« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Crazy Predictions After the RB Committee Meeting
Well, the RBC has spoken. To their credit, made a decision regarding both states and didn’t wimp out and defer decisions until the Democratic convention. Ickes and Flournoy released their pro-Clinton statement proclaiming victory in FL and reserving the right to challenge the MI decision. Did their statement serve as the official reaction of the Clinton campaign? The true test will come in the next two days. What will Wolfson’s/the Clintons’ response be? Will Clinton concede after Tuesday’s results? Will she continue the fight to Minnesota? Here are my thoughts. If she continues her fight for the nomination past June 6, she is essentially giving up any future political aspirations she may have. If she gives up her fight by this coming Friday and “plays nice” between now and the convention, Obama will offer her the VP slot.
Comments (20)
Hillary supporters, please go here:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/an-honest-question-for-clinton.php
May 31, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This thread is a lot more interesting than all the posts that are rehashing today's debate. It's time to think about what comes next.
Your predictions could be right.
But my understanding was that the Clintons sent out feelers about the VP slot a coupla weeks ago, and Barack said "no" in pretty definite terms. Weren't there a few leaks to that effect, in any case? I think Bill even went on record saying that Obama ought to offer Hillary the veep spot.
Here's my read. Today's theater was not about getting anything for Hillary. It was about revenge. They know they're not getting veep, and they're whipping up discontent about MI just to show Barack that his decision came with some nasty consequences.
At this point, I don't think they have any bargaining chips left. If they try to take it to the convention, Hillary never going to chair anything but the Senate Janitorial Services Committee. So why would Barack make her veep now, if he wouldn't say "yes" a week ago?
May 31, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for your comment.
You may be right about the revenge motive, but I'm not sure how "getting even" benefits Senator Clinton in the long run. If there is any hint that she will not support Obama for President, her political career is over.
I also read things about Bill pushing hard to get the VP slot for his wife. You are right - Obama would not have offered her the VP spot a week ago and would probably not offer it to her in the next two weeks. But after a month of healing? Who knows. Obama is a fast learner and, for all of his idealism, a pragmatic politican (e.g., resigning from his church, wearing a lapel flag, etc.)
My wife made said that Obama could make the following statement (or something like it) after nominating Clinton for VP:
"I pronmised to reach across the aisle during my presidency. Nominating Clinton as my running mate is a reminder differnces can be bridged and that this election is not about me or Clinton or McCain. It is about using people's strengths to bring about the change that we so clearly need."
May 31, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Getting even is about getting even, not benefits!
June 1, 2008 4:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just found this blog post and it's making me nervous. Could it be that this was pretty much planned all along and she always had every intention of losing at this meeting so she had the justification (arguably) to take her beef to the credentials committee and then the convention?
June 1, 2008 12:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
The plan suggested in the blog post seems too clever and I think that HRC played to win today. There is nothing in her primary canpaign strategy to suggest that her camp is capable of pulling off the type of planning alluded to.
June 1, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
"At this point, I don't think they have any bargaining chips left. If they try to take it to the convention, Hillary never going to chair anything but the Senate Janitorial Services Committee. So why would Barack make her veep now, if he wouldn't say "yes" a week ago?"
With respect I think you're not sufficiently taking into account Obama's character/style. This is not a man who invites or pursues unnecessary confrontation - (with the exception of John McCain. ) He's said so many times how deeply he believes in redemption and reconciliation.
He's already signalled in so many ways that he will be profoundly respectful of Hillary; he most certainly understands the breadth and depth of the necessity to heal the hurt feelings of as many of her supporters as he possibly can.
Hillary doesn't need `bargaining chips`.
If he doesn't want her to be his VEEP he'll most certainly give her something very important that she would enjoy. Help pay off her debt; and a senior cabinet post if she wants it. He's also publicly said that he's a `practical minded guy` and much admire the way in which Lincoln brought in all of his `enemies` to his administration.
Who knows? He may actually want her to be his VEEP - she has so much institutional knowledge of the presidency and such a broad grasp of policy issues.
(My main concern with the notion of her as VEEP is that it doubles the negatives in an electino: not only do you have all the racists etc who can't stand Obama but then you also activate all the people who can't abide her. The big question is does she bring more support than she loses?)
May 31, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think that Obama will want Clinton as VP, but, to your point, she may bring more support than her presence loses.
Two thought come to mind. Obama is more pragmatic than people give him credit for, and he has said that he is a fan of DK Goodwin's book, "Team of Rivals," in which the author points out how Lincoln was able to overlook personal rivalries to assemble his cabinet.
May 31, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right. Who knows what will happen? A weeks a long long time in politics and we have so many more to go.
sigh
I look at all the craziness going on and keep thinking of the Frost line
`miles to go before I sleep`
Poor Obama.
June 1, 2008 7:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Fran. Hillary brings nothing to the table but a lot of serious negatives.
And she's proved herself a looser cannon than Jim Webb.
I'd be interested to see a brand-new poll of how support for Hillary has fared in light of her latest behavior.
June 1, 2008 12:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes I thinks he brings huge negatives. The problem with all this is how different their bases of support are: how polarised she's made all this.
"I'd be interested to see a brand-new poll of how support for Hillary has fared in light of her latest behavior."
I imagine the polls are all over the place at the moment. So many different things going on - it's all too `busy`
June 1, 2008 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I could certainly see him offering a cabinet post. But I'd be surprised if she wanted one. Frankly, I'm puzzled that she seems to want veep. Senator seems to me a better job description.
May 31, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe she just wants to get him to ask so she can turn it down...
June 1, 2008 12:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure that she ever really wanted to be a Senator. The impression I always got is that her seat was just a means to an end - a Presidential end.
June 1, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
ABC is reporting that she may be offered a cabinet position such as Health and she could work for Universal Health Plan. They also state Biden for Secretary of State and Edwards as Attorney General. But, who really knows? I don't believe he would offer VP - but she DOES NOT WANT to go back to Senate.
June 1, 2008 12:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's an article suggesting similar propopositions
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/democrats/2058907/US-Elections-Hillary-Clinton-to-be-offered-dignified-exit.html
June 1, 2008 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama pulls an Abe Lincoln circa 1854 Illinois Senate Race, withdraws and throws his support to Lyman Trumball (Clinton) to prevent James Shields (McCain) from winning on a pro-Kansas-Nebraska Act (Iraq War) platform.
WHAT!
You said you wanted crazy.
June 1, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Crazy is one thing, but insane is another! :)
June 1, 2008 1:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
If by VP you mean "Vehemently Pandering" to hard-"working" white Americans - don't forget to bring your guns and whiskey bottles and leave your bitterness at home - yes, she is o.k. to be VP. Beyond that there is no place for Hillary Clinton or her husband in American politics for the next 20 years or so. She is obviously still too young and immature to be capable of sound judgment.
June 1, 2008 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Beyond that there is no place for Hillary Clinton or her husband in American politics for the next 20 years or so."
Sigh How can you say that? She's got more votes in this election than have ever before been accumulated by any candidate in a primary!
I loathe so many of the things she's done during this campaign. But how can we possibly be thinking that her supporters should be graceful about unifying if we, Obama supporters, are saying things like that about her?
June 1, 2008 7:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment