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New Calculus: Votes/Contests Won/Delegates Since Wright

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As this moves to the bottom of the heap with the slew of news coming in about the IN/NC Primaries, it occurred to me that a new calculus is really at the heart of Senator Clinton's argument.

To understand we could take a look at where have the metrics shifted since Obama's partial vetting?  The Rev. Wright Controversy began on March 13th with ABC news reporting on the now infamous sermons.

It may eventually be an argument brought forward to  completely disregard (or "disenfranchise" depending on your point of view) a whole new set of voters.

What contests have occurred since March 13th?
* Pennsylvania
* Guam
* North Carolina
* Indiana
You may run the numbers yourself  but, with Pennsylvania and Indiana as "wins" for the working-class argument you will see that Clinton has a "strong" case for pushing this argument.  Looking at the race with this extremely narrow perspective you can see that she is closer to winning on at least 2 fronts:
1) Popular Vote
(MI and FL shouldn't count here since they occurred earlier than the date in question)
2) Pledged Delegates

Coupled with a massive push of the Obama working-class deficit argument will super-delegates buy the argument?  Unlikely, but it will be an excuse for those who want one to show their support for her.

Just a thought... But I wouldn't surprised.


Comments (3)

I've already heard McAwful saying that to his buddy Chris Mathews tonight.
Scumbags.

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Here we go again... One thing that everyone forgets is that the Super-delegates aren't working class voters. They are informed and it will take a pretty sophisticated argument and some of grandpa's cough medicine to convince them of this argument.

I don't think Obama has much reason to worry that the supers will fall for it. Especially after tonight.

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