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Well, she said it
When she said "massive retaliation" I wondered what that meant. I didn't jump to the conclusion of massive nuclear retaliation - after all we have a lot of fire power. But today Keith Olberman pressed her on those debate comments and she said it. She would use massive NUCLEAR retaliation agains Iran if they were to hit Israel AND any other nation in the region. That is an extremely hawkish statement, Napoleonesque. Certainly there is a need to deter Iran. Obama's approach is to attempt negotiation with Ahmadinejad, use sanctions and determine appropriate retaliation based on the action. Hillary's approach is to NOT talk to Ahmadinejad and threaten Massive Nuclear Attack should they attack a neighbor nation. Exactly how much destruction would massive nuclear attack effect on the region? Certainly we protect Israel. We also have protected friendly nations like Kuwait. Our position is known. Certainly we always have our nukes to fall back on but really, Iran is not Russia.
I don't think there is anyone in this country that looks back and thinks that Hiroshima was a good thing. A pundit from Newsweek (forgot his name) made an excellent point after the interview. His point was that Iran doesn't directly attack Israel. The do it via support for Hamas or Hezbolla. Exactly who and were do we nuke? Lebanon, who would be under the umbrella but unhappily harboring Hezbolla? How about starting with rational negotiations. Ahmandinejad may or may not be able to have a rational conversation with the US, but starting out with a promise of nuclear attack would probably guarantee it no rationality. It's just plain reckless.







Comments (173)
Thank you for saying what I was trying to say here, only you said it better:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/are-you-all-watching-hillary-o.php
April 21, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? I thought the context of her remarks was a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran. How did that get dropped out of the angry buzz?
April 22, 2008 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
To say that a nuclear attack on Israel is the same as a nuclear attack on the US, ala NATO, is reckless and completely detached from the regional realities.
If, God forbid, such an attack did occur, the likelihood that it was a government doing the attacking is pretty slim. So, as the blogger clear asks, who do we attack?
Hillary's stance on so many things is reckless and naive and woefully short of anything resembling coherent thought.
It's as if her campaign decided they could act exactly like neocons (I call them neolibs, flip-side of the same filthy fascist coin) and none of the democrats would notice. They thought we had been so hypnotized by the last eight years of neocon White House and neocon/neolib Congress.
Barack bet that the American people would be willing to wake up from this nightmare of corporate-controlled government just in time. I am so happy it appears he was right.
April 22, 2008 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's the regional realities she's trying to alter by proposing a NATO-like organization to bring Sunni Arabs and Israel under the same umbrella.
What's wrong with that?
April 22, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not one thing.
April 22, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because she does not believe that Nato or the UN can have any power over what the US does. She wants no checks on our power. She defended her Iraq vote by making it equivocal to the US going into Kosovo even though the UN did not approve. She has no intention to abide by international law because she believes that the US is all powerful and to hell with the UN and Nato.
Don't believe me? See her meeting with code pink 2 weeks before the invasion of Iraq.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_KEWUU33Lg
History repeats itself.
April 22, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Turning your sovereignty over to the UN or NATO is not the point to the UN or NATO. NATO is about mutual defense. There is nothing in NATO to keep you from defending yourself, only to guarantee you'll have help doing it -- and, with the US in NATO, all the help you need. Ask the ex-Soviets.
April 22, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
defending Israel is not defending ourselves.
April 22, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Isreal has it's own nukes - why the F do we need to drop any?
April 22, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't live in a bubble. There are many other players when it comes to war and defending Israel is not the same as defending ourselves from a nuclear attack here. Israel has it's own nukes which are positioned to allow them a second strike against Iran should Iran strike first. For us as a superpower to threaten to destabilize the balance of nuclear relations to avenge our friend who has it's own firepower is beyond reckless.
BTW Iran has no nukes and based on the 10-17-07 NIE report:
"Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously."
She's sabre rattling with our nuclear weapons.
April 22, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neo-Liberal is actually a real term that describes the right-wing, free-market extremism displayed by most modern conservatives.
April 22, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they would get the nukes where?
April 22, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of the mumbo-jumbo insinuations, let's go to her words exactly. She's spot on and that's exactly what i was expecting but never heard from Obama.
"Well what we were talking about was the potential for a nuclear attack by Iran, if Iran does achieve what appears to be it's continuing goal of obtaining nuclear weapons, and I think deterrence has not been effectively used in recent times, we used it very well during the Cold War when we had a bipolar world, and what I think the president should do and what our policy should be is to make it very clear to the Iranians that they would be risking massive retaliation were they to launch a nuclear attack on Israel. In addition, if Iran were to become a nuclear power, it could set off an arms race that would be incredibly dangerous and destabilizing because the countries in the region are not going to want Iran to be the only nuclear power. So I can imagine that they would be rushing to obtain nuclear weapons themselves. In order to forestall that, creating some kind of a security agreement where we said, 'No, you do not need to acquire nuclear weapons if you were the subject of an unprovoked nuclear attack by Iran the United States and hopefully our NATO allies would respond to that as well.' It is a theory that some people have been looking at because there is a fear that if Iran, which I hope we can prevent, becoming a nuclear power, but if they were to become one, some people worry that they are not deterrable, that they somehow have a different mindset and a worldview that might very well lead the leadership to be willing to become martyrs. I don't buy that, but I think we have to test it. And one of the ways of testing it is to make it very clear that we are not going to permit them, if we can prevent it, from becoming a nuclear power, but were they to become so, their use of nuclear weapons against Israel would provoke a nuclear response from the United States, which personally I believe would prevent it from happening, and that we would try to help the other countries that might be intimidated and bullied into submission by Iran because they were a nuclear power, avoid that fate by creating this new security umbrella."
April 21, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo35adm - this is a "manufactured issue" and you obviously don't know it.
April 21, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes it's being manufactured into a McCain-like bomb bomb bomb meme by the blogosphere as we speak. Watch Josh Marshall and Kos write some pompous commentary tomorrow.
Intellect obviously left untouched many pretty faces in the profile pictures, from what I can tell
April 21, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
this is not a 'manufactured controversy'. this is Hillary showing she has absolutely no idea what it means to be President. Hillary's comments will alarm governments from Europe to Asia - China buys a lot of energy products from Iran; Russia and China sell lots of arms and other technology to the region. Both countries could decide to declare their own defense umbrella over their trading partner. Hillary just made the real world a more dangerous place. She needs to apologize and get off the world stage NOW.
April 21, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The President of the United States has no authority to launch nuclear attacks against a nation that has attacked another not involved in a treaty with our government. No such treaty exists for any nation in the Middle East. We deployed and pushed Saddam out of Kuwait at the express requests of the Kuwaiti and Saudi governments. To make such a statement tells me she needs to speak with Joe Biden a bit more. Biden for President!! Oh wait.
April 22, 2008 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
How do we know what secret treaties bush may have signed?
He's done everything else in secret!!!
April 22, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
FWIW, secret treaties are illegal under international law. A precedent set at the Treaty of Westphalia, I believe. (Anyone better at history please feel free to correct me). Although the Bush Administration probably wouldn't care.
April 22, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Secret treaties are also illegal under the Constitution. "He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur;" (Article 2, Section 2).
Not that Bush cares about the Constitution, but I can't imagine an illegal treaty would be enforceable.
April 22, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is some of the dumbest, war-mongering rhetoric I've heard since, um, yesterday I guess, when SoS Rice called the most dangerous man in Iraq a "coward."
Hillary is going to nuke Iran if they look at her the wrong way? Hillary is going to get us out of Iraq by starting an arms race in the Middle East? Hillary is going to apply her campaign finance managing skills to solving our mega-deficit?
Wow, no wonder KO let her ramble on and on and on. All you have to do is listen to her to get the impression fairly quickly that she is bat-shit crazy. Or a Republican. I don't see much difference.
April 21, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
No nuclear weapon has been used in the field in sixty three years. They were used on the theory that they were necessary to bring to its end a war that had cost many hundreds of thousands of soldiers' lives and would, some believed, cost hundreds of thousands more.
Threatening to use them against Iran, a nation with which we are not at war as preemptive deterrence, is truly taking the Republican trend toward greater and less defensible uses of force that began at Grenada, continued through Panama, then to the first Gulf War, then to the Iraq occupation, to a crazy new extreme. Iran is already well aware that we have nuclear weapons, and they therefore serve a deterrent purpose. If Iran is deterrable, they should be deterred now. If Iran is not, goading it with an invitation to engage in some Armageddonlike conflict is pure idiocy. Thank God she's toast. Is there any reason we can't suggest that we'd take out all Iranian military targets with strategic air and missile power? Or is it now our foreign policy to suggest trading mass slaughter of civilians? I guess just during primaries when we want to look hawkish, when we're running Second Amendment robocalls and throwing back boilermakers, for it has nothing to do with statespersonship.
Putting the comment in all its glorious context in no way rehabilitated the stupidity at its core. And how anyone could claim to expect such a grandiose threat from Obama, or anyone with an IQ over 82, is beyond comprehension.
April 21, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, they should be deterred now, but our President is not doing it. And Obama will try to do it by holding hands with them.
April 21, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Out psycho-ing Bush is a really interesting tactic as a solution for the problems of the status quo (although that seems to be McCain's idea too).
April 21, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you article man, well said.
April 21, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahem, I think you are conveniently forgetting the four nuclear missiles that we deployed in 1987 against Costa Rica, when the communists tried to get a foothold on the Panama Canal and the Nazis down in Argentina captured Nikolo Stalin.
April 22, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damnit, no, that was an alternate universe. Never mind--you're right. No nuclear weapons since Nagasaki in your reality.
April 22, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's talking in the context of a nuclear Iran, no? A smart guy like you shouldn't have to distort reality of make your point. I think she's finally driven you people crazy.
April 22, 2008 7:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Billy,
Iran stopped its nuclear program. All of its nuclear materials from power are accounted for.
Both the NIE and IAEA say this. Why, why is she setting up this scarecrow that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. The evidence in not there! It is not!
Scaring people into thinking this is true is no different than the Bush Admin pushing the Saddam WMD story.
Her rant now is almost word for word what her floor speech authorizing the Iraq war was. No wonder she would not apologize for it. She still believes the admin was right to invade.
She's not a democrat - she's a neocon.
April 22, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
actually, their file is in the UN, because there are still unanswered questions by the IAEA and access to certain sites that has been denied. China and Russia have pretty good intel, and it's hard to see them going along with these sanctions, if they weren't convinced Iran wants more than energy.
That said, Hillary's comments were reprehensible, but she might have just been lying.
April 22, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's not distorting reality. Assuming a nuclear Iran is a distortion of reality.
April 22, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just to be clear, I'm not saying he's not distorting Senator Clinton's response at all. I'm just saying that distorting a hypothetical scenario is not distorting reality.
April 22, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think what she was saying was EASY and EMPTY.
Question: What if Portugal developed nuclear weapons and fired them at Israel?
Answer: We would obliterate them off the map!
Stupid question, stupid answer.
Last I checked, Iran has no nukes. Last I heard, they won't be "allowed" to have them.
April 22, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
The radiation from a N-attack on Iran would kill Israelis too. So nuclear is out. For conventional attack, where is she gonna get the troops? It's not just McCain who has a secret plan to bring back the draft - it's Hillary too!
April 21, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deter Iran from what? Didn't the latest intelligence report indicate that Iran isn't anywhere close to having nuclear weapons?
Although with this kind of sabre-rattling from the US, I have to assume that getting them is the Iranian regime's #1 priority ...
I can't wait till President Obama restores some sanity to US foreign policy. (Knock wood!)
