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Race and Gender wars
This post was primarily spurred by the inability to comment directly on Josh's latest post, which attempts to prove that Kentucky, and by geographical extension Ohio and Indiana, are more racist than the average state.
Race, as we all know, is almost impossible to discuss without offending someone, or being labelled racist. Perception often seems to make all the difference - for example, the 90% of black voters who support Barack are expressing 'racial pride', apparently, while the 10% of white Democrats who say they don't vote for Barack because of race are racists.
Three things really annoyed me about Josh's post. Firstly, he says that
"Kentucky itself isn't that big a deal since it will almost certainly go Republican in November"
even though, as he points out, the latest poll shows Hillary and McCain neck-and-neck at 46-48%.
Secondly, he tries to use this Kentucky polling to explain away
Obama's loss in PA, and possible loss in Indiana, as being due only to a racist vote (even though exit polls showed that more African
Americans cast a race-based vote for Barack, than whites cast a race-based vote for Hillary).
Finally, although race, inevitably, became an issue in this election, to focus solely on it to explain why Obama isn't winning, is to ignore the big elephant of misogynism, which equally can explain why Hillary is losing.
The state that perhaps set the tone for this whole primary is Iowa, where Obama scored his surprise win. It's also a state that apaprently has the infamy of never having elected a woman to a senior political position. I'm guessing it may
never have voted for an African American either; however, as a proportion of Iowa state population, that's not as good evidence of underlying bigotry (2.5% black, 51% female).
So what's the point of this post? Racism sucks, as does misogyny, and I'm not commenting on whether one is worse than the other.
Trying to explain away a black candidate's losses, and potential losses, as being due to race
, however, is as flawed an idea as explaining a woman candidate losing because she's a woman. But if you're going to try, talking about only one without mentioning the other is evidence of a bias of your own.
By Josh's standards, all those caucus states that voted 2-1 for Obama must have been exercising their misogyny. In fact, in Nebraska, they voted 68-32 in the primary to Obama.
In the general, it's a tie with Obama 42- McCain 45. Hillary-McCain, however, is 30-57.
This is an identical situation to the one he described in Kentucky, so by his thinking misogyny can be the only cause.
So let's balance things up a bit, OK? It's fine to have an opinion, but when it makes your analysis sloppy, you cease to be a good reporter.













Comments (43)
I'm really glad to see you point this out to Josh. Well said
May 1, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
There aren't ten percent of people who say that they will not vote for a woman. There are ten percent who say they will not vote for a black man. There's a difference.
May 1, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's also a state that apaprently has the infamy of never having elected a woman to a senior political position.
Women have been elected Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Ag Commissioner, a number of times in Iowa. That they've never had a woman governor does not distinguish them from most states in the Union (like, say, New York and California) who have never had women governors.
Otherwise, I think your analysis is a bit of a red herring. I think it's clear from the article that Obama isn't necessarily "losing" because of race, but that the portion of the Democratic primary electorate that is resistant to him largely on the basis of his race is bigger than we'd like to think (just as the portion of the Democratic primary electorate that is resistant to Hillary largely on the basis of her gender is probably smaller than you'd like to think). Racism isn't the *only* cause for why Obama didn't win Pennsylvania and hasn't pulled ahead in Indiana, but as the composite of these primary states becomes older and more downmarket, it shouldn't be surprising to see these views more out in the open.
And it should be noted that all that's been demonstrated since March is that Hillary tends to outperform Obama in the Ohio River Valley. This metric doesn't impress me in and of itself.
May 1, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps I should have said "very senior". They've never elected a female Governor or member of congress - either to the Senate or House of Representatives.
The only other state with that dubious record, I think, is Mississippi.
May 1, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I'd wager that those portions aren't that different, either in size or in composition.
May 1, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apples to oranges. If you want a fair comparison, find the percentage of black voters who vote for Barack because of his race.
Remember that Hillary Clinton started off this race with the support of the majority of black voters. Something happened to change that, and it wasn't Barack's skin color that changed.
May 1, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
While we're on the topic, exit polls actually showed the exact opposite of what you're claiming there. The majority of people (black and white) who said that race was a factor in their voting, voted for Clinton.
May 1, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I might have been being a little sneaky there. THe problem comes with asking someone whether they're voting on race, and how truthful you think they'll be. If you're winning 90% of a large racial demographic, it doesn't seem implausible to assert that race is a big factor in how they're voting, though some exit polls do appear to tell a different tale.
May 1, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll grant you that I'd never trust people to be honest about that. I'm surprised that many people have admitted to it!
May 1, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why is it that when 80% of African Americans vote for John Kerry, race is not a factor, but when 90% of African Americans vote for Barack Obama, race mustbe a factor? As Ben points out above, Clinton had the African American vote solidly behind her. Was that a race based preference as well?
