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Even with Florida and Michigan, Obama Wins
I'm not sure why Hillary thinks it will matter.
Obama is ahead by 143 delegates
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/
Florida will net Hillary 38. (Hillary 105, Obama 67)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_Democratic_primary%2C_2008
Michigan will give Hillary 18, if you count Uncommited as Obama.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Democratic_primary%2C_2008
Hillary herself approves this:
"However, his supporters organized a substantial vote for 'uncommitted' on the ballot, thus he is represented in the delegation. " http://www.delegatehub.com/
So, that's a net gain of 56 delegates for Hillary.
Not even half of what she needs to catch up to Obama.
It's over.
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Comments (8)
if she got michigan seated as selected, who knows. all 55 uncommitted could be clinton delegates.
May 6, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton is using the popular vote metric.
I wish Obama was trying to win the election, rather than not lose it.
May 6, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know the feeling but I honestly think he is trying to win without damaging himself in the hearts of Clinton supporters more than she has damaged him already.
I wish he'd deal the knockout blow as well, but I don't think that would work out well for him in the long run. I just hope their right on this one!
May 6, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand that logic, however I think he's garner more respect (from those not firmly in his camp) if he just finished her off definitively rather than let it peter out with the end of the primary season and then gleefully pointed to his delegate lead.
May 6, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to ABC News and the New York Times, by some calculations Hillary is already slightly ahead in the national popular vote if Florida and Michigan are factored in. ABC accepts those calculations. The NY Times simply points to them. It requires using a formula to calculate popular votes in caucus states. It can be argued, but it is just as legitimate a claim as any.
So if Hillary does well today, you'll be hearing a lot more about it.
May 6, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know that you already know this, but there is only one calculation that can put Hillary ahead in the popular vote. You have to give her all of the votes from Florida and Michigan, and not give Obama one single vote for Michigan. Then you have to disregard the popular votes for 4 caucus states, because the popular vote totals are not released. I think these states are Maine, Nevada, Washington, and Iowa.
Realistically, there is only one use for the popular vote totals and that is to sway the superdelegates to endorse HRC. Superdelegates, are generally much more informed than the general population, and they will not be using such an unfair metric to determine who they will endorse.
I don't care if ABC accepted it or not, it is a waste of time to even discuss it.
May 6, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok here we go again.... for those mentally challenged people who have comprehension issues.
Michigan's vote totals do not count. At the request of the DNC, Barack Obama removed his name from the ballot (along with other candidates). The DNC is never going to consider Hillary's votes in Michigan.
Get your head out of your asses and stop trying to force something that is not going to happen.
MICHIGAN IS NEVER GOING TO COUNT! At best you'll get a 50/50 split of the delegates.
May 6, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, and think the solution proposed by the Obama campaign concerning Michigan was acceptable. But I think it is deplorable, illogical, and undemocratic for the Obama campaign to also insist on splitting Florida's delegates 50/50, as the circumstances were different.
Additionally, this post continues to work under the assumption that superdelegates are locked. If Clinton is able to show a change in the tide and Obama continues to run into personal connection problems, things will not be so simple. Many supers now are moving to Obama because he has such a large lead. If that lead were cut to roughly 100 delegates, which FL would do, and if Clinton leads in the popular vote, they will be even less inclined to continue siding with Obama.
While I, as a Clinton supporter, will concede that Clinton's chances for victory are slim, I still see a path to at least keeping Obama from reaching the magic number and taking this to the convention.
May 6, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
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