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Five Reforms for the Democratic Party's Primary Process
As part of the continuing effort to write something interesting about the campaign that cannot be turned into a Clinton-Obama yellfest foodfight . . . the historic 2008 Democratic primary fight has pointed up oddities, irregularities, and opportunities for change in the process by which the party selects a nominee. Here are some suggestions for reform of it, please add your own:
5. Let's Disenfranchise Places That Aren't States Or Washington DC. Sorry, Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and most especially Puerto Rico. You don't need 100 delegates in our process. That our process gives Puerto Rico more delegates than Oregon is insane. Sure, we worry more about Puerto Rico seceding since Oregon is hemmed in by Washington, Idaho, and California, but still. Do we feel that guilty about using Vieques as a bombing range? This one is past head-scratching and on into nutty. Also, why does Guam have five superdelegates, nearly as many as Idaho? Oh, no good answer to that? How surprising. I like British Columbia, but it should have the same number of nominating delegates as places we don't let vote in November. Zero. The idea of Puerto Rico providing a popular vote margin at the end of the primary season that tips this nomination to _anyone_ should make any rational person want some reform here.
4. Superdelegates Should Not Be Abolished Entirely, But Should Be Limited To Senators, Congresspersons, and ex-Presidents. It is incredible to focus upon the fact that 20% of the votes (and in a proportionality-oriented system that privileges marginal votes in designedly close races, _way_ more than 20% of the power) is vested in a handful of persons. One of the great frustrations in this process is that the votes of superdelegates make the loser feel that the process was undemocratic. When the Clintons had a huge advantage among them, it felt undemocratic to me as an Obama supporter. When Obama started rolling them recently, we heard complaints from Clinton supporters that they are undemocratic. And none of that is good, for all of it is true. It takes power from the voters, in support of a eight hundred little handouts of extra power. And excuse me for saying so, but why the hell should the head of College Democrats get a vote equal to a third of a congressional district? This is stupid. Someone thought of this as a feelgood thing, but it has gone far too far. And while one could make a good case to abolish superdelegates altogether, they are not altogether useless. The House of Representatives chooses the President in some circumstances, the Senate chooses the Vice President in others. They are elected, not appointed by cronies, and are part of how our party gains, exercises, and maintains power, so their judgment is both wise and pragmatically important even when unwise. They (and what the hell, Carter and Clinton) should get extra votes. No one else.
3. Nearly Pure Winner Take All Is a Stupid Model. We heard complaints this year from President Clinton and some in the media that if we had a pure winner take all model like the Republicans, we could have decided our contest sooner, and Hillary would have been given proper respect for winning California and New York, both of which were supposedly good things. We could also have decided things sooner by flipping a coin. That winner take all would overweight large states and underweight small ones is clear in the fact that at one point, winner take all would have put Hillary Clinton ahead by 400 delegates while trailing in the popular vote, which disserves counting all the votes and giving them all weight. Because the right idea is one person, one vote, distributed across the nation. . .
2. The District Based Proportionality System Is Also Stupid. Seeing candidates clutch and grab their way through primaries because they know 44% is about as good as 56% disserves the process. The system was put in place to protect discrete social groups (the Jackson wing won the system in negotiations with the Dukakis folks), in an era before our party had demonstrated a willingness to nominate anyone other than white men. Twenty years later, we're runnin' down a dream, as Tom Petty would sing, if he were trying to be irritating and repetitive. We don't need this set of training wheels on our process anymore. Allocating delegates on a statewide proportional basis, with some winner-take-all kicker is much fairer than the district-driven model that locked us into months of a struggle in which one candidate was uncatchable, but couldn't score a knockout. It would make the prospect of winning big states by big margins into gamechanging events. Since February 18, an idiot could tell that Obama would win the pledged delegates, but even better showings in Texas and Ohio would not have put Clinton out. If that statement bothers you, imagine it reversed, which could well have happened. Given that 1984 and 2008 had similarly close splits built around similar pairs of coalitions, let's not do this again. It's a bit draining. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks so.
1. We Need Regional Primaries. The future of the Democratic Party is a fifty state strategy. American demography is always changing. The Hispanicization of the southwest and west is changing our electorate. The aging of the Rust Belt has changed it. Migrations to the Sun Belt and growing affluence there liberalize it. Attempts to play to the last cycle's important states ignore these changes, and intendedly disserve one person one vote by picking five or ten states that "matter." In the era of Internet fundraising, all the states need to matter for our party to achieve a lasting or significant majority. After a January with a few historically special states, we need about eight to ten regional primaries: California, other Pacific states, the upper Midwest, the Great Plains, the intermountain West, the southeast, Texas/Florida, the Atlantic states, Appalachia, New England/New York. This would force our candidates to campaign in the fifty states, and would hone our focus on different regional issues. Hopefully, over time, these regions could take turns within the sequence so no one is always first or last. (Yeah, right.) But at least the superficiality of SuperDuper Tuesday could be avoided. It was designed to help Clinton, IMHO, which was bad, but ended up helping Obama by promoting a brief campaign in which the most superficial aspect of his appeal could carry the day, which was also bad. A march through a series of regional primaries would put it in the bag for no one, and would be far less superficial than what we did during the last ten days before Super Tuesday. Just because my guy won doesn't make it good process.
