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Guess the Date Hillary Will Suspend Her Campaign -- a TPM Contest
Some Democrats think Hillary could withdraw her campaign any day now. Others think she will wait until June 4 -- the day after the last primary. Still others think she will wait until after enough superdelegates have announced their support for Obama so that he is put over the top (2025 or 2026). Others think Hillary will wait until the decision regarding the seating of Florida and Michigan delegations is final. And there are those who think she will hold out until the Democratic convention itself (August 25 to August 28).
So let's all record our best guess as to when she will withdraw here on this thread. Recommend the post, and we can see who the winners are after the contest is over. The only prize: your fellow TPM netizens will bow in worshipful praise of your genius.
OK. Here's my guess: June 9, 9 a.m. EST
Comments (17)
June 9 you say, but which year??
May 16, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
he he. 2008, silly. I think the networks will "call" the nomination for Obama once he reaches the magic 2025 number. Or is it 2026? Then Hillary should say adios. I sure hope it's not much later than that.
May 16, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
May 20th, whenever she gives her victory speech in Kentucky.
May 16, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you, honey.
Not to mention the fact that I made a $50 bet with my friend David over a month ago that Hillary would back out before the end of May and I really don't want to have to pay up...
May 16, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right after the first (and only) vote at the Convention. (That makes it August 25th, right?) Once she's lasted to June 3rd and the last primary, there's really no reason for her to suspend her campaign. 99+% of the primary funds will have been spent, and the only campaigning she would be expected to do is for the general, which she already has the funds for. I expect/hope that we'll see more of the Hillary we've seen over the last 24 hours or so where she's attacking only McCain, and is even defending Obama when the situation calls for it.
So, her primary campaign might continue in name only, but I don't expect her to officially suspend it until the Convention (if that can be called "suspending" it).
May 16, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll go with Ben. If she hasn't stopped until now, she won't stop until it's really, officially, irrevocably over.
May 16, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll go with the Convention date (Aug 25) as well. Staying in until the Convention gives her maximum flexibility to raise funds to pay off her campaign debt. As I understand it, if she drops out early she cannot raise funds to pay off the debt after the Convention; if she stays in, she can raise funds indefinitely. I also hope that her campaign is constructive during this period.
May 16, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree. After the primaries are over and superdelegates put Obama over the magic number, Hillary has every reason to concede. Howard Dean wants a nominee by the end of June. Her own campaign said that a nominee will be picked in June. Hillary wants to help the party to win and preserve her own credibility in the Democratic party. If she wants to advance to Senate Majority Leader or run again in 2012, she has to bow out as soon as there is a nominee (I think that's after Brian Williams says "NBC now projects Barack Obama has won 2026 delegates, and with that accomplishment, the nomination of the Democratic party.") No way she stays in until the convention. Just no way.
May 16, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd wager 2:1 (if I were the betting kind) against you. That doesn't mean I think you're definitely wrong, just that I think you're more likely to be wrong than to be right.
Anyways, we'll find out soon enough!
May 16, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That said, I think she will keep it 100% positive (towards Obama, not McCain) after May 31st, if not sooner—for the reasons you mentioned.
May 16, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was going to say after the May 31 rules meeting in which what to do with Fla. And Mich. is settled (IF it is settled, and if the decision is anything other than giving all delegates full vote, all HRC delegates to her, and no Mich. delegates to BHO). but then I remembered there's another primary in early June. So assuming the above, after that early June primary.
If she emerges a winner of the MI/FL delegate fight, then all the way to the convention.
May 16, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
June 4, after she's stood up for democracy and everyone has voted. (that's snark by the way).
If she doesn't, the supers will do it for her. She has behaved well since WV. Bill has not, Larry Johnson has not. She needs to signal to her surrogates that it is over or they will continue to try to damage Obama.
Although he's been so masterful the last few days people may not notice. He has shown a sharper, Obama-way of hitting the Repubs, Bush and McCain.
But she will wait until after the last primary.
Until then, I stay wary.
May 16, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Today, she's asked her supporters to launch what is essentially an email assault on the DNC about seating MI and FL in full.
Didn't they already concede the nomination by saying they won't catch up to Obama's delegate lead?
May 16, 2008 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, what do you expect? She's still in the race, so she's got to try to win, right? Or at least keep looking like she believes she has a chance? She is committed to pleading the case that FL and MI delegations should be seated. She has every right to be doing that. And none of that is an attack on Obama. It so happens many Democrats -- including this Obama supporter -- happen to think that Florida voters shouldn't be disenfranchised. Obama will win even if FL and MI are counted.
May 16, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
January 23, 2009, 3 a.m.
May 16, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
She drops when Obama reaches the 2025 number, and hopefully not before.
Otherwise she'll look like a quitter and disappoint a lot of people. She's got to keep going because it's the winner's way, otherwise she suffers from premature electulation -- and we all know how awful that is!!
May 16, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't Wolfson or McAuliff say 'mid-June'? That gives her three and a half weeks to try and make her case AFTER Obama exceeds even the higher half-mark pledged-delegate bar on May 20 through a reasonable claim that most of the Edwards pledged delegates should count for Obama along with those won in Oregon and Kentucky.
Clinton will use the first eleven days after May 20 and before May 31 to (a) make the case that Edwards pledged delegates should not count for Obama; and (b) that her 13 loyalists on the Rules Committee must seat full delegations in MI and FLA and that this must include zero delegates [or popular votes] for Obama from MI.
When that attempt fails on May 31 after a tie breaker from one or both of the Rules Committee chairs, she will then use the next two weeks to try to stop the flood of Supers to Obama [convinced by his majority of pledged delegates even after the new half-way mark is set on 5/31] by claiming a popular vote win.
She will attempt to sell this over those two weeks by arguing that Obama should not be credited with any voters from Michigan or any estimated votes from any of the caucus states [because caucus goers are not true voters] but that all of the voters in Puerto Rico should be counted, making Hilary the "popular vote winner" thru magical math.
Then two weeks later --
on Friday the Thirteenth of June, Hilary will concede.
May 16, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
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