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Gastonia, NC shows the conventional wisdom on Obama is wrong
It was a dark and stormy night... at the bottom of the ninth, one team runs the clock out in the fourth quarter, winning a split decision. The result? All sports metaphors are banned forever.
Hillary Clinton only won Gaston County by 53-45. I thought that our good old Gashouse would deliver something like a 70-30 rebuke to Mr. Obama. It is the profile of a "white working class" town, and, according to Wikpedia, its demographics mirror the national figures to some extent. (The estimation that only 3% of the county's population is Latino seems absurd to me. They obviously haven't counted everybody.) The fact that Clinton didn't wipe Obama out in a county with this ethnic makeup is significant for two reasons.
Many commentators (including yours truly) started to notice a while ago that Obama did well in states that were mostly white, and in states where there was a large African America population. Everyone was surprised when Obama scored a big victory in Iowa, and then cleaned up in one "lilywhite" state after another -- Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, etc. When he won smashing victories in places like South Carolina and Mississippi, people said that wasn't too surprising. There were enough black voters there to overcome a white landslide for Clinton. However, people began to see that in states like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or New York, where African Americans represent 10 to 15 percent of the population, Obama could not seem to pull it out.
Now, Gaston County has an African American population (13.87%) that is slightly higher than the national average, but it falls squarely into the category of "racially polarized" areas that Obama has fared poorly in generally. Its median income is also significantly lower than the national average ($48,000 vs $39,000). It has historically been a milltown; when various factories have closed, there some new jobs in heavier industry (like Freightliner) that came, and everyone else either got a job at Wal-Mart or a white-collar deal in Charlotte. I once gave Pat Buchanan some socialist literature when I was a teenager and he was stumping in front of a John Deere factory that had closed and moved to Mexico. It's that sort of place.
The whole story recently has been about how Obama can win African American votes, the professors, the kids, upscale voters with white guilt, independents, some Republicans, and your cousin Pootie, but he can't win in white working class areas that have fallen on hard times. He didn't win in Gastonia, but he did better than one would expect using this set of assumptions; and his vote totals in the western part of NC, in the mountains, were lopsided losses. With the exception of Buncombe (Asheville) and Watauga (Boone), both 55%-44%, both with college towns, Obama lost like 70-30 in most areas. This falls in line with his big losses in Tennessee, western VA, and other Appalachian areas. Of course, you can afford to lose by 8,000 votes (a 75-25% split) in a mountain county when you're rolling up a 38,000 margin in Durham.
Also, who wants Chuck Todd t-shirts?
Comments (25)
People aren't as stupid as some would believe. I don't live far from Gastonia. Gaston County, from a county perspective, is far more progressive then people know. I know quite a few rural poor whites who are going to vote for Obama and who have voted for him in primaries. I haven't looked at the county totals. I'd bet he won Mecklenburg, but lost places like Cleveland.
May 7, 2008 8:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, Obama lost Cleveland by about the same margin as Gaston, if I remember correctly. Gastonia could be described as progressive in some ways -- it's certainly far more diverse and urban than certain areas a little further west. (As soon as you hit Rutherford, you get into 60-40 loss territory.) Gastonia is on the Interstate and falls into the greater cultural orbit of Charlotte. But it's also been a reliably Republican district for a long time, prone to a fair amount of Klan grandstanding, and it gave the world Rep. Patrick McHenry (shudder). My mom said she saw only one other Obama bumper sticker in Gastonia.
Where are you located, roughly? How did things go down there in the last week?
May 7, 2008 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Im in Upstate South Carolina, but have lived/spent time in Shelby, Charlotte etc. I get Charlotte tv and radio as well as Asheville. Actually the news has been much better out of NC than down here. Bill Clinton has been hitting places like Gastonia for more than a month- I'd view the Clinton loss as a major upset and exposure of Bill's lack of influence.
Obama's commercials have been nonstop on local outlets too. I saw the Maya Angelou commercial once and another gas hillbill commercial once.
I would be living in Gastonia now but the builder took too long to move on my offer and I went further south. Gastonia has the Charlotte Metro's worst schools but I'd say their county infrastructure is pretty good considering the area. Yeah Rutherford is probably McCain territory.
How did Asheville come out? I've heard they are turning into a melting pot of sorts but I've seen things to the contrary.
