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Obamanites: Chill out! Hillary won't go all the way to the convention ... unless
I wish Obama supporters would just chill out in their feverish attacks on Hillary Clinton. Doesn't anyone get what she's doing? It's really very obvious. She's going to keep campaigning until June 3, the last Democratic primary. She's going to make her best case for the seating of Florida and Michigan delegations, and she will probaby end up with a compromise that will certainly not change the outcome of the election.
She's doing so, in good measure, with the blessing and support of many of her supporters who do, in fact, account for nearly half of the Democratic voters. She is doing so because hers is a historic campaign, and her supporters are grieving a painful loss. She is waging a campaign worthy of a fighter concerned to ratchet up the most powerful position she can possibly have, in order to have some semblance of control over the future of the Democratic party.
Yes, it's true that she's making a strong case for seating Florida and Michigan, and dismissing the Obama supporters who care more about selectively enforcing party rules than about winning two swing states in the fall. But she has also effected a "cease fire" on truly damaging attacks on Obama.
So let her campaign. Let her make the case to voters.
By early June, Obama will have the delegates he needs to claim a victory. She will suspend her campaign some time probably in mid-June, no matter what she says now about taking her campaign all the way to the convention. Don't take her literally. She needs to make the threat because she needs to get the media to pay attention to her campaign. And in just a few weeks the whole primary race will be over.
Let it happen. Don't get so wound up and angry. Take a deep breath. Your raving anti-Clinton antics are hurting the Democrats as much as, or more than, the very understandable tactics of Clinton herself.
I think there's only two scenarios where the Democratic race goes all the way to the convention.
One: If Obama can't persuade enough superdelegates to declare their support for him in June, then he will not hit the "magic number" he needs to win the race. Uncommitted superdelegates are the only ones responsible if the race goes to the convention. Instead of attacking a candidate who is barely relevant, why don't you focus your energy on persuading these superdelegates to declare their support in June?
Two: If Obama hits the "magic number", but fails to negotiate in good faith with Hillary for her to suspend her campaign. If she makes some reasonable requests from the nominee -- e.g., a prime time speaking spot at the convention; a promise to work for change to the Democratic primary rules, especially caucuses, for the future; etc. -- and Obama blunders the diplomacy, then Hillary might just take the race to the convention out of spite. Reportedly, Obama wasn't able to convince John Edwards to support him before the Texas contest because he didn't work for it and Edwards balked. If Obama's diplomacy skills aren't adequate to persuade Hillary to endorse him, then that will be a worrisome failure indeed.
So if you have confidence in Obama's diplomacy skills, and confidence that superdelegates will do what's in the party's best interest, then relax. The race will soon be over.












Comments (47)
Oh dear.
May 22, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, I think that's a factual statement. Just because I support Obama doesn't mean I have to support the hysterical Obamanite reaction to Hillary's efforts to seat Florida and Michigan delegations. There's going to be a compromise, the delegates will be seated, and Obama will still win. Obama doesn't need those states to win, so why antagonize all those Democratic voters in Florida?
May 22, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your logic is uncommon among Obama supporters, Joe. I agree with much of what you posted with a difference here and there.
One point I would make even more strongly is that Clinton is doing the party a favor (while pushing her candidacy at the same time) in trying to get FL & MI seated. It's a chance to undo the monumentally stupid move by the DNC to strip those two states of their votes in the nomination process. It's time to correct that mistake.
May 23, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The plan from the start was for the Candidate who won to seat the delegations from MI and FL as a magnamous gesture. Hillary's grandstanding on this issue is the only thing preventing them from being seated. In the end they will be seated and Obama will win any way. The Clinton lies that she has won the popular vote and that seating them will change the outcome is preventing them from being seated, and she knows it.
May 23, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I fail to see how anything Clinton is doing that keeps them from being seated. Can you explain how she is keeping them from being seated? Thanks.
May 23, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rec'd. I normally agree with just about everything Josh Marshall says, but I think his "Toxic" post this morning was a bit on the alarmist side.
I see the importance of the issue, and I see that Hillary is trying to use it as leverage.
Still, I don't see that the issue is going to give her the kind of traction she would need. I mean, the governor of her own state has replied by saying that this sounds a bit "desperate."
Folks, we've won. We need to pause, pour a drink, put on some Steely Dan or New Pornographers or Usher (whatever the demographic case may be), and enjoy the long weekend.
