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From the ground in IN
I am now officially an Obama supporter. I voted early for him yesterday (So did the woman next to me who let that admission slip in a conversation with her friend. Older, white woman by the way).
Anyway, I'm in the college town of Lafayette, and as you can expect there is a lot of support for Obama on campus. I'm a professor at Purdue University (Chemistry, just so you know I'm not trying to be some policy wonk, just what I see), and while I try very hard not to influence my students with my personal politics, it's also very hard to ignore the student organization for Obama. This is a fairly conservative campus, but the organization for Obama is fierce. I haven't personally seen a single flyer, rally, meeting call for Clinton on campus (or McCain for that matter, but that could be justified in that he is garunteed the nomination). Many for Obama. I will let you interpret that as you will.
The television ads in this market are just starting to go 2:1 for Obama. Clinton was following most Obama ads (leading a few) early in the week. Friday and Saturday I personally haven't seen any. Please take this with a grain of salt, I'm only trying to report 'what I've seen' as a viewer in IN.
Instead, something more intersting has been cropping up. Almost half of Obama ads that I've seen have been followed imediately by American Leadership Project Ads. Most of the early (Thursday and Friday) Obama ads have been hitting Clinton on the gas-tax-holiday. About half of these have been immediately followed by the American Leadership Project sponsered ads that say that Obama doesn't offer specifics, and they give a number to call to 'force' Obama to give specifics on his policy issues. The intersting thing is that they give a Washington DC number (202 area code) to call rather than the free number from his campaign web site. I'll call the number at some point when I can catch the ad (if even can anymore) and see where it leads.
Furthermore, you can see Obama ads pretty much everywhere. Network channels and cable channels (much of my viewing is on cable channels, take that for what you will)
Now, the above was Thursday/Friday. Today, things have begun to shift a bit. The ads are closer (I believe snipits of) to the 'closer ads' Obama has for IN and NC. So not any immediate ALP follow-ups. But he has a great line in those ads: "Politics didn't lead me to working people, working people lead me to politics". That's a great line and it's going to resonant here in IN.
Obama had a big speech today in Indianapolis. I've read the text, it's a humdinger and getting almost no coverage nationally, or locally (I'm not in the Indy market). You can read the full speech here:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/amandascott/gGCSJF
It's clear from the Jefferson-Davis speech of last night and the speech in Indy he's going back to the inspirational tone, but with more policy/personal details. I think this spells trouble for Clinton.
Finally, don't forget that Indiana is an open primary where Democrats, Rebulicans, and Independents can vote for whomever they want. This is going to favor Obama despite 'Operation Chaos'
As far as the 'Magnequench Plant' goes: Haven't seen anything yet from the local news (help here if I'm wrong). I refuse to buy the local paper, not because they're crap, but because we have our own 'Scaife' here in IN and he owns not just the newspapers, but TV channels as well. I won't go into that now.
In summary, I feel really good. I think the polls are crap and I think it's because they undersample Republicans and Independents (like myself). From where I sit there is a really good vibe for Obama in this state, and I personally think it will be His New Hampshire.
Thanks All.
cb
Comments (26)
Thanks for the info. Good stuff.
May 3, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the view, cb - it's much appreciated from here in Hillaryland (New York).
May 3, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I thought they've been polling pretty close there (NY) recently...
May 3, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are the students rallying around that gorgeous fountain y'all have on campus?
May 3, 2008 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which one? The one that roars, or the one that's been capped off because of the fear of law-suits?
May 3, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This does sound good, but a cautionary note....
I live in a college town here in PA, and our county went for Obama in the primary 60-40. But you may remember "Bittergate", and the first Rev. Wright flap hit Obama hard among poor (under $50K), white, less educated of all genders, and especially women. Clinton won by 54.6% to 45.4%, mainly because Bittergate (they ARE bitter, and they all have guns, but they don't like to be reminded of it) and the hidden racial code inherent in the Wright controversy polarized the race to a large extent.
I'm from Ohio originally, but don't know Indiana all that well. What's happening outside of the college towns, and in the northwest/Chicago media market?