May 7, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The area around Asheville has been historically pretty conservative from what I understand, but the county came out for Obama in a big way -- 11 point victory there and in Watauga (Boone), presumably both resulting from the college students and profs. Considering Obama's "Appalachian problem," those results were pretty reassuring. My friend Antonio, who can't vote, did his best to get folks out to the polls. He reported some conflicting signals:
"on my way to lunch yesterday i had to drive by two voting places and there were hordes of hillary supporters with signs to one or two obama supporters. it was a little dispiriting. but ashevillians love to plaster their cars with bumper stickers, and his popularity is apparent there. and though unca doesn't hand out obama stickers, i always watch for the unca parking permit when i see one of his 'change' bumper stickers. sure enough, lots of them have it."
He also said that George Clinton gave a big shout-out at his concert in Asheville last night:
"these times...
...i'm worried...
...i'm worried...
but i do believe in god...
...and i believe in choice.
if you don't like the effect...
you strike out the cause.
if you don't like the effect...
you strike out the cause, ya'll.
we are one nation
under a motherfuckin' dream;
one nation...
under a motherfuckin' dream, ya'll.
one nation
under a mother
fucking
dream!
obama!
obama!
obama!"
May 7, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn That's one Clinton I don't hate. Wow Asheville by 11? Asheville, Charlotte and GSP are all on the lists of safe cheap places to move. There is a wagontrain of middle class AA's to the area. But he must have tapped into more than students and black folk to win that big.
May 7, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post. The press will keep trying to sell this race line all the way to November. I think it has less to do with race and more to do with locale.
As it was with that "Mason-Dixon" line that Chuck Tod ineptly named in Indiana last night. Obama did better on one side than the other and it had nothing to do with race.
There are communities like the one you mention that are working class, white, old even, and yet, progressive. There are also many that are more conservative. The media, by painting all these communities with such a wide brush, colors them all racist. It's not true, and I think it behooves all progressives to do what you've done here, and begin highlighting these communities that are white, working class, and competitive for Obama. It will be an important way to dissuade those who seek to divide us.
May 7, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know how many times I've heard Tim Russert or Chris Matthews say something about the "white ethnic, blue collar, working class guy in Scraaaaanton," but it makes my skin crawl. I think it behooves us all to remember that a variety of shades of skin pop out from behind blue collars all through this country. I grew up in Flint, Michigan, which is one of the most blue collar places you'll ever find. My dad still lives there. And everywhere you go, there are the tell-tale signs of GM cutting and running. It's not just white neighborhoods, believe me. We need to remind blue collar voters that, despite what the GOP may have promised them, and despite how they may have responded at the ballot box in the past, Republican policies have never benefitted them after election day...
May 7, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
What has always made me cringe when I hear MSM tout that line, is that AA's are working class, too. It's so insulting, they should all have lost their jobs over it. It's this low level of discourse that is so destructive for this country.
But we took a step in the right direction last night.
May 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are a lot of closed textile mills in Gaston County.
May 7, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
So maybe a good bit of the 40-45% who pulled for Obama in places like Gaston and Cleveland were former Edwards' supporters?
Here's my question: assuming the demographics are basically equal to other areas (race, income, education, gender), what accounts for their leaning more progressive ?
Seems to me a key aspect of this race in the general is going to be about emphasizing our shared American values and about delivering the promise of the dream for everybody, irrespective of race, gender, class, or any ideology, and underscoring (for independents and unaffiliated voters especially) that this election is less about partisanship than it is about how we act on our values through good government.
We are going to need some Republicans to crossover in order to win, so it has to stay focused on what we have in common, rather than the differences.
I recall seeing a Pew study done last year that showed how people's views were much more "progressive" than they themselves might even realize, and how a larger majority of people across the country are in agreement on those issues, too. So it would stand to reason that emphasizing what we have in common - our shared values - would be more effective than emphasizing partisan values and party identity.
We'll draw more bees with honey than with vinegar.
May 7, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
These were the kinds of numbers I was tracking last night in both IN and NC: Hillary still won her counties handily, but with a significantly smaller margin than she had in PA and OH. To see Obama pull 35% support (about the worst outcome in the vast majority of counties) and pull within 15%, 12% in other counties where Hillary should have dominated -- there was an important shift last night.
Now, why was it all so effective for her in PA and OH? The attacks on Obama were new and there was uncertainty as to his ability to withstand them. That meme is changing, and changing significantly.
She also did poorly with women, based on past elections: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/7/112410/1487/624/510921
Women heart "obliterate Iran" and saw what Hillary has consistently done throughout the campaign -- go one step too far, plunging the knife a little too deep. It's us-against-them rhetoric about her harebrained McHillary gas tax holiday -- Democratic women don't want to see a female George Bush. And I suspect a few Republican women as well who crossed over to vote for Obama.
She blew it. She blew it big. The Clintons lurch from one immediate political goal to the next, with no sense of the consequences. It's one of the reasons I had pretty much decided I could not vote for her -- I believe she has terrible instincts and inclinations that would make her a terrible president.
She squandered her already paltry support with AA voters to half of what it was in OH. That's a stunning feat. Although Garin today is saying that blacks really don't count -- only the white vote.
There's just so much of that Democratic women can take. And their overall support for Hillary in IN -- down to 2, 3%.
Wow.....
May 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
"She blew it. She blew it big. The Clintons lurch from one immediate political goal to the next, with no sense of the consequences. It's one of the reasons I had pretty much decided I could not vote for her -- I believe she has terrible instincts and inclinations that would make her a terrible president."
I heartily agree! This is one of the main reasons I turned from HRC a few months ago. (That, and her baggage.)
Also, I think she really lost some women voters with her ill conceived gas tax holiday. This fake proposal did not fool women voters. Nope. Women are just smarter than that!
May 7, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I completely agree... I too was struck by how Clinton's margin in certain places was not as dramatic as one would expect. Even in counties with a similar demographic makeup as places where she destroyed him in OH and PA.
I don't know how much of this shift can be attributed to the changing fortunes of the campaign narrative, and how much of it is built into the difference between OH/PA and IN/NC. My guess is that there was just a lot less of a built-in Democratic base in the two recent states than in PA; while canvassing on primary day, we saw the ardent (one might say rabid) traditional white Democrats stumping for Hillary in NE Philly. There are many fewer of those folks, who feel really fondly toward the Clintons, in many parts of IN and NC, where the larger part of the Democratic base is African American.
How much do you think the open/semi-open status of these primaries contributed to Obama's improved margins? I know friends of friends in NC who changed their registration to participate in Operation Chaos, but I know of significantly more Republicans who sincerely switched over to vote for the O.
May 7, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Todd has consistently been the smartest talking head throughout this whole primary process.
May 7, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Todd deserves a medal. He's seriously amazing.
May 7, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I grew-up in Gastonia. A heartland area if there ever was such a place. Minor league baseball and little league football teams named after times of the day. Conversely, lots of stoners (I've heard it called Getstonia) and terrible poverty in some areas.
May 7, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I used to call Gastonia the Cradle of Civilization when I was growing up there... it is definitely a weird mix of stoners, good old boys, genuine eccentrics, educated bourgeoisie, recent immigrants (Laotian, Vietnamese, Pakistani, Nicaraguan kids in my school, even in the early 90s). Where did you go to high school?
May 7, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey all of you North Carolinians! (I'd say Tar Heels, but as an Illinois basketball fan I'm still in post-2005 denial) -- question for you
Are we going to win NC, will it be close, in play and a likely loss, or not truly in play, a replay of Gantt/Helms? I'd give us a close to 50/50 on it, but I've spent about two hours in that state in my life, and live far, far to the west.
May 7, 2008 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll take an Akbar t-shirt. That's some fine analysis -- thanks for posting!
May 7, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for listening! :)
May 7, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I moved from Getstonia at the end of the fifth grade, so I didn't go to highschool there. My Elementary school was Gardner Park - and I have very fond memories of that place - lots of fun activities like soap box derbies.
I did have the opportunity to return there as an adult while I was a union organizer. That's when I came face-to-face with the intense poverty that I didn't see growing-up. Dirt roads and shack like homes.
May 7, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who did you work with? UAW? Gastonia has such a profound tradition of intense anti-unionism, and it's amazing that such progress has been made on the labor front. I can only imagine the sort of prejudice you faced in your union work.
Yeah, I remember my 4th grade teacher filling in for a friend at Gardner Park for a few days and coming back and telling us that they were good kids and we should be more like them.
May 7, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
My cousin Pootie still voted for Clinton.
May 7, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget VT: the whitest state in the country.
May 7, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Appalachian Region. That's the core of Obama's trouble as they apparently don't like him at all. Look at the states there, and unless there is some mitigating factor (like in the PA Appalachia) that is where he loses 75-25.
May 7, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
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