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Obama's gas tax logic holiday -- a few questions for the candidate.

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Questions for Sen. Obama on the gas tax holiday issue:

1.    You have criticized  Sen.. Clinton's gas tax holiday as, and I will summarize here, (1) a political gimmick that will not deliver any significant relief to consumers, while diverting us from the serious energy reforms we need to undertake (2) an opportunity for oil companies to raise prices to capture the missing tax increment, (3) an inducement to drivers to drive more, thus leading to more consumption and higher prices down the road and (4) a drain on highway trust funding, which is sorely needed to repair our crumbling infrastructure.  Correct?

But don't you believe that people are hurting, and especially those who drive a lot, need some short term help?  Isn't $30 or $50 or so a serious amount for some Americans, if not for you? And Sen. Clinton made no mention that she would abandon her other, long term plans to fix our energy problems, did she?  So isn't it unfair to say Sen. Clinton's short term proposal will replace serious reforms?

And aren't your other criticisms also unfair and inaccurate?

For example, if the oil companies raise prices to capture the tax decrease, as you suggest they will, then there will be no inducement to consumers to drive more, and hence no resulting increased demand and higher prices , correct?

On the other hand, if the oil companies do not raise prices to recapture the tax, and gasoline prices are actually lower, how is this different than any other price decrease?  Or are you opposed to all price decreases because they will spur consumption?  Are you now advocating high gas prices as a policy?

Finally, if Sen. Clinton replaces lost revenue with a windfall profit tax on oil companies, as she insists is necessary, then there would be no harm to our infrastructure repair work, correct?

So isn't your criticism unfair?

How is this attack at all different than what you criticize Sen. Clinton for -- namely, the old divisive politics, twisting your opponent's words for political advantage?




Comments (29)

I don't understand why so many people don't understand the simplicitiy of supply and demand. I'm beginning to think its willfill ignorance, because they don't want to face the fact that hillary clinton is a lying panderer who will do or say anything to get elected.

If prices drop, demand will increase. Seeing as how a "gas holiday" won't do anything to increase supply, that means more demand and less supply. That means PRICES WILL RISE.

This "holiday" will do nothing but cause prices to rise. And if thats your goal, mission accomplished. However, if your goal is to get some relief to families, then you better find a better plan cause this one won't work.

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Pretty cynical view of the iron laws of supply and demand. And what, pray tell, is demand? For some folks, it is the ability to get to work at all, or a summer vacation or a trip to the grocery store. That is why a little help is better than none...

George,
You are arguing about this as if this is a political argument. That is if Obama is just contradicting Clinton for the sake of contradicting.

The problem is that every economist understands that the supposed effect of this proposal, to lower prices for consumers will not happen. Economists who support Clinton think this, Economist who support McCain think this, and on and on.

It has nothing to do with concern for voters. it has nothing to do with what you think about the structure of the oil market, or the iron laws of supply and demand. This is not an opinion that you should feel free to disagree with.

It's just true.

Are you really incapable of acknowledging truth because of your political sympathies?

Part of the problem is 1) the assumption of a static gas price and 2) that the oil companies will pass along the "savings" from the tax holiday to the consumers.

And I love this statement: "if Sen. Clinton replaces lost revenue with a windfall profit tax on oil companies"

Exactly, how is "she" going to do that? How will "she" get this passed in Congress? Do you have any idea about how the legislative process works?

The supporters of this tax holiday have no concrete way to make up the loss in tax revenue and what we will do about the billions and billions in lost tax revenue for the infrastructure.

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Gasoline pricing is one of the most inelastic price curves in the consumer market.

Re Sen. Clinton's inability to effect this on her own -- quite true. But should Obama's political allies kill this off in the legislature just to score political points against Clinton?

no. they should kill it off because its a really bad idea.

The ability to pass said legislation is irrelevant. Her proposal to collect windfall taxes just means it is possible to make up lost highway revenue in the short term (there is an argument that long-term effects of the tax would be negative, however.

It has nothing to do with whether prices would fall, which they won't.

I'm not a 100% sold on the windfall profit tax, but they are both advocating it. The difference is that Hillary would have to use it to replace the lost revenue from her gas tax holiday "solution" while Obama proposes it be used to increase federal support for state and local-level efforts to relieve the burden of rising energy prices on low and moderate-income families.

The right policy to stimulate alternative means of energy usage is to raise gas taxes. That is the other problem with Clinton's proposal. The response to rising oil process is to conserve or use alternative means. Everybody in America could save more money driving 5-10 miles an hour slower than even the most fantastical predictions of how much they would save.

Drive slower, inflate your tires, don't idle the engine, don't drive aggressively and you will save yourself some money.

Then next time you need a family car, buy a Volkswagon diesel station wagon that gets 45 miles to a gallon.

Politicians owe us the truth, not a bribe that never even materializes.

I think Hillary just wanted to finally make an inspiring speech. I think she just wanted to give people empty hopes that they could save some money. Problem is, what she is proposing, she is completely incapable of acomplishing, and she knows it.

