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Obama-Clinton: The Democrats' Strongest Ticket?
When Hillary finally concedes the primary election, the Obama campaign will turn a laser-like focus to a single goal: getting Obama elected in November. If cold political calculation suggests that Clinton as VP would give him the most help, she will be chosen. No one - least of all in anyone in the Obama campaign - will suggest that any grudges from the primary season should stand in the way of maximizing Obama's chance of electoral success. The question, then, is whether she would be the VP candidate who would most help Obama.
Clinton's strongest positive is her talent for campaigning, particularly for her ability to counterattack. She could be the person to answer the Republican attack machine as it turns on Obama. One can imagine a campaign where Clinton and McCain engage in ever more vicious attacks and counterattacks, while Obama can stay above the fray, acting Presidential, promising (and delivering) a new kind of politics. Hillary is doubtless capable of truly knocking old man McCain completely off his bearings.
Clinton's negatives include her strong negative ratings with many voters, the baggage she carries from the past two decades in politics, and her unpredictable spouse.
Also, it is said that the one function a VP candidate serves, in the end, is to deliver her/his state for the ticket. NY is safely Democratic, so other candidates offer more to Obama in this regard.
However, considering how negative Presidential campaigns have become, Hillary's talent at attacking ruthlessly may end up being the determining factor for Obama campaign strategists.
Comments (12)
But what you're ignoring is the fact that *she'd*
be the focus of so many of attacks. I felt quite sick yesterday reading an article listing what the republican attack machine is preparing just against Obama. Add to that what they'll have as well if it's Clinton?
Stop for one moment and envisage the first question:
`Senator Clinton you said during the primary campaign that Senator McCain has the experience, Senator Obama just has a speech'
Response? Cackle! (everyone winces) `People say these sorts of things in a campaign - they're not *serious* (whatever)
And what do you have? Instant confirmation that Hillary Clinton can't be trusted - you can't believe one word that comes out of her mouth.
By suggesting she be the VP you're opening up the Democratic ticket not only to Obama's unfavourability rating but adding to it hers - which is constantly over 50% - and when she's just committed one of her corkers - around 55%.
What's needed is someone who can add strength to Obama without bringing a forkload truck full of negatives.
It's not a `dream` ticket at all - it's a ruddy nightmare!
(BTW I found it fascinating perusing those SUSA polls with altenative VEEPS how badly an Obama/Hagel ticket fared - I'd thought he might be a good choice - strong on defense experience, anti Iraq and bringing in a bipartisan factor.)
May 24, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fran, I disagree. If you look at the demographics both of them will be bringing to the ticket, then you have the WH completely nailed. I'm only against it for emotional reasons.
May 24, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If you look at the demographics both of them will be bringing to the ticket, then you have the WH completely nailed."
But what demographics? Remember how different a primary is to a general. It's crucial to distinguish why they voted as they did.
Many of the people who voted *for* Hillary (as opposed to *against* Obama) will still vote for him in the general: their policies are so similar. The people who voted against Obama will still vote against him in the general - having Hillary on the ticket as VEEP won't change their aversion to him. He has the African-Americans sewn up. He seems to have the Hispanics (58 Obama 35 McCain). The rabid women who are now furious with Obama will have to have got over it by November because a vote for McCain is a vote for a right wing Supreme Court. People who worry about him as C-in-C are not going to be swayed by Hillary as VEEP - she's not that strong on the subject as, say, a Powell or a Nunn would be.
Surely the only VEEP that can make any positive difference is one that doesn't carry with him/her strong negatives.
I can't believe Hillary could bring him the Appalachian voters who won't vote for him because he's `black`, `a muslim` or `Hussein`. Can you?
May 24, 2008 11:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really don't know what she can bring to the ticket. All the women I know hate her like poison, my mother, my sister, and all my friends, and we live in Pennsylvania!
May 24, 2008 11:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
It fared poorly regionally -- for example, in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where Rendell's name is well known, Rendell brought in much better numbers. But in New Mexico, where Hagel's name is better known, the Hagel ticket trumped all the others by very high numbers, beating even the hypothetical Edwards/Obama match up.
