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Oregon .... Could hillary win it...............
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 57% to 39% among men. Among women, Clinton leads 51% to 44%.
Obama leads 51% to 44% among white voters. Clinton
leads 50% to 46% among Hispanic voters. Obama leads 55% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49. Clinton leads 52% to 45% among voters age 50 and older.
Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots. Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots byMay 20th.
20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
Here are a few polls:
ARG: Clinton 45%....Obama: 50%..... 5 point lead for Obama.
Survey USA: Clinton 42% to 44%....Obama: 50% to 54%.... polling data from April 6 to May 11.
Rasmussen Report: Clinton: 39%....Obama: 51%....12 point lead for Obama.
PPP: Clinton: 39%....Obama: 53%....14 point lead for Obama.
Portland Tribune: Clinton: 35%....Obama: 55%...20 point lead for Obama.
when all polls are added together...Obama leads by 14.3%
Can hillary clinton cut into his lead between today and Tuesday, May 20th.?? I believe its possible.
If Obama loses Oregon primary or wins it by single digits or even by less then what he won north carolina..... Hillary will look like the winner that night because of her huge win in kentucky and cutting into his popular vote in oregon.
In order for it to be a good night on May 20th for Obama, he has to win Oregon by 14 points more than Clinton.
Can Clinton actually win Oregon Primary because of early voting.... because all voting is done by mail, alot of votes have been casted before Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia..... can that early voting help or hurt her..????
Look for a surprise win for Clinton on May 20th:)... i give her a 55% chance:))
Comments (19)
The only problem is that he hasn't really been focusing on the primaries at this point, so if she gets close it won't make too much of a dent in his image at this point because the time they have spent there is so disproportionate. It's the West Virginia effect. Even before Edwards the media really wasn't making a big ballyhoo about her huge win there because Obama barely set foot in the state.
The early voting probably hurts her, because if you look at the polling from that early time it was skewed even more heavily for Obama then it is now. It's the same thing that happened to Obama in California, by the time he even started campaining in the state tons of people had already voted for Clinton.
Not trying to rain on your parade, she dose have a chance since Obama is in General mode, however I would put it more at 30-40%. Then we would have to see whether the media even pays attention at this point.
Also it seems that Survey USA is your best bet, at least on the day before. They seem to call it pretty effectively at this point.
We'll see. Obama switching into primary mode could be (as it has so far) the medias cue to switch into general mode itself, or it could be his downfall. Only time will tell.
May 18, 2008 6:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. This is also the reason he no longer has to win by huge margins in Oregon. The only thing that may be able to tarnish him is if she wins it.
May 18, 2008 6:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Go ahead and try to spin the expectations game. If she narrows the gap, it means nothing. Obama is the nominee.
May 18, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Her legitimate campaigning is over. The only left for her is scorched earth tactics. I think that Edwards' endorsement of Obama signals that the party is having none of that.
May 18, 2008 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Hillary beats him by 30 in WV, and it doesn't change the landscape, and garners almost no news coverage, But losing by single digits in Oregon will be signaled as a victory.
It's time to face the music. The nomination fight is over. Hillary lost. You can put the polls away.
May 18, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, John. Get your facts straight. Hillary won WV by 41 points!
May 18, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
In order for it to be a good night on May 20th for Obama, he has to win Oregon by 14 points more than Clinton.
Either that, or he has to cross the threshold that gives him a majority of the pledged delegates (he needs 14.5 more delegates for that). That would make it a pretty good night.
May 18, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
You have included pretty much every way of slicing the numbers but what is missing is where those numbers support your belief that Clinton will shock the world. You simply listed all the polls and then added your opinion that Clinton can still win OR but didn't do anything to tie the two together.
May 18, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do think he needs to win the State on the night he plans to claim victory. If he loses both States, his Victory claim will look sorta silly.
May 18, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
He will Oregon...Hilary is focusin in Kentuvky, and has conceded Oregon...Polls are pretty wrong most of the time...
May 18, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
"...alot of votes have been casted..."
I hate to be a picky grammarian, but really. You have put so much effort into writing down all those numbers but can't handle third grade grammar? It makes one suspicious of how you got the 14.3%. "when all polls are added together...Obama leads by 14.3%." Adding up percentages (2% of 100 plus 4% of 1000 does not add up to 3% or 6%). Your spin is making me dizzy.
May 18, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Picky Grammarian,
Third grade grammar? This here is the United States! After 7+ years of listening to President Bush, the grammar bar has been set extremely low. In fact, the bar's on the ground. Nobody's even pretending to hold it up at this point.
:-p
May 18, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your post. Very brave on the koolaid site. She will blow him away in Kentucky.
Can you imagine if Hillary hadn't made a concession speech as Obama didn't in W. Virginia? What a media frenzy we would have seen. And he won't make one in Kentucky. the democratic party always get in trouble when we let the media do our thinking for us. Remember the Iraq war? Remember the faux impeachment? Remember the war hero candidate Kerry?
Come on Oregon! Give us Hillary.
May 18, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a note, Clinton has only congratulated Obama a couple of times on a primary night on states that he has won and she never used any language that suggests a concession in any of them so I'm not sure what your suggesting about a double standard.
May 18, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you imagine if Hillary hadn't made a concession speech as Obama didn't in W. Virginia?
He did concede WV to Hillary in a speech. He just did it the day before the primary. That's how obvious it was that Hillary was going to have a big win.
May 18, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It really isn't wise of you to mention the concession speeches. Obama has congratulated Mrs. Clinton on many more of her wins than she has his. He's won 30 contests and she's offered congratulations about twice. He's congratulated her on nearly every one of her 17 wins.
May 18, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama can win by 1%, and it will be a good night. Remember, according to Baghdad Bob, a win is a win. The only number that will really matter is 14.5, the number needed to clinch the majority of pledged delegates.
May 18, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Waiting for Lanny Davis to whine: "we're upset because Obama's victory in Oregon deprived Hillary of her much-deserved victory lap for winning Kentucky."
May 18, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Feh. Winning would be nice, but it's not going to change the minds of the superdelegates. Obama is doing the right thing--focusing on the GE and gaining ground on McCain before the rules committee makes a decision on MI and FL and the media lose interest in the race for a month or two.
May 18, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
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