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POLLS DON'T REALLY MATTER MUCH NOW--- BOTH THE GOOD AND BAD ONES
Polls are fun, interesting and the only tangible thing people can use to help predict the future. Unfortunately, they are relatively useless 5 months before an election and prior to the respective conventions.There are some polls which show Obama way ahead of McCain nationally ( Zogby- May 21, 2008) and some show him marginally behind. I am not excited about either. The margins for all of the candidates are so close it appears the one thing we do know is that the race will be close and will likely be very different from the last few.
Many factors are in play which makes it impossible to predict the future, world and domestic events, VP choices, scandal-- the list goes on and on.
Additionally, John McCain has been the unchallenged Republican nominee for some time now free to attack Obama with impunity while Obama has faced two fronts . This will change soon and I suggest the dynamics of a unified Party will strengthen Obam's hand, especially as former foes and fence sitters join his effort.
The Republican's know this which is why their attacks have been almost exclusively aimed at Obama. I am relatively sure it is not because they like and respect Senator Clinton.
The post convention polls-- 2-3 weeks after will start to matter-- but anyone who relies on the current polls to determine electability or the ultimate winner is relying on foolls gold.
Comments (2)
I have a theory that Hillary supporters are skewing the results by saying that they either wouldn't vote for Obama vs McCain or would vote McCain in order to buttress Hillary's argument with super delegates even if they fully expect to vote for which ever democrat in November. I don't expect this to be a big number, but with polls so close and the small number of people polled I think a 1-2% skew could be a possibility.
*I understand some will not vote for Obama for whatever their reason is, however the vast majority of her supporters will.
May 28, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I get it! Your post is part of the "vast conspiracy" Bill Clinton has been talking about. You don't want us to know the truth: that Hillary is WINNING in the polls and key metrics.
May 28, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
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