Your assertion lacks validity in the face of similar historic precedents.
May 1, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
??
Since when did Obama stop being ahead?
(You're right, of course, that misogyny is a factor. We don't know how big a factor it is, but to pretend it's not a factor is just wrong.)
May 1, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't say he wasn't ahead, just that he's stopped winning [insert implicit "primaries" here] ;-)
May 1, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he's so much stopped winning them as he has lost one-in-a-row recently. I know, po-tay-to, po-tah-to. :P
May 1, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Last year a Gallup poll found that 94% of Americans would vote for an African-American President. Only 88% said they would vote for a woman President.
Don't worry, though, Spade, making stuff up is SOP for an Obamaniac. You will fit right in.
May 1, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is making stuff up? What are you referring to?
By the way, on that same poll, less than half the people said they'd vote for an atheist President. :(
May 1, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's the Atheist Lobby...
May 1, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right here. (Seriously.)
May 1, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sign me up! I'm a godless Shillary troll.
May 1, 2008 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
There do seem to be quite a few of us on TPM.
May 1, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Godless, that is. Not pro-Hillary. :)
May 1, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! I knew what you meant.
May 1, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could be wrong, but I'd imagine that more people would vote for atheists than Muslims or most other non-Christian religions. So that's *kinda* good news for the atheist lobby?
May 1, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know it's different than running for President, but there are actually more Muslim Congress members than atheists.
May 1, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
2 Muslims. 2 Buddhists. And 1 atheist.
Separation of church and state is an illusion, it appears.
May 1, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Per that poll, you're wrong. Both Muslims and homosexuals did better than atheists in this hypothetical presidential election. Good news for Muslims and homosexuals, I guess.
May 1, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol!
May 1, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I stand corrected. That's amazing! It really doesn't make sense, either - you'd think you'd *want* someone in charge who isn't looking forward to eternal paradise; more incentive to keep the Earth in tip-top shape if that's all you've got!
May 1, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, you'd think so. (Sorry about the wee bit of a thread-jack, by the way. I'm afraid it's a bit of a hot button issue for me.)
May 1, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
All those feeling discriminated against for one thing or another are welcome to air their grievances here!
May 1, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a chart from Pollster.com that shows what I'm talking about.
May 1, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is another poll, but it doesn't include Muslims in it. It does, however, include Catholic, Mormon, married 3 times, and 72 years old.
Surprise! Atheists come in last again. :(
May 1, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's disgusting. Most undiscussed discrimination, as well.
May 1, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a somewhere-between-atheist-and-agnostic voter, that's been bothering me a lot this election cycle. I was excited that we had serious contenders who were female, black, and even Mormon... but then I kept coming back to the thought that *I* could never be president. Not that I'd want to be, but knowing that it's pretty much impossible is a little sad. Of course, that isn't to say that plenty of undeclared unbelievers have been elected; but it still bothers me.
May 1, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure you can! Just start going and sitting in the pews somewhere!
I respect people's faiths but I sometimes wonder how many of our politicians are closet atheists. Or agnostics.
May 1, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Was that a poll of Dem primary voters? Or are you comparing apples and oranges?
May 1, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually a gallup poll done before either Hillary or Obama announced, says that in general 61% of Americans are ready for a woman president and 58% are ready for a black president. But when it was broken down further by party it turns out that 64% of Democrats think a woman is ready to be president and only 49% thought a black man would be president.
It turns out that the Republicans are more ready to elect a black president than Democrats. http://race42008.com/2006/10/03/gallup-america-ready-for-a-black-woman-president/
May 1, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
"would" should be "could"
May 1, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps I should have said "very senior". They've never elected a female Governor or member of congress - either to the Senate or House of Representatives.
The only other state with that dubious record, I think, is Mississippi.
Again, very few states have elected women to the U.S. Senate, so if the metric we're now applying is number of states that have never elected a women to Congress, I'm not so sure how much evidence can be gleaned from a state like Iowa with only five congressional districts and a marked (at least until recently) distate for voting out incumbents.
May 1, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
And in 2006 according to a CBS/New York Times poll, 92% of Americans said they were willing to vote for a female president.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/03/opinion/polls/main1281319.shtml
May 1, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
(as long as it's not Hillary)
May 1, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would argue that the Kentucky-West Virginia-Ohio mindset extends from the border all the way up to the south side of Columbus. There are two streets in Columbus Broad and High Streets (downtown) which demarcate the lines of race, ethnicity, class and income. There are exceptions to the rule within Columbus and rural areas of the State but generally this is the overlay on the land.
May 1, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll second that.
May 1, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think there's a poll about this in the latest Newsweek. Or Time. I'll dig it out in a bit.
But I wonder how many of those numbers overlap? Is it the same people who say they don't want a black President who don't want a woman President? Anyone know?
May 1, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
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