« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Oil Well Not Ending Well
Every time I've wanted to sit down and write a blog this week on oil, another sign of crisis has popped up. I've decided that energy issues are now moving to a central stage (just as I predicted, no one talks about universal health care anymore as a main election topic), and I just need to jump in with some points to think about as the semi-official start of summer begins:
We are seeing signs of peak oil all around us.
Prices show no signs of abating. It is speculators that are causing the prices now because there are no swing producers.
No less than 3 gas stations in my neighborhood have closed for a day this week to upgrade their pumps. This is to allow them to handle gas prices higher than $5/gal. So the oil companies know what is coming.
Ford is cutting back production of their SUVs -- market forces are finally at work! But probably too late.
American Airlines (the nation's largest), will be charging $15 for a checked bag and cut 10% of their flights because of the price of oil. Jet fuel is the highest refined, and most costly, of all the petroleum energy products. In short order, we will need what we don't have -- a rail system that can move people distances that airplanes used to take us. It may already be too late to get a rail system functioning on that scale.
Meanwhile both houses of Congress continue to pander to the vast majority of uneducated Americans:
<em>The House passed a bill to sue OPEC under anti-trust measures. George Bush will correctly veto such a bill.</em>
First, it is downright stupid to sue a foreign entity like this and sends a weak signal geo-politically. Secondly, OPEC can seriously retaliate by (a) not selling oil in dollars -- a trend already started, but will be exacerbated and (b) reduce the dollars in their foreign currency reserve. The Saudis did this already when the US invaded Iraq.
In other words, the world is realigning and the trust in the dollar as a "universal" currency is dropping -- and it is that trust that provided our stable economy despite our debt culture.
<em>The Senate, meanwhile, made a nice show of chastising the US oil company executives.</em>
Talk about your election year theatrics.
The US oil companies produce less than 20% of the world's oil. And they don't set the prices (see above regarding OPEC and speculators).
So, what does this all mean? The signs of the end of cheap energy being over are all there. The US is running out of time to prepare for what James Kunstler calls THE LONG EMERGENCY. And Congress is spending precious time playing pointless blame games.
Something to think about this long weekend.












Comments (37)
Not that Congress could do much on energy policy with W in office . . .
How many miles of passenger rail (and equivalent public transport improvements) could have been laid for a fraction of what Iraq war has cost?
May 23, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Specious argument. Congress has no problems closing ranks and rallying around an issue of national emergency.
The problem is that cheap energy and it's accessibility has never been seen as a national emergency, except for a brief time during the late 70s and early 80s:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/the-moral-equivalent-of-war.php
May 23, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
But isn't it possible that a different President could have convinced people that we were looking at an emergency sooner?
May 23, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not an either/or situation, CAPaige. My comment implicitly suggests that we needed Congress to act because clearly the President would not.
However, now if you look at what Congress is doing, it's just more election year shenanigans. And Bush is correct in vowing to veto a lawsuit against OPEC for reasons I stated.
Politicians will give people what they want, whether it makes sense or not. There is a tricky road to lead people just enough to change their behavior without losing them in the process.
May 23, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess this was my point, as well, with the proviso that politicians can also influence what people want.
May 23, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry to get lost in the minutiae, but what kind of bad design requires an upgrade for going over $5/gal? $10/gal I could understand, but what's magical about $5/gal? My first thought was that it had something to do with totals going over $100, but I've got to believe that's been happening for quite some time with some of the larger gas tanks out there.
Of course, in a few years, it just might go over $10/gal, and that will require even more upgrades!
May 23, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/05/12/old.gas.pumps.ap/
Typo about the 5... it's really $4/gal. Apologies.
One thing I've noticed, the gas pumps faster at the new pumps -- I'm guessing it's because the internal mechanisms can now speed the price along.
May 23, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
We had a station near us here that had to upgrade. It's ridiculous--the pump was installed in the early 1990's. It's not like the technology for digital pump meters was unavailable back then, and it's also not like $4.00 gas was completely inconceivable.
May 23, 2008 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is a shame, but not a surprise, that George W. Bush didn't try to capitalize on 9/11 to try to encourage reducing our dependency on foreign oil.
If sold as part of the sacrifices we have to make to fight back against Al Qaeda, you could probably have pushed a $1 or $2/gallon gas tax, which would have helped slow demand and raised revenue that could have either helped pay for tax cuts (which would have been better targeted to working class people affected most by a regressive gas tax increase, but I digress...) or infrastructure improvements, such as the rail you mentioned above.
The International Energy Agency is cutting its long-term oil supply forecasts, which implies higher prices as demand continues to grow. As India, China, and Brazil continue to modernize, their consumption is likely to rise, faster than our own.
May 23, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
My two cents...
A few things that relate to our oil price woes are:
1. The demand is simply going up, along with the prices. The world has more people than ever and developing countries like China and India are beginning to consume oil at developed world rates.
