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Oregon Democratic Primary...... Obama vs Clinton......
I keep hearing people say that Obama is going to win huge huge huge in Oregon Democratic Primary but the polls show him only winning by 6 to 12 points..... how is that a big win..... Older polls had shown hillary winning.... since voting is done by mail, i think this could be a close race.... here are all the polls for the oregon primary:
Rasmussen: Obama: 51% Clinton: 39%
Survey USA: Obama: 50% Clinton: 44%
Survey USA: Obama: 52% Clinton: 42%
OLD Polls:
Riley Research: Clinton: 36% Obama: 28%
Riley Research: Clinton: 30% Obama: 14%
Riley Research: Clinton: 26% Obama: 18%
Riley Research: Clinton: 31% Obama: 21%
Hillary is going to win huge in West Virginia & Kentucky...... If Obama wins Oregon by less than what he won North Carolina... I can see this race going to the end..... To knock Hillary out of the race, he has to win by 20 points.
Oregon is going to be a tight race!!!! Mark my words:)
Comments (11)
The margin doesn't matter at this point.
Even if he finished a close second the delegate math insures that he secures the majority of pledged delegates (the true measure) @ which point remaining supers can safely step forward & ratify the will of the People without Hillary supporters making the claim that he's been awarded the nomination by party insiders.
Now that's what I call democracy...
May 12, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
To knock Hillary out of the race, he has to win by 20 points.
Because ... why?
May 12, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, not sure what Hillary08 is talking about here. Obama is not expected to win big in Oregon, just win. Oregon is not Washington. If Hillary were to win the nom, for example, Oregon would in all likelihood go Red.
His margin in Oregon has nothing to do with his impending losses in KY and WV. The reason this race is over is because we know, with near certainty, what is going to happen in the remaining contests;
Hillary will win, by huge margins, in KY and WV.
Obama will win Oregon, by 3-8 points.
Hillary will win huge in Puerto Rico.
Obama will win SD.
Obama will likely win Montana, but it will be close.
When these contests are over, nothing will have changed re: elected delegates, popular vote, or superdelegates (except Obama will continue to add to this tally). Even if you include Florida and MI as is, nothing will have changed for HRC.
There is no mystery left. It is over. So what the hell are we waiting for? Let's get started on beating McCain.
May 12, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"to knock"?!
He "has knocked" and "did knock" Hillary out of the race with his win in what was the last big state of the race, North Carolina.
Yes, she's technically not out of it. Anymore than Mitt Romney is still in it for the GOP nomination - in the event that John McCain pulls a Spitzer.
May 12, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok words marked :)
By the way does anybody know how Poblano is calling OR?
May 12, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just checking, but does this mean that Pennsylvania was not a big win for Hillary? By this metric, has she had any big wins?
May 12, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Arkansas...
May 12, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I think even by HC08's standards, 44 points counts. Thanks! ;)
May 12, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um. I think the Riley Research polls you're using was when John Edwards was still in the race. Where's the other 30%-40%?
May 12, 2008 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, maybe it will be a tight race. Maybe it won't. What's the point?
May 12, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clearly, you don't want Hillary to lose this nomination, you are not alone. So many of our sisters feel as you do, but those of us who support Obama are not the enemy - McCain is. No matter what happens, we have to unite in order to get this country back. Please be prepared to not blame Obama if things do not come out agreeing with your preference. Your opinion, and thoughtfulness is more important than just your support for your primary candidate.
May 12, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
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