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How Edwards Endorsement Can End This in the Next Few Days
Obama has 1889 total delegates
If the remaining primaries break in the following way,
Ky - 60%/40% - Clinton
MO - 56%/44% - Obama
OR - 60%/40% - Obama
SD - 54%/46% - Obama
PR - 56%/44% - Clinton
then 92 pledged delegates will be awarded to Obama from the remaining primaries.
Ky - 20
MO - 8
OR - 31
SD - 8
PR - 24
That gets Obama to 1981. Obama would need 44(19%) more super-delegates out of the 235 uncommitted super-delegates remaining. Edwards also has 19 pledged delegates and if they all go to Obama then Obama will need only 25(11%) more super-delegates out of the remaining 235. Either way this goal is attainable and likely.
According to Donna Brazille, if Obama gets 2025 before May 31st, then Obama will have won the nomination and the May 31st Rules Committee meeting will be cancelled.
Edwards endorsement gives permission to other super-delegates to bring this to an end. Thank you John Edwards.
Comments (15)
Given that all of the Committee wants to find some way of seating Michigan and Florida, why would they cancel it?
Are you suggesting they'd cancel it for the time being in order to have a real presumptive nominee and then hold the committee meeting later once Clinton's campaign had really been suspended?
Doesn't Clinton have a majority on the Rules Committee?
I read a compelling article yesterday arguing that the Clintons, especially Hillary, had been so conditioned by the impeachment process, that all they know is that if you keep fighting, you will end up defeating your enemy; that she genuinely doesn't believe Barack will win the general and thus she's convinced that her continuing on is actually in the Party's interest. It's hard to imagine her relinquishing that perspective, especially when she has key stalwarts encouraging her in it.
May 14, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I liked that article too. It's by Michael Crowley from TNR- http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=7aa100ee-a34d-4fa9-b041-154139207075
May 14, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama gets 2025 before May 31st, then the meeting is canceled because Obama has already reached the nominating goal. The purpose of the meeting scheduled on the 31st is to resolve a crucial issue. If Obama gets 2025 then the meeting is no longer crucial. I don't know when the meeting would be rescheduled, but it would no longer need to be resolved early. If John Edward's delegates go to Obama then 65 more SD votes get him to 2025.
May 14, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton has a majority on the rules committee, doesn't that mean they were directly responsible in the first place for the very rules they now want to circumnavigate?
HYPOCRITES!
May 15, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see Oregon breaking 60-40 for Obama. And the rest of the primaries are after May 31. He would need to start rolling out about 10 super delegates a day in order to reach 2025 before May 31.
May 14, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama gets 2025 before May 31st, then the meeting is canceled because Obama has already reached the nominating goal. The purpose of the meeting scheduled on the 31st is to resolve a crucial issue. If Obama gets 2025 then the meeting is no longer crucial. I don't know when the meeting would be rescheduled, but it would no longer need to be resolved early. If John Edward's delegates go to Obama then 65 more SD votes get him to 2025.
May 14, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The recent Oregon polls show Obama at 55% with 8% undecided, on average. Maybe not 60%, but close.
May 14, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has been getting about 5 SD/day. At that rate with Edwards 19 and with Oregon, he would get to 2025 in 13 days. I suspect the rate might increase with Edwards endorsement.
May 14, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator You-Know-Her has always maintained that the so-called "super" delegates should have the final say in selecting the Democratic Party's nominee for President. That ironic death wish surely comes under the heading of: "Take care what you ask for, because you just might get it."
With another 4 super-delegates yesterday along with today's endorsement by John Edwards (potentially bringing his 19 pledged delegates into Senator Obama's column) the delegate tide towards Senator Obama in only the last two days effectively negates Senator You-Know-Her's win in West Virginia yesterday.
The only question remains -- as it has for the past two months: Will Senator You-Know-Her ever get it? The answer depends, of course, on the several alternative meanings one could possibly assign to the word "get."
May 14, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bottom line: If either of these candidates has a solid majority of the *pledged* delegates, then the superdelegates really cannot take the nomination away from them, at least short of a major earth-shattering scandal. Not this year. It would rip the party right in half.
If you agree with that, then Obama wins, 'no dispute' as Tim Russert said. If FL and MI are not counted, Obama will have a solid majority of pledged delegates by May 20. Even if FL and MI *are* counted as a result of the May 31 meeting, he will have a solid majority of pledged delegates by June 1. End of story.
