Reader Posts

« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »

My gut? The Clinton campaign fully expects to win big in IN and take NC

avatar

The polls vary but there is one factor that has been pretty consistent throughout this election.  And that is, you can't believe a word the Clintons say.  Especially not their surrogates.  
Having heard about McAuliffe's comments this morning, my read is that they have both these primaries locked up.  I hate to say that, because I'm an Obama supporter.
But any rational human being has to look at the history of how these people operate.  This is their narrative and no one is going to screw it up for them.  And yes, they would in fact do anything to tip these primaries in their favor. 
That's what an addiction to power does to you.  
Take my opinion with a grain of salt--when Obama caught up in PA. and the polls showed him tied with Hillary, I thought she'd win by at least 15.  People thought I was crazy.  As it turns out I did overestimate but she won by ten. (9.4)
The worst thing any Obama supporter can do right now is to fall for the corporate press/Clinton spin after tonight.  
The Clinton campaign can't win on numbers.  So they have to win on narrative. 
I would even suggest you shut off any MSM after tonight and remember what they want you to forget.  Obama has played this campaign brilliantly.  It seems like the entire world has been trying to kneecap him over the last month,in any way they can.  And, with those robocalls in NC, even if it is voter fraud.  
Regardless of tonight, Obama will still be winning when he wakes up tomorrow.  
So will we.  


Comments (11)

Suppose they expected to lose both IN and NC. What would they be saying then? Exactly what they're saying now.

avatar

I guess hillary bought "The Math" from kkkarl rove

hope she didn't pay too much for that

Because Clinton says it, it's probably true? Don't make me laugh! Really it's quite the opposite. To quote Andrew Sullivan: "In general with the Clintons, however, it is safe to assume that what they say is a lie until proven otherwise."

It's funny, but this parallels my thoughts on Bush and the economy. He said things weren't that bad. Uh oh. He said we weren't heading toward a recession. Uh oh. He said we weren't in a recession. Oh boy! What if he were to come to the Rose Garden and solemnly announce that there was no chance our economy would recover during his administration or the next? Would panic set in or would the stock market hit an all-time high? I keep waiting for him to re-join the reality-based community, but after seven years...

I'm also suspicious Gary. The projection of a 15 pt loss through Drudge seems more slated to create the idea of a shocking, overwhelming upset than an acknowledgement that they'll lose in the single digits. They wouldn't have had Bill out there for 9 events yesterday if they didn't feel it was worthwhile.

I hope you are wrong, but I am a little unsettled by the Clintons' confidence that they will get shell-shocked. They must think things will be very tight tonight. (And if we are all huddled around the TV at midnight EDT waiting for a NC decision, it will have played into the narrative they want to perpetuate.)

I think that Clinton is now in desperation zone. Yes, she will probably win PR, WV, and KY handily, but these are the last two primaries with a large delegate haul (except for OR, but Obama has consistently polled ahead).

Now, the only way I think they would be confident that they would win both handily is that a) their voter-suppression tactics in NC with WVWV were known to them before hand and they're counting on some gains from that; and b) They're counting on the voter-ID law in IN to work in their favor.

avatar

Regardless of what the Clintonistas say about the results, the most powerful action any of us can take tonight is to donate to the Obama campaign - no matter the amount. Just do it! Follow the money - the power is in the numbers!

I think this is a little paranoid. The logic here seems to be: If they're saying what you wouldn't expect them to say if they were going to win, then their past deviousness indicates they know they're going to win both states.

So then what comments from the Clinton camp could possibly indicate they don't think they're going to win both?

Personally, I think this'll pretty much be a wash tonight, with both winning by high single digits in the states they're expected to win.

Regardless, I agree we should stay focused on the metrics that matter.

When it comes to the Clintons, I admit to more than my fair share of paranoia.

The polls vary but there is one factor that has been pretty consistent throughout this election. And that is, you can't believe a word the Clintons say. Especially not their surrogates.

Tell me more!

Having heard about McAuliffe's comments this morning, my read is that they have both these primaries locked up.

But I thought you weren't going to believe a word they say?

I hate to say that, because I'm an Obama supporter.

Really? I hadn't guessed that.

But any rational human being has to look at the history of how these people operate. This is their narrative and no one is going to screw it up for them.

Uh huh…

And yes, they would in fact do anything to tip these primaries in their favor.

Yes, the diabolical Clinton plan to “win” the primary, I see.

That's what an addiction to power does to you.

Right, so I suppose Obama has no “addiction to power” and therefore intends to lose the primaries? Got it.

Take my opinion with a grain of salt—

Baby, you know you don’t even have to ask me….

when Obama caught up in PA. and the polls showed him tied with Hillary, I thought she'd win by at least 15. People thought I was crazy. As it turns out I did overestimate but she won by ten. (9.4)

So, I guess maybe she was slightly less addicted to power than you initially thought? Man, my head hurts.

The worst thing any Obama supporter can do right now is to fall for the corporate press/Clinton spin after tonight.

I certainly don’t intend to listen to any “pro-Clinton” media wags, which is why I will instead be tuning in to any single news program, on any given station, anywhere in this or any other universe.

The Clinton campaign can't win on numbers (??? Like ,what, 52-48?). So they have to win on narrative (??? – “Fifty-two to Forty-eight?).

I would even suggest you shut off any MSM after tonight and remember what they want you to forget.

Alternate suggestion – come back to TPM and forget what they want you to remember!

Obama has played this campaign brilliantly.

Exactly! Any more brilliantly and he would have won it by now.

It seems like the entire world has been trying to kneecap him over the last month, in any way they can.

Even his own pastor – must be why he stands at the door after services with a lead pipe.

And, with those robocalls in NC, even if it is voter fraud.

Too incoherent to snark .

Regardless of tonight, Obama will still be winning when he wakes up tomorrow.
So will we.

OK, I think I finally got it – if Obama gets a bigger number than Clinton he wins, but if he doesn’t he STILL wins because of the narrativization of the addiction for power on behalf of the Clinton-controlled MSM. Oh cruel fate, what doth it profit a man to gain the whole of North Carolina and lose his kneecap?

The polls vary but there is one factor that has been pretty consistent throughout this election. And that is, you can't believe a word the Clintons say. Especially not their surrogates.

Tell me more!

Having heard about McAuliffe's comments this morning, my read is that they have both these primaries locked up.

But I thought you weren't going to believe a word they say?

I hate to say that, because I'm an Obama supporter.

Really? I hadn't guessed that.

But any rational human being has to look at the history of how these people operate. This is their narrative and no one is going to screw it up for them.

Uh huh…

And yes, they would in fact do anything to tip these primaries in their favor.

Yes, the diabolical Clinton plan to “win” the primary, I see.

That's what an addiction to power does to you.

Right, so I suppose Obama has no “addiction to power” and therefore intends to lose the primaries? Got it.

Take my opinion with a grain of salt—

Baby, you know you don’t even have to ask me….

when Obama caught up in PA. and the polls showed him tied with Hillary, I thought she'd win by at least 15. People thought I was crazy. As it turns out I did overestimate but she won by ten. (9.4)

So, I guess maybe she was slightly less addicted to power than you initially thought? Man, my head hurts.

The worst thing any Obama supporter can do right now is to fall for the corporate press/Clinton spin after tonight.

I certainly don’t intend to listen to any “pro-Clinton” media wags, which is why I will instead be tuning in to any single news program, on any given station, anywhere in this or any other universe.

The Clinton campaign can't win on numbers (??? Like ,what, 52-48?). So they have to win on narrative (??? – “Fifty-two to Forty-eight?).

I would even suggest you shut off any MSM after tonight and remember what they want you to forget.

Alternate suggestion – come back to TPM and forget what they want you to remember!

Obama has played this campaign brilliantly.

Exactly! Any more brilliantly and he would have won it by now.

It seems like the entire world has been trying to kneecap him over the last month, in any way they can.

Even his own pastor – must be why he stands at the door after services with a lead pipe.

And, with those robocalls in NC, even if it is voter fraud.

Too incoherent to snark .

Regardless of tonight, Obama will still be winning when he wakes up tomorrow.
So will we.

OK, I think I finally got it – if Obama gets a bigger number than Clinton he wins, but if he doesn’t he STILL wins because of the narrativization of the addiction for power on behalf of the Clinton-controlled MSM. Oh cruel fate, what doth it profit a man to gain the whole of North Carolina and lose his kneecap?

Post a Comment

Inside Cafe



Cafe Features


July 21-25

Bill Bishop The Big Sort

July 28-August 1

Book Cover

August 4-9

Book Cover

August 11-15

James Galbraith The Predator State

August 18-22

Book Cover

September 1-4

Book Cover

September 15-20

Book Cover





Book Club Archive



Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Al Shaw



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address