Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Obama's Closing Arguments: Five Points To Victory
The results of the Democratic primaries last night leave virtually no doubt that Barack Obama will be the Democratic Presidential nominee. Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania gains were completely cancelled with Obama's 232,000-vote win in North Carolina and his 22,000-vote loss in Indiana. According to CNN, Obama currently stands 189 delegates away from the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination. With the candidates expected to split the six remaining primaries, Obama figures to take about half of the 217 remaining pledged delegates. Using that projection, Obama would stand roughly 75-85 delegates away from the magic number.
Clinton is down to fighting for Florida and Michigan. However, it's well known that the best way to beat a fighter is to take away what he does best. Clinton is best when she feels she has some principle she can fight for. This article lays out what I see as the five-point way to take the fight out of Clinton, and bringing the nomination process to a harmonious close.
By most counts, Obama has a total delegate lead in the neighborhood of 150 delegates. The difference between now and three weeks ago is that Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana are all off the table. You can almost see Howard Wolfson and Geoff Garin putting out a classified: "Game-Changers Wanted. Apply Immediately."
Clinton has virtually no metric left to use in her favor. Pledged delegates? Out of reach since Super Tuesday. Superdelegates? Stephen King wrote a book about her edge in that department. It's called "Thinner". Popular vote? Outta here. States won? Exit stage left. Big states? Irrelevant in a primary. Therefore, Obama has the luxury of being magnanimous in several ways, while still showing a fighting spirit that will reassure voters of his grit.
Here is what I believe Obama should do.
(1) Focus on John McCain. Obama, being firmly ahead in the nomination battle now, should take some time in his speeches to make voters fully aware of the huge policy differences between himself and McCain. Maybe even more importantly, Obama should absolutely talk about the horrific policy insight (or lack thereof) that McCain has demonstrated. No need to get personal - just quoting McCain's words, as the DNC's recent ads have so effectively done, should get the message across. Rapid and withering response to any Republican shots is a must at this point.
(2) Speak with great kindness and respect for Hillary - but press the case against her. Obama should talk positively about Clinton's strengths on the stump. There's nothing wrong with hitting the high points of Clinton's recent populist reincarnation. <strong>He should continue to state why his policies are better, and talk about his "high road" campaign strategy. But there's no need to run "low road" commercials anymore.
(3) Agree to a 50% reduction of Florida's delegation - RIGHT NOW. This is where investing nomination capital enters the picture. Obama should agree to use the January voting results and count Florida immediately, with a 50% reduction in the state's delegation. This has already been proposed by Florida, and the Clinton campaign would have absolutely no logical argument to decline it.
The downsides to this idea are twofold. First, Obama could be seen as backing down from a principled stand in favor of the DNC rules. (This concern gets addressed later.) Plus, his lead would shrink by about 19 delegates. However, the upside is absolutely enormous. Clinton's argument for continuing the race would only stand on one VERY shaky Michigan leg. Relations with Florida voters would improve immediately. Finally, Obama would be able to say, "Look - I want us to come together too, and I'm not interested in disenfranchising anyone." (I hate to use the word "disenfranchise" here, as it's really misapplied when talking about a primary election. However, it's a popular talking point, so he should go with it.
(4) Roll out superdelegates immediately. According to Mr. Super (who has a must-read site), most superdelegates are undeclared rather than undecided. If this is true, then get at least enough out there to take the lead in superdelegates. This will emphasize not only Obama's mounting strength, but will also feed the perception of inevitability. This will, in turn, drive up Obama's poll and fundraising support.
(5) Do not compromise one inch on Michigan, unless it's a 50-50 delegate split. This point is about enhancing Obama's stance as a strong and principled leader. There are many reasons why Florida and Michigan are completely separate situations. The most compelling distinction, though, is that Michigan's January primary was deemed unconstitutional by the state's Supreme Court. Despite the brave faces put on by people like Lanny Davis and Kiki McLean, it's brutally obvious to even the most casual of obsevers that Michigan will get the Soup Nazi treatment ("Come back, four years! NEXT!") from the DNC.
There was a recent proposal by Michigan to seat their delegates with a 10-delegate edge to Clinton. Obama could probably afford even this compromise. However, I firmly believe he should press the case as I've outlined to the media and to superdelegates. The argument is simple and most compelling - you don't recognize illegal elections, period. Clinton has no effective rejoinder. Superdelegates will give VERY short shrift to the notion of dragging this out to Denver based on Michigan alone.
So, there's my brilliant, world beating, genius strategy. (Just to be clear, that was snark.)
Obviously, Plouffe, Axelrod and company don't need help in winning elections. But the Clintons are never to be underestimated. Obama's advantage over Clinton must be pressed home in no uncertain terms, and this path would leave him looking even more Presidential in the bargain.











Post a Comment