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Hillary VS Oregon......
Will the people of Oregon help hillary win???
ARG: Clinton: 45%
Obama: 50%
Suffolk: Clinton: 41%
Obama: 45%
Survey USA: Clinton: 42%
Obama: 55%
PPP(D): Clinton: 39%
Obama: 58%
Portland Tribune: Clinton: 35%
Obama: 55%
Rasmussen Report: Clinton: 39%
Obama: 51%
Looking at the above polls, the answer would appear to say that Obama is going to win.
Will Obama win by Double Digits???
That would depend on which poll you believe is more honest and truthworththy.
Could Hillary Clinton pull off a surprise Oregon Win???
That would depend on if ARG & Suffolk are correct when they show the race being tight in that state, with obama only holding a 4 to 5 point lead.
Comments (10)
Hillary vs. Oregon. Not Hillary for Oregon, or Oregon for Hillary? Didn't realize this was a battle between a politician and a state - thought it was a nomination. I stand corrected.
May 20, 2008 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since Oregon has mail-in ballots, I believe something like 60% of the voters have already voted. So you really can't look at the most recent polls and and read much into it.
I think Obama will win by about 5-6 points in Oregon, and get blown out in Kentucky by 20 points.
May 20, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone know what the Obama campaign is projecting in Oregon?
May 20, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interestingly enough, Obama's primary result prediction spreadsheet from last Feb only has him winning OR by 5 pts. Given the remarkable accuracy of this spreadsheet to date, that would argue in favor of the Suffolk Univ poll. On the other hand, the spreadsheet predicted a margin of only 8% in NC (in reality Obama won by ~15%) and a margin of only 12% in WV (in reality Clinton won by ~41%), so its accuracy is getting weaker in these later races. I guess that we will see how this one turns out.
May 20, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh fun prediction time
KY - Hillary by 19
OR - Obama by 13
May 20, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tim Hibbitts, a respected local pollster, had Obama up by 20 last week in Oregon. As of yesterday, 52% of dems had returned ballots, with the deadline being today.
No way a surprise win for Clinton will be pulled off. Double digits for Obama--15-18%.
May 20, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I predict that HilLIARy takes it to the convention, loses the vote, declares "this Convention is not over," launches write-in candidacy. I can't be alone in believing she will not go out standing up. I also predict that she will go into "seclusion" after the final blow. She has convinced millions of people that her numbers are accurate, that SHE is be cheated.
May 20, 2008 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am an eternal optimist (who says the Obama campaign has a lockdown on Hope?). I am hopeful Hillary'll surprise folks and make it a squeaker in Oregon - less than 5 points. It would be worth it to see Obama's speech in Iowa after being denied his premature declaration of victory.
Not saying this is likely - just my hopes :)
May 20, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
What are you talking about? No one was going to declare "victory" tonight one way or the other. Even if Obama carried Oregon 100 to 0 he would still not have won the race outright. He will climb into the overall lead in pledged delegates tonight, however, even if he were unexpectedly to lose in OR tonight. He only needs 16 delegates to reach that pledged delegate majority figure, so a narrow race in Oregon will not much cramp his style.
May 20, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
wtg dijamo.... i'm proud to hear you say that:)
May 20, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
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