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Brace Yourselves and Don't Believe the Hype: You Know the Drill
This is an excellent reminder of how this primary day will go, just as every other primary day has gone. An excellent essay by Al Giordano from The Field:
The Primary Day Ritual: Open Thread
By Al Giordano
Today marks the 47th and 48th primaries or caucuses for the Democratic presidential nomination. More than 90 percent of the delegates will have been chosen by tonight. By now, we all ought to know the drill.
The day begins with the Clinton campaign “leaking” something to the Drudge Report to set expectations for the day. That then gets repeated on political blogs and cable news, where Clinton surrogate Terry McAuliffe elaborates. Today’s “expectation”: That the Clinton campaign expects a “15 point” defeat in North Carolina. Clinton’s yapping puppies in the news media repeat the manufactured expectation all day long, in which the bar is supposedly now that if Clinton comes within 15 points in that state that she has somehow “won” with a 14 point (or 6 point) defeat.
Around 4 p.m. rumors of exit polls begin circulating on the Internet. Around 5:30 p.m. AP and other news organizations leak minor data from the exit polls that explains almost nothing of value. Sometime after 6 p.m. Drudge posts raw numbers from exit polls that - if past is prologue - show Obama doing an average of seven percentage points better than he actually does.
Obama supporters then get prematurely jubilant and after polls close (tonight at 7 p.m. ET in Indiana and 7:30 p.m. ET in North Carolina) the real results start to come in and reveal Clinton then doing “better than expected” (at least better than the new expectations promoted during the day).
The media talking heads then ask aloud why Obama can’t “close the deal” (in Clinton’s own words) and what is numerically a defeat for Clinton (because the results, even in her recent wins, bring her objectively farther from the nomination in the context of the smaller number of delegates then available) gets spun as a Clinton victory.
Clinton takes to the stage, claims “unexpected” victory, gives out her web site address and pleads for elder women on fixed incomes to send more money to the $109 millionaire. The following day they claim that $10 million rolled in, only to be disproved more than a month later when the actual FEC filing is due. Obama’s FEC filing simultaneously reveals that he raised much, much more, from more small donors, and the Clinton campaign plays the victim card over being outspent.
The Chicken Littles among Obama supporters then proceed to agonize across the Internet for days on end, seemingly oblivious to the fact that their candidate has just moved closer to the nomination, and Clinton was pushed farther away from it.
Most undeclared superdelegates duck behind all the media-generated confusion to continue to keep quiet, although a few courageous ones a day come dribbling out, more for Obama than for Clinton, also moving Obama closer to the nomination and Clinton farther away.
Meanwhile, the media then looks to the next state - this time it will be West Virginia, the best state demographically for Clinton, who is 30 points ahead there - and proclaims that it’s “do or die” and begin anew with the spin cycle about white Appalachian voters being the only voters that matter.
Around that point in the process, the Clinton campaign holds a conference call to move the goalposts again, as Keith Olbermann so masterfully explained last night:
Comments (44)
Clinton internals have the NC difference at five points.
May 6, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I am an Obama Chicken Little.
May 6, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Drudge is saying that the Clinton internals show a 15-point loss in NC, so this fits the scenario to a "T".
May 6, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
In other words, only the insiders know the internals.
May 6, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
ooooooops
May 6, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
22,000 DEAD IN MYNMAR
Let's all HOPE that minor detail does not distract from CHANGE(ing) the subject. As the Messiah by proxy perhaps Barry can get involved.
"If you see the Buddha by the side of the road kill him."
(insert ironic metaphore here)
VOTE YOUR CONSCIENCE
NOT YOUR WHITE GUILTY CONSCIENCE
May 6, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it just me or do RenStimpy's posts read like weird, alt-universe fortune cookies?
May 6, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know, the avatar is difficult enough to overlook that I can just skip over the posts. I doubt I missed anything important...
May 6, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Read this piece early on The Field. And I found it a bit creepy that Al was able to crawl inside my head :)
May 6, 2008 3:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for posting this.
It's getting repetitive, but people keep falling for the same stupid tricks.
I get the impression that some in the media have a mental age of about 8 years old the way they get repeatedly dupe. It's like Linus and Lucy with the football.
May 6, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Along with Formerly NCSteve's post on the Obama scandal drill, this is the best post all season....
Wake me up when it's done....
May 6, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Credit to Giordano, that is.
May 6, 2008 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
You sound worried.
May 6, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You sound handsome and rich.
May 6, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha!
May 6, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Which network will be the first to post a delegates needed to nominate countdown graphic ?
May 6, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmm....yes. And given that this is all so predictable and scripted, doesn't it make you less than confident in our democratic system? The masses are so easily manipulated and this is how we choose our leaders? I still can't over the fact that this country elected George W. Twice.
May 6, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
5:38pm - MSNBC is hyping very heavy turnout in the three big urban counties where Obama is favored.
We can check that one off the list.
May 6, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
5:41pm - Drudge reports "HILLARY'S 'DOUBLE DREAM' DASHED: EXITS SHOW EASY OBAMA WIN IN NC"
May 6, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's early!
May 6, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even after what feels like a million of these primary tuesdays, I am still feeling jumpy and nervous. I have the kind of job where nobody around me all day cares about our talks about this stuff, and I have to work for 2 more hours. Sorry for the randomness, this thread seemed like the best place to express myself. I guess I am a chicken little.
May 6, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think we all feel it. I know I do.
