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Obama Blowouts
To put things in perspective, here is a review of past primaries and causcuses where Obama blew out Clinton.
State - Obama - Hillary
Idaho 82.2% 17.8%
Hawaii 76.2% 23.8%
District of Columbia 75.8% 24.2%
Alaska 74.6% 25.4%
Kansas 74.2% 25.8%
Washington 68.4% 31.6%
Georgia 68.1% 31.9%
South Carolina 67.6% 32.4%
Minnesota 67.4% 32.6%
Colorado 67.3% 32.7%
Illinois 66.3% 33.7%
Virginia 64.2% 35.8%
North Dakota 62.6% 37.4%
Mississippi 62.2% 37.8%
Maryland 61.9% 38.1%
Wyoming 61.9% 38.1%
Louisiana 61.7% 38.3%
Vermont 60.6% 39.4%
Posted with 4% West Virginia results reported.
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Comments (70)
I didn't remember all that. Thanks.
May 13, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately Tonny left out that most of the big wins are in caucuses, not primaries - Idaho, Alaska, Colorado, Washington, Kansas, Hawaii, Minnesota....
Determining popular support in those states based on caucus turnout is simply irrational.
It's a shame the elections in November won't be caucuses.
May 14, 2008 4:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Again, you drop a piece of disinformation and move on.
Historically, caucus results are as much of a determiner of general results as primary results are, which is to say, not at all. The general is completely different type of election. By your criteria, no democratic primary wins count (caucus or primary) since they don't have any bearing on the general election.
In the reality-based world, we look at much more than HUGE wins by HUGE margins in MULTIPLE states. We look at that pesky thing called turnout, which is generally lower in the primary than the general. We notice that in a HUGE handful of red states the democrats had more than twice the turnout as republicans.
In Idaho, well before the republican nomination was decided, Barack had more votes than all the republicans combined. Same in Virginia, though that was a later primary. All those "red" states that went to Barack by HUGE numbers are fully in play for November.
Why? Turnout.
As long as Hillary Clinton is no where near the democratic ticket, most die-hard republicans stay home while the moderates and independents vote for Barack Obama. Add a woman governor to the ticket, just about any woman, or an old white dude with military and/or foreign policy experience, just about any old white dude, and we have a potential for a 50 state victory, something no one has come near to since Reagan in 1984.
Are you here on behalf of the RNC or the DLC?
May 14, 2008 8:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
PS: The old white dude would need to understand that he is a single term VP to be replaced with a second term female VP who will carry on post Obama.
May 14, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Primaries are much more reflective of a party's and candidate's performance in a general election than caucuses are.
May 14, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
What do you base this opinion on? Can you point to a study of some sort, because common sense says otherwise.
The general is an open election, so really a Caucus is more reflective of every American's opinion, not just the 40% who are democrats. The most reflective of primary-style races are the ones that are open as well, which Barack mostly won by huge margins.
Hillary won in mostly democratic-leaning states with closed primaries. That is not at all reflective of the general election.
May 14, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess Desidero had no response for that. Being from a caucus state I can say that our caucus was on a Saturday whereas our other elections are on weekdays so the scheduling argument is moot. There were people there of all ages but most were not particularly young. Most probably between 35 - 55 with a fair amount older and very few younger. Each person wrote in their choice and you could then leave with that vote casted and noted as unchanged or stay to participate in the caucus. So you didn't need to stay around for any length of time either once it started. I think that whole "caucuses don't count" argument is baloney.
May 14, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Idaho, Alaska, Colorado, Washington, Kansas, Hawaii, Minnesota....
Your "..." is North Dakota. That's all. 8 of the 18 were caucuses. Not most.
May 14, 2008 8:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
and Wyoming, not including Maine & Nebraska & Guam that aren't listed there. I'd hoped not to have to itemize every singel one, which is why I used ...
May 14, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry but... Wyoming IS there.
May 14, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You said, "Unfortunately Tonny left out that most of the big wins are in caucuses, not primaries - Idaho, Alaska, Colorado, Washington, Kansas, Hawaii, Minnesota...."
and then said "and Wyoming, not including Maine & Nebraska & Guam that aren't listed there. "
We are talking blowouts. Wyoming, Maine & Nebraska are off topic. Yes there are other caucuses wins, but this thread is about blowouts. The only state caucus in the "list of blowouts" at the top of the thread was North Dakota. 8 of those were caucuses and 10 were primaries.
