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Have Hillary and Dem Party Leaders Set a Trap for Obama?
I worry that Barack Obama might be alienating voters by ignoring (not campaigning) them and acting as though he’s won the Democratic nomination already by campaigning in states that have already voted.
I realize that most candidates start their general election after getting to the point that seems like an impossible reach by any other candidate; but everyone knows that Hillary Clinton is still claiming she can win this nomination. They know she’s close, but not close enough, according to the experts. So to a lot of her supporters and any undecided, they feel Hillary still has a chance; because she’s told them so.
As Obama points out, his campaign is very close to winning the 2025 amount of delegates required by the DNC rules. He lacks about 135 delegates.
All the experts say that Hillary would have to win 80% of the rest of the delegates in the next 5 states to win this thing. She just won by almost 70% in West Virginia last night; mainly because Obama didn’t campaign there. He visited once.
The question is; will she do as well in the next 5 primaries? Will voters be so angry at Obama for assuming he’s got their votes without ‘working’ for them? Or will they understand that he must start his campaign against John McCain now because McCain’s already had two months advance opportunity to work his general election?
Here’s another question; did Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Congressional leaders and the DNC meet awhile back to discuss the finishing process? Was Barack Obama told to go ahead and start his general election campaign? Forget about campaigning in these last states. You’ve won this thing. (Note the somewhat nicer tone by Hillary)
Was he told by Hillary’s camp and some in the leadership, that while he starts his general campaign, Hillary will just finish out the primaries to ‘help’ draw more newly registered voters? She’ll help the Party, sort of speak.
If so, could this be a trap by the Hillary Clinton camp? Are they thinking along the longs I mentioned earlier (will voters get angry at Obama for assuming their votes?)?
I’d be curious to hear your opinions on this.
Comments (16)
I don't think he really has a choice at this point. They have to start thinking about the general. (As do we.) However, it doesn't seem to me that he's foregoing campaigning in the remaining states. Should he have done more in WV? Probably.
It looks as though he has some events in SD, and Oregon coming up. As well as a rally in Michigan. He has to do some things in Florida and Michigan both as a wrap up to the primaries and as catch-up for the general. Additionally, Michelle Obama is campaigning in Puerto Rico. He also had an event in Kentucky yesterday.
May 14, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is he campaigning in Michigan on the chance he is forced to do a revote there? I'm betting if he goes to Florida soon -- that tells me that a redo is being disgust.
May 14, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, it's too late for a revote. But they're going to try to figure something out with the delegates.
May 14, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know they say that but never say never. The convention isn't till August.
I hope they don't.
The votes that were taken however, should also not be taken as they are. Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan and they didn't campaign in Florida.
At that time, Obama wasn't very well known. He still isn't. Hillary's had 35 years of exposure in Florida -- of course she would win under those circumstances. Obama's lucky he drew 33% of that vote back then.
If he had known they would COUNT -- he would have campaigned in both States. Same thing with popular vote. He would have campaigned differently if he'd known it was about popular vote and not Delegates as Hillary herself declare it was in the beginning.
May 14, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I don't think they're setting a trap or anything like that - hope not anyway. Obama, whose got a donor list 1.5 million strong - so far! - is way more important,I believe, to the elected Dems (read: Superdelegates) than the GE is anyway.
That list and Obama's fund-raising ability can keep the Dems in power across the board for quite awhile. They'd be crazy to turn around and stab him in the back like that - he's the party's future...
Also, gotta wonder how a huge chunk of the elected Dems actually feel about the Clintons anyway...They've been the Dem powercouple for sometime and have made a few people...um...unhappy. Sometimes, I think there's almost as many Dems who want to see HRC break her face as would want to see her win the nomination.
May 14, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the only thing that lets me sleep at night. The super delegates will most certainly look after their own best interests, which is Barack Obama elected president.
May 14, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama is doing what he has to do. As much as we may not like it, we have to treat FL and MI as the most important remaining states in this race. If he can still influence the outcome of those contests, I'd rather he focus on that than spend time cutting losses in WV.
The Clintons just keep harassing him. If it's not one thing, it's another. If he spent too much time in WV, they'd say he doesn't care about the voters of FL and MI. And vice versa.
If he followed the Clintons ever-changing narratives of which states are the most important, he'd be like a pinball being sent in random directions every two seconds.
I do wish his campaign would make more of an effort to knock the wind out of the sails of the absurd election scenarios being trumpeted by Terry M and Howard Wolfson in the MSM nearly 24 hours a day.
The Obama campaign's comparative silence makes it seem like they'll be weak defenders of a fair Democratic primary process.
May 14, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just because your paranoid doesn't mean their really not out to get you ;)
May 14, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know up to yesterday Obama has ran a historical campaign, taking on the Dem establishment, as well as two of it's most power players -- and he's apparently won.
I guess I have to trust that he knows what he's doing when he ignores the upcoming 5 states.
I know I would be ticked off if he ignored my state. I'd still vote for him tho.
May 14, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know up to yesterday Obama has ran a historical campaign, taking on the Dem establishment, as well as two of it's most power players -- and he's apparently won.
I guess I have to trust that he knows what he's doing when he ignores the upcoming 5 states.
I know I would be ticked off if he ignored my state. I'd still vote for him tho.
May 14, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama visited WV 3 times.
May 14, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's not ignoring states. Is it better to campaign hard and lose big or to campaign not so hard and still lose big? West Virginia and Kentucky are tailor made for Hillary. He's campaigned pretty hard in Oregon and he'll campaign in South Dakota and Montana as well. He's just using his time wisely in states that he'll need come November.
May 14, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard he visited just once, on Sunday I believe. Sorry If I got that wrong. But still, getting that win of hers down to about 25 at most would have been much better -- just my opinion.
May 14, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
some decks are just stacked against you.....even if he did campaign, i don't think that demographic would have changed their opinion any.....i expect him to do a little better with KY, but all in all, it is a HRC state and for the same reasons given in WV, she will win KY. PR will probably go to her also, but by smaller margin I think.
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i think he was trying to downplay west virginia's significance, thereby making it more difficult for hrc and the media to use it as the next goal post. i think it worked to a certain degree. she sounds like a ranting lunatic grasping at straws over West Virginia. A win is a win though, no matter how delusional she is.
May 14, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Leaving the SDs out of it...
Obama leds pledged delegates by 153. Clinton needs 82% of remaining 235 delegates (60-KY, 65-OR, 63-PR,24-MT, 23-SD) to tie Barack at 1640.
If Obama only gets 50% of delegates in Oregon, South Dakota and Montana and only 25% in Puerto Rico and Kentucky--which is what I would call a conservative estimate-he would still be ahead by 91 delegates. If he gets 55% in the Western states, he'd lead by 102.
Any way you slice it (realistically) the final result is very close, but he still wins. We've known that for weeks and weeks.
May 14, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just for the record, here are Obama's share of the pledged delegate breakdowns for other western/plains states:
ID-83%
ND-62%
WY-61%
NE-58%
UT-67%
May 14, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
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