Carl Bernstein: Hillary to fight to get on Obama ticket
Carl Bernstein says Hillary is going to fight her way onto the ticket.
Clinton "is trying to figure out how to land the plane without looking like surrender," a prominent figure in the Obama camp said Friday. This means bringing her campaign to a close in the next few weeks and trying to leverage her way onto an Obama ticket from a position of maximum strength.
A person close to her and to her campaign staff said this week, "I think the following will happen: Obama will be in a position where the party declares him the nominee by the first week in June. She'll still be fighting with everybody -- the Rules Committee, the party leaders -- and arguing, 'I'm winning these key states; I've got almost half the delegates. I have a whole constituency he hasn't reached. I've got real differences on approach to how we win this election, and I'm going to press the hell out of this guy. ... Relief for the middle class, universal health care, etc.; I'm Ms. Blue Collar, and I'm going to press my fight, because he can't win without my being on the ticket.' "
Another major Democratic Party figure agreed: "Obama has got a terrible situation. He marches to a different drummer. He won't want to take her on the ticket. But he might have to, even though the idea of Vice President Hillary with Bill in the background at the White House is not something -- especially after what [the Clintons] have thrown at him that he relishes. I believe she'll go for it."













Six weeks from now, Hillary will have to fight to be allowed onto a parade float.
May 10, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a non-starter. The only way Obama would put her on the ticket is if she exercised leverage on him to force her onto the ticket. But that won't work, because there's no way he would agree to put her on the ticket when she's been openly hostile to his candidacy and, even more important, is willing to exercise her own political power to force Obama to act against his own personal interest. Which means she'd probably do that again in the White House. Which means Obama would have to be certifiable to put her on the ticket.
Really, she had two chances to get the VP slot: tone down the campaign after Obama's 10 straight wins, or force Obama to a stalemate and have enough committed delegates to force BO's hand. She did neither-- she fought dirty, and Obama will now handily wrap up the nomination. She's no longer dealing from a position of strength, and BO would be unwise to place her on the ticket.
May 11, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The link didn't post properly.
Here it is for those interested.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/10/bernstein.clinton/
May 10, 2008 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Hillary the only VP candidate that can reach "her" demographics? She's really trying to carve out this division so she has to be taken on the ticket.
May 10, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama Sebelius 2008
May 10, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
You just know Hillary and Bill will bully their way with their own agenda - It would be utterly ridiculous. All his talk about new politics would be proven to be exactly what Hillary has been claiming - Just Talk. All of Bills shady business dealings, his secretive Clinton Library Donor List would also become Obama's problem.
I'll actually think much less of him if he has her on his ticket.
She'll probably threaten an independent run or something equally as politically suicidal to the Democratic Party.
May 10, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except, of course, she doesn't have the funds to run a national, third-party candidacy. She has zero chance of getting on the ballots in all fifty states by November. At best, she cancels out any third party run by a conservative. I think she goes back to senate, licks her wounds and figures out a way to consolidate her position as a US senator.
May 11, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
My sentiments exactly.
May 11, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Her power to fight for that is nonexistent.
Nancy Pelosi. Ted Kennedy. And Barack Obama.
All think Barack gets to decide! Silly Nancy! Silly Ted! Silly Barack!
May 10, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any food tasters out there?
May 10, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chelsea. And I bet Chelsea would be nervous.
May 10, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Chelsea's far too cautious to take on that job.
May 12, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
NO way no how! There is no way she gets on the ticket!
May 11, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
NO. No. No. A thousand times no. She has alienated his supporters and, from what I've seen right in here recently, a lot of her own. She's ticked off party leaders and right now is making a complete fool of herself. There's no place on an Obama ticket for her. She just needs to bow out, gracefully or not, as soon as possible.
May 11, 2008 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
If he puts her on the ticket he lost my vote.
I like Obbama but as an AA I hate her. NO way in hell I vote for a racist.
May 11, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I feel your pain. I believe it is impossible that he would put her on the ticket, so I am not very worried about it.
But if he did, he would lose many points in my view and much of his appeal. At this point, I think I might still vote for him, but quite dissapointed -where would the back-bone be?- and holding my nose...
May 11, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm pretty sure that by the time the GE rolls around, Hillary's race politics will look tame compared to GOP attacks.
May 11, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That does not sound like a good reason to vote for Hillary.
May 11, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, the way discussion seems like it's going to get framed, how does he get out of it?
May 11, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Stand by his principles. As Obama pointed out in his North Carolina victory speech - you need to frame the argument yourself, not let others frame it for you.
May 11, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a game of chicken.
HRC: Give me the VP or you'll never be elected.
Obama: Ruin my election and your future is toast.
Who wins????
May 11, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama. Did you see SNL last night? Her cred is not running high.
May 11, 2008 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hill and Bill would make a mockery of Obama's presidency. They would always be pulling attention to themselves. Obama can't have that kind of poisonous element inside the White House.
Obama should just say no to her and dare the supers to do something about it.
May 11, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I don't pretend to understand all the angles and machinations involved here, but I'm one who thinks this scenario is absolutely toxic. And I don't think it would help his chances of being elected; I think it would hurt them.
He needs to fight this tooth and nail if at all possible.
