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Hillary's Last Hope......
In order for Hillary Clinton to win, she has to do several things....
1. have all the delegates and votes counted from michigan and florida on May 31st.
2. she has to win HUGE in puerto rico
3. she has to win atleast 1 more contest here in the united states, whether that be montana or south dakota
4. she has to convince the super delegates that are uncommitted to swing big time for her.
5. she has to convince the super delegates and pleged delegates are are backing Obama to swing her way big time.
6. she has to finish on June 3rd, when winning the popular vote
7. she has to finish on June 3rd, with a good lead in the polls against John McCain vs Obama & McCain.
She has to do all this between May 28th to June 3rd.
If she can pull all that off.....she is the winner:)
GO HILLARY!!!!!!!!!
Comments (52)
So what your saying is she needs a miracle.
May 28, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not a last hope--that's an LSD experience.
May 28, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
what do the mormons have to do with it?
May 28, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
ooops...thats LSD not LDS
May 28, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Flashbacks to Star Trek IV…
(Kirk said that Spock did a little too much "LDS" in that movie. It was meant to show that Kirk was out of touch with the twentieth century, but I wonder if offended any LDS members.)
May 29, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, she needs a miracle...And I believe a miracle is going to happen...... the news media have written her off so many times, and she's come back each time stronger.....
GO HILLARY!!!
May 28, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
But to what end? She can't possibly beat McCain. If she gets the nomination, he wins.
May 28, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, she keeps coming back weaker, not stronger. That's the problem.
May 29, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's really sad that the Clinton Campaign has managed to be able to continue to raise false hopes in this way. Just for starters, they have misled their followers, and many other Americans, about the so-called popular vote. It is a myth. And were she to use it to win, the Democratic Party would be finished in this election.
"Why I Can't Stop Criticizing Hillary, yet (although I wish I could)" http://msa4.wordpress.com/
May 29, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
If she gets the nomination.... no if about it, she will and she will win the general election... she is a fighter and will continue to fight for america.... GO HILLARY!!!!
May 28, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's a little "Reply" link at the bottom of every comment. If you click that before you reply to someone, it's clearer who you're replying to.
You need to put this in perspective. Hillary's negatives are well above 50%. That's already a bad sign for the general election. And she has a ton of baggage that the Republicans will use against her to get the base out to the polls. They may not like McCain, but they like her FAR less. By the time the Republicans are finished with her, YOU won't even want to vote for her.
Think about what the Republicans will do with her health insurance plan. They will bury her with it. We can tell you're very excited about her prospects, but it's just not realistic to think that a candidate can go into a race with numbers like she has and pull off a win. The Clintons are HATED by Republicans, and not well liked by many Democrats either. If Hillary gets the nomination, McCain will be president.
May 28, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Her negatives were at or near 50% when the campaign began. That's one of the reasons I was worried even before the Obama campaign took off that Clinton would be a fatally flawed nominee. That and her potential downticket liabilities.
Back then I was hoping Gore would get in and choose Obama as his VP. (That's the only circumstance I can imagine where Obama would be a VP candidate.)
May 28, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
How could Hillary possibly win the GE? The GOP hates her, and it is actively vetting Bill. Do we know what Bill has been up to in the last 7 years? And I'm talking about WOMEN, not his sleazy money-making deals. Do you think Hillary can win with another (or more) Bill sex scandal on her hands? No one talks about the strong possiblity of this, but it should be a big worry.
May 29, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
So then if she does not win Montana or South Dakota, you will agree that she should concede?
May 28, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe Hillary will not concede no matter what the out come is on May 31, June 1 and June 3... I can see her taking this to the convention....
I think if she loses both Montana and South Dakota since they are the last states to vote.... her lost would have to be by single digits for me to say that i would not want her to concede... but if she loses both and loses them by double digits i think its time for her to finally concede.
May 28, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it goes to the convention, it won't matter who the Democratic nominee is. There will be riots in Denver and protests all the way through November. Why in the hell would you welcome something like that?
May 28, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
There will be riots in Denver...
Bullplop. Please quit warning us about things that won't happen. Thanks.
May 28, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that's your standard, no one should be on this thread at all. It is straight-up Imaginationland!
May 28, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously you've never spent any time there. CU Boulder students used to riot when there was a special on Hebrew National hot dogs at King Soopers. They'd drag their sofas out onto the street and set them on fire. You think it won't happen? Just watch.
May 28, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hell, I'll be there if Hillary steals this. If you weren't around to witness it, read up on Chicago '68.