May 22, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wish I could see things your way, Alex, but Hillary has stepped over a line with her remark about Bobby Kennedy's assassination. Hillary supporters at taylor marsh have been fantasizing about her as Obama's veep so that she can gain her rightful place when he is assassinated. Or so I've heard since I don"t inhabit that sphere.
My AA friends were worried about assassination when Obama first started talking about running and they were against it because of their fear. I've heard he has received threats. For someone like me who remembers exactly where I was and what I was doing the day JFK was killed and who sat in front of the television through the dramatic mourning period and furneral it is inconceivable that any person in Hillary's position would talk of assassination as she did. The woman is toxic.
May 23, 2008 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since Hillary is reminding me more and more every day of Dubya, I wonder how you can say that it should be Obama's diplomatic skills that are in question here. Hillary is the one who started out with an unbelievable lead in advantages: Name recognition, money, a popular ex-presidential spouse, and plenty of old-Washington insiders to help her along. She managed her campaign terribly, squandered her money and advantages by making stupid mistakes out of arrogance and pure bad judgement.
Obama doesn't owe her anything! She owes the party big time! She can either step up to the plate and honestly encourage her followers to support Obama or she can lose the last vestiges of crediblity that she has left (of which there is precious little).
She could have done all this after super Tuesday and she would be a respected and revered party elite. She is nothing more than a shrill, lying, whiney victim at this moment; it is up to her to turn it around. It is not Obama's job to resurect her image.
He has to play it easy so he won't infuriate her supporters; he has never insulted them as Hillary has insulted Obama supporters (and everyone else who understands math). That is not the same as kissing her ass. He seems to realize this. I hope he does.
May 22, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm more concerned that if Hillary were to become VP, she'd make her office a Cheney-style vice-presidency: a branch unto itself, undisclosed locations, hunting trip accidents, etc.
May 23, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
and not to mention he will have to watch his back constantly...
May 23, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
and now that Hillary has spoken of the RFK assassination, Obama has even more reason to watch his back... Hillary is Hubert Humphrey and McCain is Richard Nixon....
May 24, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
The vice president has only the power that the president gives her. If she is the VP Obama should bar her from the Whitehouse.
May 23, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
What do you mean by this?
As an Obama supporter, I am not aware of any SELECTIVITY about enforcing party rules. Could you point out rules that were broken that we don't want enforced? Please don't go into the things that have already been refuted; the states that got waivers, etc. Thank you.
Right. You mean like comparing Obama's win in the primary delegate count vs her (fake) popular vote superiority to Dubya winning over Gore in 2000 when he lost the popular vote? That isn't damaging to people who listen to her and believe the lies she spouts?
Her fake cease-fire is too late. She should go and run for President of West Virginia if she wants to. Too bad she really has no respect for that demographic, per her Camp David comments. She is the exact thing that Obama is running against. I hope she will just go anywhere and point, point clap clap her way into infinity.
May 22, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
CVille Dem: Well, I hope Obama doesn't take the attitude you did when you said
Obama won by running a terrific, smart campaign against a formidable opponent who made some major strategic errors. And in the end, the result is virtually a TIE. Historically, this sort of situation means that the putative nominee DOES owe the 2nd place finisher something. A little ass kissing probably would have got Obama the Edwards endorsement prior to Texas. A little ass kissing with Hillary after June 3 could make or break the general election race.May 22, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to kiss ass?
Did you really say that?
May 22, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would think planting one anywhere on Hillary would be the equivalent — on multiple levels.
May 23, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry I don't agree. I don't think he needs to kiss anyone's ass, especially not Hillary's. And I resent the implication that his supporters care more about rules then the election.
You seem to miss the part where Hillary is purposely inflaming her supporters to the point where they are actively campaigning against Obama with the lie that she has the popular vote, that the race is somehow close, that he is the reason that Fl and MI votes are not be counted.
I want a President who can stand up to bullies not be intimidated by them. I want a President who will not negotiate with someone using negative tactics in order to gain some advantage with supporters who will probably not vote for him at this point no matter what he does.
May 22, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo
May 22, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. Not a tie. Not even close. It hasn't been close for months.
This is a race for delegates, and Obama has been uncatchable on pledged delegates for two months. The notion that this is a virtual tie is one of the disingenuous talking points that has caused me to lose respect for Clinton.
