at the results part tonight

At the results party. I give up. It's too late.

Degrees of impossibility... Why does that bring to mind Douglass Adams?

"What was the Sherlock Holmes principle? 'Once you have discounted the impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.'" [said Kate] "I reject that entirely," said Dirk sharply. "The impossible often has a kind of integrity to it which the merely improbable lacks."

-Douglas Adams, The Long Dark Tea-Time of the Soul (1988)

Genghis:

What can I say? You were right. The media (or at least a substantial segment of it) appears willing to recognize mathematical realities. We'll see how well that holds up over the next week, as a contested WV campaign offers another stretch of exceptional ratings, but it's possible we've turned the corner here.

I do want to take issue with one element of your math, though. There are, according to DCW, 270.5 uncommitted superdelegates. About 20 of those are UADs from caucus states where the Obama-dominated convention will certainly pick his supporters - unlike primary states, there's no chance of surprise outcomes. DCW counts another half-dozen who've promised to support the pledged delegate leader. Than there are those (Donna Brazile, for example) who've made their choice perfectly clear, but prefer to remain neutral for now. Maybe another ten in that category. And finally, there've been a couple dozen Clinton supporters who've indicated that they won't vote against the pledged/popular leader, or perhaps not even against the pledged leader (Maria Cantwell, Elaine Kamarck, etc.)

My point is that it's not improbable - it's mathematically impossible - for Clinton to win the nomination. She can't afford any defections at all, but too many of her supporters have already made it clear that if she couldn't close the pledged delegate gap, they wouldn't be supporting her. With the defections taken into account, she needs to win all but a few dozen of the superdelegates, but more than that number are either (a) UADs going to Obama or (b) clearly committed to him.

It's worth noting that there were no superdelegates announced by the Obama campaign yesterday (although one in NC took the trouble to declare her support by herself). And, despite his sweeping victories, there hasn't been so much of a hint of further endorsements this morning. My guess is that the campaign will hold off for at least a few hours more, giving Hillary the chance to sit with her advisers, hear from party elders and supers, and withdraw with a measure of grace and dignity. But just as soon as she makes it clear she's going to fight, the Obama campaign is going to start rolling out superdelegates. And I suspect that, with yesterday's results in hand, a whole bunch of superdelegates are going to be suddenly prepared to go public with their support. Well before West Virginia votes, the nomination math won't require inferences.

Please also note that Yoda is an all knowing and all powerful Jedi Master who can predict election outcomes before they happen (or at least be damn close): http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/north-carolina-overview-of-the.php

I agree. Your candidate has won. Clinton will try to clear her campaign debt and play on through Kentucky using a unity against McCain theme.

Over the next several months Clinton will do her part to unify the party. If she does so, the least the Obama supporters can do is not blame her when he loses somewhere between Dukasis and McGovern.

Judging by Genghis' inability to write "party" (above), I'm gonna say it went well.

Smaller crowd, happier results. One more TPMer than last time, but I'm not sure that it counts because AM was present last time as well; she just wasn't a TPMer at that time.

Highlights included interviews with a reporter from Finnish television, a round of celebratory shots of Crown Royal, some weird small-world run-ins, and of course, Obama's speech.

Now that's a concession speech. Nicely put.

Great comment Bruce. I am sure with people like you and one_wilson, dedicated democrats to be sure, we will storm the White House in November.

Thank you for that post, Bruce.

" When folks like me get a feeling in the gut, that's how you know we are moving into another phase." That's a rough feeling - I remember having it at some point during the evening on Nov. 2, 2004 and it still aches on rainy days, so to speak. I sincerely hope that Sen. Obama makes the future months easier for you than GWB ever did for me. I'm confident that he will.

It's still going to be a tough battle and Sen. Clinton has a very big challenge in front of her: conceding in a way that both retains her dignity (what Penn left her, that is!) and instead of further dividing the party starts the healing. She can earn the respect of many of us, who were so disillusioned earlier on, if she manages that. We know it's going to be a harder, against-character challenge for her. I'm hoping some of the surprising, against-what-we-thought-was-her-character talents she's shown in the Senate come to the fore.

And now the anxieties about November begin ... well, maybe in a few days! Glad many of us who were supporting different candidates can be sharing those together.

From WaPo:

Barack Obama moved one step closer to complete domination of the internet with the heartfelt, if tepid, concession of longtime supporter, bslev. While he plans to stick with Clinton as long as she stays in the face, bslev declared that "the handwriting is on the wall". His speech was welcomed by Obama supporters FlyOnTheWall, mageduley, Elizabeth2, and the colorfully-collared Genghis. While Genghis had predicted that we would soon see pundits using the cliche, "writing on the wall," he "didn't expect bslev to be the first."

bslev's concession, if indeed it is a concession, would bring the total number of Obama-supporting bloggers to 6,339,223 to Clinton's 12. While economists and other people who know how to count have argued that these odds are insurmountable, Clinton has vowed to fight on, declaring that bslev is a "gutless woos". While amateur bloggers have absolutely no influence on the primary, some speculate that someone, somewhere will read what they have to say.

But seriously, Bruce, thank you for the great post. The feeling is mutual. Like any social organization, TPM is multifaceted, but I like to think that Josh's example of objectivity and good sense attracts an above-average crowd, and members like you are one of the things that I appreciate most about TPM. (Though it's fun to bash gotalife too.)

PS What's a DINO?