May 11, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
HRC=Ring-wing magnet. That is probably why 8 out of the 13 congressman in competitive districts (conservative) have chosen to not endorse her even though she won their district. She is toxic.
May 11, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
He doesn't have to do anything of the kind. This is more megalomania and entitlement from Hillary, spun out to the media. She is the ONLY one who can deliver these voters, the ONLY one who can deliver these states. One of the most divisive political figures of the current time. Her only hope was humility, but instead her supporters are trying to railroad this through, "He has to do it." No, he doesn't.
May 11, 2008 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's trying very hard to make it appear as though Obama needs her on the ticket to have a chance at winning the election. But I agree with you anneeliz -- I don't think he has to put Hillary on the ticket or involve her in his administration in any way.
Another blogger here at TPM turned me on to a recent poll that completely destroys Hillary's "I can win the big states" (and therefore, she asserts, Obama cannot) argument. Her campaign tactics over the last few weeks have earned her quite a bit of voters' buyer's remorse. Check it out: http://cbs5.com/politics/poll.clinton.obama.2.720136.html
May 11, 2008 2:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. I'd be curious to see similar polls in NY and MA.
May 11, 2008 3:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Putting HRC on the ticket would lose Obama the general election. There is a visceral hatred of the Clintons by the GOP base and by a not insignificant number of Democrats (this having nothing to do with Obama). These folks would vote for a monkey before they'd cast a vote for a ticket that includes a Clinton. This is why both Clintons have always run a 50 percent plus 1 campaign strategy. Unfortunately, 50 percent plus 1 does not give you a majority that empowers one to govern. In short, it's all about getting legislation through the Senate. Hence, Obama correctly pursues the 55 - 60 percent strategy. For example, HRC (as pres or vp) on the ticket would give Georgia to the McCain. Obama, on the other hand, puts Georgia into play. Presuming Obama wins Georgia, it becomes much for difficult for that state's two GOP senators to obstruct his legislation and court nominees. Lastly, HRC offers nothing positive and everything negative to an Obama ticket.
May 11, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you think Obama or ANY Democrat has a chance in hell of winning Georgia, I'd really love some of that merlot you're drinking.
Look, I've donated time and money to Obama's campaign and I'd love nothing better than to see him win here, but I can all but guarantee he won't. IF he puts a Jim Webb or a Wesley Clark on the ticket with him then maybe he can eke out a win, maybe. But he's already got two strikes against him, unfortunately: 1) He's a Democrat and 2) he's black. Outside of Atlanta and a small pocket in Savannah, he'll be fortunate to get 20% of the vote.
Sad but true.
May 11, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Laura, that completely fits with what I've heard from several Californians who voted for Clinton on Feb. 5 and now think Obama is the better candidate.
May 12, 2008 12:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
How does he get out of a HRC vp? Naming Sebelious as his running mate. She represents both the demographics of HRC, and the bipartisan spirit of his campaign.
May 11, 2008 2:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate the link to Carl Bernstein's opinion and his reporting about the opinions of an unnamed person in the Obama "camp", an unnamed person who has talked on the phone with someone who may have spoken to Senator Clinton and a random, unnamed Democratic "figure".
May 11, 2008 2:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL. Going by the reaction of the chicken littles here, it seems to be working.
Carl Bernstein or not: It ain't happenin'.
HRC VP meme is a dead horse, so don't beat it.
May 11, 2008 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's really weird how this all came on at once--it started, as far as I can tell, with Harold Ford on Tuesday. But this was before we knew how close Indiana was going to be. There's suddenly this weird, coordinated effort, and like Josh, I just can't see how she would really want it. Especially since she is so convinced Obama can't win. (PSST--Because he's BLACK.)
May 11, 2008 2:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I heard Harold Ford harping on this Tuesday. He kept chewing and chewing on it -- wouldn't let it go. I've never paid much attention to Ford before -- but hearing that crap coming from him made me think he must be pretty soft-headed.
May 11, 2008 2:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not so much soft-headed as DLC/Clinton-headed, I imagine:
http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ka.cfm?kaid=137
May 11, 2008 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
OH!!! That explains his stubborn insistence on an argument I thought was crazy-ridiculous.
Silly me. I presumed that Ford was too young to be a DLC-establishment type. I guess I'm guilty of having my own prejudices, yes?
May 11, 2008 3:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
The guy has quite a resume for being just 38 (as of today, it looks like). I wouldn't guess it looking at him, either.
May 11, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's the CHAIRMAN of the DLC
May 11, 2008 6:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think she will push for it. Terry McAuliffe floated the idea just yesterday, she hasn't discussed it with him though (yeah, right). He wouldn't be putting it out there. I too think it would be a bad idea. The Repubs have a LOT on Clinton to use in the general. Obama didn't go negative. He didn't bring up the "soft on terror" argument, the highly questionable pardons, travelgate. The list is so long. She would be a detriment with regards to Independants and fed up Repubs. Her foreign policy credentials are slim.
There are others that can attract the blue-collar white vote plus the "Regan Democrat" types. Sen. Jim Webb from VA would be a great choice. Excellent military credentials to answer John McCain's (Viet Nam Vet, son just returned from Iraq, Sec. of Navy under Reagan) former Repub. He's a tough guy too. It would be a good balance.
May 11, 2008 2:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Screw Hillary, but a gal on the ticket other than her is definitely a good idea. Any suggestions?
M
May 11, 2008 3:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sebelious is a good choice, but even if you go away from the near-southern state type, you could go with Granholm to assuage Michigan.
May 11, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Granholm can't be President--she's a naturalized citizen.
May 11, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
The first thing Obama needs to do is let it be known that he has both a list of potentials, and a process in place for making the selection. On Indiana/North Carolina Primary night one pundit commented that Jim Johnson was on board with Obama to oversee the vetting. Johnson dates from the Hubert Humphrey Staff, was student body President at the U of Minnesota, and served as the vettor for Carter, and then came to the WH on Mondale's staff. Did the vetting for Mondale, did it again for Dukakis and then for both Gore and Kerry. He is very behind the scene, but does something like a 20 year audit on each prospect. He doesn't select, he just makes certain nothing untoward will show up. Anyhow, now he is working on Obama's staff, so I assume he will direct the process.
By making it clear a process is intended, Obama can save himself a world of hurt from the Davis and Ford types by making it clear he has approved a process and it is going forward, and that he is not going to make the pick based on spin or a popularity contest.
I too like Jim Webb, and hope he is on the list that Jim Johnson begins to work with -- but above all Obama needs to sketch out his vision of how he expects a VP to work with him in HIS administration. He should quite publicly have some consultations with Carter, Mondale and Gore to discuss structure of the VP's office. He can put the selection off till summer -- but he needs to make the point he has started the process.
May 11, 2008 7:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree.
May 11, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's choice of VP is his first presidential act. I feel certain he will not use that to show himself as weak.
May 11, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very true. He will be establishing an important precedent -- and since he ran on breaking with the past, pulling in the largest symbol of the past will trouble his base.
May 11, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Love the power analysis. It's a power thing.
May 11, 2008 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Said it before: NEVER!
Clinton would be a major liability in November. How she ever thought she could win the White House (as opposed to the nomination) mystifies me. Much of "Middle America" outright loathes her.
(I'm not too crazy about her, but it does not rise to the level of visceral hatred, as it does with much of the country.)
Clinton would also be a serious downticket liability, simply because she'd bring out huge numbers determined to cast a vote against her - possibly sufficient to cost us Congressional seats, as well as state legislative seats - perhaps erasing the 2006 gains, maybe even more.
Why does this matter? Any state legislator elected in 2008 is an incumbent in 2010, which is the cycle that determines redistricting after the next census. This is our chance to erase some of the Tom DeLay-exemplified gerrymandering that cost us seats in Texas, and likely in other states as well. Maybe even do a little of the same to them where possible. Two senior Republicans dropped into the same district, if we have a chance. Three, if a grouch can dream!
Payback, ya know...
May 11, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
She'd probably do to him what Johnson did to Kennedy.
May 11, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love all this talk about what Obama will be forced to do. Obama doesn't have to do anything. He will make the choices that he determines are in the best interests of his campaign and this country - as he has always done to date.
Hillary and her thugs continue to bully, as they have done since she started her run for the White House. It didn't work to get her the nomination for President, and I suspect that these tactics won't get her the VP spot, either.
May 11, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama / Feingold with Feingold taking over in 2016, but I think we'd be better served with Feingold taking Harry Reid's spot as Senate majority leader to work with Prez Obama.
May 11, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great idea!
May 11, 2008 8:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's Nora Desmond, I tell you:
I'm ready for my closeup, Mr. DeMille
I wouldn't be shocked at anything she does, but I can think of many reasons why having her (and Bill) lurking around the White House seething with resentments and plotting the Restoration, is a horrible idea.
I don't buy the argument that Obama cannot reach the same people she has, by the way. They're not stupid puppets, and he has a rare ability to connect with them. And I think he would spare no effort to talk to and with women, and the famous Regan Democrats, not to mention older voters. It's not a foregone conclusion that he'd fail: that's just more Clintonian spin, and you're all buying it by repeating it without challenging the underlying assumptions.
No way.
May 11, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
NorMa, I meant.
May 11, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that many of you are allowing your hatred of Hillary to interfere with your objectivity. Yes, there are drawbacks to putting Clinton on the ticket. She has high negatives, she has a lot of baggage, her modus operandi is inconsistent with Obama's message, and she's tied to a certain limelight-loving ex-President who doesn't take direction well.
But while I don't advocate putting her on the ticket, it's important to recognize that she also has advantages. First and foremost, she is extremely popular, almost as popular as Obama himself. She has demonstrated herself to be an effective politician and fundraiser. She would expand Obama's base, particularly among women and older voters. She is an effective attack dog, an important attribute in a VP candidate. (One of the roles of a VP candidate is use their platform to go on an attack so that the pres. candidate doesn't have to get muddy.) And she has one of the best-known names in American politics.
I expect Obama to seriously consider her, and while she can't force him to put her on the ticket, I expect the depth of her support to be a serious consideration for him.
One final note, it's a bit hypocritical for people who threaten not to support Hillary were she to become the nominee to criticize her for insufficient loyalty to the party.
May 11, 2008 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Genghis, but you've got this backwards. Sure, Hillary has lots of supporters - but despite the fact that absolutely everyone in America knows her, she's unable to get more supporters than a guy who most people never heard of until a few months ago. And that's just in the Dem party.
