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Book review: Reinventing Collapse
The premise behind Reinventing Collapse is not new to me. With his disarmingly dry humor, Dmitry Orlov has been posting various articles relating his observations on Peak Oil sites, such as Life After the Oil Crash, and his own blog, for several years. Living between America and Russia, Orlov observed the collapse of the Soviet planned economy, as well as the creeping economic and social malaise that currently affects the US. He astutely draws useful comparisons between the rival superpowers, and offers dire predictions for those that blithely thought the US had simply prevailed on merit.
I question Orlov's assertion that Americans should emulate the political apathy of the Soviet proletariat as a strategy to survive energy collapse. It is true that the people of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) stoically survived a political and economic collapse, which to some extent was precipitated by a peak of national oil production. But during their rebound, Russia and the other FSU republics have had substantial resources of oil and natural gas remaining. Charts of FSU oil production show production peaks in the 1980s, then a deep trough, then increasing production to another, though lesser peak forming right now. The FSU's oil exports actually increased after the trough, and in some circles they are considered a swing producer of oil.
In truth, only certain third world nations have begun to experience the full effects of the Peak Oil collapse that now faces the FSU, the US, and the world. It remains to be seen who will survive and whether any will prosper.
Nevertheless, I highly recommend Orlov's book, if only for his view of our society.
Comments (3)
I would submit that the USSR was going to collapse, sooner or later. The US of A made it happen sooner rather than later. But even without a strong opponent, the communist system simply wasn't viable.
In other words, the collapse of Soviet communism says a lot more about Soviet communism than it says about US capitalism.
May 28, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I went to a doctor last Friday, carrying this book, and he asked what it was about. "It predicts the collapse of the US economy," I replied. The doc, who is ethnic Indian from Mauritius, I think, said, "But that has already happened!"
Essentially, Orlov's premise is that the US and SU were far more alike than different, and are likely to suffer the same fate.
"The Soviet Union and the United States are each either the winner or the runner-up in the following categories: the space race, the arms race, the jails race, the hated evil empire race, the squandering of natural resources race and the bankruptcy race. ... Both believed, with giddy zeal, in science, technology and progress, right up until the Chernobyl disaster occurred. After that there was only one true believer left."
May 28, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, my experience doesn't exactly match Orlov's... but I will say this: there are lots more similarities between the USSR of old and the US of A than most Americans realize (or are likely to admit). The empire thing is there, the patriotism is there, the hubris is there.
The fate of the US will be different because there will be no territorial disintegration (or at least I can't see it). The most likely cause for a downfall of the US is IMO a fascist dictatorship. Unfortunately, I can really see that happening. Bush has been very scary in this regard.
The biggest problem that Americans have is that they let the corporations and the so-called military-industrial complex take over. Neither of those gives a shit about ordinary Americans. Kind of like the Communist Party didn't give a shit about ordinary Russians. They're just cogs in the machine.
The US has one major advantage though. The country has never been as fucked up as Russia. Before the communists took over, Russia was probably the most corrupt and backward "civilized" country, and communism didn't help much. The US is built on a much healthier foundation.
May 28, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
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