The 2008 Election this fall will be about National Security -- Not the economy as many are predicting.

I say that because of the news we got this week that the economy actually grew by 0.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, the same as it was during the last quarter of 2007.

I also say that because President George W. Bush is out there in the public pushing that the economy is not in a recession and that we’ve always survived these slumps.

I said back in March that we had a recession; but that the two quarters were the end of 2007 and the first of this year.  We are pulling out of it now.
 
I realize that the Commerce Department says that statistic did not meet what economists consider a definition of a recession, which is a contraction of the economy. This means that although the economy is stuck in a rut, it is still managing to grow, even if slightly.

I can’t count the number of times however, that we’ve only later found out that those statistics have been revised and now show something different.  Sometime in 2009 we will be told that we, did indeed, have a recession.

Meanwhile, while the Democrats are talking about the economy today and planning on it being the number one issue in the fall; the GOP are preparing instead, for a fight about our national security -- again.

By the time October comes around gas prices will have dropped once again to something more ‘acceptable’ to Americans (probably around $3.00 mark – even though that’s almost triple what it was in 2000 when Bush took office).  Heating and air condition bills will also drop because of it being fall.  Food prices will drop because of the lowered gas prices.

General Petraeus (not sure if this will be his replacement instead or not) is supposed to return to Congress to make an Iraq ‘surge’ report in September or October.  He will most likely report a plan to withdraw some more troops. 

President Bush of course, will give a press conference saying the ‘surge worked’.  "We are bringing 20,000 troops home to their families by Christmas time."

Take note however, bringing home 20-30,000 troops will put us back to the level we were at in January of 2007.

The President, the GOP and Senator John McCain will benefit from all of it.  They will be able to claim the economy is getting stronger, tax cuts worked, rebates worked.  They’ll claim the ‘surge’ worked, troops are coming home.  We are winning in Iraq.

If the Democratic nominee (most likely Barack Obama) is able to pull out a win in November, it will have to be a discussion on the failed policies of the Republican Party, national security failures, foreign policy and universal health care and 'change' in Washington; Somewhat like it’s been over the past 8 years of elections.

In the end, if Barack Obama wins in November, which I think he will, he will need to tread softly with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The Bush administration will be purposely pushing a ‘We are Winning’ message over the Summer and Fall. 

If President Obama should make a few mistakes and things temporally get worse or things don’t improve over the next 4 years – it will be the Democratic Party’s ‘failure’ to ‘win these wars’.  History will say that we were ‘winning in Iraq’ when Bush left office.  Things got worse when Democrats took over.

I personally think we will be forced to stay in the Middle East for years to come. 

The Bush administration put us there for that exact reason.  As John McCain said yesterday – it’s about Oil.

So my fellow Democrats or Independents -- wake up.  It won't be a fight about the economy -- it will be national security.