May 23, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not agree that the fact of a close contest means Obama must choose Clinton as his running mate. A win is a win. He has won. He should pick the best person for the job.
Given the way she has campaigned against him this season, it's hard to imagine a worse "mismatch" for his style and philosophy towards politics.
It would depress me if he were to choose her. On the other hand, I am open to changing my mind if Obama thinks it is the right thing to do.
May 23, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
CVille Dem: You said
Hmmm... I haven't read up on the Clinton talking points, so I'm sure there's a better response to your question. I'm referring to the often stated point that there a few states (New Hampshire jumping ahead of Nevada) that moved their primary dates without authorization, in contravention of party rules, but those states weren't punished. If I'm relying on bad information, I will gladly stand corrected.Yes. I think that's a fair argument that is not a direct attack on Obama. It's basically an argument about rules and math. So I think Hillary is holding to her "cease fire" just fine. Now any day she could come out with some stuff on Rev. Wright or Bittergate or "Obama isn't qualified to be commander in chief", or what have you and I'll be the first to say she's broken the cease fire. But arguing about math at this point is fine, in my book.May 22, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I pledged to chill out about the MI and FL issue. So just FYI, the four-states referred to in the four-state agreement are Iowa, NH, South Carolina, and Nevada. These states were designated by the DNC to hold their primaries before all others. MI and FL defied the DNC, moved their primaries up, and as a result, the DNC stiffened the penalty and ruled that they would lose all their delegates.
Some of the first four states received permission to adjust their primary dates slightly as long as they remained among the first four states to hold primaries.
Understand? It was all about making sure Iowa, NH, south carolina and Nevada went first.
May 22, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am a fervent Obama supporter with little affection to waste on the Clintons, but ... this is one of the best posts I have read about the situation we find ourselves in now.
This is grown up politics now. Whether you like her or not, Clinton brings a big pile of chips to the table in Denver. Those chips represent nearly half of our party. If Obama is going to live up to his promise, he's going to have to deal. If he can't do that then he is not the politician I hope he is.
May 22, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't about Obama and Clinton.
It's about Clinton and the DNC.
May 22, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll rephrase that.
It's about the DNC and the inner politics of the DLC.
What is being done to slowly purge the DLC from the Democratic Party. Send them the way of the WHIGs
May 22, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
May 22, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I think will happen is that we'll see a more Netroots sort of Liberal coalition in charge, less the DLC. Since the President is the leader of the party, and the DLC has more or less been the arbiter of that power since 1992, this will represent a shift in the power structure of the party.
I think Obama is being plenty diplomatic. It his supporters that are getting frustrated with a nomination contest that doesn't seem to be ever ending, and this outrageous sort of Nixonian/GOP-like stirring up of her follower's paranoia.
The best people to disarm in this case would be the Hillary supporters. They need to calm down and realize that she lost fair and square. Obama played by the rules and won by the rules. The sooner they relax and recognize that, the better.
May 23, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Comparing Florida to Zimbabwe and to Bush/Gore 2000 undermines the legitimacy of the entire process and any results derived from it. Ergo, if Obama wins the nomination, Hillary's supporters will still believe he is not the legitimate nominee. She has declared war on any outcome short of her coronation.
May 23, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I'm referring to the often stated point that there a few states (New Hampshire jumping ahead of Nevada) that moved their primary dates without authorization, in contravention of party rules, but those states weren't punished."
But the DNC chose not to punish those states. Good, bad or otherwise - that was the call the DNC made and those were the rules. If you have an example of Obama being selective in following rules (as you state above) then support it. But don't accuse him of being selective because he isn't following the the rules someone thinks should have been set.
Regardless, the time to have complained about those choices was before the contest began -- and certainly before names were signed on an agreement.
As for the "ass-kissing" -- that is exactly the kind of behavior I do NOT want to see in my President.
It was a contest. Hillary lost. She is owed nothing. If she isn't willing to do what she can to get Obama elected then she certainly doesn't have the dedication to the party that warrants her being the nominee.
May 23, 2008 2:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
The conversation here needs to overlap with the conversation on this other post:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/why-well-be-seeing-clinton-on.php
Read down a bit in the thread, because the consensus basically reverses itself.
The overall point I take away from both posts:This is definitely not going to the convention, and HRC is definitely not going to be on the ticket.
Joe's point about negotiation is really pretty mild, folks. I imagine Hillary will have a speaking slot at the convention; I also imagine that Obama would want her to have one. We don't want to give the impression that she's being frozen out.