Running with Hillary as his VP would do about as much for Obama as running with Cheney as veep would do for McCain. That is, making sure that every last supporter of the other party votes against him. Please consider that.
But it's actually even worse. Choosing Hillary as his VP would mean that not only doesn't Obama really care about change, he is quite willing to embrace the same old, same old in the hope of gaining a few votes.
Hillary and Obama don't mix, period.
May 11, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
codegen, I wrote above She has high negatives, she has a lot of baggage, her modus operandi is inconsistent with Obama's message, so I agree with you that there are some serious disadvantages, and I don't think that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, so I'm not arguing that he choose her as VP, but it's important to acknowledge that there are advantages.
By now, everyone has heard of Obama, and Clinton is still able to battle him almost to a draw, so if she really is as pathetic a politician as you make her out to be, then Obama would have to be pretty pathetic himself not to be able to blow her out of the water.
IMO, they're both formidable politicians. Clinton is not as good as Obama, of course, which is why she has lost despite her name recognition, but if you think that she has gone on this long on name recognition alone, I have to conclude that you're not objectively analyzing this race and have not paid attention to all the fervent Clinton supporters who know all about Obama and are still passionately committed to Clinton.
It's possible to hate Clinton, not to want her on the ticket, and yet still give credit where it's due.
May 11, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Name... and money.
In fact, Hillary did one of the most spectacular swan dives in all of modern US political history.
She was the *inevitable* candidate. She was the Goliath that the NY State Dems opened up a path for (and essentially canceled a primary race in 2000). She had all the old guard Dem machinery lined up behind her. She had people who had been advising her since the 1990s, had Bill working backroom deals, was an active member of the Senate, was able to help frontload the primary system to create SuperDuperTuesday... and was so scary that most potential Dem candidates stepped back as this was "her year".
And she couldn't grow her base on that. Had no plan after SuperDuperTuesday. Had an undisciplined and confused organization. Had no ground campaign in the "non essential states".
And on and on.
No, by asserting that she got this far as proof of her political abilities gets the whole picture backwards. She should never have been in this place to begin with... and she was knocked out by a person who most people hadn't even heard about 18 months ago.
Obama ran an excellent campaign... and Hillary ran a very poor one.
The two combined for the situation we are currently in.
May 11, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The situation that we are in is that Obama has beaten her but by a small margin. This means one of three things must be true:
1) Clinton ran a strong campaign
2) Obama ran a weak campaign
3) Clinton's inherent advantages are so massive that that even though she ran a "very poor" campaign and Obama ran an "excellent" one, he still has to fight her tooth and nail to win states.
I take it that you believe 3. What are these advantages? Name, money, and connections, you say? But downthread, you write that "the length of the Dem campaign has nullified" the name advantage and that "having the name "Kennedy" didn't help Ted at a national level." Presumably, Ted had pretty good connections with the Democratic machine too. As for money, Clinton hasn't had as much money as Obama since February. So what inherent advantages have allowed her to win OH and PA, and why are these not advantages that would be useful in a VP candidate?
Let's see...
Name
May 11, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ignore the last two lines.
May 11, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't beat on 'em with logic, Genghis - they'll only come back hating you.
May 11, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, if you go to the Daily Howler archives, you'll see that back in January 2007 Obama was polling even with McCain, just slightly behind Hillary - before he officially announced his candidacy. Obviously this "no one had heard of Obama until a few months ago" canard is a sham, but it makes Obama sound even more miraculous.
May 11, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does "slightly behind Hillary" mean she was polling at about 35% and Obama at 17%? That's what the pollsters.com archives show.
I would also point out that until late 2006, Obama wasn't even a choice in most polls, while Hillary was going strong at 30-40%.
May 11, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Polls such as Newsweek & Time in Jan 2007 had Obama up around 42% to McCain's 42%, with Obama pulling ahead in February.
May 11, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I quite agree, Desi. That's why I said 18 months. The point, I think, is clear.
And 18 months ago, Hillary's coffer lead looked insurmountable.
Obama's beating her in the Dem Primaries (which hasn't happened just yet, although I think we are almost there) is nothing short of miraculous. Most Dems were scared to run against her, if you recall.
If there were no Internet, we would be talking Hillary vs. McCain right now.
It was Obama's masterful re-invention of the political campaign in the Internet age that propelled him forward. His inspirational charisma sealed the deal on those other insights.
May 11, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who were the Dems who were scared to run against her? Seemed like a pretty full pack, and Obama was considered a wunderkind since his speech at the 2004 convention.
May 11, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis,
You really have to stop trying to put words in people's mouths.
You set up arguments (like "anyone who doesn't want Hillary on the ticket hates her") and then proceed to discuss from this point.
Let me be very clear here:
Do you think Kerry ran a great campaign in 2004?
He only lost by a little bit to GWB.
Hillary losing by "only a little bit" show precisely how terrible her campaign was.
Hillary's advantages (which should have overwhelmed anyone in the Dem Primary Season were
Name... and money... We can include "connections" if you wish, but it's really a combination of the other two.
Obama has a huge name recognition now. He doesn't specifically needHillary to boost name recognition on the ticket.
Yes. Your point? You won't find him on a national ticket. That was my point.
Hillary has deficit spent into oblivion -- and she was riding on (a) name and (b) identity politics. ("Name" allowed her to deficit spend.)
