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Price is Right politics
One seemingly constant in politics is what I've often referred to as the "Price is Right" phenomenon. On that game show, the last person bidding will usually bid $1 more than the price they think is closest to (without going over) the real price. Thus, if they think the price of something is $650, and the current bids were $300, $500, and $800, that person would bid $501 instead of $600, for instance.
The same thing often happens in politics. Frequently, one candidate or the other (usually an incumbent) establishes their positions first, and then the other candidate "bids $1 more". That is, they pretend to move to the center (or left/right) to capture as many votes as they can. Although it might be ethically distasteful, it often makes good political sense. Bush did it to Gore in 2000, and Kerry did it to Bush in 2004.
When neither person is an incumbent, you might imagine that there might be a bit of a do-si-do as they both gradually move towards a perceived center, but it seems that this election that's not going to happen. I won't proclaim that "politics as usual" is dead, but I do think it's going to take a little nap at least. I won't give all the credit to Obama on this one, either. In an odd way we're in a bit of a prisoner's dilemma, except that neither person seems willing to "rat out" the other, in the sense that if one person shows an unwillingness to move, it makes it all that much easier for the other one to shift to the center.
It really seems like a lot of things are going to be different this year, and I'm really looking forward to the general election.
Comments (8)
Both Obama and Clinton are centrists. The difference is that Clinton is moving to populism, which is exactly what Gore did and won the 2000 election.
On every issue, Obama presents a centrist position, especially in international policy, in health care he is more to the right and Clinton is more to the left.
May 9, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain will also claim to be a centrist, of course. The thing is, I don't see either McCain or Obama (or Clinton, but I'm focusing on McCain and Obama here) changing course now that it appears we're heading into the general. On the other hand, it does seem that McCain did play a little "Price is Right" during the Republican primaries, so maybe he'll prove me wrong in the general. I really expected him to start shifting towards the center/left once Huckabee conceded and he no longer needed to pander to the religious right. I'm surprised he hasn't, but since he hasn't already, I don't think he will.
When Kerry took such a hard right turn after clinching the Democratic nomination it really made my head hurt. I kept thinking that I liked the "real Kerry", but didn't care very much for the one that appeared to be running in the general. (Don't get me wrong—I voted for him. Given the alternative, he would've had to do a lot worse for me to even think about staying home or voting for Bush.) I think that factored into the perception that he wasn't "authentic" and contributed to him losing the election.
May 9, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but McCain isn't a centrist, he's a maverick...just kidding.
The thing is, when you look at McCain's record, he always votes with his party, with few exceptions. He should shuffle on over to the middle, but then, the conventional wisdom is that he'll pick up enough of the evangelical religious right vote, conservatives and traditional republicans and then pick up independents to win.
The problem with this, is that McCain isn't doing very well with three if not four of these groups, especially independents. Limbaugh claims that those republicans who crossed over to vote in dem primaries did so because of his political machinations, but the numbers don't say that at all. In fact the majority of crossovers in every primary with the exception of two, voted for Obama, in some cases 3 to 1 and for those registering to vote as democrats were independents and first time primary voters - and this was after the repubs had a nominee, not before it. If repubs really thought McCain was strong enough to win it wouldn't matter which dem candidate becomes the nominee. This is the story that dems have to work to get out there.
In my opinion, the repub operatives were looking at these early crossover/firt time primary/independent voters and they are panicking which is why they're trying so hard to sell this "operation chaos" propaganda to the public. If Obama is the nominee (and something really drastic has to happen for him not to be) he is going to be in a really strong position to beat McCain, despite the bullshit from the repubs and the press.
It's going to be close, because historically the presidential election is always "close", few elected presidents have had a true political mandate, but a win is a win.
Does Obama have some major problems? He sure as hell does, he better get down to Florida and fix that problem, because the longer he drags it out the worse it is going to get, and he has some big problems with blue collar workers, but he has time to work on that and the press is going to crucify him with the "elitist" label, which I see as the hardest problem to overcome because it has become conventional wisdom, but he will win it.
May 9, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe you are correct on all accounts. Florida (and Michigan) are going to be harder to win this year because of the Democratic party's decision to strip them of all seats. I still have no idea why they couldn't have just gone with the original plan of seating half their delegates.
May 9, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Ben, please take off those Rose Colored Glasses....Invading Pakistan at the drop of a hat wasn't that do-si-do?
May 9, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I suppose I'm really referring to positions offered during the general vs. the primary elections. As I mentioned previously, Kerry took a hard turn to the right after sealing up the Democratic nomination, but I've seen no evidence that McCain did that, and I don't expect Obama to do it, either.
And, no, I don't consider the Pakistan comment to be any more of a do-si-do than the gas tax holiday. As BevD pointed out above, both Democratic candidates have some centrist tendencies (they're more alike than different), but that does not equate to doing the do-si-do I'm talking about.
May 9, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
And not to beat that particular horse again....but that is the problem with a left of center democrat running for national office. He has to run the middle. If he allows McCain to get to that center and stay then its lights out and we have a re-run of 1988.
May 9, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, luckily for us, McCain has run so far to the right (and stayed there), that I don't see him making it back to the center before November.
May 9, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
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