May 14, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Coorection: The only other state listed above that is was a caucus is North Dakota.
May 14, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wyoming was in the poster's list so I referenced it.
May 14, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am the poster, and you're right about Wyoming. So it 9 states and 9 caucuses.
May 14, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
9 states primaries and 9 state caucuses.
May 14, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I'm not mistaken, the estimated popular votes in most of the state caucuses were not blowouts. I believe there were some areas where Clinton actually led in the popular vote but lost throught the caucus process.
May 14, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most the fairly estimated popular vote counts in caucus states were not blowouts. The caucus process exaggerates the vote count. There were some areas where Clinton actually won the popular vote but lost the caucus. Getting, say, 26% in a caucus may not be that bad in relation to the popular vote. BUt not being able to get more than 26% of a popular vote could signal some real problems.
May 14, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
*&^#@%* innernetz! It gave me an error indicating it couldn't post. Oh well.
May 14, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually they were all blowouts. In Nevada, Hillary one the popular vote and Obama got more delegates, but Neveda is not mentioned here. It was too close to be part of this "blowout" thread.
May 14, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
None of these numbers reflect what will happen in the general. For instance even though Barack lost California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York, he is now leading McCain in all those states, in the current polls.
May 14, 2008 3:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
RCP has noted that estimating the popular vote from caucus results can be very inexact. But polls and surveys have shown that in most of the caucuses, the final result is wildly skewed from the estimated pop vote. I was referrig to maost caucus states not being the blowouts they appear (of course, he has had a few).Form TalkLeft today:
I agree that the GE is still a guessing game. But a few electoral estimates I've seen look iffy for Obama as it stands right now compared to Clinton.
May 14, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed. Then why is the Clinton campaign using caucus votes in their popular vote calculations?
I guess it's all about whatever logic works for you, right?
May 14, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely correct about the results of cacuses not reflecting a candidates level of popularity among the general population. It is much more representative of the candidates leadership skills. It is to bad that Clinton lacks the skill to organize her followers to navigate the rules of a complicated process like signing in at a cacus.
May 14, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
**Caucuses seem so much more REAL as a demonstration of one's commitment. I don't know why they wouldn't count for MORE!
May 14, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your point that many of the wins are caucuses is well taken, but a well-run HRC campaign would not have found itself needing statements like that to take the sting out of multiple lopsided defeats inflicted by the better-organized and more intelligently run Obama campaign, which focused on winning delegates (the real currency of the process) and as a bonus, ended up winning the popular vote 'contest' as well as more states than the arrogant HRC entitlement-based strategy could deliver.
If running a campaign is any test, Obama is far more suited to the presidency than HRC is.
Now, may I suggest that you take a break? It sounds on the many threads here like you're beyond desperate in your idolatry of the flawed HRC.
May 14, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only states that count are the swing states, however.
At least according to Hillary tonight.
May 13, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
My wife and I are Obama delegates to the Colorado State Convention this Saturday. Besides the delegates to the National convention, we will be electing an add-on delegate. With 2/3 of the vote we'll probably pick Federico Pena as our Obama add-on.
May 14, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please do a post about your convention experience! Someone posted one in here before and it was a great read.
May 14, 2008 12:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only states that count are those that voted with a majority for Hillary Clinton. The other states just do not understand that she is entitled to be president.
May 14, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
If we believe her, there was really no reason to have all of those other primaries. We could just settle on the nominee by having one primary, in West Virginia.
May 14, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only states that count are West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas. You know, the important states. Nothing else counts. Because it's not as important.
May 13, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOW YOU HAVE IT. FINALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
May 13, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Michigan and Florida. Don't forget, we can't possibly have a convention without delegates from all 50 states. Unless we want to discount a few states that actually have a lot of democrats and are therefore not "swing states."
Thank you for posting this list! It's easy to forget everything that has happened... it's been a looooong primary...
May 13, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
AM, you're so right. MI and FL--yes, yes! We mustn't discount the will of the voters in ANY state. My God! Doesn't everyone understand there would be hell to pay if we did that?
