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when hillary wins by double digits in pennslyvania

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i am anticipating the overall response from the blogs- it does not matter, do the math, she has no chance, please hillary for the sake of mankind drop out you insufferable horrible person skank that you are, please just leave.

it will be dismissed...as are all things not flattering in the most kind way about senator obama here and elsewhere, nothing counts unless it counts for senator obama

but, given the 3 to 1 spending of the obama campaign, it really should begin to dawn on the casual observer that something quite remarkable has just ocurred

from reading polls it appears more people are turned off by the prospects of a woman president as opposed to a black man being president. the national media and clowns like chris matthews pound on hillary every chance they get, the advertising is overwhelmingly for obama but when hillary wins by double digits, it will all be dismissed, it ought not to be, like the canary in the coal mine, ignore at your own peril


Comments (23)

Yes, there are people who will not vote for her because she is a woman. There are people who will not vote for Barack Because he is black. Despite these two facts, both candidates have bee nable to raise record sums of money, create record turnout, and are relatively close in terms of total votes cast. Although, Barack is winning the delegate count rather handily.

There are people who want to vote for a woman president but do not want to vote for Hillary. It takes a special person to screw up being the presumptive nominee for over a year, running what was supposed to be the best campaign ever, having a three decade headstart in the hearts of voters, to running second place to someone America is only recently getting to know.

This battle, between Barack and Hillary, has been less about whether people want to vote for a woman and more about her failure to close the deal early enough to make it not matter. She could have closed this whole thing down within the first few contests if her campaign wasn't completely clueless. Furthermore, she could have shut the door on Barack if she had any type of plan in place for after Super Tuesday. Instead, she had a dozen losses in a row before hitting friendly territory.

Hillary Clinton failed to close the deal. The contract with America was sitting on her desk waiting to be signed. Instead, she partied and prance around, thinking the contract couldn't be taken away by anyone. By the time she got back to sign it, it was in the hands of Barack Obama.

She was irresponsible and she will pay the price. She ignored all the dead canaries that were scattered around her campaign. You can walk behind her now and dispose of their hardened bodies.

I repeatedly say that I'm neutral and that I think both candidates have strengths and weaknesses, but you know, every time somebody claims that Hillary lost (despite winning almost half the vote), it's a lot like they're saying Obama didn't win.

It is a bit of both. As people get to know Barack, he is more likely to win. I firmly believe he is the superior candidate. They are getting to know him because Clinton didn't shut him down early.

Ummm, isn't the person who won "almost half," by definition, the loser? This isn't peewee league soccer where you get a trophy for a good show.

The last figure that I've seen was Russert's and he had then 47-49, so neither of them had more than half at the time, but that's just matter of semantics.

Anyway, my point was that if I were the candidate, I think I'd rather people believe that I won by beating my opponent and not that I'm the victor because they ran a bad campaign.

PS) And nobody has actually won until the delegates have voted. Once they get over the 2023 mark or whatever it is that year, they're considered the "presumed nominee", but really haven't won until the second-to-last night of the convention.

What Went Wrong with the Clinton Campaign

With the demotion of Mark Penn, it is appropriate to take stock of the Clinton campaign.

There is no doubt that it has been a poorly run campaign. But what has been so bad about it? We could point to a lackluster message, or Bill's various gaffes over the last three months, or the staff that couldn't stop watching soap operas long enough to pay the bills. There's something to all of these things, but I think they are symptoms of an underlying malady.

As you well know, Obama has a huge lead in pledged delegates. But you might not know that nearly 90% of this lead comes from caucuses. Obama has netted 147 delegates via the caucuses alone.

It need not have been this way. Caucuses have exceedingly low turnout - and so victory depends upon organizational prowess. Clinton was poorly organized in the caucus states, and it cost her. For every caucus state she has lost, Clinton could have found enough supporters in those states to at least tied Obama. This is the case even in states where Obama would win a broad-based primary. In Kansas, for instance, Obama had about 18,000 more caucus supporters than Clinton. Grant that Kansas is a state Obama would win in a primary. Shouldn't Clinton have been able to find 18,000 more people? She received less than 10,000 votes for goodness sake!

