Last week, the United States deployed a second aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf, while insisting that this move was not a signal of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran but instead was a “reminder” to Iran. With Admiral Fallon’s retirement, an opponent to a war with Iran, and General Petraeus’ promotion to his job as CENTCOM commander, it would seem that a war with Iran might be in the cards.                     

As many of us know, the war against Iraq wasn’t about Iraqi freedom as the Bush administration tried to convince us, it wasn’t about terrorism, it was about oil. It was about the fact that in 2000, Saddam Hussein “insisted Iraq’s oil be sold for euros, a political move, but one that improved Iraq’s recent earnings thanks to the rise in the value of the euro against the dollar.” 

            For the same reasons the United States attacked Iraq, the United States is now flexing its military muscle to intimidate Iran. In the summer of 2003, Iran began discussing plans to stop selling oil in dollars and instead begin trading in euros. To further this plan, Iran also began making plans to create its own stock exchange, the Iranian Oil Bourse. This would create problems for the United States because oil is currently exchanged on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), both exchanges are owned by American corporations. Last fall, Iranian President Ahmedinajad at the OPEC meeting in Saudi Arabia announced that the U.S. dollar was worthless due to its depreciation and the losses were being sustained by oil exporters. Ahmedinajad, along with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, tried to get support at the OPEC meeting for a proposal that would trade oil in a variety of currencies and replace the dollar.

            In response to Iran’s impudence, the US has put pressure on European and Asian banks to isolate Iran by accusing Iran of terrorism and attempting to build a nuclear weapons program which Iran vehemently denies. However, the threat Iran poses to the United States is not nuclear, it’s economic. According to William Clark, the author of Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar, “the drop in demand for petrodollars would cause the value of the dollar to plummet further, thereby undermining the U.S. position as the global economic leader." This past week Iran has officially divorced itself from the dollar, isn’t it a coincidence that during this same period there is another aircraft carrier on its way to the Persian Gulf?

A factor which concerns the Bush/Cheney administration is that China is one of Iran’s biggest trading partners. China’s dependence on Iran for energy is similar to the United State’s dependence on Saudi Arabia. If the U.S. were to attack Iran, it would cause severe strain to American ties with China. This is because China has over $1 trillion in foreign reserves, and as of November 2006, $700 billion or 36% of that was held in U.S. treasury securities.  (Remember a few months ago when the Fed loaned $200 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in exchange for mortgage backed securities that have lost their value). Joe Biden wasn’t being flippant last summer when he said that China owned the mortgages on our homes. The U.S. can’t afford to antagonize China because economically speaking, China owns us. We’ll need some kind of pretext to intimidate Iran without provoking China or threatening China’s interests in the region. Hence, the narrative of the Bush administration about Iran: Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons, Iran is responsible for the deaths of US troops in Iraq, and Iran is a part of the axis of evil. It’s interesting to note that the Bush administration has no evidence that Iran’s government is responsible for the deaths of US troops, in fact, Admiral Mullen, the chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, confesses that there is, “no smoking gun which could prove that the highest leadership (in Tehran) is involved.”

So, here we are. The dollar is weakening, stocks are down, oil is traded at $110 a barrel, and Admiral Fallon, a critic against a war with Iran, is retired and General Petraeus has taken his place. Are we headed to war with Iran? Perhaps. We’ve certainly rattled our sabers in its direction often enough. Including, presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton who has threatened genocidal retribution if Iran attacked Israel, despite the fact that Israel is more than capable of defending itself, despite the fact that by attacking Israel, Iran would also be responsible for the deaths of their fellow Muslims in Palestine and despite the fact that in December 2007 the IAEA and the NIE declared that Iran has not been pursuing a nuclear weapons program.  Saber rattling is not going to convince a nation that is already paranoid that it is surrounded by enemies to not arm itself to the teeth. It’s time we asked ourselves, is our economic preeminence really worth the lives that will need to be sacrificed for it? In the words of John Lennon isn’t it time to “give peace a chance”? Isn't it time to elect a president who respects all cultures and is willing to engage in diplomacy?