2. The Middle East oil reserves have passed their midway point of oil production. New oil reservoirs were being found and drilled every year for over 50 years, but these new reservoirs are no longer being found at the rates with which they were previously. In addition, the newer ones are not nearly as large as some of the most massive such as in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, with an end in sight demand and speculation increase further.
3. The U.S. dollar has been weakening under the Bush administration consistently against other currencies, while other currencies are rising. When the value of oil goes up globally, it is felt hardest by the currencies plummeting in value such as the U.S. dollar. We were surpassed by the Canadian dollar recently! (What a joke!) Places like Europe have been paying far more than the U.S. for gas for years. That is probably why their mass transit systems are far superior and why so many are willing to endure the humiliation of riding mopeds (seriously though, I think they're fun as hell, but I would lose all of my street cred if I got caught on one).
4. The instability is further driven by speculation, which can be very lucrative to those willing to take the risk. Large scale speculation in any market severely disrupts it and in the case of oil creates even more artificial instability. There's nothing like market instability that strengthens commodities like gold or oil (black gold).
There's probably more to it than that, but that's what I have learned through lectures and reading. Oil is such a precious resource and to squander it all so quickly is just so short sighted. If we needed oil for some amazing technology in the future, even unrelated to the combustion reaction, it would be either unavailable or simply too expensive for practical use.
Alternative energy is almost already available for a common person to make available for themself. With the way oil prices are going, people will have to take out loans or save big chunks of money and just go for it, before they go bankrupt. If I was wealthy, I'd throw solar panels on my house, drive an electric car, and enjoy being more wealthy in the 3-4 years it takes to make up those savings.
Btw Clearthinker, keep up the good posts. It's nice to finally have a response that I think can almost keep up with your ravenous intellect.
May 23, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most Europeans actually still pay twice as much for gas as Americans.
Europe also has the advantage of having been built almost completely in an era without cars. Population is far more evenly distributed.
May 23, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. In relative terms, they're paying less compared to us than they used to. Gas was $4 or more a gallon in much of Europe when you could still get it for under $1.50 here.
The irony of the gas tax "holiday" debate was that if anything, we should have an added tax - the only negative of that in my opinion is its overly regressive effect on lower and middle class car-dependent people. But a much higher price would help slow the rise in demand, and would eventually cause people to agitate for lifestyle changes (living closer to work, improved public transportation, etc.) that could ameliorate things at least a little.
May 23, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Higher prices are a way to get people off of cigarettes... or gas.
May 23, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Peak discovery tends to lead peak production by about 40 years. Peak discovery in the lower 48 states happened in 1935 -- and peak production in the lower 48 occurred in 1972.
World peak discovery happened in 1965. So this is another indication that the world has peaked in 2005. Although OPEC problems show even more verification.
Your post is decent as well!
May 23, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
And to tie this thread back to the election (since everything has to be about the election, right?), I'll link to an old post I did speculating that the goal of the Iraq war, and McCain's "100 years" of occupation, was to create permanent American military bases in the center of the middle east oil region, in preparation for a resource war later this century.
I hope that doesn't prove to be an accurate prediction.
May 23, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The oil to run such an operation won't last nearly 1/10 of that 100 years time.
May 23, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something about this comment did not sit right, and I think I finally figured it out.
Your dire predictions (warranted or not) overlook the fact that the military/government will be locking down supply while the rest of us lowly citizens will be left to fend for ourselves. This means that the oil supplies we are surrounding with our military are not for monetary gain, but for the security/sustainment of our armed forces.
Oddly enough, what is environmentally unsound will become energy sound - large cities will be the few places where relative normal life can be maintained.
Suburbs will die off or become enclaves where energy and food production can support those who live within limited distance (energy)
I wandered off track. In short - there will be plenty of oil for our military and some of that oil will be used purely for the exploitation of additional oil stocks.
May 24, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
CAFE standards have to be raised. As long as U.S. automakers are getting hit hard anyway, now would be a good time for a public/private partnership to invest in a crash R&D program for near-term delivery of more gasoline-efficient engines and vehicles.
Alternative-fuel engines likewise need immediate development, a la the cars used in Brazil.
Light rail, alternative biomass, wind, solar and fusion reserach could all use a boost, as well. But the problem boils down to one thing: Iraq is siphoning off all our money that we need for infrastructure development and research.
May 23, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a side note, a few weeks back I went on a short vacation and took the train. About 800 km (500 miles or so), three countries - Germany, Austria, Czech Republic.
I was mildly surprised that in all three countries, I saw new tracks being laid, likely high-speed capable, and I saw train stations restored and upgraded. Almost as if someone was thinking ahead (which is highly unlikely!).
May 23, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
A future resource war in the Middle East is a frightening possibility. However, I'm sure we'll be well out of oil by then. Plus you need some measure of security to drill oil. We can barely keep the oil wells in Iraq pumping without pipelines and the wells themselves being attacked. I don't think the people of the Middle East would be willing to just sit around while we punk them for oil.