Thoughts?


Comments (86)
May 13, 2008 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I especially like number 1.
If I may, I think it'd be nice if the states took turns being first. Iowa and NH gotta be tired of all the hoopla by now.
May 13, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Articleman, you are seriously prolific (but with substance, so it's a good thing)! My favorite is #2. The percentages seem to work out more-or-less the same they would otherwise, but it's just weird and random that an odd-numbered district has more power than an even one.
As far as #1 -- interesting idea. I agree that the primary season and early "special" states has gotten a bit ridiculous, though I'm not sure how the regional idea could work. Coordinating all those dates, and then arranging them to rotate, sounds like a logistical nightmare, especially given that states generally sponsor primaries, and many states are Republican-controlled. I suppose it would have to be a bipartisan effort.
May 13, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
PS I don't think it's entirely accurate to say, "A march through a series of regional primaries would put it in the bag for no one" -- maybe that wouldn't have happened with this year's crop of candidates, but it seems like it would be probable in the future, since candidates do tend to have strong regional pull. It would be a little odd, if, for example, the southwestern regional primary narrowed the field and eliminated the likely favored son or daughter from New Hampshire on the basis of regional politics.
May 13, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's say there was a southwestern primary this year, and you have a charismatic Hispanic politician who sweeps NM, AZ, UT, CO. You still know that politician has to go to New England, and has to go to the Great Plains. I don't think any one regional affinity extends across all, so I'm not sure why fractionating into 8 to 10 is dangerous.
The downside to that suggestion, I would have thought, would instead be the fear that some regions always go last and never matter.
May 13, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was basing comments on the pattern from this current election season, in which the first few contests (with as many votes as one regional bloc) rapidly narrowed the field. For example, this year, if the North Atlantic states had gone first, we might have seen an early, decisive advantage for Clinton. I guess I'm saying that I can't imagine voters in Region Two voting for someone who had done poorly in Region One, even if that person were well-supported in Region Two and expected to do well in Region Four.
You're right that the real key is the order (especially if it's static). I'm arguing that grouping states by region would exaggerate the impact of order.
May 13, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
4. Why shouldn't superdelegates be abolished entirely? What's the problem with having ordinary voters decide?
2. States aren't homogenous entities, I'm not sure why district-based proportionality is inherently any stupider than having state-based proportionality. But all districts should have an odd number of delegates.
1. Regional primaries are fine, except:
a) Start with small contests, make it affordable for candidates who aren't already front-runners to compete in the early contests.
b) Don't start with the same states all of the time.
May 13, 2008 4:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your abolition of all supers is a very reasonable thought.
The district proportionality allows a candidate to nearly tie based on barely 40 percent of the vote. It encourages visiting districts with odd numbers of delegates, which is stupid (Paige's excellent point). Given the fact that you need 2/3 or more to make a district with 4 delegates split other than half, I think the margins are moderately more sensitive in a state-proportional system.
May 13, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Though your ideas sound interesting, I'm not a fan of the regional primaries; They'd require too much television and if it were up to me, I'd peel some off of Super Tuesday to further spread out the elections. Of course, I'm a big fan of this long season, so masybe that's coloring my opinion.
Also, I kind of like the district proportionment because allows everyone to be represented and it cuts down on the idea of a lopsided urban vote deciding the state. I haven't researched its beginnings, but if your thing about insuring AA representation is accurate, then it's kind of interesting how it went the other way in NC; Hillary got the mountain district.
May 13, 2008 4:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Strongly agree on peeling off Super Tuesday. Someday if we keep consolidating at the front of the schedule, we'll pick someone bad, realize it in April, and have no way to fix it.
May 13, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, in a sense, the long primary was good for Obama. Gave him the opportunity to show us who he is. He came into this as a virtual unknown. These long months have put him right out there - gave him lots of time to come into his own and make him ready for the GE.
It was definitely exhausting, but maybe worthwhile in the long run. I am more than ready for Phase II, however.
May 13, 2008 7:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
The point of the primaries is to choose the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election. So why do deep-red states get any delegates at all in the Democratic primary? There is almost no chance that they will deliver electoral votes to any Democrat. So, why not assign delegates in proportion to the number of people who actually voted for a Democrat in the last general election? This seems a little fairer than an alternative which might well be more effective: no Dem delegates for any state which the Republicans carried by more than (say) 10% last time.
May 13, 2008 7:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
This totally ignores the cyclical nature of time and politics. What was red today was true blue in years past. We need a 50 State Strategy, not a Who Loved Us Last Time strategy.
It's way past time to acknowledge that just about every state is varying shades of purple and in the long run we'll need every state to overcome the enormous challenges we face. We need to stop dividing ourselves. We made it too easy to be subjugated with very few shots being fired. All it took was Kent State, Ruby Ridge and Waco, a few assorted "terrorist" attacks and some "Moral Issues" to debate as if hey were actually red meat.
It was a brilliant plan that almost succeeded. I say almost because many of us are waking up to it and throwing the bullshit card. The only thing we can do as Americans to start solving all of our problems is to come together as a nation. Of course we will have our disagreements, but this division of preaching choirs on the right and left has become a civil war based on ideology and hate rather than armies and corpses.
The damage to our nation, though, is just as severe if less bloody.
PS: I think many of these ideas would be a way to start, though the Regional Primaries would need to be worked on. I say we take the primary process away from the parties and put it in the hands of the Congress to fashion a law that governs it nationally, like we have laws for governing the general election. This party-sponsored free-for-all has gotten too ridiculous to ignore any longer.
May 13, 2008 8:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, we split the difference. I'm not going to explain the formula here, but in essence, states are awarded delegates to the DNC based on an average of their population and the number of Democratic voters.
May 13, 2008 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
If the point is to choose the candidate with the best chance of winning, why would deep-blue states get any delegates, either?
I would posit that the point is to choose the candidate that best represents the interests of the Democratic party, and getting elected is merely one facet of those interests. As long as we have Democrats in deep-red states, they deserve a say in what those interests are, as well.
May 13, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
They give money to the candidates. And they can be won back. Your counterpoint that we should only award delegates to states with marginal significance because they can go either way shows how silly game theory is applied to this stuff.
At bottom, the reason red state dems get votes is because they vote, and this is a democracy. One person one vote. (I get that we weight it based on where the dems are, per Fly, but that's a species of one person one vote.)
May 13, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
The point of the primaries ought to be to choose the candidate that the party wants.
What's the party?
I'd think in a small-d democratic party, the party is the voters. Of course, the leaders of the Democratic (and Republican) Party disagree with this notion....and always have.
There's a simple solution to the problem: directly nominate a candidate via a national primary with some sort of single, transferable voting system.
Everything else is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
May 14, 2008 12:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Love your suggestions but I'd go for a more radical reform.
1) only primaries, no caucuses. Caucuses are part of a bygone era. In modern times we need to encourage the most party members to vote and they need to be able to get in and out of the polling places and to work. We should expect people to spend half a day moving around rooms in groups. One Democrat, one vote on a secret ballot should be the norm.
2) Eliminate the supers. Delegates should just mindlessly express the will of the people in their states and that's that. They should be awarded by the proportion of the popular vote won and that's that.
Basically we have a system in place that allows the party to second guess its members. The part leaders should give the members more credit than that.
May 13, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think caucuses (and the Clinton campaign punting and butchering them) will be the but-for cause of electing President Obama.
So I say, with the greatest reluctance . . .
everything you say in your comment is correct.
May 13, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Altho no caucuses and few supers, maybe he wins anyway. Different world, for sure, and more democratic, which is the point.
May 13, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. No caucuses, no supers.
May 13, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course this election was run under the rules we have now so we can't say with certainty who'd have won an all-primary, no supers type of election.
But given that Obama won the popular vote (as best we can count it under the current system) doing it my way wouldn't necessarily have changed the result.
Also, just so you know, I'm not suggesting it for that purpose. I just think that Democrats should be allowed to go to the polls before work, vote in a reasonable time and get on with their days. For that reason alone primaries beat caucuses.
May 13, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree: no supers, no caucuses. I live in a state with caucuses, and frankly I am not at all interested in having my neighbors trying to convert me to their view. My vote is my vote and it isn't my neighbor's business!
May 13, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I used to live in a caucus state and found it a thorough-going annoyance. I definitely prefer primaries and am glad that Missouri holds a primary. That said, I think that a blanket abolition on caucuses is a bad idea. Just like marijuana laws and assisted suicide provisions, caucus-vs-primary is a question best left to each state (in my humble opinion).
Caucuses really can serve a legitimate good. In a thoroughly red-state like Wyoming, democrats are vastly outnumbered by republicans, so even a small fraction of republicans mischief voting in the democratic contest could have a disproportionate influence. If all a would-be mischief maker must do in order to effect such havoc is to take fifteen minutes out of his morning, the temptation to indulge in such impishness is far greater than if s/he must spend a few hours of a worknight. As such, caucuses server to protect the integrity of the party's selection process in such "hostile" territory.
In many circumstances the cost of keeping democrats from voting in the democratic contest outweighs the benefits of keeping republicans from voting in the democratic contest, but I am wary of presuming to make that decision for democrats in other states. I could easily agree with FotW above that the rules governing caucuses should be standardized across the whole country, but I dislike the idea of insisting that we in CA and IL and MI (etc) know what is best for those in ID and AK and WY (etc) by telling them that they must hold a primary instead of a caucus.
May 13, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with this. Even in Iowa (where I participated in two caucuses), which tends to be a swing rather than heavy "red" state, caucuses serve the important purpose of party building. More voters turn out for caucuses, yes, but the IA-style primary gets the people who do show up more involved in the process. It also provides more room at the county and state conventions for people who initially supported less popular candidates, giving them a voice in platform construction.
May 13, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I meant more voters turn out for primaries. Sorry.
May 13, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
If we're going to keep the supers, I'd include governors in that list, as well. I assume your intent was merely to eliminate DNC members who aren't elected.