Even more amazingly, Obama crushed her in states where Clinton probably would have won or barely lost a primary. Obama netted 15 delegates on her in Colorado. He netted 6 in Maine. I'd put the odds of Clinton winning primaries in those states at no less than 50-50. Clinton won the Texas primary outright, but Obama walked away with 9 more delegates in the caucus. Obama won 26 more delegates than Clinton in Washington state. One week later, he beat Clinton in the Washington state beauty contest by just 4 points. Clinton won a clear plurality of voters in the Nevada entrance poll, but Obama walked away with a net of one delegate.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/04/what_went_wrong_with_the_clint.html

She needed to be winning by double digits in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina and California and Texas and Missouri and Maryland and Virginia and Louisiana and Wisconsin, for starters. It's too late now.

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The goal of the Obama campaign has been to cut into the 25 pt. lead Clinton had originally held in Pennsylvania. We often forget that, in a way, Barack Obama has a more difficult task of achieving name recognition than Hillary does. We all know who he is and what he stands for, but not everyone keeps up with this stuff like we do. He's had to basically introduce himself to the state--through appearances and tons of advertising.

With the exception of Casey, the governor and other top officials of the state have endorsed Hillary.

Also, the demographics of the state favor Hillary. Obama is popular with college kids but most of them come to PA. from out of state so they don't vote in PA.

If Obama can cut Hillary's lead to within 10 points, then their campaign will have managed to reach their predicted outcome.
Of course they'd like to win, but this is a more reasonable scenario.

I've never bought the argument that if a candidate is spending 3 times as much money on advertising, if he doesn't win, it was a failure.

To have reduced 25 to 30 point leads in unfavorable states is quite an accomplishment.

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translation: we will ignore it, gotcha

you obama folks are so predicable

all those advantages of cash, organization, charisma...and it keeps falling with a thud in major swing states where the black voting bloc is not sizeable, or else you have tons of smug elitists.

comments but nothing in response to the real issue, keep dodging it, when the primary rolls around, i will be back.

i expect the same ostrich in the sand routine

Well considering most expect her to win in PA, including the Obama campaign, what we'll all do is go on to the next contest. What is it that you would like us to "fess up to?" That we're all going to all of a sudden start calling for Obama to drop out of the race?

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I noticed that the fact that Hillary is being outspent is often raised in the context of it being an unfair advantage held by the Obama campaign.

If Hillary's so set on winning PA, no problem. I'm sure the media markets in PA would be happy to take Hillary's money for ad buys. No unfairness there. No prejudice either - she is the front runner, after all. Although, statistically speaking, she probably has fewer supporters in the media - they being the latte-sipping, educated-impressionable type. But they'd take her money, I'm sure, as long as they knew they would get paid.

You say she doesn't have as much money? Is that unfair too?

all those advantages of cash, organization, charisma

Well, we certainly wouldn't want a candiate like that, would we?

I love it when 3 to 1 spending is offered up as some kind of liability, as if there's something a bit overdone, a bit too much, a bit "gang up" guy about this kind of spending. Like, Check Out This Big Outspender, check out this guy who just can't seem to spend enough. When Clinton or her supporters bring up Obama's spending, the subtext always seems to be, "This is the kind of guy who has seventy-five pairs of socks." I mean, the guy just doesn't know when to stop.

It seems many have forgotten that until very recently, everyone has known Hillary Clinton and nobody has known Barack Obama.

And the fact that Mr. Nobody is now the Democratic frontrunner underscores just how wildly successful Obama's campaign has been.

The fact that Obama CAN outspend Hillary Clinton is even more impressive. The guy who was nobody just a short while ago is now a guy who has inspired so many people like me, people who don't have much spare change, to donate-- not once, but many times.

So...let's get real about outspending. Barack Obama is still the guy with the scary pastor to many people in PA, so of course he has to outspend. In fact, it's rather incredible that Mr. Nobody is only outspending Mrs. Household Fixture by a pretty modest 3 to 1. I mean, if his outspending were more in synch with the odds? Well, where would we place that-- a thousand to one? A million to one?

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when hillary wins by double digits, the media will comment on what a tough old bird she is, another clinton comeback, the thing that will not die, blah blah blah, and then the race will move on to NC, where she'll lose and the pundits again will call for her to quit the race, since she has no chance of winning the most pledged delegates.

... or your alarm will go off, waking you up from your dream to find out hillary only won by 6 points, giving her just a slight delegate lead from the state, but no where within striking distance of obama. either one sounds plausible to me.

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I noticed that the fact that Hillary is being outspent is often raised in the context of it being an unfair advantage held by the Obama campaign.

