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Let's Stop the Polling Foolishness and Special Pleading

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The Clinton folks really need to stop trying to use current polls to make their case against Obama.  It simply reinforces the cliche that there are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics. 

Here are many of the latest poll results as compiled by RealClear Politics.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/

2008/latestpolls/index.html


It should be noted,

  1. It's notoriously difficult this far out from November to make predictions based on current polls.  
  2. Knowing #1, how could anyone look at these polls and use them to determine who should win the Democratic Contest?


The fact is that Obama has played by the rules and is winning in the
delegate count.  In addition, the national popular vote is a myth. It
is a bogus metric.  And the media has done the country a disservice by
not explaining this adequately.


See, "The Myth of the Popular Vote (or why caucuses may be hazardous
to your representation)" and "A New Game: The Metrics Game"  http://msa4.wordpress.com/


Democratic Presidential Nomination    Gallup Tracking    Obama 53, Clinton 42    Obama +11.0

California: McCain vs. Clinton    Rasmussen    McCain 35, Clinton 54    Clinton +19.0

California: McCain vs. Obama    Rasmussen    McCain 38, Obama 52    Obama +14.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination    Rasmussen Tracking    Obama 50, Clinton 42    Obama +8.0

Virginia: McCain vs. Obama    SurveyUSA    McCain 42, Obama 49    Obama +7.0

Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Clinton    Quinnipiac    McCain 37, Clinton 50    Clinton +13.0

Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama    Quinnipiac    McCain 40, Obama 46    Obama +6.0

Ohio: McCain vs. Clinton    Quinnipiac    McCain 41, Clinton 48    Clinton +7.0

Ohio: McCain vs. Obama    Quinnipiac    McCain 44, Obama 40    McCain +4.0

Florida: McCain vs. Clinton    Quinnipiac    McCain 41, Clinton 48    Clinton +7.0

Florida: McCain vs. Obama    Quinnipiac    McCain 45, Obama 41    McCain +4.0

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton    IBD/TIPP    Clinton 44, McCain 39    Clinton +5.0

General Election: McCain vs. Obama    IBD/TIPP    Obama 48, McCain 37    Obama +11.0

California: McCain vs. Clinton    PPIC    McCain 39, Clinton 51    Clinton +12.0

California: McCain vs. Obama    PPIC    McCain 37, Obama 54    Obama +17.0

General Election: McCain vs. Clinton    Battleground    Clinton 43, McCain 51    McCain +8.0

General Election: McCain vs. Obama    Battleground    Obama 49, McCain 47    Obama +2.0

Crossposted




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