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On Michigan and Sen. Clinton's so-called popular vote lead
In Michigan, Barack Obama wasn't on the ballot, but Obama's Michigan supporters told people to go to the polls anyways and vote "uncommitted."
Here's a great exit poll from MSNBC
(http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225987/)
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If these had been the candidates on the ballot today, for whom would you have voted in the Democratic presidential primary?
Category % Total Clinton Dodd Gravel Kucinich Unc.
Hillary Clinton 46 97 - 0 0 3
John Edwards 12 30 2 - 11 57
Dennis Kucinich 2 - - - - -
Barack Obama 35 18 0 1 2 79
Bill Richardson 1 - - - - -
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Basically, Obama may have received 35% of the vote had he appeared on the ballot. As about 593k people voted, that would have gotten him an extra 200k votes or so by my math. This would wipe out any advantage Sen Clinton could possibly have in the popular vote (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html).
Of course, this is a weird hypothetical. But since Sen. Clinton and her supporters appear to be fans of hypotheticals, its fair game. Good luck to both sides.
Comments (3)
I'm not sure what your post proves except that you consider the popular vote important. If Obama wins the nomination without winning the popular vote it won't look so good.
May 26, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank, Otto, for the expectedly content-free and non-responsive comment.
But a big thank you to Joe. I just asked this on another post, being too lazy to find out whether she's given Obama anything in MI based on the undecideds.
Counting zero percent vote for Obama and giving Clinton all her delegates is so silly that even her supporters should give in on this point. Her plan disenfranchises 40% of Michigan voters. How is this counting every vote?
May 26, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi Joe,
There's no fair way to count the votes based on "what might have been". Remember that many Democrats knew that their primary was not going to count, so they considered voting in the Republican primary.
Hillary's claim for all of the delegates is a non-starter. As in Florida, something is going to be worked out (my guess, something close to the oft proposed 50% cut and roughly even split of the rest between them). The Uncommitted delegates in MI probably should lean toward Obama, but I don't have a strong opinion about that yet.
All of this Hillary-inspired handwaving about the popular vote is a distraction for several reasons, IMO. There's no good way to count caucus participants, where Obama was much stronger, and everyone (including Hillary's campaign) knows that what matters is who has the most delegates (as Nancy Pelosi said weeks ago). That person is Barack Obama.
I fully expect this to be over by June 8. Just a few more days....
May 26, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
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