Have to remember how much of this is simply name recognition. There's no other reason the Edwards ticket brought in such good numbers in almost every instance. When the voting was real, Edwards didn't even carry his own state for Kerry.
May 24, 2008 8:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Fran for your comment, which part of me agrees with. I am totally schizo about this race. A year ago I loved Hillary. Now I love Obama, and every word Hillary says grates on me, because she is so transparently self serving, and has tried to tear down Obama in so many subtle and unsubtle ways.
I think things might look very different to all of us in a month or two. I hope.
May 24, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
:-)
Bear in mind David Gergen - he knows these people:
if Hillary's VP he'll need a foodtaster`
!!!
And to think he said that before yesterday's gaffe.
May 24, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
In my humble opinion (and simple common sense) Hilary should not be chosen - even if she gives Obama the best chance of winning in November.
Hilary is cold, calculated and driven and if she finds herself as the VP, she'd probably pay some "goon" to kill Obama, hence making her the president. I think she's that cold.
May 25, 2008 2:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that's unjustified. I think the Clintons will do their best to overcome an Obama administration. Bill hates Obama, hates the fact that a younger, more callow man is beating his wife (and, by inference, him), and both Clintons see Obama as so weak that they'd feel completely justified in trying to take over the administration.
I think they'd fail, but they'd screw things up so bad with leaks, gaffes, and opposing policy positions that the White House would look terrible. This might seem to them like a way for her to steal the nomination in 2012.
But let's stop talking about assassination. It's as irresponsible and ugly as Clinton's statement or miss-statement last Friday. Let's stop fearmongering amongst ourselves. Obama's about a no-fear presidency, so if you're supporting him get of the ugly express.
May 25, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Argh! Get off the ugly express. Typing lessons, anyone?
May 25, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Clinton's strongest positive is her talent for campaigning" ---- cough! cough! Excuse me, if the way she has campaigned in these primaries is a showcase for that "talent" ..........well, enough said. Aside from sheer dogged, unwavering (delusional?) determination (not unlike what we've had for the last 8 years), her campaign has been a disaster! She LOST the nomination.
Also:
-- Her kind of negativity would wind up creating sympathy for McCain. His policies may be the pits and his turn-about in making Bush his BFF may be disgusting, but he is quite frankly a much more likeable, authentic person that she is and one who, unlike her, has truly earned respect.
-- Her negatives are so high that she would really energize and turn out votes *against* the ticket.
-- Obama's making a purely calculated choice at this point, one that puts someone his supporters dislike and distrust 'one heartbeat away' and risks the chance that she could be in charge would quinch much of the strongest enthusiam and support for him. (I speak for myself here. If she had gone to him in Feb or early March and said "I'll stop now if you'll make me VP" it would have been easy to see the sense in accepting her --- gaining months more to focus on the general election and stopping the bloodletting within the party. But now...... it's way, way too late!)
-- anyway, her supporters would probably get outraged at the very thought of her being in a 'subservient' position ... and I'm not sure she would be able to keep herself in VP mode.
-- and David Gergen is a very intelligent, insightful person.
May 25, 2008 3:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
My general impression is that a slew of Democratic primary voters who supported Hillary could be swayed by McCain. Hillary may successfully have characterized her policies as liberal, but a lot of the non-primary white, high school educated, and under $50,000 income rural voters are the ones who could easily be convinced in the GE that the world is too scary to take a chance on actual change.
After the HRC campaign's recent antics, a lot of your average traditional Democrat will look askance at Hillary, wondering if she's actually the left-of-center skilled politician she claims to be. Most Dems won't peg her as racist, or think that she rubs her hands with glee at the prospect of harm coming to Obama. But her recent gaffes and Bill's influence seems likely to paint her as a liability, not an asset. I haven't added up all the demographic data, but having watched it for the past 3 months, this is my impression.
And I'm not talking about whether Obama wants her. I'm talking about projecting beyond the primaries, beyond when the real McCain fear-mongering starts. We say she (when paired with Bill) has more experience than Obama, but some of the other short-listed VP candidates have more than her.
When you add that to the clear power struggle we'll have within the administration between Obama and the Clinton powerhouse, it looks like a dicey idea.
May 25, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
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