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How Obama Could Win the Nomination before May 31st
Obama has received 11 new super-delegates today.
7 of 19 Edwards delegates have endorsed Obama today. They include South Carolina delegates Daniel Boan, Christine Brennan-Bond, Robert Groce, Susan Smith, Mike Evatt and Lauren Bilton and New Hampshire Delegate Joshua Denton.
In addition CWA President and Superdelegate Larry Cohen, Chairmen Henry Waxman and Howard Berman, Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) have also endorsed Obama.
Obama has now gotten 45 new delegates since the NC and IN primaries, 35 of which occurred in the 7 days after the primaries and before the Edwards endorsement. 3 of those SDs switched from Clinton. Clinton herself has gotten 5 new Super-delegates in the same time.
Obama is 129.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination. It is likely that Obama will get about 52 new pledged delegates next week from Kentucky and Oregon. That would leave him needing about 77.5 delegates to get to 2026.
According to Donna Brazille, if Obama gets 2026 before May 31st, then Obama will have won the nomination and the May 31st Rules Committee meeting will be cancelled because Obama has already reached the nominating goal. The purpose of the meeting scheduled on the 31st is to resolve a crucial issue. If Obama gets 2025 then the meeting is no longer crucial. I don't know when the meeting would be rescheduled, but it would no longer need to be resolved early.
Obama has been getting about 5 SD/day. At that rate with Edwards 19 and with Oregon and Kentucky, he would get past 2026 in 12 days.
Comments (13)
2209 is the new 2026 - Didn't you get the Clinton Campaign memo?
May 15, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops! I missed that. I generally shred Hillary's memo before I read them.
May 15, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not supers, all. 7 pledged delegates switched from Edwards to Obama; 4 superdelegates, but good ones like union leaders and Henry Waxman.
It's 11 delegates, no matter who you look at it. That, friends, is a good day.
May 15, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're right. The pledged delegates, under no obligation, actually could vote for anyone they liked, effectively acting as super delegates.
May 15, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's goal posts are now in Scotland.
The 2026 meme is a ploy to extend this to June 3 no matter what (Hillary hedging her bets now), and I bet it goes to June 15. The zealotry with which Hillary supporters and surrogates are digging in their heels is threatening an ugly, protracted finale, way beyond the logical end point.
May 15, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I meant 2209.
I'm just so angry ;^)
May 15, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
They should still hold the meeting on the 31st no matter if he gets to 2025 or not. The delegate situation in FL and MI needs to be sorted out and happily agreed upon by all parties so that there can be no media thread about the 'legitamacy' of Obama's nomination, or pre-convention BS rumors and questions of party unity.
I have no doubt that they will sort it out amicably and fully transparently on the 31st, and Hillary will gracefully bow out however she chooses. Having 2025 by then is just a better bargaining chip for Obama.
Be happy, we won. We'll get our confetti night soon. Remember, he's smarter than us (thats why he's gonna be president).
May 16, 2008 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
You didn't get the Obama memo? He has already won the nomination.The press has all but declared him the nominee. Sites like this have dropped even the pretense of objective balance. There is not one item on the TPM homepage referring to Clinton; oh, except this:
We seem to have arrived at an equitable compromise: Sen. Clinton is staying in the nomination race while Sen. Obama drops out to move on to the general.
--Josh Marshall
Congratualtions to Obama
May 16, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Posted prematurely. The block quotes should have extended to Josh Marshall. And I'd add that it wasn't the will of the people or pladeged delegates or any demographic that ended it early. It was the will of the press and party establishment. Nothing new there.
May 16, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is just silly. It's been clear for a while that Obama's mathematical majority is just a matter of time, and IN and NC removed the last doubt. Nominating races are invariably viewed as "over" once a candidate has reached the point of no-plausible-return. The press and politicians never wait until the math is officially settled, and the voters usually follow suit. Look at the GOP this year. Look at both parties in years past. This year is unusual not in the way "the media has shut it down" but in the determination of one candidate and her supporters to believe what no longer mathematically makes sense.
May 16, 2008 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please name a race where a candidate was declared out when there was still a mathematical chance to win the nomination. Point me to one candidate who was run out of the race by the press before the primary was over. Candidates and their supporters decide when it’s over for them whether their own or their opponents’ numbers place them as improbable, unlikely or impossible. Clinton has been condemned repeatedly since post SuperTuesday for staying in the race. Her evil decision to not quit has been hurting Obama and destroying the party. The whole “it’s over” game has simply been playing the refs (the press and party leaders). Well, the refs have been played.
May 16, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
IMHO, the rules committee should meet even after Obama gets to 2025, just for the purpose of deciding the MI and FL question. Although both intentionally and flagrantly broke primary rules, Obama didn't campaign in either state, Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot in MI, and Obama will get the nomination even if they're not counted, we do need to keep them and those who care about them on our side for the GE.
MI and FL delegates should be seated according to the plan Obama accepted reflecting Hillary's wins but diminishing their effect. That way their votes count and they'll get to sit on the convention floor and wave happy signs, which I hear is what delegates really want. And by the end of May, Hillary will be forced by circumstances to accept the committee's decision.
MI and FL are still a crucial issue, just as giving current Hillary supporters (except, of course, the woman-or-bust women) a reason to move to Obama is crucial. In both cases, as urbinato (or whatever he goes by these days), someone has to call a truce so we can all dig into McCain.
May 16, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fuck Donna Brazile. I am sick and tired of an unelected Democratic elite using her paid media platform (on CNN) to manipulate public perception and try to strong-arm the outcome of this primary season. She remains "undeclared" while reciting Obama talking points as if she's neutral. I am also sick and tired of her TV tantrums. She seems to have forgotten how a democracy is supposed to work.
May 18, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
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