Here's how it works (using slightly more conservative estimates than the original poster).
WITHOUT FL and MI:
Total pledged delegates -- 3253
Needed for majority of pledged delegates -- 1627
WITH FL and MI:
Total pledged delegates -- 3566
Needed for majority of pledged delegates -- 1783
1599 Obama's current pledged delegates
18 KY 65/35 Clinton
28 OR 47/53 Obama
1645 as of May 20
(18 more than majority w/o FL & MI)
55 MI (# of delegates for 'uncommitted')
73 FL (# of delegates 'won')
1773 as of May 31
(10 short of majority w/ FL & MI)
19 PR 65/35 C
1792 as of June 1
(9 more than majority w/ FL & MI)
9 MT 45/55 O
8 SD 45/55 O
1809 as of June 3
(26 more than majority w/ FL & MI)
If Edwards' 18 pledged delegates are added in (and not just considered to be 'superdelegates' since Edwards can only request), Obama could have the majority of pledged delegates as of May 31.
Note: I'm not saying that MI and FL should be counted but just pointing out that it simply DOE NOT MATTER. Obama wins solidly even if they are counted.
May 14, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
er .... DOES NOT MATTER (sorry 'bout that)
May 14, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tonny and Elizabeth2: I started doing the math as soon as Edwards endorsed. But you beat me to the actual act of posting.
The Obama camp had predicted they would reach an absolute majority of available pledged delegates (that's 1617.5) on May 20, when the Kentucky and Oregon primaries are held.
That's an important symbolic figure, since it's the point at which the superdelegates -- if they were to choose Hillary over Barack -- would have to overrule the elected delegates.
But if all 18 or 19 of Edwards' pledged delegates (I've seen both figures. Let's go with 19; it's a fairly safe bet they will all follow his lead) back Obama, he's reached that tipping point tonight.
Which automatically gives him the superdelegate votes of the Pelosi Club -- nine SDs, led by Nancy Pelosi, who have sworn in advance to vote for the winner in pledged delegates.
The latest delegate figures I've seen were 1887 for Obama, 1718 for Clinton.
Add nine plus 19, and you have an additional 28, for an Obama total of 2015.
That's 11 (READ 'EM, ELEVEN) short of all-out victory.
TonnyB's math has Obama picking up 51 pledged delegates in the May 20 primaries; Elizabeth and I go with the more conservative calculation of 46.
No matter! Either way, it's OVER at the latest by May 20.
Donna Brazile has already said that if a candidate reaches 2,026 before the May 31 rules committee meeting, that person is the Democratic nominee.
And that's without superdelegates flocking to Obama in such numbers over the next week that the May 20 results simply won't matter.
What happens at the rules meeting 11 days later, of course, will matter even less.
So relax, folks, it's ALL OVER May 20.
And if you've read this far, please recommend this thread. I don't want to have to do the math all over again.
May 15, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Math error alert!
I accepted someone else's calculation of 1617.5 as a majority of available pledged delegates.
But Elizabeth says there are 3253 pledged delegates in total, so a majority would be 1627.
That means members of the Pelosi Club won't feel obliged to declare until the May 20 results are in.
But it's still clear Obama will be over 1627 at that point, and he'll surely pick up enough superdelegates in the meantime to have put him over 2026.
So the basic conclusion stands.
It's all over May 20.
May 15, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, let me just retract both previous posts. I've been into the Merlot, and my math has suffered accordingly.
I still think it's over by May 20, but my calculations are total crap.
TonnyB and Elizabeth have figured it out much more carefully.
May 15, 2008 1:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, acanuck - nice to have someone else obsessing on this as well. And now we're in good company -- Chuck Todd pointed out the same aspect this morning on MSNBC!! (Do you suppose he saw our posts?)
Couple of tweaks: Edwards has, I believe, 18 pledged delegates and 1 superdelegate. Of course they all act as superdelegates now since Edwards can request but not require. (one has already announced he's going along with the request.)
Also, the number of total delegates (and therefore the number required for a majority) has been moving around, mainly up, as a result of changes, such as the acquisition of several nice, juicy Republican house seats. Smile! Some parallel changes in superdelegate numbers, such as when Spitzer stepped down as NY Gov and David Paterson, his successor, was already an SD and a member of the DNC.
So ..... it will essentially be over by May 20. Question is: will HRC recognize that fact?
BTW, I think the 'recommend' feature on this post is broken - I can't make the number go up. ??
May 15, 2008 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
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