Oh...except we mustn't count caucuses at all. Those disenfranchise people. So we should discount Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming, because it would be unfair to Hillary to consider results from states using the inferior, disenfranchising, caucus-style measure of voters' will to determine who actually won the Democratic Party's nomination. It's a shame--there's just no way to measure the popular vote, which is the only legitimatemeasure of voters' will, in those caucus states.
It should be obvious to everyone that the time has come, right in the middle of the 2008 primary contest season, to challenge the terribly unfair, long-established so-called metric (leader in delegates--'pledged' and 'super-') for determining who wins the Democratic Party's nomination.
We can't let Obama get away with stealing this nomination from Hillary by simply getting to the total, 'magic' number of delegates first. It would just be...unfair!
May 14, 2008 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only states that are important are the ones Hillary wins!
May 13, 2008 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
ARGH!
OBAMA MAY HAVE HIS BLOW OUTS.
BUT WENCH HILLARY DOESN'T BLOW.
JOBS ARE HER KEY!
STONED AND CONFUSED THESE DAZE.
UPON THE RIVERRUN.
ACQUIRE! MERGE! MARAUD! DILUTE! DILUTE!
ARGH!
May 13, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I think blowing was Monica'a job...
May 14, 2008 6:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh snap!
May 14, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who is Obama blowing?
May 13, 2008 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary. Out of the water.
May 14, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well done, sir!
May 14, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
E see se, Ayotunde.
May 14, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good poem, Pirate Pete.
And I think Obama is very softly blowing Hillary's paper boat out of the water.
May 14, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh and the "I won the primary, so I win the GE" is stupid logic. It's a whole different ball game. ESPECIALLY in red states.
Voter turnout also doesn't say anything, since mccain voters didn't bother to show up once it was clear he was nominated.
But you'll see them come out of every corner, come November!!!
May 14, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with everything but the turnout prediction. As long as Hillary is no where near the ticket, many die-hard republicans stay home and Barack picks up disgruntled moderates and independents. The earlier primaries and caucuses had super low turnout for republicans, in most states it was two and three to one in favor of dems. I have a feeling the American people will give Barack a true mandate in November, unlike the fake one Baby Bush claimed in 2004.
May 14, 2008 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're cute.
Would you like to go out for a troll spam sammich and a cold buffenbarger later?
May 14, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was meant for the "Coloured European Observer".
May 14, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just noticed something. All of those 18 primaries you listed where Obama did so well were before the "bitter/cling" comments and the Jeremiah Wright scandal broke. That should give you something to think about. It should give us all something to think about.
May 14, 2008 2:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you forget post-cling and post-Wright North Carolina, dear.
May 14, 2008 6:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
and Indiana.
May 14, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
**Are y'all forgetting about North Carolina? And he DID almost win Indiana. Oregon will most likely make you feel better.
May 14, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
But wait, I heard Obama would be a better president because up through Super Tuesday he'd run a better campaign. You mean we can't just assume he'll be a super President?
May 14, 2008 4:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
So bitter and illogical for one so young.
May 14, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
"And I assure you, I know American and world history far, far better than you dumb fucks : )"
Is this what passes for intellect where you come from? Or just limited language skills.
May 14, 2008 6:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're talking about a poster (AKA Milorad/Mila/etc.) who spells school as "skool". Do you really need to ask?
May 14, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Big wins in small states don't count. Unless the small states are West Virginia and Kentucky.
May 14, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember gcmartinez? he used to post here but now has turned cranky Hillary fan. Over at Corrente he was trying to argue that WV and KY will make the most informed decisions and therefore correct ones because they've seen more of the candidates. I kid you not.
May 14, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Problem with that logic is that Oregon's being held at the same time, so KY is cancelled out, and WV is superseded. I suppose that leaves Montana and the last of the Dakota's, so their heads will be positively swelling with information.
May 14, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama won Idaho by 64.4%
Now THAT'S what I call a blowout, baby.
May 14, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please add Wisconsin to that list. Obama won my Badger State by 17 percent, capping his 11 straight streak. That is a blowout.
May 14, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think tonnyb used a figure of 20% to define "blowout". If he went to 17%, he'd probably have to add more than just Wisconsin. ;)
May 14, 2008 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
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