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Obama Redrawing the Electoral Map: Poblano's Math Debunks Electibility Argument, Shows Upside of Movement Obama
http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/features/obama-over-the-top
"Poblano," the secret poll/ stat hobbyist, was more accurate than anyone May 6. His site, 538.com, is worth checking out.
He contends Clinton, not Obama, would beat McCain in FL, OH, AR, WV and Obama, not Clinton, would beat him in MI, WI, IA, CO, NM, NV, WA.
Clinton: WEST VIRGINIA 5, ARIZONA 10, OHIO 20, FLORIDA 27, NEVADA 5 Total=62
Obama: NEW MEXICO 5, IOWA 7, COLORADO 9 WISCONSIN 10 WASHINGTON 11 MICHIGAN 17 Total=64
Thats a 2 delegate advantage for Obama. A wash basically, but a debunking wash as it were (Im looking at you Terry "Baghdad Bob" McAuliffe!)
Whats exciting is the downticket prospects of the number of states (3 more) and districts an Obama presidency could help put in play.
And none of the above takes into account the GOTV campaign underway, which has some complicated calculations on 538, so I leave that analysis to better men, except to say it looks really exciting. Downtickets benefit from the additional GOTV efforts-HuffPo posits 1 million new volunteers (count me one)- as do other non-blue states potentially in play. Virginia, Texas, Im talking to you, you sexy wildcards!
All this adds to my thoughts on VP choices. Im not a fan of this one, but I had seen Sherrod Brown getting more press. And several women have been offered the spot, according to a mydd blogger with proclaimed airtight sources.
Thoughts?
Comments (5)
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
May 12, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty skeptical that Obama's offered anyone anything at this point.
Virginia is getting more and more blue--soon the Gov and both senators will be blue. Obama will do well there.
He's got a tricky job in the VP selection, he needs to pick someone who reifies his message yet isn't new. I don;t think it will be another Senator.
May 13, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not share the skepticism here.
I suspect Obama's campaign team has known all along who they would prefer to be the VP, should Obama secure a majority of delegates. This is the way Axelrod and Plouffe work. They have this buttoned down, no question.
Obama is trending Democratic. This is partly demographics, but it is also because of the hard work and inclusiveness of Virginian Democrats.
The VP selection is not so tricky, I think. I also agree that bringing another first term Senator to the ticket would not be wise.
May 13, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I glanced at the linked page, but I didn't really read it. The gist, I take it is that somebody takes polling data and does some math on it, so I'm going to caution that it's way too early for the polls to have a lot of meaning.
With that said, Obama hasn't been playing well in Florida, but that could change. FL and OH have been close for the past couple of cycles and NM has been a virtual tie for these same elections.
And, as I've commented a couple of times, here and there: If McCain were to pick Romney for his VP, then I see that as probably enough to push the extra over the edge for NM, NV and quite possibly CO.
Never mind that the candidates haven't yet highlighted their own differences, so we don't know to whom their messages will sound good, but there's also a lot of other factors which will need to be added to the equation. Of course, if your focus is simply on the Obama-Clinton race, then I guess this fellow's prognostications are probably better than a Magic 8-ball. Though, of course, you'd also have to wonder again about the benefit of the so-called unity ticket.
(If it were me and if I were thinking about the fall, then I'd stick more to the situation on the ground, rather than some equation about far-out polls)
May 13, 2008 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just glanced at your comment, didnt read it really, just sounded like self absorbed banter.
Yes the comparison Obama/ Clinton (cmon, try harder), no this post says nothing about sitting back and doing nothing- half the post is about being on the ground lol, unity tickets have disadvantages too, Poblano's model is well known, more accruate than the magic 8 ball, pundits, polls and Im betting you, but thanks for stopping by.
May 13, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
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