May 13, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought about that, and think you're probably right.
May 13, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
An interesting post, and a worthwhile conversation.
5) This one's tough. Having given them a role, it's not so easy to take it away. At the very least, a party that's committed to enfranchising the District of Columbia can't very well exclude DC from a role in its own convention. But it's not entirely clear to me why the principle of enfranchisement ought to be limited to DC. And there's an important addition to your list - I presume you'd also exclude the separate delegates for Democrats Abroad.
4) The main reason for granting members of Congress automatic slots is that we want them at the convention - that ties them more closely to the party, and makes invests them in the process. When they had to run for competitive slots, many demured - they faced either the embarrassment of a loss, or the prospect of winning by trouncing their own constituents. On the other hand, the superdelegate system tends to favor frontrunners and congressional candidates, and in the long-run, that may prove unhealthy for the party. I'd agree with elminating the DNC slots. I think the unpledged add-ons are a terrible idea, at least in their present form. I'm more ambivalent about the other DPLs, including the ex-presidents, but there aren't enough to make that argument important.
3) Amen.
2) I think you're conflating two separate issues. The first is whether delegates ought to be awarded based on results statewide, at the district level, or via some weighted combination. The second is whether the present system tends to artificially level out real differences in the voting. Personally, I like awarding 2/3 of the delegates at the district level. The origins of the system don't bother me; the question isn't where it came from, but rather, what purpose it presently serves. And we've seen that it tends to force the candidates out of the districts where they already enjoy the greatest levels of support, and into those where they don't. That's incredibly healthy for the party and the country. Contrast that with most statewide campaigns, in which each side focuses on turning out its base and driving up its margins where it's strongest. That way, polarization lies. Which is not to say that you don't have a point. But there are any number of other possible solutions to the objections you raise, including (but not limited to) (a) restoring UADs to their original status as PADs, thus awarding a bonus to the statewide winner (b) tilting the district/statewide balance to, say, 50/50 or (c) getting rid of most of the superdelegates, so that the smaller differences in pledged delegate totals produced by the present system constitute larger percentages of the needed number. But your ultimate objection here is off-base. The reason this fight went nine rounds isn't because 56% was as good as 44% - it's because the party was almost evenly divided, and the results of the state level contests reflected that. I don't think artificially stacking the deck so that the race is over after a handful of contests and we can paper over real divisions will prove a good solution to that problem. But we'll test this proposition in the fall. John McCain, after all, won the nomination through just such a system. If he turns out not to have been properly vetted, or is unable to mobilize his base, I think that will speak eloquently to the problems of rigging the nominating system.
1) I loathe the idea of regional primaries. Sure, it would promote a focus on "regional issues" - that's precisely my objection. For better or worse, we don't have a regional system of government. Federal legislation and policy aren't targeted at the regional level. We need a leader who can speak to the problems of the nation as a whole, and to the issues of the basic political units of the union, the states. The regional primary system encourages them, instead, to pander, offering bromides in place of specifics. But more importantly, a rotating regional system is a lottery. If the Southwest and the Rust Belt had gone first this year, Clinton would be the nominee. If it had been the Northeast and Upper Midwest, it would be Obama in March. It creates a shorter process, but also one more determined than ever by the calendar. And since all 50 states vote on the same day in November, it's a terrible way to select a nominee who will have to run nationwide, not regionally.
Let me add, if I may, two more reforms I'd like to see discussed:
A) Quotas: Do we really need to mandate that the delegations be evenly divided between men and women, and that certain racial and ethnic groups be represented (but not others)? Most people haven't focused on the incredibly complex and restrictive rules governing the selection of delegates, because the color of their skin doesn't impact their choice of a nominee. But that's the whole point. Although it creates a pleasing crowd-shot for the cameras, and shows a striking contrast to the quadrennnial GOP gathering - which looks like an NRA convention - the quota system is a relic. It's not that we've erased gender, racial, or ethnic discrimination; if we eliminated the quotas, there's no doubt in my mind that we'd see a striking and regrettable fall-off in the apparent diversity of the convention. It's that we've made some real progress since 1982. The main objective of the Hunt Commission was to fix what it saw as a major problem - the convention floor looked nothing at all like the rank-and-file of the Democratic Party. It was full of the aging hacks and party bosses of an earlier era, even as the party had become a coalition of rights-focused interest groups. Well, the party's changed again. It's still an unwieldy coalition, but that has more to do with geography, education, and occupation. The grassroots plays an increasingly important role, and the era of machine politics is now largely behind us. For all the paeans, the wonderful diversity of our convention is largely skin-deep - they tend to be significantly older, higher-income, better-educated, and more urban than the party as a whole. The party has spent much of the past two decades moving past interest-group politics. It'd be nice to see the nominating process do the same.
