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Newsweek poll: Obama tied with McCain (Is that the best Obama can do?)
After 5 disastrous years in Iraq, Katrina, record gas prices, and in short, one of the worst, if not the worst administrations in our history, The messenger of hope and change can't do better than tie his Republican opponent. (link to poll)
Have we elected a weak candidate? Have we made a big mistake? I hope not. I want America to move forward.
At this point, with Republicans losing congressional seats at a fast pace and the country headed on the wrong direction, Obama should be beating McCain by an overwhelming margin.
Looks like we will all regret having bought his Beatles-like charisma which was disguised his Dukakis-like unelectability.
God help us.
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Comments (19)
Sorry, but regardless of the specificity of head-to-head polls, they are 1) a snapshot in time, and 2) unadjusted to reflect that McCain's support has more or less coalesced since he became the presumptive nominee but Obama splits his support as long as Clinton challenges him and talks about his possible demise.
May 24, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You ignore the important fact that the Democratic-hating media is split between trashing Clinton and Obama; once Clinton is gone, these journalists such as Peggy Noonan, Michael Goodwin, and other conservatives, will direct 100% of their hatred towards Obama, thus making him more vulnerable than he is now.
I hear a lot of Obama supporters use the unsubstantiated conventional wisdom that once Obama locks the nomination he will somehow pull ahead of McCain.
No.
May 24, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing unsubstantiated about it. Math. One party nomination divided by two candidates = 1/2 support plus any overlap. Remove Hillary and Obama's numbers go up. Pretty simple.
psss: (whispering) Troll.
May 24, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because obviously, Peggy Noonan's opinion is worth a solid 3 points in the national polls...
May 24, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I spoke about Democratic-hating journalists as a whole, and you cherry-picked Noonan, who was just one example. The totality of these pundits will come back to haunt Obama once they are bored without their nemesis, Hillary Clinton.
May 24, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, this is just sad.
For starters, the currently RealClearPolitics average of national polls:
Obama vs. McCain: +3 Obama
Clinton vs. McCain: +1 Clinton
The last Reuters had Obama +8 whereas Clinton tied McCain. IBD/TIPP has Obama up 11 whereas Clinton is up by only 2. Battleground has Obama up 2 whereas Clinton is down by 8. Quinnipiac, which didn't poll Clinton vs. McCain, had Obama up 7.
Indeed, Obama should be beating McCain by an overwhelming margin, as should Clinton (who is only up 4 in this poll). Neither are, which speaks to the enduring popularity of McCain and his [false] image as being opposed to the Bush-wing of the party, and in Obama's case, bitterness among Clinton's most partisan supporters.
Democrats have their work cut out for them, regardless of who they nominate, but this pathetic bit of hyperbolic and demonstrably one-sided concern trolling doesn't contribute to that effort.
May 24, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Polling averages include outdated polls. Plus Reuters/Zogby is not recent any more, without mentioning the fact that Zogby polls usually have a pro-Obama slant.
May 24, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Outdated," now there's a relative term. What's to say this Newsweek poll isn't already "outdated?"
Regardless, those polls respond to your question, "Is this the best Obama can do?"
Evidently, he can do quite a bit better than the result listed in this Newsweek poll. End of story. :)
May 24, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
And when does having a "slant" matter? Zogby, like any other pollster, has nailed some results, missed others. There's no bias. You are paranoid. Get help.
May 24, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're among the many serial posters who plant doubt and fear about Obama's ability to win in November because you couldn't make a strong enough case for your candidate to win the primary. You're not to blame. Hillary wasn't able to make a strong enough case for her to win the primary.
You want America to move forward. America IS moving forward.
When Obama officially wins the nomination, you can help him or you can hurt him.
Even if it's not in a VP capacity, Hillary is going to help him.
You're free to do whatever you want.
May 24, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's electability is weak regardless of how Hillary fares against McCain.
May 24, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Lord won't ya deliver us from people who look at May polls as any indicator of what is going to happen in November.
May 24, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
oh my god!!
the sky is falling!!!
please, hillary: come back to save us. we were wrong. so very, very wrong! how could we not have seen what you had been telling us all along? please, dear leader, come back. accept our sincere apologies. we all know that if you had somehow won the nomination (i know, i know. please try to imagine) you would be beating john mccain by no fewer than thirty one points in every state, particularly the states with hard-working white people in them.
i still can't beleive that i was taken in by obama's flowery rhetoric. i should have opted for hillary's pant suits and disavowal of so-called experts...
May 24, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republican Party has a single candidate and we have two--of COURSE McCain looks like he's doing well. Stop worrying. When Hillary finally drops out and we have a nominee, it won't even be a contest.
May 24, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't worrying. This is trolling...
May 24, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this poll doesn't mean as much as Clinton supporters (including myself) would like it, simply because Clinton will ask her supporters to rally behind Obama once this is over and some of them will.
But the problem for Obama is nevertheless real, because he's running against a maverick (however we may hate and deride that notion).
It won't be very easy for Obama to link McCain to everything Bush. I know we're all sold on it, but I'm not so sure about the bitter voters.
I read on some other blog today that McCain will start defining Obama as Jimmy Carter's second term, since many current events are somewhat similar.
May 24, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha.
Newsweek.
May 24, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If anyone actually trusts Clinton vs. McCain or Obama vs. McCain polls right now, they're idiots. As hrebendorf put it, "The Republican Party has a single candidate and we have two--of COURSE McCain looks like he's doing well." Not to mention the fact that the GE is still months away. For a more accurate predictor of what's to come, I'd look at prediction markets. But those still aren't to be trusted very much when concerning the GE. Still, they're a better predictor than polls.
May 24, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope this is the best McCain can do. It is all downhill for him now.
May 24, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
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