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Is WV a zero gain for Hillary before the votes are even counted?
We all know Poblano over at fivethirtyeight.com is on a predictive roll lately. So how is is he/she calling WV?
He's giving WV to Hillary with 105,000 popular votes and 12 delegates. Obama, he predicts will get 6 delegates.
Now if these numbers hold up with Obama's 4 Supers, so far, today and one pledged delegate switch from Hillary to Obama her delegate gain on Obama from WV will be zero.
The popular vote gain will be more than negated by the OR primary.
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Comments (6)
Word out of Ohio is that when the vote is certified Obama will have 100,000 to 120,000 more votes (provisionals finally got counted) than was originally reported on election night.
This means that, yet again, BHO has a counter punch for her weak jab. If he could perfect that left hook, she'd be down and out.
It also means that HRC only won Ohio by about 8.5%, not the 10% widely reported.
May 13, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once it was the Obama cultists who accused Clinton of discounting small states. But now it is those same hypocrites who are out there claiming that a thirty-five point WV blowout is irrelevant. Don't you understand that WV is a state that democrats can win with the right candidate?? And you don't need to be an "economist" to understand that Obama is not that candidate.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/bizarro-day-at-tpmcafe.php
May 13, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think your comparing apples to oranges.
HRC supporters are/were discounting small states because the big states, in her argument, were MUCH more important.
BHO supporters are discounting West Virginia because it won't make a significant difference in the delegate tally. Even if she gets the best case scenario and nets 12 delegates tonight, she will still be behind by more than 150 delegates.
May 13, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton can appeal to both apples AND oranges. Don't you understand??? YOU ARE THROWING IT AWAY!!
May 13, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where did I say WV doesn't count? All I did was point out what would be the end result of the WV primary. Not a game changer. If you took away from my post that I was saying it didn't count and in rereading I can see where you might, my apologies.
However, the Obama camp (not supporters) has never said certain states don't matter. Where as the always popular Mark Penn specifically said - small states don't matter.
May 13, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
TPMers really get Bizarro Day!!! Bizarro Loves Hillary.
May 13, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
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