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Not going to the mat? What makes YOU so smart?
Most readers here at TPM seem to be under the impression that this nomination fight will end long before August. Until recently I counted myself among them.
Now, however, I am not so sure. Despite assurances from Speaker Pelosi that she would "step-in", I can't help but wonder:
1) What reason, if any, do people offer that Senator Clinton will concede even after Senator Obama attains a majority of committed delegates?
Presumably, she will not need anywhere near as much funding since the actual voting will be over, so the "money" argument rings a bit hollow. Anything other ideas out there?
2) Under what mechanism can Speaker Pelosi exercise her statement that she will "step-in" to end things?
Does she plan to cut off DNC funding for Senator Clinton's senatorial re-election campaign? I don't know of any way she can force a conclusion to the nomination prior to August. Does anyone else?
I, for one, am starting to think there is no way this thing doesn't go to Denver. Please prove me wrong (any way you can would be gladly accepted!)
Thanks!
Comments (11)
Sorry know political prognostications today.
My crystal ball finally crashed after 5 months of above factory spec use. Not to mention it wasn't getting much right lately ( software glitch) So it is presently out having a major overhaul.
May 29, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happens to the fund raising once the primary season is over? The trick for Hillary will be to stay relevant and in the news and in order to do that she'll need to spend money. Unless of course she uses her 527's to raise money and keep stoking the feminist fires. However once Obama reaches the delegate finish line, the party is supposed to rally around it's choice and maybe Pelosi will crack the whip on Clinton super delegates to get in line behind Obama (if they don't do so willingly out of tradition). Of course Hillary and Co can promise money if that's the only weapon in Pelosi's arsenal.
Hillary will of course threaten a independent run unless she is allowed to do what she wants. And what she wants is to take it to the convention, and once the convention happens, if that doesn't force her way onto the Obama ticket she'll probably make an independent run, because her political career will be over anyways and Bill will probably get big money from his Middle Eastern money men for handing McCain the election (because these money men have probably bought influence from McCain).
May 29, 2008 4:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yikes. Your description is even worse than anything I had imagined.
Thanks (I think). Please understand when I say here's to hoping you're wrong. :)
May 29, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
On an aside, I am not certain this helps:
Under my presumptive scenario, Senator Obama has already achieved a majority of committed delegates, but Senator Clinton refuses to concede anyway. So it is unclear how Speaker Pelosi bringing pressure to get more SDs to go for Obama will necessarily change the dynamic much, if at all.
May 29, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a game of perception. If Hillary was down 500 dels, it would be infinitely more difficult for her to go on teevee without being constantly asked, "how do you plan to win, Senator?".
The point isn't that she has no answer for that (cuz she doesn't), the point is that she doesn't get asked.
May 29, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
IIOOII: You are right. This is going to the convention. At this point, it is extremely hard to stop Hillary.
As long as she is a "few" (hundred) delegates behind, her claims do not seem obviously laughable to ill-informed people (and that includes almost everyone). After the primaries, she needs almost no money. The only thing she needs is for the media not to ignore her. And we know it's in the media's best interest not to ignore her.
So basically the only way to stop her would be a revolt of her delegates, super or not. If hundred or two delegates switched to Obama, it would become clear that HMS Hillary not only hit an iceberg but is, in fact, rapidly sinking.
I don't think enough delegates will switch to make a difference.
Re independent run - let Hillary threaten. If the Dem party gives in to extortion, it becomes a joke. A party like that does not deserve to win. If Hillary wasn't bluffing, things would get mighty interesting. I don't think she would find willing financiers for an indie run, but I could be wrong about that. An independent run for Hillary might mean a major realignment... but more likely it would be the end of her political career (better late than never, I'd say).
May 29, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, Codegen.
That is an interesting thought - namely that if "enough" of her delegates revolt she will finally be forced to close up shop.
I do agree that perhaps once some sort of critical mass is attained, virtually *all* her delegates (save the obvious untouchables like Ickes, McCauliffe, etc.) would abandon her.
The killer question - as you indicate - is how much constitutes "enough"?
If she ultimately decides to go down the road to the convention, it is not immediately clear to me how it doesn't become an all-or-nothing proposition for her. Either win the nomination, or lose at the risk of total and complete political suicide. Under these circumstances, could she possibly have a viable exit strategy? And if not, does that mean we're staring at the first sparks of a nuclear meltdown?
I can't help but wonder if she is banking on the theory (and perhaps correctly) that she can, in fact, say a few nice words at almost any time, and because there will be such massive contempt for her, almost any olive branch will appear as downright divine grace. The majority of dems will say "thank god", and welcome her back to the fold. This would make her a candidate without fear of her own political destruction, no?
May 29, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it would take a few scores of delegates. It has to be more than 10 or 20, but 50 might do it. Especially since losing 50 dels to Obama would mean the difference between them growing by 100.
I think many pledged dels would never switch simply on principle, but I can totally imagine the SDs switching en masse. Not saying they will, just that they could. After all, Hillary kept reminding everyone that this is what they're for... at this point Hillary is on record saying so much stupid shit that all her opponent needs is to use her own words.
I honestly don't believe that Hillary thinks beyond the convention. Her long-term planning for this campaign has been nonexistent. That's part of why she had to keep moving the goalposts all the time. She does not have a viable exit strategy either; if she had, she would have already taken it. She's bet the farm - and like many gamblers, she can't admit to herself that she might lose.
She's lost a lot of Dems permanently. The trust and respect is lost forever, it's not coming back. She's running a high risk of being Liebermanized - with the caveat that she'd have a hard time being elected a dog catcher if she ran as an independent (but she could certainly act as a powerful spoiler).
May 29, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know what pressure anyone can put on Clinton that would get her to budge. If the Supers started to all fall into place so that nothing mattered at all, she would just think up something else to say.
The problem with conceding is that according to her own promise, she would be obligated to "work her heart out" for the nominee: Obama. I cannot see her doing that. No how; no way.
May 29, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course she said that. Everyone knows what she meant - she would be the nominee. She never promised to work for Obama.
May 29, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
She promised to work for the nominee, and as long as she can derail the process, there isn't one.
May 30, 2008 7:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
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