May 6, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, that's why I spent the day away from radio and t.v. with a political-lite friend. Stayed in Ikea until ten after 5:00 (P.T.) so there would be a buffer. By the time we got in the car the breathlessness on the radio was over. Just how I like it.
May 7, 2008 2:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for understanding....
I'm not nervous anymore! Ha!!
May 7, 2008 3:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Love Al Giordano - he really is a wonderful asset during this primary season and keeps me (somewhat) grounded!
May 6, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great post. Thank you.
You omitted the last step. HRC completes her bad theatre, and then I remember the immortal words of Hunter S. Thompson: "Screw those people ... they're dumber than dogs and they'll turn on you for no reason at all."
And then I make another donation to Obama. Screw those people indeed ...
May 6, 2008 6:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I told my husband I don't even want to watch the news tonight. All those breathless announcements, the graphics, the speculating.....during the PA returns I thought I was gonna have a heart attack.
Just wake me in the morning and tell me IT'S ALL OVER.
And Obama took them both!
May 6, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
But am I the only Barack supporter who holds him and his campaign partially responsible for this? They have the same access to the media via morning conference calls. They've let Clinton et al get away with this. Where have you heard them make the argument about Limbaugh and Operation Chaos stealing these primaries? Imagine what Clinton would have made of this had it been working in reverse.
May 6, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kinda makes you wonder what the point is of having the primaries. The results are so dreadfully predictable.
When's this thing gonna be over...
May 6, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know who the intended audience for this script is, don't you?
We are.
And, despite our awareness, ironic distance and imperviousness to spin, we're the only ones who take it seriously.
May 6, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
THE DEAL IS CLOSED!
May 6, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the post. I'm guilty of getting caught up in the spin. I took the whole day off from media today. I recommend it for everyone.
May 6, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really liked your post! This is why I don't watch TV on primary/caucus days. It was so much more pleasant to read your dead-on synopsis of the drill!
May 6, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
10:42 - "So I hope you will go to HillaryClinton.com and support our campaign."
May 6, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel great. 4 point spread in Indiana, 14 in NC; I can live with that. The key is that I've been almost entirely blog-free the past 48 hours; the only unblocked sites I've had are realclearpolitics, intrade, and The Field. The lockout expired at 5:00 pm today MDT, and I've been happily reloading ever since.
So, no Chicken Little hand-wringing for me. Hillary is becoming so crazed that I'm just pretending she's a silly caricature of a candidate, and Obama's haggard-ness seems to have leveled out for now.
So stop the madness! Turn of the computer every once in a while and stick your head outside--maybe even talk with a live person!
May 6, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's gonna take OPEC on, man!
May 6, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, Lake country results are coming in now, and Obama's going to win this thing!
May 6, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too close for a win by Obama. But it sure is a squeaker.
May 7, 2008 1:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
This Chicken Little feels a little better today, but I won't count the Clintons out yet. It ain't over till the pantsuit lady sings.
May 6, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ended up going to a faculty friend's house and eating and drinking all evening. Probably a good choice!
May 7, 2008 12:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
But I wanna believe the hype when it comes in today's flavor.
May 7, 2008 5:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Believe the Obama hype, disregard the Clinton hype.
May 7, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Another day gone and another day of speculations on who will be the next President. Another round of mud slinging and unfounded rumors. And I am not talking about those running to become the next US President. I am talking about the American people – or at least some of them. I am astounded to read some of the things people have to say about those leaders who are willing to put their hand up in a difficult time in the American history. What is it that makes people dig so deep to find their own worse self in the way they speak about the candidates? It’s like being in South Africa all over again back in 1994 when we had our own first democratic elections. The doomsayers lived large. But the truth is that all three would make fairly good Presidents – and all have their flaws. It won’t be the end of America. Can’t people just focus on what makes America great instead of scrapping the bottom of the barrel of humanity in the way they talk about their potential future leader? http://angryafrican.net/2008/05/07/november-is-coming-start-stockpiling-baby/
May 7, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, now... You stop speaking like that you AngryAfrican... U.... (Kidding of course)
Wow, you know for being so angry... Me likes what you just posted... :)
>>
angryafrican.net/2008/05/07/november-is-coming-start-stockpiling-baby/
Posted by AngryAfrican
May 7, 2008 9:45 AM
Another day gone and another day of speculations on who will be the next President. Another round of mud slinging and unfounded rumors. And I am not talking about those running to become the next US President. I am talking about the American people – or at least some of them. I am astounded to read some of the things people have to say about those leaders who are willing to put their hand up in a difficult time in the American history. What is it that makes people dig so deep to find their own worse self in the way they speak about the candidates? It’s like being in South Africa all over again back in 1994 when we had our own first democratic elections. The doomsayers lived large. But the truth is that all three would make fairly good Presidents – and all have their flaws. It won’t be the end of America. Can’t people just focus on what makes America great instead of scrapping the bottom of the barrel of humanity in the way they talk about their potential future leader? http://
Posted by AngryAfrican
May 7, 2008 9:45 AM
>>
Now, this ype of angry posting needs to stop... Sheesh... Do this more often and I might become an AngryAfrican/AmericanIndian/Italian/Hungarian O,o it's messy enough when each part of me argues with the other... o,O I do not want them all angry at the same time... EEEK!
All kidding aside, very good posting, and very true. We have much that makes this country great, yet we miss the point all the time... Very, very good post. :)
May 7, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
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