If Hillary's so set on winning PA, no problem. I'm sure the media markets in PA would be happy to take Hillary's money for ad buys. No unfairness there. No prejudice either - she is the front runner, after all. Although, statistically speaking, she probably has fewer supporters in the media - they being the latte-sipping, educated-impressionable type. But they'd take her money, I'm sure, as long as they knew they would get paid.

You say she doesn't have as much money? Is that unfair too?

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Yes, pay no attention to the fact that Hillary has all the advantage in name recognition, and the fact that Hillary has a former president campaigning full time for her. Gosh, I suppose Obama should be able to overcome all of that and come from 20% behind by spending less or the same as Hillary.

Give me a break, you pretty much just repeated the Hillary campaign's new excuse for PA word for word.

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Hmmmm... it appears that Ms. Grainger buys in to the Clinton argument -- expressed most recently by the candidate herslf on Michelle Norris' NPR show -- that there is this "double standard" applied to Clinton.

When asked by Ms. Norris about the fact that "if Hillary Clinton wins, it's because she wins 'dirty'." Clinton responded that both candidates would have to get the support of super delegates to win (true). That there is a double standard applied to her (unfounded). When asked by Ms. Norris to describe what she meant, at first said "Well, anyone who's watching closely knows what I mean." Pressed to describe the "double standard" exactly, Clinton said, "I always get asked the question!" (Suggesting that being asked about her campaign strategy by reporters is a double standard.)

So, IF Hillary wins by any margin in Pennsylvania, we will say what we've always said: Clinton will have played the gender card, pretended to be the victim (of non-existent, imaginary slights), thrown the kitchen sink at her opponent, and lied up one side and down the other. That's what we'll say.

And then we'll start talking again about the presumptive Democratic nominee, Sen. Barack Obama.

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The reality is that Obama needs to spend that money here in PA because a lot of folks still don't know who he is (people refer to him as "Baramba" and think Barack is his surname) and many people still think he's a Muslim even after the whole Wright kerfluffle.

Even my very well-educated mother-in-law (who's 89 and a lifelong Democrat) was having a tough time deciding how to vote. She loved Bill and really thinks Hillary is just "so intelligent" but she was upset about Hillary's war vote. When I pointed out that Obama is every bit as intelligent as Hillary, she scoffed. Then I told he he was president of the Harvard Law Review and graduated from Columbia and that both his parents were Ph.D.'s. She had no idea (even though I lent her his autobiography several years ago). Now I think she's going to vote for him. But the point is that most Americans are not politically-minded, and they don't have a clue about any of the candidates besides what they "heard or read somewhere."

Obama is still very new to people, and for the media or the Clinton or McCain campaigns to feign shock that he's spending so much money is disingenuous at best. He's raised the money to win the nomination so why on earth wouldn't he spend it to do so? Those criticisms are little more than sour grapes.

Hillary had a tremendous advantage in terms of her war chest and her status as the most famous woman in this country. If Obama hadn't out-raised and out-maneuvered her, he would have been out of the race after Iowa. It was her race to lose after all.


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a lot of people do not know who he is?

have they been in caves?

I hate to say it because of the consequences, but if Hillary wins big in Pennsylvania, it will become a huge problem for Obama and the Democratic Party. There will be peril that can't be ignored and that may be insurmountable.

A big Hillary win in PA won't mean Hillary can win the nomination based on voter preference, but it will increase her prospects of shattering the party and costing Democrats the election. The battle will go on and, if Hillary thinks nasty tactics are working, it will get nastier. Hillary may be able to persuade enough superdelegates to overturn the aggregate results of numerous primaries and caucuses. In that event, she'll get the nomination at the convention.

Unfortunately, there will be little time left to undo John's McCain's many months of media-aided anti-Democratic messaging. If the nomination comes that late (whether to Hillary or Obama), the whole GE campaign will be consumed by attempting to untarnish the Democratic candidate, who will be greeted by multiple salvos of fresh Swiftboat style attacks repeated endlessly on TV. There will be no time for anything but trying to contradict negative impressions. There will be no time for healing Democratic campaign wounds, which will be deep. Despite the nation's serious problems, enough people will vote for McCain or not vote for the Democrat to ensure a complete travesty in what should be the best Democratic year in memory.

