Don Cazayoux's victory in Louisiana's 6th Congressional District should send a message to national Democrats that Louisiana is officially in play in this year's elections.

The DCCC spent significant dollars in the race and Cazayoux had decent fund-raising efforts on his own. As a result of those efforts — and a rising tide of disgust with the impact of national Republican policies and the Bush administration — a Democrat took this seat for the first time since the 1970s.

These developments and others point to the real possibility of Louisiana's nine electoral votes going into the Democratic column in this fall's election. But it's not all good news.

National Democratic spending in Louisiana was instrumental in Cazayoux's victory, particularly so in light of the political message vacuum that Democratic congressional candidates (and voters) have operated in for the past 12 years.

Bill Clinton carried Louisiana in both of his presidential campaigns. He won here, in part, because his campaigns spent time and effort here. That is something that neither the Gore campaign, nor the Kerry campaign did during the stretch run to election day in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

This year, with Mary Landrieu being targeted by Karl Rove's hand-picked candidate, John Kennedy, the DSCC will be spending money here in coming months, defending what appears to be one of the only Democratic senate incumbents in any serious re-election trouble.

But, the real opportunity here will come if Barack Obama is the nominee and his campaign spends money in Louisiana, where he won the primary with 57 percent of the vote in March.

The reason Obama, in particular, brings Louisiana into play can be found in newly-released U.S. Census bureau population estimates that peg Louisiana's minority population at 37 percent, the vast majority of that minority being African Americans.

Louisiana African American political leaders with whom I've spoken believe that Obama at the head of the Democratic ticket will produce record turnout among African Americans here, to levels not seen since the Edwards vs. Duke governor's race of 1991.

The news is not all good for Democrats, though. A series of racially obtuse state party leaders and white Democratic candidates candidates who court the African American base here at election time, but shunt them and their interests when it comes to governing, have inflicted serious damage on the party base here.

The extent of that damage to the party caused by these self-inflicted wounds may be about to become apparent.

There are active discussions involving a number of African American Democratic state legislators about running as independent candidates in the November congressional elections. They hope to ride that anticipated record African American turnout to seats in the next Congress by winning pluralities in their respective congressional districts — one of which is the 6th where Cazayoux just won election. The other Louisiana congressional districts where this scenario might play out are the 4th (being vacated by Republican Jim McCrery) and the 7th (now held by Republican Charles Boustany).

That is, these lawmakers are contemplating runs as independent candidates against Democrats and Republicans in the November election, thereby skipping the Democratic party primary where they face the prospect of having to run against better-funded white Democrats.

Not surprisingly, there are reports that Republicans are encouraging these moves.

At this point, no establishment Democratic candidate has emerged in the 7th District (southwest Louisiana), so it may well be possible to convince the African American legislator looking at the district (state Sen. Donald Cravins, Jr.) to run as a Democrat, which would offer him a real chance at victory.

In any event, there area some high risk strategies being contemplated which could end help bring Louisiana into the Obama column in the electoral college, but at the same time undermine potential Democratic gains in the Congress.

This is not reason for the national party to shy away from here. Our nine electoral votes would look mighty nice in the blue column. But, they won't get there unless the party and the national ticket commits to trying to win them. It's been a while since they've done that.