Hillary's name comes with awful negatives. Running in OH and PA in a Dem Primary is not the same as the GE.
And it's disingenuous to imply that because someone won't necessarily add to the ticket means they can't win a single election.
May 11, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ask Republicans who saw her on Fox what they thought - I was amazed with one response this evening, someone who would normally be a Hillary hater, but they were quite impressed with her performance.
May 11, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo
May 11, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis, I love your shirt, but I'm with clearthinker on this.
You underestimate the power of name recognition. I bet that many of current Clinton supporters don't know a whole lot about Obama. The converse is definitely not true. In fact Obama may be getting a significant boost from the 'Anybody But Hillary' crowd.
Also don't discount the power of connections. Heck, being a former President of the United States ought to count for something, shouldn't it? So having one as a husband should be an advantage not to be overlooked.
Who was it that started with a lead of 100 superdelegates back in January? How do you suppose that happened?
Hillary also started with a significant fundraising advantage. If it wasn't for the Internet (and Obama's ability to tap it), the race really would be over on Super Tuesday.
One thing I'll give to Hillary - she played the media like a fiddle. That was brilliant work on her part. They ate up every idiotic talking point she threw them. They kept taking her seriously at a point where anyone else would be laughed out of the room. Obama has a lot to learn there.
I suspect you're arguing simply for the sake of an argument (nothing wrong with that!). Yes, Clinton has some advantages, but that doesn't matter because of all the disadvantages she also has. And you can't separate one from the other.
That has nothing to do with hating Hillary. I don't hate her, although I have lost all respect for her (or rather she lost all the respect I had for her...).
In closing, one final argument against Hillary: It's not the 1990s anymore.
May 11, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is also possible to say that "Hate" is too loaded a term to cast around so casually. I don't hate Hillary, but I do feel that I'm fairly dispassionate in my strong opinion that she is unfit for the office on the merits. Mainly on character issues, as she's undoubtedly a first-rate intellect. But she does not pass the character test for me. For lots of reasons that have been beaten to death here and elsewhere.
If she's unfit for the office, according to my argument, then she's unfit to be VP. The main qualification to be VP is to be qualified to be President, should the worst happen. And by this logic, she's unfit for either.
Politically speaking, moreover, the symbolic baggage of bringing onto Obama's ticket someone who's been so strongly associated with a style and substance of dysfunctional political fighting from Vietnam on, would impose a handicap on the new administration that would be hard to overcome.
You can't be for change, and then annoint someone who's the antithesis of change.
I can't see the political or moral argument for making Hillary the VP. Plus, it's not wise to adopt the Clintonian perspective, and say that Obama can't win over some or most of her voting block. I think he can. He'll have to prove it, but I think he'll be successful.
So, aside from the first two arguments, he really doesn't need her if he can appeal successfully to her voters. Which he will.
May 11, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Many of my points, but more succinctly stated. Well done, PADem.
May 11, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You start off with the counterfactual condition (people who don't want Hillary on the ticket because they hate her) and take it from there.
We will never know the actual answer to that question. I know lots of people who voted for her in the CA primary back at the beginning of February that now regret their choice. I have yet to hear that from Obama supporters. Anecdotal? Yes. But don't confuse the issue about the primary tallies -- they are very much tied to the time that they occurred.
She is *not* demonstrated herself an effective politician. She is seen broadly as being veracity challenged. She tends to polarize her audience. She comes off as strident and unapologetic. She hasn't kept to a consistent persona.
As far as fund raising: with the old guard, that she has built on (with Bill) for the last 16 years, no doubt. But she hasn't energized the base, hasn't brought real excitement to the election -- save for older women who love that identity thing.
Possibly, but it's unclear how much. Older voters may well simply vote Party (a tactic I deplore, but it does exist). Older women may or may not come out for Obama. That will be part of the challenge.
It's not a reason to put Hillary on the ticket.
Not clear. She certainly knows how to be combative. This same characteristic would certainly energize the GOP base.
This used to be true. The length of the Dem campaign has nullified it to a large extent.
And having the name "Kennedy" didn't help Ted at a national level.
Finally, "Clinton" also invokes horrors as well (see comment about energizing the GOP base).
In fact, the reason why Hillary need be kept off the ticket, is the same reason why she shouldn't be the Dem nominee: America must avoid dynasty politics with it's creeping corruption and subversion of influence peddling at the highest levels.
One of the largest reasons for the failure of the Bush Administration was the dynasty politics of father and son.
Same is true for a Dem dynasty. Especially when we know the Clintons already have disturbing ties into China and the Financial Sector. (Similar to the disturbing ties into Saudi Arabia and the Oil industry.)
May 11, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh? She's still neck-and-neck with him in the national opinion polls. She's been winning states for a month straight. And you're citing friends of yours that regret their choices as counter evidence? What other evidence could we have that massive numbers of Americans prefer Clinton to Obama than polls and primary wins?
Obviously. But that is true of any VP candidate. It's unclear how well Richardson would attract Hispanics and how well Webb would attract Virginians. But the base of support is a critical attribute in any VP candidate even if you can't calculate what their actual draw would be.
Not clear? What is being an attack dog if not being combative. Haven't you and I and everyone else been bitching for months about Clinton's negative attacks on Obama? Why would we complain if they weren't effective? Can you name a better attack Democratic dog than Clinton?