May 23, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Question is, would a war for oil really be cheaper than just buying it? Wars aren't cheap.
And if American companies were pumping oil, wouldn't they act against their own best interests if they didn't sell it to the highest bidder?
I strongly suspect that an oil war would not only create all the problems wars create, it would also abjectly fail to solve the problem in the first place. (Of course, none of that means it can't happen!)
May 23, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, but who picks up the tab when we go to war? It's not the oil companies…
May 23, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure. But the oil companies also don't (or really shouldn't at least!) decide when to go to war and where.
May 23, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, just because a war is not a good idea does not mean it would not be sold as one. This country does have a consistent recent history of taking "the military solution" against its best interests, when sufficient propoganda is employed. In fact, we even seem to be teetering along the edge with Iran, regardless of the poor results we've gotten in Iraq.
May 23, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Btw...this site posted by another contributor earlier blog. http://www.sierraclub.org/wecandoit/home/electric_cars.asp
It's an electric car powered by the solar panels of a person's house. Not only do the solar panels gather enough energy to charge the car, but they power the house! I want one! If I just had $45,000K...
May 23, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
45 thousand K!? 45 million, that seems a little steep. :-)
Slightly more seriously, I want a Tesla Roadster. Alas, that alone is $100K. But it's a big step in the right direction, anyway.
May 24, 2008 4:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jet fuel is the highest refined, and most costly, of all the petroleum energy products.
I believe this is just wrong. Jet fuel essentially is like kerosene but cleaned up a bit. It's doesn't take a lot of steps to make i.e. it's not highly refined. The refining process isn't all that costly which isn't to say it isn't pricey. The price of jet fuel will probably kill (not bankrupt) at least one airline by the end of the year.
May 23, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I should have been clearer: I should have said aviation fuel (not the more restrictive "jet fuel") and I should have not been glib about the term "refined". The fuel itself is highly processed (and has a variety of additives to it) and is of a higher quality.
You need more bang for the fuel buck to get a jet to work. You won't see any jets running on batteries.
May 23, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clearthinker, another good one. Keep it up. THE LONG EMERGENCY -- depressing read.
May 23, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
New breeds of cars like the Axon might go a long way toward cutting demand for oil. Carbon fiber construction can cut the weight of a vehicle in half; the Axon weighs 400 kg, or less than 1000 lbs, and gets 80-100 mpg on its 40hp engine.
While I agree with Ripper McCord that we need upgraded CAFE standards, the fact is that we've already passed higher standards, and they are going into effect slowly in the coming years.
Too slowly.
An aggressive mandate can cause a vehicle fleet to turnover in about five years. Brazil had to institute such a mandate around the turn of the century to get everyone driving ethanol-optional cars. As I recall, they didn't have too many problems. Now look at them; they're world leaders in biofuel production. Not that cane-ethanol doesn't have its own critiques, but here at least we see an energy policy that worked, reduced oil demand significantly, and executed a rapid fleet turnover.
We could do the same thing with a more aggressive set of CAFE standards. Instead of bringing the US to a par-with-the-world CAFE of 35 mpg by 2020, we do it much faster, say by 2013; we can provide tax incentives and/or writeoffs for people who need to buy new cars to comply with higher fuel economy standards. Just think of where we'd be if we'd all been driving Geo Metros for the last twenty years.
I agree with CT that we need to make changes, and fast, to address the energy problem. I say if we want to keep our cars, we've all got to start looking at getting the most economy out of the existing infrastructure and technology. That means we embrace driving small, light cars if we want to keep filling them with gasoline. Otherwise, it's probably back to rail travel for all of us in the not-too-distant future.
May 23, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I meant to add to the CAFE paragraph that these standards need to keep going up past 2013, 2020, and on. I think between plug-ins, light carbon-fiber cars, and a CAFE around 60mpg+ some day, we can probably keep cars economical forever if we are scrupulous.
May 23, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I see all these SUV's on the road with their "For Sale" signs and think back to that time of fat Bush tax deductions for buying fat cars. Bush could have started to do something about this problem at that time and did the exact opposite.
May 23, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
seriously
May 23, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW Ford isn't just cutting back on production of SUVs. They're coming to a screeching halt on production. They won't make another SUV or big pick up truck for the rest of the year.
And on that note it's time to start drinking.
May 23, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
As the price of crude becomes unbearable, maybe it is time to invest into some serious infrastructure. Light rail is uppermost in my mind.
I think $150-$200 a barrel isn't out of the question.
May 23, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check your dates, 1849. Oil was $100/bbl in April or March. Now it's $130+. If prices don't stabilize, well, I won't insult you by doing the math for you.
May 24, 2008 1:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Congress finally gets a veto proof majority on something to oppose Bush on and it's a pandering OPEC bash? Pathetic. This is where they take a stand?
Though I might have to go pour myself a glass of wine and mull over the fact that I agree with Bush on something....
May 24, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment