 2008 Democratic primaries:
I agree. It's presumptuous for me to try psychoanalyzing Hillary, but I can't stop myself after watching her during the primaries. (I get sick of hearing the pundits opine on what makes Hillary tick--as if they really know!) She seems so much more appealing and trustworthy when she is just being herself. I wonder if, after watching Bill for so many years, she has just come to assume that she has to use the same ol' typical-politician-type approach to campaigning. If so, I hope she eventually learns from this experience that she's much better off just being herself when she campaigns. Being herself is good enough. Maybe even great. She needn't embellish or hide behind facades.
May 16, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought that before Nov. we were really seeing the genuine Hillary. Sure, she put on her fake accents here and there and that nails-on-chalkboard laugh, but it seems like it was really her. Now...I'm not saying that I liked what I saw, but it seemed real. I alway said from the beginning that they shouldn't have run her as an incumbent.
She needed to be reintroduced to the American public without the Bill Baggage. Sadly, they chose to latch onto Bill. Sadly, she treated the debates last spring and summer as mere trifles to be dealt with until she secures the nomination on Feb. 5th. She was dismissive and flippant for the most part throughout the debates. Occasionally she'd get fired up, but for me she came off more as that mean school teacher, for a lot of people I spoke with they all said she reminded them of their mom.
The mom thing really turned a lot of people off. Let's face it, when most of the people in the country has a white mother, she's going to be a stand in. When she get mad, people saw their moms. I remember liveblogging one debate when she practically shrieked at Edwards. One guy said that he just had a vivid memory of his mom digging her nails into his thighs during church. The thread from these people who were sharing when Clinton reminded them of their mom wasn't good. It wasn't tending boo-boos and baking cookies, it was punishment, threats of being grounded and the like. I don't have a white mother, so I don't have that baggage with her. It made me think that the first female president more than likely won't be a white woman until white people aren't a majority in this country. I think the first female president will be either a black woman or Latina, merely because of the mammy/nanny complex.
May 16, 2008 8:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
This idea of "running as an incumbent" is new to me, one I didn't consider.
I agree we saw a more 'real time" Hillary early on.
I think you have a point about the mommy complex. The Latino community did seem most in favor of getting a woman in charge. The strong, well-adjusted mother is a big, familiar and comforting archetype for that culture.
May 17, 2008 3:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are making skin color too much of an issue. For starters, I think the "mother analogy" is inaccurate. A more appropriate one is that obnoxious schoolmarm "everyone" had in grade school. The stern, disciplinarian who was always against your having fun. Or something like that.
And there are plenty of non-white people who can relate to that image...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4kiXh8YOzk
May 17, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, what's political blogging without a bit of presumptuous psychoanalysis? You're more than welcome to indulge.
I'll presume she doesn't know herself well enough to be real.
Unfortunately, an authentic Hillary seems to have not been part of the game plan. Would have been fresh and inspiring, I think. An authentic Barack certainly has been.
May 17, 2008 3:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The fact that, since January of 2007, she was referred to in the press as "The Clinton Machine" didn't help her either.
It brought to mind a huge, conceited robot driven by Bill, Mark Penn, and Hillary, in that order.
"The Clinton Machine".
Everyone thought the machine had it in the bag. Now, the machine is left holding the bag instead.
May 16, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right on, right on, right on.
Particularly number 6, which just reminded me way too much of Bush. Not being able to correct a course that is clearly wrong - we don't want or need that in our Leader, do we?
May 16, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the New Republic article cited:
This is fascinating. I read somewhere that Hillary never formally announced her candidacy... anyone want to verify or refute?
One thing is for certain: even when she was a front runner, I never got her "vision" of America. GWHB also had a problem with the "vision thing". Yes, she was for Universal Health Care. But this doesn't mean you should be president.
I also found some of her message non-inclusive, with a large amount of focusing on women and children. You will note that Obama didn't talk about helping the black community (though we all know there is an issue there!) but rather about helping all Americans.
In short, I found her vision to be myopic without a broad view.
May 17, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS Thanks for the blog, great article, great topic.
May 17, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, the vision thing. Part of what I found off-putting about Hillary was that she just consistently seemed to be in this for herself - lots of personal ambition driving her. Even many of her supporters (bloggers) would talk about how she deserved this after all she'd been through. I just never got what exactly it was that she hoped to achieve, FOR THE COUNTRY, as President.
May 17, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
"a fairly broad enough cross-section of her staff responded--more than a dozen members all told, from high-level advisors to grunt-level assistants, from money men to on-the-ground organizers."
And what they reveal is the fact that Hillary is a terrible leader and not capable of surrounding herself with the right people. She is also a very detached leader.
In fact; Hillary is George W. Bush in a Pantsuit.
May 17, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
You'll probably think I'm nuts, but I thought Hillary began to loose when she won Ohio (and Texas for the news cycle before the Caucus votes were in) the wrong way. She was never the same after that. She went mean and she lost the presidential feel. There was a feeling of desperation that seemed as though she believed that she didn't think she had a chance unless she fought like a down and dirty old pol male republican. She was sending a message that she wasn't winning because she is a woman and sexism was to blame, but as her old mentor Jean Houston said in the Los Angeles Times, "Hillary failed to master the female approach." Houston went on to say, "It's a shame the warfare model is still there. If she could have moved to the next level, she would be the next president."
May 17, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry about the mis-spell, when will I learn to proof read?
May 17, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it was the poor performance on Super Tuesday that did her in. The Ohio/Texas performance was her rebounding off of Super Tuesday. I don't think she saw that coming.
May 17, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
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