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Math: Majority of pledged delegates, with and without FL and MI
Basic premise: If Obama gets the majority of the pledged delegates (in addition to the other, less official measurements in his favor such as # of states and popular votes), the remaining SDs will have very good reason to endorse him (and no good reason not to). In fact, some Clinton SDs may well decide they have good reason to switch.
Below is a recap of the delegates won to date, the number needed for a majority of pledged (both with and without MI and FL) and a "worst case" estimate of outcomes of the upcoming primaries and the 'negotiation' over MI and FL. If the estimates are reasonable and the math is correct, I think it's safe to say that Obama WILL have the majority of pledged delegates, whether or not MI and FL are included.
Majority (1/2 plus 1) of pledged delegates:
Without FL and MI: 1627 (total pledged 3253)
With FL and MI: 1785 (total pledged 3569)
Current pledged delegates (per MSNBC 5/8/08)
Clinton 1426 Obama 1590
"Worst case" estimates of upcoming primaries:
WV: Clinton 65%, Obama 35% = C 19 del, O 9 del
KY: Clinton 65%, Obama 35% = C 33, O 18
OR: Clinton 45%, Obama 55% = C 25, O 27
As of May 20th, therefore, Obama would have 1644 delegates, more than 1627: the majority of pledged delegates without FL & MI (Clinton would have 1503)
PR: Clinton 65%, Obama 35% = C 36, O 19
MT: Clinton 45 %, Obama 55% = C 7, O 9
SD: Clinton 45%, Obama 55% = C 6, O 9
At the end of the primaries, Obama would have 1681 delegates. (Clinton would have 1552)
Then Clinton gets what she wants re: MI and FL (I think this is correct?)
MI: Clinton 77 delegates, Obama 51 delegates
FL: Clinton 104 delegates, Obama 84 delegates
With these additions, Obama would then have 1816 delegates, or more than 1785, the majority of pledged delegates WITH FL and MI. (Clinton would have 1733)
Now, to actually clinch the nomination, counting MI and FL, 2209 total delegates would be needed (1/2 + 1 of 4417). Currently, Clinton has 273.5 and Obama has 262.super delegates.
Clinton: 1733 pledged estimate + 273.5 SDs = 2006.5 =
202.5 more SDs needed.
Obama: 1785 pledged + 262 SDs = 2047 = 162 more SDs needed.
There are currently a total of 309 uncommitted SDs (if you includie the ones from MI and FL), and Clinton would need 65% of these and Obama would need 52%. But -- to the extent that Obama does better than projected in any of the upcoming primaries (e.g. if WV went 60/40 for Clinton instead of 65/35), then the number of SDs Obama needs would decrease and the number of SDs Clinton needs would increase.
So at what point can you say that there IS a nominee?
Comments (4)
The number is 2025 set by the DNC.
May 9, 2008 1:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
this whole thing with FL and MI is a nonsense and BO should not agree to anything unless she drops out.
i do not want to entertain the math of FL and MI, but since you are putting it out there, i would like to point out a small error in your calculation.
For Obama with FL and MI, when you add the SDs, the total delegates should be 1816 + 262 = 2078 rather than 1785+ 262 =2047 as you have posted. so he will need another 131 to reach 2209.
May 9, 2008 2:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
"So at what point can you say that there IS a nominee?" When one of them wins.
May 9, 2008 3:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, mrp! I *knew* I'd mess it up somewhere! At least it's really better than I presented, not worse.
I'm not necessarily saying that Obama should agree to accepting MI and FL (that's a political call for him and for DNC to make). BUT, I guess it comes of being a lawyer, I want him to be able to say, unequivocally, "I win" ... no matter what happens with MI and FL. Even if Clinton gets everything she wants on that issue, Obama still wins.
If these projections play out (or are better for Obama), then Obama wins at the end of the primaries no matter what happens down the road with MI and FL. And if it's accepted that these projections will play out (or be better for Obama), then he wins whenever 131 SDs come out for him.
I truly believe that what the SDs want is for the voters to be the ones "making the decision" which they then endorse. The perception, or at least the story, is that you can't really figure out what the voters have said until MI and FL are resolved. ------- What I'm trying to do is to take MI and FL "out of the picture" so to speak by conceding (in theory) everything Clinton wants to have happen with those states and STILL show that Obama will, without question, have the majority of pledged delegates.
Clinton is not going to leave the field (or her support is not going to totally dry up) until someone says it is *impossible* for her to win. Saying it's "improbable" or "prohibitively difficult" for her to to win can be seen as a challenge .... and we know what Clinton, the fighter, does when she's challenged. ---- My hope is that if Clinton continues to go over the line and continue damaging the party and its prospects, 131 SDs could get together and effectively say "STOP - NOW."
May 9, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
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