Everywhere I hear the sound of marching, charging feet, boy,
'Cause summer's here and the time is right for fighting in the street, boy
May 28, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rush Limbaugh is already trying to gin up a riot at the Dem convention regardless. Then there's the idiots from that leftwing campaign that uses 1968 as a call for protests in Denver.
RIOTS are not what we need in Denver no matter what happens. Abbie Hoffman wasted his political organizing talents inadvertently helping get Richard Nixon elected in 1968. Then he spent most of his adult life hiding from the FBI. His biggest actual accomplishment was organizing a movement to keep a stretch of the St. Lawrence Seaway protected from polluters. Under an alias.
If you want effective action let Hillary's elected backers know that if she doesn't drop out soon after June 3rd and they stay with her you will work ceaselessly to primary them out of office at the first opportunity.
There has to be a cost for going against the party's good for their own selfish interests. That cost should not be a circular firing squad that kills our chances of electing a Dem president and the huge majority in congress we need. Hillary is not gonna win the nomination anyway. Massive protests or riots in Denver will make us all look bad and kill us in the fall.
May 29, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whether riots are needed or not isn't the point. The point is, there will be lots of angry people in Denver if Hillary tries to steal this. And all it takes is one cop with a careless nightstick to set things off.
Obama's supporters are being exceedingly patient and exceedingly polite, in my opinion. But the patience and the politeness end if she tries to subvert the Democratic process. Then it's not about Hillary versus Obama--it's about Hillary versus Democracy. And Hillary will lose.
May 29, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
So now you use terrorism- (threat to riot) to win your point? Do you really believe riots will occur if there is a contested convention? Do you rtemember the preppy riots in Florida? We do and we won't be bullied.
Do you think this is the way to settle things? If obama cannot stop his supporters from rioting he should not be president. Is that why he whips up big boisterous crowds? So he can use the threat of violence to advance his position and close the deal for him?
What do you think a convention is for? They don't call it a coronation. It is a place to use democracy to decide a contest. This is a contest. It IS close.
May 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
But you said in your post that:
I'm just trying to understand your goalposts.
Didn't you also say that Hillary could win Oregon? Or at least come close and surprise people? http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/oregon-could-hillary-win-it.php
I have made poor predictions before as well, but it just seems like you post this type of blog before each primary and state how THIS is the week that Hillary gets all the momentum on her side. Wouldn't you agree it's a little late for momentum, given how 98% of votes have been cast already?
May 28, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. She will do her best to divide the party whether she wins or not.
According to the rules Hillary agreed to abide by she has already essentially lost, with or without a miracle.
So the only way she can "win" is by forcing her way to be done through manipulations of various kinds. Then she loses in the general for sure, after the riots at the convention and subsequent press.
She keeps saying SHE is the one being treated unfairly; but really, do you think Obama could have even begun to suggest something like this if he'd won Michigan and Florida and Hillary not gone ballistic about it. If you do then I have a lot at the bottom of the Ohio River I'd like to sell you.
We don't need her kind in the White House, and by "kind" I mean vicious, attacking, changing facts (lies), "forgetting" important things, etc.
Her signature means nothing; and the sniper fire in Bosnia had NO effect on her since that was also a lie.
How can any Democrat support this liar/cheater/hater?
May 28, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is very stinky garbage. It's time you let the sunshine and fresh air in. disinfect your mind. Do some reading from a broader perspective. It's healthy.
May 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
HC08,
I absolutely love you unbridled optimism. Yet a dose of reality might be in order.
As of this moment Obama is either 46 delegates away from securing what he needs to be the presumptive nominee without Fl or MI. However, if MI and Fl are seated as predicted loosing half their delegates he needs another 87.5 delegates. So from FL Obama would get 34.5 delegates. Same for Mi Obama gets if they go as is 27.5. Net gain 62 delegates for Obama leaving him with just 25.5 delegates to secure the presumptive nomination.
Hillary is to far back to make up the delegate race with the above scenario.
PR even with a PR loss he will probably get 25 delegates. MT is a win putting well over the top and SD is a maybe still putting further over the top. All this without another Super.
Now somebody smarter than can check my math, but if I'm not completely right I am pretty darn close.
As far as the popular vote line. I don't think it's convincing the people it needs to convince. The Supers
May 28, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just use the Slate delegate counter:
http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/
Very zimple. Very easy. No math required.
May 28, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well your right about Slate's Delegate Counter. Then again I would have missed beating my head against my desk :)
May 28, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
DCW has obama's delegate lead at 199, with 197 uncommitted supers.
maybe MI,FL,PR can change the numbers a little, but she is more than just a little behind.
May 28, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
In case anyone hasn't seen it, there IS a way Hillary can win this thing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBGyuYKlxIg
May 28, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Hillary's campaign IS history."
That's cold! :D
May 29, 2008 2:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
5. she has to convince the super delegates and pleged delegates are are backing Obama to swing her way big time.
You could have just listed this one, which is both necessary and sufficient.
The problem with most of your other points is that they would do nothing for Hillary but reiterate arguments that have yet to convince the superdelegates in any significant number. She's made those arguments, but continues to lose supers to Obama by a factor of more than five to one. Even bringing MI and FL into the picture won't help enough to change things.
The only thing that would give her the swing in delegates she would need is some kind of mega-scandal for Obama. That, or the sort of catastrophe she alluded to without intending to allude to it (as far as I know, and I take her at her word) just a few days ago. That's really what it's come down to.
May 28, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
She also needs for the "other" vote in Michigan to not be attributed to Obama - what is rightly being called the North Korean model.
May 28, 2008 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton is on the Tanya Harding road to victory. Let's hope the authorities stop her before she does even more damage to the party and to our nominee.
May 28, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I found the humor in your blog, and the best part was the thought of Clinton having to convince uncommitted superdelegates AND pledged delegates to swing "big time" for her.
Hmm.....either you haven't been paying close attention to news/websites on the delegate support trends or you're genuinely pulling our legs here, dear HillaryClinton08! Or maybe you're somewhere in the middle, growing sadder by the day over her prospects and feeling it's truly coming to an end...well, it's OK, she'll live on in the Senate and maybe even be a NY gov someday. I'm no fan of hers but I appreciate your passion for your candidate, as I appreciate my own for Obama. You hang in there.
May 28, 2008 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Hillary08 it is unanimous, outside of the Clinton camp, that the Flordia and Michigan delegates will not be seated as she wants it.
Obama is favored in both Montana and SD.
And there will not be enough superdelegates that will move to Clinton to overturn the current situation.
I think the bridges have been burned. Obama is now in a general election campaign mode and turning things around at this point would be the best way to divide the party. They think it's divided now? That's nothing compared to what would happen if they overturn Obama's current lead. Then you would alienate an entire coalition and that is something that has been said more or less directly from party members as of late.
I'm willing to forgive Hillary and move on and make friends with Hillary supporters as the clear enemy are the Republicans...BUT not if they now overturn Obama's lead and momentum. Because really under the system, all the rules that Hillary also played by, Obama has won.
May 28, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, (2) is unlikely, (4) is very unlikely, and (5) is close to impossible given what's been happening for the last several months. As for (1), the FL and MI delegations will most probably wind up with half-votes. So, all in all, HRC really is the new Tonya Harding as suggested above.
May 28, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
One more thing: going to the convention would be fatal since it would create more division two months before the general election. The big problem with going to the convention is that it is in late August, that leaves September and October as the only full months to campaign AND heal the party.
Hillary has to let go...I know it's hard for her because she thought she would win this thing and probably had dreams about it. But she has to let go after June 3rd and think of the big picture. I have no problem with giving her all of Florida (even though there was no campaign) but no way can Michigan count as she wishes, of course many voted for her, she was the only name on the ballot.
May 28, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought she had to win both Texas and Ohio.
May 28, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
On top of all her negatives, she hasn't done anything to prepare for the general. All of her energy has been to take down Obama. So, if she happens to "win" the nomination, she's gonna get everything turned around in two months?
May 28, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Penn will whip together a winning plan!
May 29, 2008 12:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's ready to run from Day One.
May 29, 2008 4:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Hey guys, WONDER joints."
May 29, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
What she REALLY needs to do is a whole lot better than she did last February, after which it has been all over but the shouting.
Maybe she can borrow that Time Machine car that Michael J. Fox used in the 'Back to the Future' movies. Paging Dr. Emmett L. Brown!
May 29, 2008 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe she can also go back and tell herself to argue about michigan and florida when she had a chance to make a difference!
Gotta go back in time! Da na na dana dana dana!
May 29, 2008 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama should receive 65% of the votes in Florida and Michigan and Hillary should receive none. I think this is the fairest possible solution.
May 29, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this illogical, poorly written, delusional tripe can make the most recommended list maybe there really is hope for Hillary.
May 29, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Word.
May 29, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's last hope....is to raise another $10 mil in 24 hours like she said she did after PA.
:)
May 29, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
A meteor hitting Barack Obama would be more likely.
May 29, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tell me again what the tooth fairy said.
May 29, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
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