So are suggesting that name-recognition is not an important attribute in a VP candidate? If not, why not just say, "Yes, Clinton has great name recognition. This would be an advantage in a VP candidate."
Can you not admit that Clinton has any strengths whatsoever? Do you think that almost half the Democrats in the nation are complete idiots?
May 11, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton has lots of strengths. So? Dick Cheney has lots of strengths too.
For the record, I firmly believe that a significant portion of any country's population are, in fact, complete idiots. But no, I don't think they are all Clinton supporters.
May 11, 2008 7:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any guess why Hillary supporters might want you to sink in your own putrid stew? Over a year of hearing of Hillary as "Nixon in a pants suit" and more devious and secretive than Dick Cheney. Reach across the aisle my ass. It's the same old populist campaign that gets trodden out every few years, and it's already losing steam. Can Obama slide through November? Good luck.
May 11, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nixon in a pantsuit? More devious than Dick Cheney? Really? If you say so...
Cuz I sure didn't.
May 11, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, you just got halfway there with the Cheney comment. After the pile-on, all you have to do is call out a number and we get the point.
May 11, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Desi,
Just curious: assuming it's Obama vs McCain, what are you planning on doing in Nov?
a) vote Party (e.g. Obama)
b) send a message (e.g. write in Hillary)
c) vote other Party (e.g. McCain)
d) sit it out
e) vote 3rd party
f) write in someone besides Hillary
I think these are the only options.
May 11, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't imagine voting for McCain, and there aren't any 3rd parties that excite me. That's about as far as I've gotten.
May 11, 2008 8:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the honest response. For what it's worth, I admire you to vote candidate over Party...
May 11, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
We get the point? Again, if you say so...
Or maybe you're so good at playing the victim card that you see attacks and slurs where there are none.
May 11, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I call a Triple Non-Sequitur Violation
1. She had and has one of the best known names in American politics
2. The length of the campaign is a measure of the depth and breadth of her collapse since the primaries began.
3. Having a national name didn't help Ted at the national level is inapposite to the point that Clinton's name made her all but the INVINCIBLE AND INEVITABLE nominee.
I really don't see why you have to torture logic and recent history in order to make your case that she would be a good VP choice. That HRC inherited considerable advantages going in - name, money, and most importantly a state and local level party dominated by the Clinton Wing and squandered it can hardly be disputed but why bother in the first place?
May 11, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
BTW I'm a bit puzzled by "she's been winning states for a month straight". Which month was that, the one with no primaries? And why make it sound like she's on a roll when she lost NC by a large margin?
May 11, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis,
This season in particular has shown that the polls are quite often at odds with what happens in the privacy of the voting booth.
Also, are those polls from the general populace? Or only Dem party members? From those that voted in previous elections? From those on cell phones?
And, I never "cited friends"... I said people whom I've talked to... some of these people work in the government. Enough said.
My statement stands: if SuperTuesday were rerun, the numbers might be substantially different. We simply don't know. But we do know that Hillary was never able to expand from her initial base from December. That is very telling.
Attack dogs finish the deal. Hillary excels at stirring things up... what the result is, however, is often not under her control. She energizes the GOP... and often her attacks ended up in Obama's favor by giving him platforms from which to speak. Finally, attack dogs don't create blowback which Hillary most certainly will as happened during the campaign.
I don't know about you, but I haven't "bitched" about Clinton's attacks on Obama. The were frustrating. And they were frustrating for me not because they were effective (because in the end they weren't) because they kept sidetracking the election dialog into non-issues, energy being a key, case-and-point.
Again, a non sequitor and faulty logic, perhaps projecting on what I wrote.
Positive and non-polarizing name recognition is important. Hillary can't claim that...and after this campaign, Bill would even have a harder time with that one as well.
What's the issue here, Genghis? Have I called anyone "idiots"? Have I said that Hillary was evil incarnate? Again, you have been setting up strawman arguments, put those words in people's mouths and proceed from there.
I was very clear and stated Hillary has
a) access to the old guard money machine
b) access to the old guard Dem party political machine
These are advantages.
I do not view "being a woman" as a "strength" -- despite a lot of her old female base votes for her because of that.
I do not view "being white" as a "strength" -- even though she implies that it is one.
Hillary lost the Party Primaries to an unknown outsider. In other words, her strengths are never going to be as strong in the GE as they are in the Dem Primary. And she lost. To an unknown.
Her strengths were never about her personally, but rather the political ties to the past machinery. There are *lots* of candidates with that possibility.
Her weaknesses, on the other hand, are quite tied to her personally.
May 11, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a side issue and hence my not including it above.
Hillary derives real value from being a member of the Democratic Party. For the vast majority of us, being a member of a political party allows one to determine which primary you vote in. And in states where there are open primaries, there is not even that benefit.
Mind you, wanting to canvass for a Democrat or consistently voting a Dem ticket is all well and good. But this can be done without being a member of the Party.
This is the reason people are upset by the Superdelegates: it reminds us that we aren't as significant in the process as the civic books tell us.
Just so.
I have no problem if the Supers decide that the Dem party needs to go in another direction. At that point, I have several options:
a) stay with the party and vote for the candidate of my choice in the GE (write-in or otherwise)
b) leave the party and join another
c) start up a new party
When the political party fails to capture enough of the populace it falters and dies -- and on it's ashes arise a new party more in tune with a sizable portion of the people. This is how both the GOP and the Dems formed to begin with.
Note that the US Government, on the other hand, goes merrily along, oblivious to the founding precepts -- or names -- of the individual political parties.
After all, Republicans agree the US practices a form of democracy (don't take the easy set-up), and Democrats agree that our form of government is a Republic (e.g. a representational democracy).
May 11, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
People, relax. RELAX!
You and I have never seen a politician so adept at piloting their campaign as BHO. He will thread the needle on this, just watch. In fact, someone, hand me the popcorn!
May 11, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks TMC for that reassurance. That is my hope as well. I've been afraid that Clinton will ask to be offered the VP slot as a sign of respect and unity, promising to turn it down, but that she will then go against her word and accept. Remember that JFK offered VP to Johnson just as a show of unity, with the understanding that Johnson would say "Thanks, but no, I will be more useful to the Party in the Senate." We saw how that worked out.
As for the discussion of Clinton's positives vs. negatives, we should keep in mind that her positives can be contributed by a number of other VP choices who don't come with the horrendous baggage of her negatives.
May 11, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton is no LBJ.
Not even close. LBJ may be the pre-eminent Senate Majority Leader the country has ever seen. He worked with politicians on both sides of the aisle and very effectively with POTUS from the other party.
LBJ was from TX -- a critical state to balance JFK.
NY doesn't have the same lure in this election for Obama.
The analogy, though much touted, is historically out of place.
May 11, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
LBJ case is instructive. For him the worst possible career move. Kennedy got what he needed but LBJ political wasteland
May 11, 2008 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very true. It remains a controversy today if JFK didn't expect him to say "yes", etc.
Also, despite JFK going to Dallas to shore up support for him in '64, there are rumors he thought about dropping LBJ from the ticket. Of course, there are also rumors JFK was going to pull us out of Vietnam.
I believe, however, that the combination of JFK's assassination and LBJ's exceptional ability in Congress was needed to have all that legislation go through Congress so quickly. It was a unique moment in time and LBJ took the initiative.
Ironically, he got much of his domestic agenda through. Had it not been for Vietnam, he would have had a 2nd term and been seen as the 2nd coming of FDR as one of the most skilled politicians in the 20th c.
May 11, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I agree. Clinton brings no similar electoral advantage that would warrant an offer from Obama. Re: theories about motives, the other side of the coin is the question of why Clinton (or LBJ) would want the VP position. No one has come up with a convincing reason (that is good for Obama, the Party, or the country) as to why Clinton would want to be on the ticket as VP. I've been convinced that she was running for VP since Super Tuesday - her folks can do the math as well as we can.
A suggestion I've read on one of the recent threads is that the foreign and domestic big-money backers who have given huge sums to Bill Clinton and his Foundation have been led to believe that they were buying access to the White House. If Clinton can't win the top of the ticket, they insist that she go for VP -i.e. still providing a direct link to the Presidency.
May 11, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton and supporters attribute more power to her than she has ever had; marriage to Bill Clinton is far from enough nor does her record speaks the volumes many pretend. Given the actions of Team Clinton since February 5, it would be nuts to have her paired with Obama. She has been running for president for a nearly a decade What does he gain but a lot of baggage of yesterday and well as the recent past, look at her campaign for evidence.
May 11, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Beauty/Beast ticket?
NO!
May 11, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are many good reasons for Hillary not to be VP.
Colorado
NC
Nevada
among others. It is not a good idea for her limited electoral map and her negatives to rub off on Obama.
May 11, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bernstein's an idiot. He, Tweety, Mitchell, Russert and other MSM's scarcely disguised hatred of Clinton are the reason she's in the quandry she's in now. Virtually every article he's written or everything he's said on TV has been anti-Clinton.
For you Obamabots, do not worry. There is no way Clinton will be VP. She'll use whatever leverage she has (which isn't nearly as much as people say) to avoid being on the ticket or even being asked.
The main thing she doesn't want to do is be as damaging Obama's chances. All along she had believed that she could win, but Obama couldn't. That's the argument she's made to the super delegates and for even staying in the race.
After she concedes, she'll do everything she can to be as doing everything she can to mend fences and help Obama (everything except take a spot on the ticket). Tweety, Bernstein and others are already promulgating the idea that she wants to sabotage Obama and run in 2012.
To dispel this notion after Obama loses, she'll go on interview after interview and state unequivocally that she won't run in 2012. And she'll follow through on her promise. But, she'll start immediately planning to run against McCain's VP in 2016.
May 11, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
She has no leverage over McAuliffe, her own campaign adviser? That does sound a bit worrying.
May 11, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Food tasters and stay out of "Dallas."
May 11, 2008 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Carl Bernstein is still trying to peddle his bomb of a Hillary Clinton memoir that's languished on book shelves unsold since last year. I hate it when CNN brings this bloated, mysoginist toad on to give his "insights" on anything.
May 11, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, but "the enemy of my enemy" bit makes him a walk-on success. There's a whole cottage industry of Clinton haters - a bit of innuendo and rehashed controversy and voila, talk-show circuit.
May 11, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK. We get it; you don't like Carl and you like Hillary.