May 23, 2008 2:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a smart piece on this subject from the Huffington Post:
For the article, click here.May 23, 2008 3:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
She wants to seat Florida and Michigan, as is, meaning 0 votes or delegates for Obama in Michigan.
This has nothing to do with caring about the rules over the voters, but trying to stop her from claiming 100% victory in Michigan.
May 23, 2008 4:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
The important thing to note, even if Hillary can somehow get all 111 delegates from FL and MI (highly, highly unlikely) she'll still lose! (that's 38 from Florida, minus Obama's, and all 73 from MI, without any "Uncommitted" counting)
Under this nightmare, worst case scenario, Obama would still be up by 75 delegates.
Again, MI and FL don't matter. What matters is what the Supers do, and until I see mass movement from Obama to Hillary, I'm not worried.
At all.
May 23, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rachel Maddow is always smart. But in this case I think she is wrong.
First, I think Hillary's superdelegates will defect if she tries it. There is no stomach in the Party for repeating '68.
Second, I think the media is capable of saying "outcome not in doubt," so that we effectively have a nominee, even if Hillary appeals MI/FL.
Third, on June 4 I think Nancy, Harry, and Howard will take the junior senator from NY to the woodshed and tell her that she's never getting a committee chairmanship again if she tries it.
We need to seat some delegates. But don't need to seat the results of both illegitimate elections, as-is.
May 23, 2008 7:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
There needs to be some sanction for trying to jump in line, otherwise the DNC effectively has no control over the primary calendar. So while Obama could afford to seat the full delegations as is in a magnanimous gesture, it would send the wrong message. Half sized delegations is a Republican idea I can get behind. Now if only we'd had the sense to do so from the get-go, then those elections actually could have meant something.
May 23, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excuse me, if this was a "CEASE FIRE", the Great Fire of Chicago must have just been a backyard barbecue.
She has been vindictive, petty and just plain awful in the last two weeks. Since her cease fire, she has said she was "taking this to the convention" has mentioned that this was like the civil rights movement, on and on and on.
I think it is almost over too, but the idea that Obama "OWES" Hillary anything, when she has done everything in her power to demean him is preposterous. "Not fit for office", "can be my VP", "white people" and when all that didn't fly because people JUST DID NOT LIKE HER OR HER IRAQ VOTE, she played the sexism card.
I think she has shot herself in the foot, and done a trememdous amount of damage to her and Bill's reputation forever.
As a woman, I never want to be compared to Hillary Clinton. I am ashamed of her behavior and expect more out of my child and got more out of my child when she was two years old.
It is time for Hillary to leave, not with the VP slot, but with a sincere apology to Obama and to all of us have supported her husband over the years and who never deserved the name calling and vindictive remarks she impailed on us.
I'll never vote for her for anything ever again.
May 23, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny that all those "feverish attack"-ers on that Aravosis link are the liberal blogosphere's finest. Atrios, Kos, Josh are people I highly respect. They all put up shop just to defend the Clintons from the smear machine and the corporate media. They discussed the taboo subjects throughout the Bush years, and they did so with honesty, courage, and the benefit of their extensive education. Now you refer to them as hysterical Obamites. Sigh.
May 23, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Joe, what's the harm in expressing dissent about the MI and FL thing?
May 23, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hate all the anti-caucus points coming out of the Clinton camp. Just because they've only won one (I think- Nevada?), doesn't mean that they are a bad way to pick a candidate.
The biggest upside to caucuses are that everyone leaves better informed about all candidates than when they arrived.
May 23, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another thing that is good about cacuses is that they test the leadership abilities of the candidates. A candidate must organize a group of followers and educate them about the particular rules in that state. It is a byzantine process and a candidate who does not plan ahead and organize fora cacus is in the same shape as a president who plans a war without planning an occupation.
May 23, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate the rather pragmatic tone of this post. I would also like to remind some of the Obama supporters who seem to forget it - that about HALF of the DEMOCRATIC primary voters voted for Clinton.
You may really, really, really dislike her for all kinds of reasons, but you can't really ignore that she has the support of about half the party's primary voters.
Even if you don't think Clinton is "owed" anything, surely these voters are "owed" some acknowledgement. Believe me, they are watching how this plays out.
May 23, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe has more faith in Senator Clinton than I do.