Obama won't be able to win against McCain. We've seen how Hillary campaigns, and there's no doubt she will have convinced her ardent supporters that she was robbed. This could include not only older women convinced Obama stole the dream of feminism, but also, if Hillary tars Obama as anti-Israel or antisemitic, a significant block of Jewish voters. It could include blue-collar Democrats Hillary has convinced Obama is not in their corner, low-income Democrats Hillary has convinced Obama will deprive of healthcare reform, and foreign-policy-oriented Democrats convinced Obama is not fit to be commander-in-chief.

Hillary will also lose if she's the nominee, probably by a bigger margin. African Americans and people under 40 will leave the Democratic Party in droves. This will be more than sour grapes. If a black guy gets the most elected delegates and doesn't get the nomination, African Americans who have been seeking justice for generations will know they've been denied justice in a very important matter. Add to that the way Hillary has campaigned and we might be looking at a long-term realignment of American political parties in which the Democratic base loses its most loyal constituency. It will also lose its most promising new constituency. Young people - white, black and Latino - who worked so hard to win so many elections and caucuses will know they've been robbed and who did it: old politicians gaming the system. These young people won't vote for Hillary not because they didn't get their favorite candidate, but because they are idealistic. One of their ideals is pretty basic: having the person with the most votes win an election. Look for young people and African Americans to found a significant third party as the only hope of ensuring a closer correspondence between how people vote and who gets elected. The same concern will bring in most academics and consumer advocates.

What will be left of the Democratic Party? An alliance of shrinking unions who have good reason for their anti-business views, pro-business DINOs who don't care for unions or trouble-making women's rights activists, and strong older feminists who know the unions and DINOs consider them a neverending pain. You'll also have the over-the-hill gang of elected officials gaping slack-jawed at three constituencies that can't stand one another. Soon there will be only two constituencies to gape at. It will take one election cycle for the DINOs to pull a mass Lieberman, molting their Democratic skin to reveal enduring "moderate" Republican hide.

So you'll just be left with the unions and the older feminists staring each other down over conference tables in smaller meeting rooms. They'll call for three cheers for Hillary, but they'll only be able to muster two.

You can call this view apocalyptic, and maybe it is. But if a campaign is deeply and artfully divisive, there is a risk that it will succeed in dividing people to this extent. And if the winner of the nomination wins despite having fewer votes and fewer elected delegates, allowing the outcome to stand flushes a very, very basic principle down the drain. The choice won't feel like it's between Hillary and McCain, but between Hillary and elective democracy. Hillary will be the better candidate on issues, but one-person, one-vote democracy is more important than any single issue, and more important than Hillary.


Though I honestly think that Obama will be the eventual nominee, I still say that all of this campaining is doing us good. In response to somebody's post the other day about the Kentucky polls, I did some quick checking and I can only find reference to one appearance by John Kerry in that state, so all of the attention that they've been getting which will be increasing over the next few weeks is getting our message out there.

And, though I can't take credit for first thinking it, but I've seen somebody point out that by forcing the candidates to visit every state, they are having to learn about their issues and their concerns, so they'll be better able to talk to them in the fall and more equipped to answer their needs.

The SwiftBoats are coming and they're not going to be Hillary's fault. After all, the original SwiftBoats took out a legitimate war hero over his military performance and this time, they'll be on the side of a fellow Vietnam vet against somebody with no military experience, whatsover.

The attack groups also have other issues being worked-up. I could link to a couple of things, but I'm not going to do it now. But, Hillary being in the race, forcing the candidates to actually campaign, increasing voter turnout and giving an outlet for those who don't want to vote for Obama, I don't really think is hurting anything and besides all of the above good, right now there's two headline-generating Democrats arguing against McCain.

Hope I'm wrong and you're right that the net effect of prolonging the race is beneficial. Can't see it, though.

The SwiftBoats won't be Hillary's fault. However, she doesn't have to make the attacks on Obama more credible. I also object to allowing the SwiftBoaters - known for remarkably unfair attacks usually without foundation - to choose the Democratic nominee.

Also, I think Hillary's claimed to a sort of invulnerability through vetting is bogus, not because she has anything to hide, but because 1) the Republicans hate her so much more, 2) they've been building a dossier on her for many years, and 3) they thought she was going to be the nominee all along so that's where they spent the most energy thinking up smears and planting what they need to make MSM repeat it.

They haven't emptied the dossier on Hillary. The dossier is infinite because they just add stuff as necessary without regard to the truth.

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