B) Too Many Systems: The states have a huge amount of latitude in determining the rules of their initial determining steps - what the rest of us call primaries or caucuses. This is cute, even quaint, until the contests start to matter. And then it rapidly becomes apparent that even many of the experts don't understand the ins-and-outs of their own states' systems, much less those of the other 49. That's a shame; the contest should be about policy and character, not about mastery or manipulation of arcane rules. The DNC should re-write the rules, and offer states a binary choice. They can opt for primaries, to be run under a fairly rigid set of rules, allowing only for legislatively-mandated differences. Or they can opt for caucuses, under a similarly restrictive set of rules. Out with the firehouse caucuses, the primacaucuses, the primaries with and without conventions, and all the rest. In with two choices, that can be explained once and understood by all.
C) Sanctions: We need sanctions that can stick. So long as they're reversible, the party and the nominees will face incredible pressure to back down. Florida and Michigan decided to call the DNC's bluff. So far, they've lost that gamble - but the DNC and the candidates have also lost support. We all like a system with safeguards and appeals. But fairness is sometimes less important than finality. If, when the RBC ruled against Florida and Michigan, they had understood that the decision was absolute and final, they would've buckled under and submitted new, compliant plans. Instead, they assumed that presenting the DNC with a fait accomplit would induce it to back down - or that they'd be seated at the convetion even over the objections of the RBC, because the nominee wouldn't want to anger them. This whole fiasco has been too costly to allow it to happen again.
May 13, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, for an edit function.
May 13, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
points to the fly for easy going wit
refreshing
May 13, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
May 13, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like your additional reforms, especially the sanctions. If a sanction is issued after a fair process then it should stick.
As far as the original post, I have mixed feelings:
5) It would make sense to only have primaries in those jurisdictions that have a vote in the election in November.
4) Limit the superdelegates only to those who have been elected to their office. Or if the DNC and DPL must get superdelegate status, they should get half a vote or only vote in the instance of a statistical dead heat in the pledged plus elected superdelegate count.
3) I need to think about this one a little more....
2) I like your idea about state proportional delegation with a winner take all bonus.
1) I do not favor regional primaries. Instead, I think that all states (see 5 above), should enter into a lottery that determines primary order. The lottery is held immediately following the previous presidential election so as to give states time to set their calendars and resources. The order would be in effect at midterm elections based on the next presidential election year (ie 2010 mid-terms will be held on the basis of 2012 election order that was determined after the election in 2008). Everyone will know the order well in advance and it will introduce a level of fairness into the process.
May 13, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your state ordering thing is a great idea. The problem is that unless it's federalized by statute, which might not be constitutional, you'd have to get the states to legislate jointly into some interstate compact under which they let themselves get moved around in this manner.
It's kind of what the economists call a race to the bottom. And that's how we get collective action problems like FL/MI in our process, lack of a mechanism to do what we see as right.
May 13, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad this web has caught the Fly. Muchos gracias for such a thoughtful response.
5. The DC point is too easy. It gets 3 electoral votes, so yep, only things with electoral votes are enfranchised. Yes, would omit Dems Abroad, they can vote absentee in November in their state.
4. You're of course 100% right on the genesis of the reps being included, but they do need to think about who runs best, helps them downticket, and I think that's a useful discussion to have in the broader public discourse, lashing the Pres and other races together.
2. Agree with much of what you're saying, but I think part of campaign skill is creating enthusiasm through momentum. "Winning" is an important phenomenon. So some kicker for winning states (you suggest one mechanism) to make the margins more sensitive -- so 60% is a huge win, and 55%-45% does not always read like a tie -- rewards the skill of "winning." It deserves more recognition than death by tie-math. Maybe this year it would have cancelled, as Obama won more states, and Hillary more big states. But a meme of winning and momentum is good, as long as we don't overweight (see your and my agreement on 3.)
1. Counterpoints . . . How is a focus on each region's issues worse than the nonfocus of Super Tuesday? That was a no-time game-theory crapshoot in which one candidate worked little states, and the other relied on name recognition and a few big states. It was inherently less substantive than the regional focus you don't like -- and you got the same idiotic regional pandering (NAFTA in Ohio and PA, immigration in Nevada, ethanol in Iowa) with individual contests that actually sharpened the narrowcasting aspect of pander by refusing to lump five states as a group. That we govern nationally, I suppose, argues for a national primary, but that's what was wrong with Super Tuesday. The question is how to distribute attention among the states.
On your further points, quotas, you are 100% right. On systems, I think if you kill the primacaucus (god I love that word) you should also kill the caucus. One way to help make sanctions stick would be to make every candidate really buy the sanction. Hillary has, at least with her own supporters, gotten away with disavowing it, as if it happened beyond her control. We must not let anyone pull that nonsense again.
We all seem to agree there's fixing to do.
May 13, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why not give them votes on the platform but deny them votes on the nominee?
May 13, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because the nominee is the most important part of the platform, in essence.
May 13, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Count me in as one not liking the regional primary idea. I don't think one region of the country should virtually decide the nominee. Consider the case where Candidate A has strong ties with the first region to vote and secures a huge lead after the first round. Candidate A now has a substantial lead, builds momentum and rides out a win. I prefer a series of "Super Tuesdays" (or Saturdays, actually) in which a cross-section of the country votes. This way, even if someone builds an early lead with substantial momentum, it would reflect more of a national consensus. I know the scenario above is not guaranteed to play out, but why take the chance?
May 13, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, especially with moving the elections to Saturdays.
Replace the idea of "regional primaries" with cohorts of states, each consisting of big, medium and small states, and each cohort representing roughly the same number of delegates.
Of course, the problem here is that the Democratic Party, being a ground-up organization, doesn't really have the organizational authority to dictate to the states how or when their primaries should be held.
May 13, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been thinking the past few election cycles about grouping states in such a way. Not regions going together, but states from different parts of the country having primaries scheduled together. There are 50 states, plus DC, so that would fit quite neatly into a 5 month primary season, with around 10 states scheduled each month.
Really large states with large populations (CA,TX,FL) would have to be kept in separate groups because it's such a physical challenge to campaign in them. (I think having California a part of the Super Tuesday group was a huge mistake: no way for enough time to be devoted to it.)
I like the idea of the first month being mostly made up of states with small populations so that campaigning would be easier (and cheaper) with a largish state thrown in to mix things up a bit. This would allow contestants with lesser funds to get a start.
I think this order should be changed around every 4 years right after a presidential election, as noted in a comment earlier. But with these guidelines used to generate a random order so that the groupings of states are never quite the same cycle after cycle. And whatever process is used to generate the primary order, it should be federal campaign law that all states and political parties go by.
May 13, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
While that idea has a certain appeal, it would also be much more expensive for the campaigns. Candidates would have to travel all over the country for every primary and couldn't combine media buys in overlapping areas.
I'd like to see a couple of smaller states go first (but not always New Hampshire and Iowa), then a series of regional primaries. Surely people would recognize it when a candidate gets an advantage from a certain region and discount it.
May 13, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the idea of proportional representation by district. Specifically, I like the idea of awarding delegates to each district based on its turnout for the democratic candidate in the last election. It is all too easy for a democrat in a red-state (like TX, for instance) to conclude "well, my guy will not win this state anyway, so why bother?" The answer to that question, of course, is that downticket dems might still win and could use the vote. The democratic party, as such, has a vested interest in encouraging these voters to turn out and the present system of apportioning delegates creates such an incentive. That is a good thing. Loyal democratic voters deserver such a reward.
May 13, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except this year, the 08 Tx delegates were awarded by state senate district (I think) based on Kerry votes in 04 (I'm sure on that part). It helped Obama, but disenfranchised, relatively speaking, the Rio Grande voters for Hillary. I'm glad Obama won Texas, even in the qualified way he did, but that system to my mind was unfair.
May 13, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not see how it is unfair to reward voters for voting democratic. Hopefully this year's results will impress upon democratic ward leaders in those Hispanic areas the importance of getting their people to turn out to the polls in November. If not, then they deserve to be slighted. Everyone earns the reward or the penalty which they receive in this system. That is exactly the opposite of "unfair."
May 13, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get rid of those fucking caucuses. They're nothing but voter suppression. Then, have IA, NH and SC go stand in line with everyone else.
May 13, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
All good. Here's one more:
An intelligent, deliberate schedule of primaries, set over the course of three months (shorter than this interminable season, but not too short that we regret our choice of candidate). Every two weeks we set primaries consisting of roughly one-sixth of the total pledged delegates. Each candidate has two weeks to campaign for each set of primaries. Each set of primaries has a proportionally equivalent number of delegates at stake. And the whole thing is over in a reasonable span of time.
May 13, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you agree with the post on grouping primaries, but not regionalizing them, apparently.
May 13, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think a shorter primary favors the better-known candidate(s). I liked that the long primary gave Obama the opportunity to show the nation who he is - gave us all the chance to get to know him.
In January, I was still thinking that this Obama fellow seemed like a nice enough fellow, but was probably too green still to be President and I thought it was a given that the nominee would be Hillary. I needed a little more time to figure out who this guy was and what he had to offer. A quick three months wouldn't have given someone like me time to come around.
May 13, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Primary process isn't democratic nor should it be. The Party is capable of putting whomever they want on the ticket.
The process the Dems currently have is excellent: in much the same way as there are two houses in Congress, the Dem Party allows for a polling purpose to get the "common man's" views and a superdelegate process that gets the "landed gentry's" views.
The Dems therefore are able to sift through candidates to find the one that both is best able to capture votes in the GE (the polling) and also maintain a core set of Dem values (the safety valve of the superdelegates to prevent hijacking the party).
Limiting the superdelegates as you say will minimize their ability to influence the election -- which is your stated desire, but not a good one. Moreover the superdelegates that have the most freedom are precisely the ones you don't list -- the ones that aren't up for reelection.
I think the Dems are excellent at vetting candidates with their current process - if they had GOP-style leadership on top of it (which they never do), they would produce unbeatable candidates year-after-year. That's not the fault of the process, however, but the fault of the party leadership.
The most important thing is for people to realize that political parties are not about one-person, one-vote. You are participating in an election similar to a stockholder in a company, where people with more vested interest have a greater say.
As it should be.
If a party doesn't represent your views, you are free to switch or found another one. This happened in the 1850's over the slavery issue.
May 13, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again, I disagree. There is no need to force anyone to campaign everywhere.
The general failing, I think during the primary season, is that people don't recognize that the point of the primary process is to find the most electable candidate, not the best one to govern the country. One hopes that the two criteria would significantly overlap, but they needn't.
In fact, it is the GE where you get to pick who would best run the country. The individual party's sole concern is to find the best candidate to win the GE.
Your supposition that we need a 50-state strategy is a party choice -- this year they found a candidate who could make that work. In 4, 8, or 20 years, perhaps there is a candidate who couldn't win all 50 states but can capture the top 20 electoral states. Who knows? A party goes down the 20 state route risks going against a party who has a 50 state strategy in the GE, but there is no one best strategy. It depends on the times and the candidates themselves.
May 13, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Addressing comments by obamagirl68, Allsburg, and articleman...
Rational state ordering makes obvious sense. But as articleman notes, it's an implementation and enforcement problem, not a conceptual problem. I disagree with articleman in that the DNC does have some enforcement power. It was only MI and FL that flagrantly flouted the rules, and regardless of whether their delegations are seated, they've paid a steep price that I think they'll be unlikely to opt for again. Their primaries have been been among the most meaningless of the season when they could have been among the most critical.
But while the DNC's enforcement mechanisms can be applied to exceptions, the states hold the real power. They are the ones that would have to agree on a rational policy, with the DNC (and RNC) used as executors.
I suggest a joint convention after November which would include representatives of the DNC, RNC, and all 50 state legislatures, to hammer out a lottery system and enforcement mechanism. Since it's luck of the draw, ratification of the agreement shouldn't be a problem with two exceptions: IA and NH. These states proudly hold privileged positions that they would not give up willingly. If they're able to convince delegates of the convention to let them keep their privileged statuses, so be it. If not, the DNC and RNC should be able to strip their delegates more easily than MI and FL.
May 13, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand why you lump (a) the DNC and RNC together and (b) lump the parties with the state legislatures.
1) There is nothing in the US Constitution claiming a need for any party of any kind. The parties, in fact, formed over the bad blood between Jefferson and Hamilton.
2) The legislatures obviously draw off the political parties, but the states are independent of each other. Your statement priortizes that someone will identify themselves as a Dem or a Repub before being from a certain state.
I see no reason to have more regulation in this area. The parties that can't effectively find decent candidates for public office will die, pure and simple. You will occasionally get the bumps in the road (MI and FL) but that's fine -- they tested the system, now everyone can learn from their example. It won't happen again because of it.
That's a beautiful form of self-correction that required no additional wastes of time to what is on our elected officials' plates.
May 13, 2008 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
The state governments run the primaries. They choose the dates (with some limits set by the DNC and RNC). I'm not suggesting more legislation. I'm suggesting different state legislation from what exists to create a more rational timeline. I'm not just concerned about FL and MI. I think that Super Duper Tuesday was a bad idea for both parties. While Obama managed to pull it off, such huge primary days favor candidates with the most money and political clout. The parties will not die because of irrational timelines (especially if they share roughly the same irrational timelines, disadvantaging both equally), but we may get poorer presidential candidates.
May 13, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
SuperDuperTuesday was set with an agenda (certainly by the Clintons) as a knockout blow for the candidate out ahead. (Again, why the Clintons pushed it.)
However, there is no need to save the parties from themselves.
If two parties both have bad timelines -- that gives an opportunity for a 3rd party to organize and provide a better timeline.
The one thing that this election showed is that the Internet enables an ability to organize nationally on a meager budget.
There is no reason at all to prop up political parties. If people don't like the candidates, they can organize a 3rd party a priori... the 2012 campaign starts in a few months.
On the other hand, if people really aren't too unhappy with the candidates we have, nothing will happen.
People love to grumble about everything -- but when they are truly unhappy, they will do something about it. Obama's campaign this year shows it in spades -- which is why he was able to overcome incredible odds to not only survive a Clinton candidacy (many other more experienced politicians could not), but actually beat her.
I am tired of our elected officials having non-issues like these ("how to optimize an election") when (a) there is no guarantee that a political process will help in optimization of another political process and (b) there are critical issues (water resource management, security, infrastructure) that get sidelined already and are more pressing in our lives.
May 13, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
So basically you're saying that it's OK that the primary process sucks because it will either correct itself or help third parties emerge. Great, stop grackling this thread, and go write one on third parties. I promise not to grackle it. In the meantime, I'll keep writing about improving the two-party system to get better candidates who address issues that concern both of us.
May 13, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chill out, Genghis. And although I appreciate your concern, you needn't feel an obligation to tell me what to and what to not post. The thread is about reforms for the Dem Party and it's perfectly reasonable to say that many things don't need reforms -- and that options exist for those who feel the process "sucks".
This process, in fact, brought us Obama - a candidate you support.
The fact is that the Dems have a superior primary process than the GOP. The Dems have proportional allocating and the superdelegates. I wrote about that in more detail in another part of this thread -- which much less vehemence than you just showed to me personally.
May 13, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't have a quick supporting reference, but I'm under the impression that the legislatures control or schedule the primaries, when the state pays for it and the party is in complete control of the mechanism, when it's on their dime.
May 13, 2008 4:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er... I mean the "state parties" with oversight from the national.
May 13, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your comments are honorable.
May 13, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think they'd actually have to enact a law. Isn't the reason they always go first, due to the existence of state law to that effect?
It's peculiar, for sure.
I like the idea of a lottery system, as well.
One good thing about this primary season, is that all the states have been seen as having an effect on the outcome. That has generated interest and swelled the number of folks voting.
Not really a bad thing, all in all.
I'm not sure if that was due to having good candidates on the Dem side, or due to the schedule. Perhaps both.
May 13, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
IA state law maintains that it's caucus be the first contest, and NH state laws maintains that it's primary be the first primary. Florida also passed a law setting its early primary this year. I'm not sure how it's done in other states, but that's why I suggested that representatives of state legislatures would have to be involved in any broad agreement.
May 13, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Doh!
I wasn't trying to be annoying. Just this once.
May 13, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Money is an issue that doesn't make your list, but plays a critical role.
That Hillary Clinton can run deficit spending on her campaign to the degree she does is shameful.
But I can't help it if stupid vendors continue to "sell" things to the Clinton Campaign when everyone knowns they are deadbeats.
We have seen in this election that money may or may not be a good indication of support:
a) Hillary had old money -- but not enough for the popular vote
b) Obama is only in the race because he raised enough money via the Internet to raised awareness of his candidacy which then raised more money on the Internet.
However:
c) Mitt Romney had plenty of money (relatively speaking for a GOP) and it didnt' help him.
d) Mike Huckabee had no money and was able to get out the vote as well.
Lack of money should have sent Hillary home by now, but like a person who has foreclosure looming, she is going to Vegas to play on her credit card looking for the big score. That is why Obama bailing her out sets a bad precedent: serious debt should be the first sign that someone should drop out.
May 13, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for this post articleman - I was hoping someone would tackle this subject.
If I were King of the Democrats, I would:
- abolish all superdelegates
- abolish caucuses
- move the start of primary season back 2-3 months. Does anyone else find it utterly ridiculous that people in New Hampshire are voting for President in the middle of freakin January?! We need a more compact primary season from March - May.
- I like with the idea that four states from different parts of the country lead off the voting (such IA, NH, NV, and SC). But every 4 years 4 new states get to lead. The states would be selected by a distinguished selection committee.
- Keep proportional, district based delegates but also give bigger delegate awards for winning the most total votes in a state.
May 13, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the British approach. X amount of dollars for everyone, (not a penny more) and 6 weeks to campaign.
It would destroy our two party system, so I don't think it's something we'll see anytime soon from our elected officials.
They like campaigning, I think. Better than legislating or listening to constituents. More fun.
May 13, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's true, our present system tends to award those people who love to campaign as the big winners. JFK, LBJ, Reagan, Clinton all come to mine.
Compare to others who obviously didn't enjoy it:
Nixon -- lost against JFK, won against Humphrey in a bad year for Dems and was then reelected
Goldwater -- although it was a tough battle to switch from JFK to LBJ, his "candid comments" didn't help
Humphrey -- not inspiring enough, couldn't beat Nixon
McGovern -- nice guy, not a political animal (coming from SD is a clue... different sort of lifestyle and life pace)
Ford/Carter -- was there ever an election less about the candidates? Ford was unelected, Carter ran on never telling a lie
Mondale -- laid back
Dukakis -- the "technocrat"
GHWB -- wins election by being VP, then defeated. The "resume president"
Dole -- too old at that point to have energy
GWB -- didn't win
Gore -- boring (as candidate)
Kerry -- boring
Neither McCain nor Hillary love to campaign -- and Obama does. This is telling.
May 13, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we can all agree the system needs an enema...
Some great ideas there, the regional primaries is a no brainer & would still accomplish energizing everyone (in fact maybe even more so when groups realize the impact they can have). Also the rotating schedule would insure a fair spot for everyone & with a system like that the last contest or middle contest can hold just as much sway in dictating momentum or outcome. Somebody sign this boy up (articleman). Seriously some of these ideas need to be forwarded to the DNC... Peace.
P.S. Next stop the electoral college.
May 13, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Regional primaries will tend to shorten the primary season locally. While it will be an energy conscientious thing to do, people in a particular region will probably end up focusing much more (than they do now) on their local region and much less (than they do now) on others. State-by-state mixes things that a low-rumble is every-present in the news.
May 13, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
No superdelegates. They can always run as regular pledged delegates.
Instead of regional primaries, how about a series of primaries, one each month from January to May? The first one would be a collection of small states comprising about 5% of the total delegates. Thereafter, each month's primary would comprise an escalating share of the delegates until the May primary had about 40%.
The advantage of this system is a low barrier to entry. Candidates without a lot of money could compete in the early primaries, and if they do well, more money would start flowing in. By the time the final primaries were held we'd almost certainly be down to a final two candidates and there would still be enough delegates outstanding to make a difference.
May 13, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
You definitely have some good thoughts but, I went on YourThreeCents.com and saw something that might interest you about our American system:
WHEN WILL WE ALL WAKE UP
May 13, 2