First, with regard to Michigan and Florida, both Obama and Clinton signed the "Four State Pledge" in which they agreed not to "campaign or participate" in the Michigan and Florida primaries. Honoring this Pledge not to "participate", Obama removed his name from the ballot. Dishonoring it, Clinton did not remove her name while claiming that removing it was a meaningless technicality since the election wouldn't count (Clinton: "I won. Psych."). She also "campaigned" in Florida (as defined in the Pledge). Now she seeks to have her dishonesty rewarded, and his honesty punished, by having the delegates from these two states distributed based on their "election results". The only reasonable way to seat the delegates from these two states is to split them 50/50. But out of pragmatism ("pragmatism" is not the same as "reasonableness"), Obama has offered to split the delegations in half and distribute them as suggested by the results.
This illustration of Clinton's mindset is just one of several indications that she will not make "reasonable" requests, such as those you laid out, but she has every intention of fighting all the way to the convention -- even if Obama "negotiates in good faith". The supers can commit before the convention, but they can't vote until they get there. In the meantime, she'll be doing everything possible to undermine the legitimacy of Obama's nomination. The Michigan and Florida issue is just one tool in her arsenal. If this tool is neutralized (it won't be unless she gets her way with the full delegations being seated with full voting rights based on "election results"), she'll pull out the "we're winning the popular vote" lie, and any other nonsense she can muster.
May 23, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're ahead clearly! The math does not lie, according to my predictions, the states that we didn't win do not count because they're full of atheist-commie-lib'ral-latte-elitists and do not represent the glorious white workers of this christian nation, so if you look at it correctly, We're winning by 100% FULL SPEED AHEAD TO THE WHITEHOUSE!
May 23, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama has won, then the Obama supporters get to act like winners. This means not coddling the extreme Hillary supporters to get their vote.
About 25% of any group is going to have far out ideas.
Remember that 25% of the US thinks GWB is doing okay or has no opinion on the matter.
And 20% of the US public think the Sun goes around the Earth.
It's time to treat the Clinton supporters as we did the Edwards supporters, with a friendly hand, but not with fear or clear resolve.
The train is leaving the station... no one should feel like it has to be held back. If you want on, hop onboard!
May 23, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have yet to find any statement by Clinton or any of her supporters that explains why, if it is so important to hear the voters in Michigan and Florida, her campaign agreed to shut them down last year. The more worked up she gets about comparing the DNC to the thugs in Zimbabwe (who are actually murdering people) the more hypocritical she and her supporters sound.
As to the negotiations, I think that Clinton has put Obama in a situation where he cannot accept her and Bill on the ticket (make no mistake, if you put her on you get him too) without looking incredibly weak, if she had truly ceased fire she might of had a chance of being on the ticket. Some pretty influential Obama supporters were signaling that Obama might have to accept her. I can't help but think she decided to burn up the party rather than take second. Fine, there is no law to stop her but I hope that if we get 4 years of Bush/McCain, every Democrat remembers this behavior in 2012.
BTW how is it brilliant for a campaign to neglect to plan for running beyond Super Tuesday? Sounds like "we'll be greeted as liberators to me.
May 23, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that Clinton has earned something, but what? What does she want?
A prime speaking spot at the convention? Sure. Losing candidates have traditionally gotten that.
VP? No, for a host of reasons that I'm not going to repeat here.
A plank in the platform? Go ahead. No one pays any attention to the platform anyway.
Senate Majority Leader? No.
Bottom line: Unless we know what it is she actually wants as ransom for her going away, it's an academic exercise.
May 23, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama supporters are so confident, they should enjoy the slow approach of inevitable victory for the primary.
As for the general election, he will definitely not be able to get all the Clinton votes.
Not all Clinton votes are from registered Democrats. Not all the Obama are either for that matter. Loyalty to a party will speak less to those unregistered voters who voted Clinton for feminist reasons. Particularly, since there is a minor party female candidate named McKinney who eclipses Obama in terms of outspokeness against the War in Iraq and in terms of Civil Rights activities.
This desire for a "female" candidate goes far beyond the person of Hillary Clinton. Some voters may adopt the strategy of "punishing" the guy who got in the way of the first president of the female MAJORITY. They may prepare the candidacy in 2012 of a stateswoman who is someone other than Clinton. This stateswoman may be taking notes on the Roves and the Axelrods of 2008 in order to make sure that those "boys" don't run her campaign into the ground with some well-marketed "sweetie"-pie.
May 23, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
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