Like her health care debacle previously, and the one she is trying to sell now. She can't get things done because she pisses too many people off to ever get the kind of cooperation she would need.

Obama's speeches inspire me because I think he can do what he says, and there isn't evidence to refute that, as there is against Hillary being able to deliver.

I am no expert on this issue but I have heard from several and they all say it is a bone-headed idea. I'm sure all those driving HUMMERS would be delighted to save so much money, but do they need to? One expert suggested a holiday from the Social Security tax (the most regressive in our system) to give relief to the people who need it most.

But this is not a short-term problem, and Obama is the only one to acknowledge that. One example: the US went from a 25% share in the solar industry to 8%. Why? Our priorities are displaced. If we would use our ingenuity to tackle the big picture and become the world leader in alternative fuel R&D and production instead of saving $.18 a gallon at the last point on the continuum, we could revive our economy and do some good in the world.

You simply don't get that even with a windfall profits tax, that "cost" will be passed on downstream, which is something corporations are structured to do.

No savings for the consumer whatsoever are to be found in this - it's just faux-populism of the Republican kind - which is why Clinton has signed on to it.

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Hey Grouch,

Pretty cynical view. You are assuming that an integrated oil company can pass through price increases at will into the downstream market. This is not so easily done, particularly if pass-through is prohibited in the enabling legislation.

Granted, there is very little price competition in the downstream market, which is highly concentrated, and characterized by oligopolistic interdependence and outright price coordination in which all competitors follow the pricing lead of a market leader in each pricing zone.

But there will be a political backlash against any company caught downstreaming these tax costs, and more than a few state antitrust investigations will be initiated. I think this is a good thing and long overdue.

More fundamentally, it is time to reform the antitrust laws to allow government to police and repair broken markets such as this.

George, this is gibberish, unless what you want to do is simply cap the price of gas by law. That as every economist on the planet will tell you will lead to a shortage of supply.

Really, truly, you have to be able to separate your candidate preference from your logical brain functions.

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Economides,

I take it you are a petroleum economist? Not gibberish at all. No need for a price cap, either, which Nixon put in place so long ago on the upstream. (Hawaii had the last price control plan, but Chevron killed it through their close relationship with the governor there.)

A windfall profits tax is not a cap. It scoops off profit above a certain level, period. If an oil company raises prices to recapture the lost tax increment, that is also recognized as profit, and is taxed.

Every major oil company has sophisticated management reports -- like Chevron's former PSS system -- that segment their revenues, costs and profits at each level of the vertically integrated operation. It is not a difficult accounting exercise to tax excess downstream profits above a certain gross percentage.

The oil companies are making ridiculously high profits these days. They will not back off production. This goose is too fat.

You are simply wrong stating that, "as every economist on the planet will tell you will lead to a shortage of supply."


Refineries work at maximum capacity in summer months. So if gas companies raise prices in order to stem the increased demand given the tax cut the net effect will be gas that would cost the same, consumers paying the same and thus driving the same WITH ONE LITTLE DIFFERENCE in that oil companies will be pocketing the other 18% rather than the government who reinvests that money in roads and infrastructure.

Now Sen. Clinton's plan is the windfall profits tax, which would recoup the money the Government lost in with the consumer tax cut, however in that case everybody is back where they starter. Instead of the consumer paying 18 cents a gallon tax to the government, they'd pay 18 cents more a gallon to the oil company who would in turn turn around and give it to the government.

It's all smoke and mirrors. Under McCain's plan Big Oil makes more money, and under Sen. Clinton's plan, there is only superficial change - instead of the consumer paying to the government, they pay that money to Big Oil and then Big Oil pays the Government.

well said.

Rather than asking Obama why don't you do a search on any of the news aggregation service for news reports on the subject? You will discover economists, even Clinton supporter Krugman, dismissing the idea that it will lower prices at the pump. Refineries are running at full tilt already and consumers are obviously willing to pay the price, so the price will not fall.

And, the Clinton proposal is nothing but naked pandering.

To think that legislation suspending the gas tax and imposing a 'wind fall profits tax" can wend it's way through Congress by Summertime is ridiculous, and to tell voters so is dishonest. No surprise there.

None-the-less, the Clinton gambit will likely garner her a few uniformed votes.

This post reflects a tragically under-developed understanding of basic economics and a willful ignorance of the day-to-day fluctuations of gas prices. It would take more time than I have to correct the former, but I want to make an attempt at the latter. Consider the following hypotheticals:

The price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas at the pump where you live on the morning of day x is $3.50...

Hypothetically speaking, an oil tanker runs aground but no oil is spilled. Does the price of gas at the pump where you live go up, go down, or remain the same? It goes up.

Hypothetically speaking, a hurricane is projected to make landfall in the gulf coast in two days. Does the price of gas at the pump where you live go up, go down, or remain the same? It goes up.

Hypothetically speaking, a pipeline servicing the port of Basra is attacked and shipping is disrupted. Does the price of gas at the pump where you live go up, go down, or remain the same? It goes up.

