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ARG Has Obama Ahead by Double Digits in NC!!!

By Dave Morgan - May 2, 2008, 11:46AM

11 pt lead for Barack Obama in NC.

I figured I should post this, since the TPM people can;t seem to post anything positive about Obama lately.

However, if Hillary Clinton wipes her ass... we get a headling...

"Clinton Shoots Rainbows Out Her Butt!"

Comments (11)

Clinton up by 9 in IN ARG poll.

Posted by brand182
May 2, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink

A result that's as irrelevant as the one posted above. I want to take a moment to applaud Eric and Greg for resisting the temptation to trumpet the ARG result. By one standard, it's newsworthy - it's siginficantly different than other results, and this cycle, that's often all that it's taken to get a result trumpeted for days.

On the other hand, ARG is incredibly opaque. They (apparently) tack their political questions onto the back of paid corporate polls, and so suffer from significant response bias. Most firms err consistently in one direction - ARG results vary at random.

So let's applaud Greg and Eric for their discrimination in passing over this poll. Bravo!

Posted by FlyOnTneWall
May 2, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink

Hmmmm lose NC by 10 win In by 9.... and Obama is still 150 delegates ahead. That's progress for Clinton hahahahahaha!

Posted by DemDave1972
May 2, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink

Not to mention that North Carolina will award 115 pledged delegates, while Indiana will only award 72.

Posted by Ben Hocking
May 2, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink

Aa much as I like this number, 11 points seems too high. But it indicates that Obama may have stopped the bleeding.

Hillary will take Indiana by 10.

But every indication is that the super-delegates are getting reading to close this thing down,

If you run all the numbers of remaining delegates, and give Clinton an edge in what can be won, she picks up 25 delegates from all the remaining contests.

Obama then needs 100 super-delegates to actually win. Apparently he has them.

This leaves her way short. Assuming no NC upset, it's over Wed morning.

Posted by Cypher
May 2, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink

10 is too high in IN. Maybe by 5. This isn't PA. I think he'll get NC by more than that.

Posted by observer2
May 2, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink

As it happens, I still expect Obama to win NC by double digits and to win IN narrowly. That said, ARG means nothing whatever. ARG polls are only marginally more worthwhile than just throwing darts at a board.

Posted by A Missouri voter
May 2, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink

Hill's whole thing at this point is one big psy-ops campaign to depress the African American vote on Tuesday. I really don't think she, or any of her supporters, grasp how well and truly she's pissed them off.

Posted by The Commenter Formerly Known as NCSteve
May 2, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink