OBAMA’s VP: OUT OF SIGHT, OUT OF MIND AND OUTRAGEOUSLY OBVIOUS

I contend Barack Obama knew his Vice President the moment he announced his candidacy for Presidency.  

Unlike recent nominees, Obama has no need for gambits and is not concerned about being overshadowed.  

In 2000, the Democratic convention was on August 14-17.  Gore named Lieberman on August 8th.  6 days before the convention. (This showed tremendous indecision on Gore's part.  The choice itself reflected Gore’s narrow thinking.)  In 2004, the convention was on July 26-29.  Kerry named Edwards on July 6th.  20 days before the convention.

The 2008 convention is on August 25-28.  Barack Obama is already campaigning hard against McCain.  He will need to share the burden soon. The Hillary experience cannot linger.  Folks will need to forget Clinton, and focus instead on the race against McCain.

THE SPECULATION

There has been much speculation.  Bloggers, broadcasters and bookmakers have been rounding up the usual suspects.

I could inflict pages upon pages debunking those most often mentioned.  Instead, I will summarize the speculation briefly below.

It will not be Clinton.  There are thousands of reasons why not, most of which have been well argued here already.  What of Clinton’s surrogates? Ted Strickland looks like some character from the Love Boat.  Wesley Clark looks like one of the others in Lost.  Evan Bayh is John Edwards Lite.  Bill Nelson could help with Florida. Ed Rendell could help with Pennsylvania.  Mike Easley could help with North Carolina. But none of those characters have simpatico with Obama.  Of those not aligned with Hillary.  Jim Webb would come across as a Sexist Pig when pitted against John McCain’s running mate.  Kathleen Sebelius can’t guarantee Kansas.  Joe Biden is a blert.  Sam Nunn is no Ray Clark, though his endorsement will impress enough folk down in Georgia.  Chuck Hagel will be better employed repairing the Defense Department and disassembling the meat grinder in Iraq.  John Edwards has been told the job will not be offered to him, which is why he said he doesn’t want the job.  Claire McCaskill and Chris Dodd (my two preferred Obama surrogates) would both have Obama’s back.  Missouri and Connecticut were Obama’s two most important victories.  But Missouri’s Senate seat cannot be risked and Connecticut doesn’t add up.  (NB. Obama owes Ned Lamont, so expect Dodd to be offered a central cabinet position.)  If Bill Richardson, another blert, delivers New Mexico, and helps in Colorado and Nevada, his reward must be a cabinet position.  Richardson’s selection may also needlessly irritate some Hillary deadenders. Tim Kaine’s views on abortion would keep some key Democratic voters away from the polls.  Brain Schweitzer could put Montana in play, but with only three Electoral College votes, the reward would not be worth the risk.

SO IF NOT ANY OF THE ABOVE, WHO WILL IT BE?

You can be sure Axelrod, Obama and Plouffe had this figured out a long, long time ago. McCain's choice may give them pause, but then again, Obama may announce his choice before McCain. I expect he will and leave McCain for dust.  Obama is not going to let something this important be decided in the Dog Days of Summer.   When the announcement comes, and it will be very soon, it will be a “surprise” and "unexpected". The choice will be super appropriate and logical, even though "no one" or "nobody", as the media like to say, was expecting it.  So who will it be?

Former Governor Mark Warner of Virginia:  Out of Sight, Out of Mind and the Outrageously Obvious Choice.

Mark Warner can help Barack Obama win.  But more importantly, Mark Warner has the executive experience that will help Barack Obama manage the country effectively, and win again in 2012.  The 2012 election could be a much tougher proposition for Obama.

Warner and Obama have proven technique in winning campaigns.  Warner’s win in Virginia in 2001 was remarkable.  It is also noteworthy that Warner cut his political teeth as Campaign Manager in 1989 for Virginia's first African American governor, L. Douglas Wilder. 

Warner was a very successful businessman and a highly successful governor in Virginia, curtailed by term limits.  He got things done in the rural “red” counties of Southern Virginia.  Obama often talks of wanting to take broadband to rural America.  This is straight out of the Mark Warner playbook. And for what it’s worth, Mark Warner became known as the “NASCAR Governor”.

Both Warner and Obama are Harvard Law graduates. You can sure this has already enabled their convergence. Warner has business experience also.  Nextel trumps Staples.  Obama is the word guy.  Warner will be the numbers guy.

Warner has the classic “first to graduate college story” to tell the American people. His wife, Lisa Collis, was the first Virginia first lady to keep her maiden name.   Lisa Collis started the Virginia Women for Obama.  The Warner family will be on board with the campaign.  Michelle and Lisa, and their children Madison, Gillian, Eliza, Malia and Sasha will exude togetherness when they take to the stage in Denver.  It promises to be one of the most special of most special moments in American political history.  For real!

SO HOW DID MARK WARNER BECOME BARACK OBAMA’S RUNNING MATE?
 
Mark Warner was smart enough to sense Obama’s irresistibility and inevitability in 2006. This was two years before Edwards could see it.  Mark Warner was also smart enough to begin a campaign for Senate as a Plan B.

To recap, here are some of the major articles on or interviews with Warner when he was running for President in 2006.  Warner was then considered to be the only serious candidate to challenge Clinton.  The lengthy Matt Bai piece in the New York Times below best highlights Warner’s political and personal compatibility with Obama.

<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/12/magazine/312bwarner.html">New York Times</a>
<a href="http://dir.salon.com/story/news/lotp/2005/06/13/virginia_governor/">Salon</a>
<a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5354610">NPR</a>
<a href="http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2005/11/28/2/a-conversation-with-governor-of-virginia-mark-warner">Charlie Rose</a>

But then on Oct 10th, 2006, Mark Warner inexplicitly dropped out.

The announcement didn't add up.  I had just listened to two interviews Warner had conducted in late September on WNYC radio in New York.  Warner was running hard.

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/12/AR2006101200510_pf.html">Washington Post</a>
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/13/us/politics/13warner.html">New York Times</a>

But Warmer left a hint. 

He said when he asked about his future,

"When and where, I don't know right now. But I guarantee you'll see me. I'm not going away from being involved in how we get our government fixed."

13 days after Warner dropped out, Obama dropped in.

No one in the media made the connection at the time.  I did, and have been pondering it ever since.  I believe something must have gone down, some arrangement made between Obama and Warner.  Warner cited the easy and obvious reason behind his decision.  He got out of the race for "family" reasons.

<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/22/AR2006102200220.html">Washington Post</a>

And why did Warner drop out? <a href="http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1545871,00.html">Time</a>

speculates, but fails to make the connection.

WHAT DOES WARNER STAND FOR? DOES WARNER COMPLEMENT OBAMA?

Can Mark Warner reach constituencies other Democrats cannot?  And does his manifesto fit with Barack’s Obama message of renewal and change?  Yes, he can.  And yes, it does.  <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/25/opinion/25mon1.html">Look to Virginia, Not to China</a><a href="http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/printStoryId.aspx?StoryId=5218">Yet, Warner is a Globalist</a>


Both Obama and Warner irritate some progressives.  This is a strong sign they can win over the centrists and conservatives they need to win over in order to win the General Election.  Here's some progressives getting agitated about Mark Warner in the Prospect.<a href="http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=09&year=2006&base_name=mark_warners_antipopulism">Warner’s Anti Populism</a>

And let's not forget the Jewish vote, Warner's already <a href="http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/05/mark_warner_heads_to_israel.html">Introduced himself to the Hebs</a>

In this Primary election cycle, only a couple of commentators have given Warner any serious consideration.  The New York Observer piece is particularly incisive and outlines the mechanics of how Warner exits the Virginia Senate race.

<a href="http://www.observer.com/2008/obama-warner-scenario">New York Observer </a>

Meanwhile much of what Warner has been saying in the last year as he runs for Senate in Virginia has a national and international slant, whether it is about global business trade or energy solutions.

Here's Warner quoted on how best to deal with <a href=http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/stories/wvec_local_031308_warner_in_Norfolk.e4ca664.html">Iran</a>

Here's Warner <a href="http://www.flathatnews.com/news/2043/warner-addresses-business-ethics">speaking on Business Ethics</a>

And yes Warner was against <a href="http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/05/m_warner_agains.html">the Gas Tax Holiday </a>

Warner is practical and principled.  He is comfortable talking new clean coal solutions with miners in Virginia, while he and wife, Lisa Collis, make significant contributions to the Nature Conservancy.  They donated <a href="http://www.nature.org/wherewework/northamerica/states/virginia/press/press3413.html">$1.5 Million to the Nature Conservancy in February 2008</a>

Mark Warner has kept <a href="http://www.wsls.com/sls/news/opinion/jay_warren_blog/article/do_we_have_a_sign_of_which_way_warner_is_leaning_in_the_democratic_primary/8515/">Mum</a> throughout this process.  This is important.  Warner hasn’t endorsed Obama, largely because he didn’t need to attract attention. When Obama makes the announcement, Warner will be neutral and better positioned to assuage Clinton supporters.

When the announcement comes, it will be classic Obama. Consider every major Obama announcement or endorsement.  There will be scant warning and many of the pundits will be caught off guard, unprepared and unable to frame the news in their neat conventional wisdom pigeonholes.

To those who question whether Mark Warner wants the position.  Remember, Warner had the ambition.  He would not have tried for the Presidency in 2005-6, otherwise.

Consider below the ambition of Obama's 97 Senate colleagues.  Note what the bookies favourite Jim Webb says here.  <a href="http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/senators-say-whether-theyd-agree-to-be-vice-president-2008-05-12.html">Webb Not Interested</a>

Warner already has the name recognition and gravitas that could practically guarantee Virginia.  Virginia has not gone Democratic in a Presidential election since LBJ won in 1964.  Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. 

Warner is exactly the type of Vice President Obama said he wanted when he also spoke of bitterness in San Francisco some months ago. See <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/obama-says-no-to-foreign_b_95357.html">Huffington Post</a>

Here's are the two pertinent quotes from the link above.

Last night Senator Obama had a few more words on the subject of choosing a vice president.

"I would like somebody who knows about a bunch of stuff that I'm not as expert on," he said, and then he was off and running. "I think a lot of people assume that might be some sort of military thing to make me look more Commander-in-Chief-like. Ironically, this is an area--foreign policy is the area where I am probably most confident that I know more and understand the world better than Senator Clinton or Senator McCain."

"That last thing I'd say about a vice president is--obviously, you want someone who can be president and who shares a broad vision of where I want to take the country; don't have to agree with me on every particular, but shares with me a bias for opening up government, adding a rational discourse about how we're gonna solve problems, a bias towards empowering individual citizens."

Opening up government is exactly what Warner did in rural Virginia.  Exactly.

Mark Warner will be perfectly placed to replace Barack Obama in 8 years time, and in a much better position than if he were a Senator from Virginia with one term under his belt.  Warner would have the advantage of incumbency and the bounce from being a part of the successful team that changed America and realigned it with a changing world.

I can HOPE that this will be the beginning of a beautiful 16-year friendship between Obama and Warner and the people of America and the rest of the World.

P.S.

And according to Robert D. Novak, Warner’s associates said Obama is considering Warner…and if Novak said so, well, it must be true. ;-)  Read all about in the <a href="http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?articleId=4c42be55-720d-4934-bd21-5f31b3d7b254&headline=Robert+D.+Novak%3a+Mark+Warner+for+Obama%27s+VP%3f">Manchester Union Leader</a>