My main criticism of this thesis of his is that I think he's fallen for the conventional wisdom instead of seeing what's really going on. The same conventional wisdom that led Hillary to vote FOR the war, and the same one that Penn peddled and she and her campaign bought that has led to her defeat at the hands of a virtual unknown.
It's not Carl's fault that she's a conventional thinker and screwed up big-time, though.
May 11, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even though I am a charter member of the HeMan Hillary Haters Club, I can't deny that she'd bring substantial benefits to the Obama ticket even perhaps outweighing the considerable drawbacks. The question for Obama is a close one.
But for Hillary? A no brainer. The worst career move she could make - a pitcher of warm spit or a Senate power. She'd have to be stark raving mad to even consider it so she must have some other objective. But what? With yet another mashup of muddled and contradictory messages coming out of her campaign, who can tell what she's after?
May 11, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The power's in the White House. The best you can do in the Senate is play go-fer for the President.
May 11, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have that exactly ass backwards. Cheney's the exception that proves the rule. Clinton returns to the Senate with if anything prospects for a more influential career than before she ran
Obama would have to deal with her. McCain would have to deal with her. Neither would dare ignore her save at their peril. She could well become Majority Leader
May 11, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Majority Leader? No way. Doesn't fit her temperament or skill set. Her 8 year record indicates she doesn't seem to know how to push legislation through the Senate.
At best, she is the Senate Dem Party Whip.
And this is all assuming she doesn't really screw herself in the next 4 weeks. At some point, she is going to polarize the Senate itself.
May 11, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that's been the view of Cheney, Rumsfeld and Bush II, for sure.
Unitary Presidency is their view... Is that your preference, too? Or do you believe in separation of powers and three equal branches of government, to protect us from the tyranny of excess power wielded by any one branch?
May 11, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think she wants the VP position if that's the best she can do. It would be a poor balance for many of the reasons stated above. She doesn't round out Obama's skill set. He needs someone with strength when it comes to military, yet is consistently opposed to Iraq, and also with foreign policy. Economic experience would also give him a boost plus someone who has a bit of a "folksy" charm to balance out his grace that can almost seem aloof at times.
May 11, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah! She can teach the novice all about campaign organization and how to handle money responsibly. If the kid plays his cards right, maybe she'll introduce him to her big-money friends. Such a deal.
May 11, 2008 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think she wants to force Obama into asking, just so she can turn him down, and turn around to everyone else and say "See, I told you he was like everyone else".
What is funny about all of this is that she still hasn't caught on as to why she lost. She has "from day one" underestimated Barack Obama. That is the main reason for continually focusing on demographics and exit polls and popularity concerns. Within her soul I don't think she can imagine a man more talented than her husband, and therefore more talented than her campaign, premise, reason for being....take your pick.
May 11, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting speculation.
You put a lot of emphasis on that elusive emotion: love.
May 11, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Worse than underestimating Obama, she has underestimated Americans.
May 11, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
preemption could be accomplished by quickly advancing more viable alternatives while promoting media coverage of the same, e.g. obama-sebelius, obama-bloomberg.
May 11, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The trouble with Hillary's style is that she always fights as a first option. She seems to prefer force. As soon as it was obvious to the whole country that Obama was the likely nominee, he began offering kindness and space to Hillary and she continues to try to bite the hand that reaches out to her. Why does she do that? CNN reports today that the Clinton campaign continues to try to dig up damaging information to use against Obama even though he is the Democratic Party's likely nominee. He could never trust her. She has so many admirable strengths and qualities and she is so intelligent and tireless, but she has a fatal flaw. She is a schemer and a plotter. He would never be able to trust her. She would always be looking for leverage to use against him and she would poison the new path he is carving out. It didn't have to be this way. I don't think that he'll allow her to force her way to the White House because he has said that he has strong views about the choice for Vice President. He says it is most important that the VP share his ideals and values. He is aware that though he doesn't plan to die, he must choose the VP with the realization that anyone can die. The Vice President must be chosen for the gifts they could bring to the Presidency in case of tragedy and not just their possible help in winning the election. Mrs. Clinton, sadly, does not share his values at all. And it's a darn shame.
May 11, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary as VP is not the best way to go. A better choices is Gov. Tim Kaine of VA. I think they have mutual respect for each other, plus he may be able to help deliver some new states to the Dem. column.
May 11, 2008 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton as VP: Fighting the President from Day One.
She knows she's got a snowball's chance in hell of being the Democratic presidential nominee. She really, really wants to be President in 2009. The only way to the Presidency, for her, is through the Vice Presidency. If some calamitous scandal or health crisis were to befall the President, she'd be right there to step in.
Obama is far too smart to fall for this. I very much doubt that anyone in the DLC/DNC leadership, except for Clinton's hard-core supporters, would pressure on Obama to put her on the ticket.
Imagine the GOP ads: the Democratic VP candidate saying that Obama hasn't passed the CiC threshold, and that of the two remaining presidential candidates, only McCain is fit to be President. The VP candidate questioning the presidential nominee's patriotism. And dodging imaginary sniper fire. I think not!
Let's not Chicken Little this idea. Much as McAuliffe might want to see it, Clinton as VP will not happen. The MSM have been swallowing McAuliffe's talking points. But the superdelegates have not.
May 12, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink