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On Democratic Optimists
In a previous post today, I wrote that the Republicans today landed a two-punch combination in the general election for president, and that the Democrats did not respond effectively. I wrote that the party had better wake up to what kind of fight they are in, and that means unifying. Commenters assured me this was one just news cycle, to relax, that the Knesset stunt was a joke, and so on.
I'm responding here.
First, to amend my initial assertion that a one-two was landed against Obama today. Make it a three-punch combo. I tend to agree that the actual Knesset speech was the least effective attack pf the day. But once it was seconded by McCain and elicited such a tepid (and non-candidate-specific) rebuke
from Hillary Clinton, I think it is safe to say it had some effect.
The upshot of the episode then, as has been exhaustively pointed out, was that McCain's 2013 vision speech was ecclipsed. However the consensus view that this is helpful to Obama is mistaken. If it were isolated as the majoor story of the day, the 2013 withdrawal scenario would be treated as a major policy reversal and potential epic panderin the mainstream presspress. As it happened, however, the misdirection allowed McCain to put on the record his pivot without it being focused on widely as the flip-flop it is.
Then for the topper, McCain doubled down on the negotiting with terrorists theme on a blogger conference call, broadening the attack into a thundering bodyshot to Barack Obama's fitness for the Commander in Chief role. As i said earlier, this will be a major weakness for him until he is endorsed by Hillary Clinton in a speech that fully retracts her own questioning of his readiness and makes clear it was a cynical campaign overstep that she never truly believed. Anything short of that from her is a shiv in the side of his candidacy (and her own party).
All that aside, here is the larger point that I am confident is being drawn from today in Chicago and other Democratic strategy centers:
Polyannism regarding good Democratic fundamentals is not going to get the man elected. Yes, this is one news cycle, but it is a key one.
Memes get implanted early, and while we are all celebrating California, independents tonight are quietly noting McCain's left-face on Iraq and the party's silence on his calling Obama unfit for the office.
All news cycles are not equal. Democrats have lost elections before that they should have won (more than once) (and more than twice) because of media snowflakes that turned into avalanches.
The overconfidence coursing through the party these days chills me to the bone. The candidate (who to me seems thankfully to be suffering less than most from this malady) must always put on a confident face. But we rank-and-file should be more vigilant.
In every campaign there are slow days, standard days, and important days. And then there are a few signal days. My whole point is that this is a signal day. We found out what this campaign is about today, and we found out that John McCain and the White House are playing to win. And we saw them take the initiative from a campaign that is still quite tied up in resolving matters in its own party.
Comments (11)
You mean his fitness for Commander-in-Chief relies on her saying he's fit to be Commander-in-Chief? That is worrisome.
May 16, 2008 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the most hang-wringing I have seen since dance-offs in the early 90s. (Wash the clothes. Squeeze them out. Hang them on a line. Stop. Step. Turn.) Relax and step away from the manufactured edge of your current understanding of reality.
The whole Commander in Chief meme is a load of crap. There is not a single person in the history of the presidency who was less prepared for the position (based on his resume) than Abraham Lincoln. He seemed to do OK. None of Barack's many supporters think for a second that he isn't more than qualified based on temperament, experience, intelligence and educational background. We carry that message to each and every person we meet, converting strangers and friends alike. There is a reasons why Barack is crushing the competition in most of the open primaries - because a lot of Americans believe he is more than qualified. Much better qualified than the clowns in office right now. Those people won't all of a sudden believe the exact opposite because of something Bush or McCain said.
There is a reason why the qualifications for president are: Natural-Born Citizen and 35-years-old. That's it. Period. There are no other qualifications because the Founders never anticipated career politicians at the federal level. They assumed that legislators would come to Congress and then return to other jobs once the session was over. They also anticipated that, like themselves, the background of future presidents may include a lawyer or a teacher, a doctor or a businessman. They didn't assume that every president would be a lawyer or a former politician of some stripe.
The rules of the game have changed dramatically this year. Barack is playing chess while his opponents play checkers. He has moves charted out weeks and months in advance. His opponents bounce from pseudo scandal to pseudo scandal, hoping the media can defeat him because his opponents can't. If it was still 2004, Hillary would already be the nominee. YouTube didn't even exist when the 2004 election was being run. MySpace had just come out. The playing field is completely different. Barack gets it. McCain and Clinton don't. I don't mean to be ageist, but is most likely a generational thing.
Look at each campaign and who is in leadership positions. Barack's campaign is mostly Gen X and Gen Jones in power positions (with handful of Boomers) and Gen X and Gen Y staffers. His volunteers are scattered across the spectrum, from kids too young to vote to those same children's great grandparents. The American electorate is 180 degrees different and the same lies won't hold firm these days. The carefully-crafted narrative that the media wants to trot out will be destroyed by truth and context.
Just because we are here on this blog and would be considered "political junkies" doesn't mean we are the only ones who can ferret out truth. Further, our interest doesn't stop at the site - we talk to brothers and sisters and mothers and dads, who in turn talk to people who may not even have an Internet connection. The American voter is much more aware this year than ever before.
McCain's little play-acting and the embracing of the Baby Bush storyline will sink his campaign, not Barack's. McCain will have more than enough trouble keeping all his various lies straight and trying not to appear befuddled by it all. As the general heats up, the increased scrutiny will be devastating for the old guy, as will the increased pace. John McCain will be a weak candidate for the republicans in multiple ways. He has made plenty of mistakes that will come popping out as soon as it is him against Obama.
I anticipate more than one "Dean Scream" moment for McCain over the coming months given his temper and the increased scrutiny. As soon as Pastor Hagee's crazy-ass sound bites hit the air, watch-out. Not to mention Lieberman. There is also video of McCain speaking at the Christians United for Israel conference. I was there and both he and Lieberman said some crazy shit.
I am not saying we don't have work to do. I am not saying that each and every Barack supporter will need to help deliver a 50 State Sweep in November. Having said that, I believe that Barack Obama is the candidate and this is the year that such a thing could, and indeed must, happen to chart a different, more sustainable course for this country.
Anything else is the beginning of the end.
May 16, 2008 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Commander-in-Chief-dom arguement gave us Commander Codpiece giving us 'mission Accomplished' and a hunderd years long Occupation of Iraq and unending dependency of dinosaur juice.
This is a REPUBLICAN framework. Stop doing their job against WE, the People.
The President's first job and the reason American's should be picking a person is:
DEFENSE OF THE CONSTITUTION.
I repeat "STOP doing their job!" Re-frame the conversation. If you (we) don't or can't, the result is clear:
President McCain's will be king and the Great American Experiment dies as a fascist plutocracy. America deserves more than dying as a bananna republic.
May 16, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great points. It is way past time we turn off the manufactured reality of the corporate media (or at least adjust our view of their continuing spin of the narrative) and begin to frame the discussion differently.
We have a common narrative that is beginning to emerge on-line.
Americans need to keep reclaiming lost understanding as well as lost terminology. The coporate elite (and their able-bodied politicans in both parties) have redefined our entire lexicon. By using their Doublespeak, we give substance to the illusion they have weaved for the past 40 years. It will take an enormous will to throw it off.
Thank god for the Internet or this great American experiment would have ended under Baby Bush.
May 16, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Folks, what ought to be is not what is.
I agree with nearly every word of all this. You'll get no argument from me that the whole CinC thing is a huge Republican shibboleth. But it just happens to be the way a lot of independents vote.
Unless you're going to turn around and say Obama doesn't need independents because he's just so strong with the Democratic base, these concerns cannot be dismissed.
May 16, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but you are disregarding the huge shift in how the electorate votes this year. Look at open primaries and caucus. Barack is crushing the competition there.
No one is saying the independents and republicans that Barack has already won aren't important to keep for the general as well as increase in number, but this idea that anyone but a small minority of the electorate is buying the neocon frame job this year isn't supported by the data.
This isn't 2004.
The definition of "national security" has changed. Most Americans understand that the McCain-Bush model of CinC is not only dangerous but pathetic as well. The American public is more than ready to hear Barack re-frame the national security discussion until November.
I realize what you mean when you say "what ought to be is not what is." I would submit that you are mistaking how it is now for how it was four years ago. I say what "ought to be" is in fact becoming what is.
A movement for throwing off our blinders has begun building during this primary under Barack and it will only grown in force and scope. Of course, there will always be people who confuse dick waving with strength, but a good chunk of us of every political persuasion are waking up to the idea that we have been duped by politicians on both sides of the aisle, presidents of both parties.
The outcomes from more than 40 years of governance don't match the stated objectives of our "leaders" in Washington.
It seems our survival instincts all kicked in at the same time. It allows this agnostic to believe in a higher power of some sort, because things couldn't be more desperate and the changing nature of the American electorate couldn't be more profound.
May 16, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Everything you are saying is also being said by almost everyone, so I concede mine is the contrarian view. I hope like hell it's all true!
I just think that elections are more dynamic than this (admittedly widely believed) narrative suggests. I think the electorate can't be characterized at large in this way, and it's too early to know how they will go. It isn't 2004, but it may be more like it than we think. Or it may not. The campaign has to play out before we can know.
Political scientists tell us that the campaign is relatively unimportant in comparison to the fundamentals, and if that's true, so be it--awesome! But the last two elections have been battled to parity by the parties and decided on the margins, and I think at that point a news cycle or meme this way or that can absolutely tip it.
May 16, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, the margins have decided who won in the last two elections. Two things we are seeing this year makes comparisons to any other year a non-starter: Primary Turnout and Crossover Voters for Barack.
Those two things equals an election that is more governing majority (think 1984's election of Reagan) than a 50% + 1 squeaker like the last two.
Only if we get the Obama/McCain match-up, though, because a Hillary/McCain contest is another 50% + 1 election that democrats have a habit of losing.
May 16, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the primary is over, so it's Obama-McCain. That was my real point: it's game on, starting yesterday.
I agree, the primary turnout is a potentially dispositive, and it could very well make my concerns look chicken little-ish today. There might just be this absolutely overwhelming wave of previously apathetic moderates and progressives and even moderate conservatives who are fed up. Actually, I think there will be.
But days like yesterday hurt Obama with the crossovers, which was my other point. These are prople who did buy the GOP framing in 2004. They may actually have voted Kerry, but they did so because they thought he passed the C-in-C test (which they do not see as completely bogus).
Obama is responding well today, we should note, albeit in the next cycle. His responses are getting quicker, and they probably will continue to, which is a good thing, but it was still a little slow for my taste.
Btw, I'm the enjoying the chat. I looked at my initial post from yesterday, and it defnitely sounded more panicky than I intended. Meant more of a rallying/battle cry.
May 16, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mike, I appreciate the concern, and the well-written post.
But I think Obama's response was spot-on. As someone remarked in the comments on the speech itself, it's not as though there was no response yesterday. You had Biden calling bullshit, you had tons of people (down to Chris Matthews) saying negotiation ≠ appeasement.
That sets the ball up, so people can understand, today, why Barack would be angry. And that allows him to deliver a speech that is calm and clear, but also strong and scornful. The target audience may or may not get the minutia of diplomacy, but they can understand tone. When Barack says "I will debate John M. anytime, anywhere, and I will win" he doesn't *look* wimpy.
Getting the tone right is as important as speed. They responded quickly, *and* they set things up so Barack could hit this at the very peak of the story, and hit it hard.
In short, the sky is not falling. This is the way it should be played. And personally, I take tremendous pleasure in seeing such an effective attack aimed at the idiotic bluster that has passed for Republican discourse on foreign policy.
May 16, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having watched it play out now, Alex, I have to agree with you 100%. No doubt there is a reason Gibbs & Co. are running the show & not me. We're left over the weekend with the images you describe.
Looking at it yesterday, I was concerned. All the response save Biden looked weak and not on topic. Clinton's statement was not on the point that he really needs her on--readiness--and she made a point of not defending him by name. That's what made today so excellent--he passed on the whole appeasement nonsense (more or less... well okay not really, but...), and went staight to the most important part of yesterday: who's ready to protect the country.
Maybe something about the instantaneous blog/media environment is paradoxically allowing more room for campaigns to choose their spots in answering charges now, or maybe they just recognized that this was a two-day story leading into the weekend. Whatever it was, seems like it worked out okay, didn't it? Like I said, Gibbs is the pro, not I! We'll see how they score it on Sunday morning funnies (not that they're the final word by any means!)
Hey, have a great weekend all--thanks for the great comments, this was fun!
--Mike
May 16, 2008 9:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
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