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Hillary Supporters: If Obama would lose under the current conditions, why wouldn't Hillary (Not Hillary Hatred).
The argument goes that Hillary is the stronger candidate in the general, which has yet to begin. Even if we accept that she is the stronger candidate under the circumstances as they exist right now, wouldn't that change if she was able to become the nominee of the democratic party?
As of right now, Hillary supporters believe that Obama will not be able to unite the democratic party; legions of Hillary's 17 million supporters will not come home for Obama. We can accept this as true. Exits polls and regular polls reveal that large numbers of Hillary supporters will not vote for Barack. Those same polls reveal that smaller numbers of Barack supporters would not be willing to support Hillary in the general election. This is a positive factor for Hillary, but is it really?
Right now Hillary is losing. She may not lose, but she is losing by more measures than it can be argued she is winning. This is true no matter which side of the Obama/Hillary divide a person falls on.
Barack: more delegates, more states/contests, more supers (he has more of all of the above under all calculations). Hillary: Most votes (under some calculations).
If Hillary manages to win the democratic nomination, won't she simply be in the same position Barack is in right now, namely the nominee with a broken democratic coalition? The poll sumbers that show more Barack supporters willing to come home in the general are misleading, in my opinion. If Hillary gets the nod, there will be many who think she earned it. They have the right to this opinion and are not insane. There will be just as many who think she did not earn it. They also have the right to this opinion and are not insane. Still, the tides will have turned and it is likely that more of the Obama supporters will become bitter and step away from the process.
The situation we have here is that both of the remaining democrats are heading up coalitions that need the other and each would have extreme difficulty uniting the party in time for a November victory. Hillary's coalition is not stronger than Obama's, and Obama's is not stronger than Hillary's. A loss of either may doom the party in 2008. So, Hillary supporter, please tell me why a Hillary nomination is better than an Obama nomination at this point? Why is she more electable? Do you think Obama supporters would not reject her as the nominee? At this point, the argument of Hillary supporters renders both unelectable, in my opinion. I sincerely hope that we can elect a democrat but I will surely survive even if we do not. Anyway, thanks for stopping by :)
Comments (6)
1. She's either winning or neck and neck with the popular vote. Heads in the sand over the validity of MI and FL will assure another Republican President. Same goes for the caucus votes which are inaccurate and loaded toward Obama.
2. Those popular votes for her just happen to be in the battleground states. Thus...
3. She's winning the electoral votes: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May27.html
4. Earned delegates don't count anymore because neither candidate can get the required minimum number. If several Superdelegates come out for Obama and it puts him over the minimum number, it doesn't mean that other Superdelegates won't come out for Clinton and put her over Obama. With the polls and electoral numbers in Hillary's favor (she beats McCain better than Obama does, so the polls that show him ahead of her make no sense), it's more likely that will happen.
5. Her 17.5+ million supporters can yell just as loud as Obama's, all the way to the convention. If the shoe was on the other foot, you would want Obama to take this all the way if necessary.
That's why she can and will, and he can't and won't.
(It's good to be back. Y'all haven't changed a bit! What's your secret?)
May 28, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, I would not want Obama to take it to the convention. I would prefer that he take a step back and plan for 2016 (he would have been forced to step back already anyway). I would hope that he would reject any offer to become VP. I would not want him to associate himself with a Clinton White House and be overshadowed by Bill and destroyed by Hillary.
May 28, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you miss my point. If we are willing to accept that many Hillary supporters are willing to reject Barack as the nominee, all the polls and number cited would become meaning if she were to become the nominee. I contend that the number of Barack supporters who are willing to accept Hillary is high right now because they can be magnanimous about the whole deal. However, if Hillary were to win the nomination, Hillary could not count on those numbers to stay the same. Basically, the scenarion Clinton is using is that of someone who is well-loved, or more loved than she would actually be, because she is losing.
May 28, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't trust polls now for this reason - Hillary supporters are saying they will not vote for Obama even if they know they will because they believe it helps out their candidate in making her super-delegate argument. Obama backers on the other hand are trying to play "heal the wounds" and thus are saying they'd vote for either Democrat.
(Sure some Hillary supporters will not vote Barack for whatever reason, however the vast majority of the reported 17M will)
May 28, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, you're like talking facts and reason to the Shrillary cultists. Duh!
May 28, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is behind in the popular vote.
Hillary has less regular delegates.
Hillary has less super delegates.
Hillary has won less states.
Hillary has won less respect.
Hillary believes cheating is OK if she gets what she wants.
That last one by itself is why Obama should be president. We've had a relentless cheater in the Whitehouse for the last 16 years. It's time for someone with some scruples.
May 28, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
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