So last night's results went pretty much as expected: Clinton won Kentucky by 35 points, and Obama won Oregon by 16. Between the two, Clinton nets a small pledged delegate pickup, but Obama crosses 50% of the pledged delegate total (excluding Florida and Michigan, as per the current DNC ruling).

The race is still  de facto over, but not de jure over: Obama's pledged delegate lead is now about 150, and he's shifted from trailing in superdelegates to a small lead. As has been clear since Wisconsin, if not earlier, Clinton cannot be able to pass Obama in pledged delegates, and neither candidate can get a majority of delages without superdelegate support. And on that front, Obama has slowly but consistently been gaining relative to Clinton since Super Tuesday in February,  turning a deficit of over 100 superdelegates then into a lead of about 30 now.

What is striking to me, though, is how little the race has changed since Clinton failed to deliver a knockout on Super Tuesday. Despite Rev Wright, "bittergate", the gas tax holiday, and all the other "issues" of the primaries since then, Clinton has routed Obama where she expected she would, and Obama has won big where he was expected to win big. Even the close states like Texas and Indiana haven't really been surprises. Hillary clearly appeals much more strongly to working class white voters, in Appalachia, while Obama wins that vote from Wisconsin  out west. Obama continues to pull almost all of the African-American vote, while Senator Clinton's strongest demographic remains white women older than 50.

It make's no sense for Hillary to drop out now - at a minimum she
should stay in the race through the June 3rd primaries in South Dakota
and Montana. She's argued that all voters should have thier say, and
she's certainly entitled to campaign vigorously through then.


As we reach the end of the primaries, each candidate has a large, committed block of support. Obama's has been a little larger overall, but the schedule, with late contests in states like WV and Kentucky that strongly favor Hillary, perhaps gives her the appearance of more momentum. Certainly her campaign would (and should, since they're trying to play their hand as best they can) spin it that way.

It's been a close contest, but one which Obama will clearly win.