Hypothetically speaking, the price of crude oil per barrel drops signficantly for three straight days. Does the price of gas at the pump where you live go up, go down, or remain the same? It goes up or remains the same. It does not go down.


What do these hypothetical events have in common? First, none of them need be considered exclusively as hypotheticals since they have all happened within the last few years. Second, they are all events effecting short-term crude oil supplies directly, but none of them have anything to do with the price of the gas that is already at the pump where you live. If the two were directly related in an elastic way, the fourth event should make the price at the pump go down. But it never does. Why? Because they are not elastic. This is also true of the gas tax. If the price is $3.50 and some percentage of that is the gas tax that you pay but never think about, a gas tax holiday is not going to mean that your gas MUST be cheaper. It just means that the government ISN'T collecting the taxed amount for a period of time. So if your gas isn't cheaper during the so-called holiday, who is collecting the money that isn't going to the government as revenue? I guess that only depends on where you buy your gas.

Face it: Hillary and McCain are pandering on this one. But their pandering isn't going to help you in any measurable way unless you're an oil executive. The assertion that it is worth $9 billion in lost revenue so that families MAY recoup $30 is ridiculous on its face. I'm not surprised that McCain is suggesting it's a good idea. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Hillary says she favors it either...

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Hillary Clinton panders to voters by proposing gas tax holiday.

Senator Obama and Congress reply:

Well Woop-De-Doo!!!

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Let's first recall that Clinton and McCain are sitting senators. If they really believe in this tax holiday, which they want to start in 30 days or so, they should be back in Washington drafting up the legislation and lining up support. McCain, especially, hypothetically doesn't have much else to do until he knows his opponent. If he's busy playing Senator he can save untold dollars on campaign spending, funds for which he is supposed to be in short supply for him.

Hillary could also play senator, save some much-needed campaign bucks, and run great commercials on how she is working hard for hard-pressed Americans, or at least those in Indiana and North Carolina. She has the additional benefit of a certain ex-president who can campaign on her behalf while she is doing hard work.

On the other hand, just talking about an idea in speeches sounds a lot like what she accuses Obama of doing all the time.

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How about that? She apparently is introducing such legislation.

Points added for sincerity and determination, deducted for doggedly following a bad idea.

Remember that the determined, unrelenting pursuit of bad ideas is a key characteristic of the current White House incumbent, who is known to stand for the same things on Wednesday that he did on Monday, regardless of what facts may have been revealed on Tuesday. All she has going against her here is economic reality.

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I was writing the same damn thing and you stole my thunder. Hillary's actual commitment to this stupid idea is evidenced by her action supporting it: nil!

Not every idea deserves backing and in particular dumb proposals should not be supported. Telling people that a POSSIBLE $16-$35 over the course of a summer is worthy of taking up Congressional time is idiotic. Senator Clinton can choose to ignore what most major economists are saying about this proposal but that doesn't mean everyone else in Congress should, as well.

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I can easily save $50 over the course of 3 months by buying $10 less in groceries each month or $2.50 a week or not renting movies or drinking tap water instead of soda by mowing my lawn every other week instead of every weekend or eating in instead of eating out once a week.

When the tax is reinstated it will raise prices at the same time demand for home heating fuel (aka diesel) will impact overall demand. I for one cannot wait until next January when many people will see $100+ rise in their home heating costs over the year before because drivers needed to save $30 over the course of the entire summer.

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And of course what know one is pointing out, even all the renowned economists that think that Hillary's plan is worthless, is the fact that her approach would save Billionaires the same thirty dollars in gas taxes as it would forJoe Six Pack. How absurd is that approach to supposedly alleviating the economic woes of the working class!

Dude, drive 55!

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Silly analysis, dude. 1. I have yet to hear from a single economist who thinks that is a good response to the issue.

2. On a 15 gallon tank, you save less than $3. So a fillup will be $51 not $54. Big whoop!

3. The odds of getting a new windfall oil profits tax passed through the House and Senate in an election year? Less than zero. Which Dem is going to sponser the "new taxes" that come with this deal? And if it is such a great idea, then why doesn't Hillary go back to Washington and sponsor the new tax bill? Because I can see the ads from McCain: "she tried to start raising new taxes before she even got into office. So what will she do as president?"

Not only is the plan a gimmick, but even PROPOSING something that will NEVER be adopted is an effort to bamboozle and hoodwink the Indiana voters!

George -

I am not going to talk about supply and demand a lot of folks here have done that quite well. Let's just discuss getting the policy through Congress and then signed. In order for this happen it has to happen in 25 days, which means Hillary or John McCain need to get this legislation written now. Then they have to get Bush to sign it, do you really think that is going to happen? Now, take away the fact that in the long run it won't save consumers much, if anything and take away the fact when this very issue came up in Hillary's NY Senate race she thought is was a terrible idea and was against it. When a politician propose a policy that has absolutely no chance of happening and they know it, I think it's safe to say they are pandering and doing something for their benefit and not the voters.

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