May 3, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two things. I can tell you that the areas around Chicago (Hammond, Gary, Whiting) are going for Obama big time because of the AA vote. The 'Whiter' areas of that region like Merriville and Schererville will too. Most of those people work in IL and view themselves serrogate IL people. South Bend is a college town, but heavily Catholic...probably Clinton. Bloomington is flaming liberal (and I mean that in a good way) will probably go Obama. Mucie is a college town, but very conservative, and as such I'd think they'll go for Obama.
Lafayette is a college town that isn't (Purdue is in West Lafayette, technically). There is a lot of industry in this town and it's not in the greatest shape economically. This is Clinton territory. But the people here don't put up with BS. They are excatly the type of demographic that would buy into the gas-tax-holiday arguement that Clinton is proposing. BUT, they've never really had a candidate explain that the gas-tax-holiday will save them so little.
I think that most rural people in IN follow this and care about the price of gas. It will depend on how well we can spread the message that the gas-tax-holiday is bogus. I think if Obama frames the tax cut in terms of lost jobs he'll have a great arguement here. He's starting to do this, but in my opinion he should have been doing this a week ago.
This is where Clinton is really strong. She knows that if Obama campaigns on the issues and changing DC she's cooked. So what she tries to do (and has done effectivly) is change the topic. Here, now in in IN, the topic is saving money on gas. It will all depend on how Obama can re-direct the message, i.e. you can feel good now and be miserable later, or you can suck it up now and work for you children.
The later is a powerful message here. Most people in the midwest, whether they know it or not, want their children to be better off.
It's really going to come down to how well Obama can sell that message AND how the media will sell that message for Obama. I read the transcript of his speech in Indy, man is it good. But the real question is if the media will broadcast it. Probably not. But I've seen the IN 'Closing Argument' ads that Obama has and I think those will go over very well. However, I haven't seen those ads on TV yet here.
I could try and analyze on and on an on. And I'll probably be wrong. But IN has an open primarary and I think that is really going to help Obama. I know this only adds to your confusion, welcome to the primaries. I voted early for Obama yesterday and I felt great about it. For the first time in my life I felt that I voted, not just for a candidate who shared my issues, but cared about human beings in general.
May 3, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
chaunceybaker, you sound much wiser than chauncygardner. And I think you are doing your students a disservice by not trying to influence them. I'll bet they look to you for more than complex molecules. As a Chemistry professor you may not be a policy wonk, but you certainly are an observational one. Thank you so much for the sketch of your neck of the woods.
May 4, 2008 5:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, thanks for the detailed perspective. It seems Obama is facing a uniquely Obama problem, the media, especially TV News, that won't report his points. I wonder if there are ways to get the message out to the audience besides sound-bites and running expensive ads?
May 4, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's what we are doing here. We just need to make sure it gets back to all those in our personal networks who aren't political junkies.
May 4, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be surprised if Obama wins Indiana actually.
May 3, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only thing we can do here is help him mobilize support. I'll be doing that DESPITE my busy schedule. That's how important it is to me. Whether he wins or loses is out of my hands at that point. At least I'll know I've done all I can.
May 3, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I certainly didn't mean to attack or diminish the work you and your like are putting in, it's just an uphill battle right now. Those victories are usually the sweetest. If Obama wins Indiana and keeps NC, Clinton is finished.
May 4, 2008 12:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting info about the ALP ads running right after the Obama spots.
I would guess the timing is deliberate and wonder if the Obama campaign has any control over placement.
May 3, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I KNOW! It has to be deliberate because I saw it three times last night (at least). It is absolutely deliberate. I realized that this morning, and haven't seen the same add today following BO ads (and I've been looking but timing is the key and I'm only one, lonely, fool). This may be key though. The ALP doesn't have money to carry it through the weekend (but I still wish I had that damn phone number!), and the BO campaign does. You know what? I'm going to give him the benefit of doubt and donate $25 to his campaign tonight. Thank you.
cb
May 3, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's possible to target specific slots for ad placement. It's also expensive - costs much more than simple random runs.
May 4, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not if the same guy owns all of the newspapers and TV stations. Chauncey mentioned the Scaife-like character upthread.
May 4, 2008 12:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
ARGH!
TAKE THE WENCH HILLARY AND SHOW HER THE CORN PONE!
WHO SIR?
YOU SIR!
INTO THE BREECH WITH YE, AND THE CHELLY SEA!
ACQUIRE! MERGE! MARAUD! DILUTE! DILUTE!
ARGH!
May 3, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for letting us know.
I went by his site earlier this evening and dropped some money. I hope he keeps it up. I watched him speak at the J&J Dinner last night on CSPAN. He's going inspirational again with economic substance. Good for him. I'm afraid that she will take IN by a itty bitty margin. I hope it's only my fear.
May 4, 2008 1:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
In Southern Indiana and over here on the Sunnyside of Louisville we have had a lot of late deciders and they are really going for Clinton. Once people see her or her surrogates they are just knocked out by how great Hillary is and get excited to vote for her. And they drag their husbands in and get them to vote for her too, It's really cute. Education hasn't been a big topic on the news but a number of people here said they liked her for that. I asked one older gentleman why he was voting for Hillary and he said, "Cause she forgave Bill, and we need forgivin'." Wow! The farmers like her because they say she was good for NY farmers. I didn't even know NY had any farmers. The Obama supporters down here look sort of sad and shell-shocked. Bad week for those folks. Let everyone vote. Count every vote. I hear they're having a recount in Guam since Obama won by 7 but like 500 ballots went missing or something. Uh oh. Obama and his drama. Exhausting! They tracked the smear of Mickey Kantor back to a CA Obama guy. Bet Mickey sues his butt off! Figures that Obama would fall back on politics as usual when his hope anthem collapsed. At least he brought his own troubles on himself with the bitter remark and Rev. Wright. Obama can't blame his troubles on Hillary now. He did himself in, and his supporters helped. Obama 2016!
May 4, 2008 4:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's Indianapolis speech is up on You Tube. Here's the link and it's great!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wf8N1Ucfb7E
Also, here's the telephone number from the 527 ads:
202-224-2854
Thanks for the info from Indie!
May 4, 2008 7:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is a very powerful speech and it is rightly titled Closing Arguments.
We must not let what divides us keep us from being the greatest nation on earth. We are one people. One nation. One voice. This is our America! We can rise up as one in this democracy and take back our government and country.
Yes. We. Can.
May 4, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was on the ground working in Pennsylvania and a week later in North Carolina and met many of the same late deciding demographic mentioned in the post above by dishwhit. A world of difference. In Pennsylvania, people I met would agree with Obama on many of the issues, but the anger generated by Wright was preventing many of these voters from closing the decision in his favor. At this point, voters have realized that the candidate's pastor is not the central point of this campaign, and we are getting back to a real evaluation of the policies and strategies offered by the two candidates. Real issues are on the table again - gas tax, Iran, food prices, the war, the environment, etc. On this territory, Obama's support has stabilized and he is regaining ground ... and will close in his camp.
May 4, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
i live on the illinois border and the above poster is really off base about OBAMA/Chicago and indiana's border ties. i have lived here all my life work in both states and play in both. border towns of indiana are NOT chicago and take pride in saying son. i think you will find that out on tuesday. hammond, munster, merrillville and michigan city are closer to ohio and the PA suburbs menatality.
a lot of racial tension here. gary will probably go obama but the turn out will not be high enough to offset the rest of the state. these folks are not into going to get out for the polls. they have their own distracting crime/poverty problems and social issues. hell many folks don't vote in primaries period and don't care who wins as long as it is a democrat. a lot of blacks still love hilliary and bill here and want the economic days of the 90's back.
to assume OBAMA has a lock on this area is a real stretch of the imagination.
May 4, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michelle,
I don't know where you live, but I lived in Cal City on the Hammond border for years. This area is nothing like PA or OH. As a matter of fact the electorate identifies more with Obama's Chicago south side creds than any other. They remember the steel plants closing as they were all along the Lake Michigan border in IL as well as IN. It has been my experience that places like Hammond and Gary will identify with Obama like a hometown son. That was not possible in PA or OH where Hillary had political machines running in outrageous numbers.
While I will admit there is some racial tension, it is very small in comparison to southern area's like New Orleans. Heck there is even racial tension in the Chicagoland area, not to mention the overwhelmingly white downstate voters. That didn't stop Obama from winning in large proportions when elected for both the IL and US senate.
May 4, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the most powerful line in this speech and his ad is:
Politics did not lead me to workers, workers led me to politics.
May 4, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
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