April 21, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
*knocks on wood*
April 21, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
agree - looks like Hillary has been too busy campaigning to read the NIE again.
April 21, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS - what is everybody talking about? Israel already has over a hundred nuclear weapons and advanced missiles. And they sure as hell aren't waiting for some jerk in DC to authorize a response!
April 21, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank You!
PS Hillary doesn't know that because she doesn't like to read NIE's or intelligence briefs.
April 21, 2008 11:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you say circular speak?
But to make a point:
"It is a theory that some people have been looking at because there is a fear that if Iran, which I hope we can prevent, becoming a nuclear power, but if they were to become one, some people worry that they are not deterrable, that they somehow have a different mindset and a world view that might very well lead the leadership to be willing to become martyrs. I don't buy that, but I think we have to test it."
If they become a nuclear power with have a martyr complex - YOU DON'T WANT TO TEST IT! That leads to unpredictable results in a very bad way.
For someone who presents themselves as the intellectual policy wonk this whole construction is so amateurish. It's so . . so . . . so . . . Bushesque.
It begs the question: "Have you really thought this through?" It reinforces the conclusion put forth over the original war vote - if she is guilty of warped logic and poor judgment in the first instance is she not not prone to repeat the same mistake. I think this postulation answers that question.
April 21, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Such a nice, Keith-like way to take half of a quote, squeeze everything out of a juicy word and ignore the rest of the point. But why expect more in this echo-chamber.
Good night everyone and sweet dreams about Obama's sweet-talking Iranians into backing away from "wiping Israel from the face of the earth".
April 21, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And so the hit and run blogging ends, not with an argument, but with a whimper . . .
April 21, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I notice your snappy comments have sort of dried up, too. There's a question on the table this morning that only Ghengis and codegen have been willing to step up to. Why not weigh in?
April 22, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
They are just words Lalo. Are we going to nuke every country that says "death to Americans"? There wouldn't be any countries left. Most of the world hates our guts over the Iraq thing.
Then Hillary has to take it a step further. Now countries who threaten our friendly countries, well they are going to get it too.
Hillary Clinton - respect us and our allies or we'll obliterate you.
April 22, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's the distortion. Cut it out.
April 22, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary can throw out hypothetical situations where she would obliterate countries, we can hypothesize on why that is an insane idea. Why you would chastise us for using higher intellectual reasoning than your own candidate is beyond me.
April 22, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys are ridiculous. A theory of nuclear deterrence is a way of keeping the peace. Not starting a war.
The doctrine further assumes that neither side will dare to launch a first strike because the other side will launch on warning (also called fail-deadly) or with secondary forces (second strike) resulting in the destruction of both parties. The payoff of this doctrine is expected to be a tense but stable peace.
This is a far more sophisticated way of looking at the Iran nuclear problem than Obama's solution of bombing Iran if they went nuclear. Wake up!
April 21, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's the one to say bomb Iran if they become nuclear. He's the one to say try diplomacy first, we always have our vast arsenal to fall back on.
And really, if we wanted to lay some heavy bombs we could certainly render Iran helpless using conventional ones.
But Hillary and McBush could sing a lovely rendition of Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Bom Iran together.
April 21, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
She didn't say that. Read the transcript again. She uses the threat as a retaliation strike if they do a first strike against Israel. Clearly she understands the MAD doctrine.
April 21, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is looking beyond what the current landscape looks like, if Iran should acquire nuclear weapons. It is meant to prevent a single bomb from being dropped.
April 21, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
MAD. Mutually Assured Destruction. Better look this word up, brother. Is Iran threatening the US with nuclear strikes? Do they have nukes? More importantly, do they have ICBMs to deliver such a payload? Do we have a treaty with Israel? With Saudi Arabia? Syria? Yemen? Fighting Iranian influence will not take the form of nuclear retaliation. To believe so is foolish. For a candidate to suggest it is irresponsible and not in accordance with the facts on the ground.
I knew she was a hawk, but this is ridiculous. Bill probably vomited in his mouth a little when he heard that.
April 22, 2008 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't invert things. A treaty organization similar to NATO or SEATO is what she's laying the ground for. What's wrong with that? Would you oppose a mutual defense organization that included Israel and the Sunni Arab states?
April 22, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't actually oppose such a treaty, but no such thing exists and this won't help it along. To say we are willing to provide an umbrella of protection under such and such treaty would be fine. But there isn't one and to include Arab states in a treaty with Israel wouldn't seem to be something anyone could accomplish. And such a treaty would need to be strategically negotiated, which no such negotiation has even been spoken of.
It was a sloppy and clumsy way to introduce a treaty for the region, if indeed that is what she was doing.
If I intend to represent a client in court, but have not as of yet even spoken with the parties involved. I certianly wouldn't say I'm going to sue evryone for millions of behalf of someone who isn't even my client.
April 22, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. That's what's visionary about it. Can she do it? I don't know. But I think that confronting the real threat to Israel and the Sunni states in the region is a good place to start.
April 22, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is you would have to create conflicting treaties to deal with 1) the threat to Israel from both Sunni states and Iran and 2) a treaty to protect Sunni states from attacks by Iran.
By creating a treaty for Israel, you embroil yourself in the Lebanese Hezbollah/Israeli conflict, you put yourself in a terrible position to negotiate anything with other Arab and Islamic states, and you create a situation that places American resources in jeopardy.
By creating a treaty with Sunni states, you are immediately placing American interests against Iran. If the threat is real and expansion is Iran's game, fine. But is it?
This wasn't well thought out, and has little to do with MAD. NATO allied states were a bulwark against Soviet expansion and it worked well, but it wasn't based upon MAD. MAD is a situation between two states with similar capabilities. Iran doesn't have the capabilities to ensure our destruction. There might be a situation of MAD between Iran and Israel, if Iran ever develops the Bomb. But that has nothing to do with us. I see no situation in which such a treaty could exist in the Middle East.
April 22, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, she thinks the Iranian threat is real. And you're right. We would have to completely transform the Middle East to build an alliance that included Israel and Arab states. Peace would be a pre-condition. Are those bad things. Arabs and Israelis at peace? The US committed to reacting to an attack on them by Iran as an attack on ourselves?
April 22, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those are definitely good things. But why is threatening Iran with nuclear retaliation a step in that direction? I realize detterence is the reason you've been arguing, and I would agree such threats might stop an attack on Israel if we had a treaty to carry that out. But why is that in our interests? In a closed setting involving Iran and Israel only it would work, but I think the Middle East is too complex to approach it that way.
April 22, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can't penetrate this wall of ignorance, man. This is the same MoveOn mentality that got us please don't invade Afghanistan and the General Betrayus meme.
April 22, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lets read her words again
She obviously thinks we are stupid. Iran the only nuclear power? Israel has a buttload of nuclear weapons given to them by us. I don't really think we need to get in the middle of it. Israel can certainly deter Iran. They have the only nukes in the area.
April 22, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nuclear deterrence in general and the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction in particular presupposes that both sides can inflict devastating losses on the other thereby creating the tenuous detante which you describe.
That is clearly not the case in this instance as Iraq might in the (near/distant) future have the capabilities (under the best/worst of circumstances) to assemble a relatively crude device coupled with some primitive delivery mechanism which may as likely drop it it the ocean as deliver it anywhere accurately. There is no "Mutual" and definitely no "Assured Destruction" in this scenario.
The fact that we possess and arsenal capable of extinguishing their existence is well understood by all parties and the explicit stating of that fact is redundant and frankly counter productive.
If somehow they were able to acquire or assemble a device they would have to realize that the use of such a device would represent a national leadership suicide pact. Therefore, by definition someone suicidal is not going to be affected by the rational concept of deterrence.
April 21, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Read the transcript. She doesn't believe that they are suicidal maniacs - as you characterize the Iranians. At least we should try, she says.
April 21, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's fine then try - but back to my initial point the only circumstance under which you can deploy a nuclear weapon in the nuclear geopolitical landscape is if you have a arsenal capable of launching your sortie and while maintaining a sufficient strategic capability to deter the annihilation which otherwise is sure to follow (the Launch on Warning doctrine).
So in either case it makes no difference - if they employ a nuclear weapon they are through, so from deterrent standpoint its a ridiculous statement. If you preemptively initiate a nuclear release your state will not continue - That's a given.
April 22, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and she would like to test that.
April 22, 2008 12:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
airwon, I make this point in more detail downthread, but deterrence involves threats, and threats have the downside of alienating a country and encouraging militancy. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, then we will have to ensure that there is a deterrent. But right now, there is nothing to deter, so Clinton's comments recklessly inflame Iran with no clear benefit.
April 22, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
April 22, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they want to have the same toys as their "Peaceful" neighbor, Israel.
April 22, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you test someones commitment to martyrdom by threatening to attack them? "We have to test it" How do you test someones commitment to martyrdom by threatening to attack them? By forcing their hands so they attack? How do you nuke Iran without causing damage to our "umbrella" nations? This isn't a deterrent to developing nuclear weapons, it's only a threat for if they were to be used.
"It could set off an arms race that would be incredibly dangerous and destabilizing because the countries in the region are not going to want Iran to be the only nuclear power."
There already are nukes in the region. Pakistan and India already have nukes.
It's bravado rather than diplomacy.
April 21, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is why this is an interesting way of looking at the problem in the Middle East.
We already have similar thinking in North East Asia. And that is why China, South Korea, and Japan are all against N. Korea having nuclear weapons.
It is a new way of looking at a potentially nuclear middle east.
April 21, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another way of looking at the middle east.
To approach it from the broader aspect of nuclear diplomacy I offer the following (just my opinion):
"Don't bring a knife to a gunfight"
As far as the middle east is concerned Israel is pretty much an acknowledged nuclear state - at least the surrounding Arab states seem to think so. In this case deterrence seems to be working and Israel has been at peace with the surrounding states for about 40 yrs.
Iran is nervous and would like the same assurance or insurance. When everybody else has the gun and you have the knife you feel like the bitch in the room and any negotiated outcome is a farce.
True accords are only reached when both side have something at stake. That's why all these "my way or the highway" peace accords have failed miserably.
April 21, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's MAD.
Israel's problem with a possible nuclear Iran isn't any really fear of being nuked; that's just for the tourists.
The real strategic issue is than an arab or Farsi nuclear power in the middle east negates--again by MAD--the strategic advantage that being the missle east's only nuclear power gives Israel.
Once your neighbours or their patrons start having nuclear weapons, you can't--as Israel just did to Lebanon--carpet bomb them anymore. They get fed up and start muttering about massive retaliation, which have to take seriously because of MAD.
April 21, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for saying what I was trying to say. It effectively ends Israel's reign as superpower of the middle east.
April 22, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pakistan will get there before Iran. The focus on Iran is fear mongering.
April 22, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Get where? Pakistan already has nuclear weapons. What are you talking about?
April 22, 2008 8:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, that is the argument that Hillary is making.
April 22, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary wins the nomination, I'm voting for McCain.
At least he has the guts to be in the Republican Party for real.
April 22, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fortunately, Senator Clinton is not going to win the nomination. The sooner we all accept that fact, the sooner we can remove that microphone from her hands. That is the second best thing we can do for our national security. Removing the Bush administration from power is the best thing.
April 22, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a quote from Good Morning America today from Ms. Warpath:
"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton said. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."
She is just hammering that down in this 11th hour. She must figure it appeals to that central PA bitter person who votes on single issues rather than careful consideration.
April 22, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. So I guess the decision to vote for AUMF was not an aberration, after all.
Got it.
April 22, 2008 3:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of reading Bademus's bullshit out-of-context quote, go upthread where her entire statement is posted. One of the problems with the echo chamber is you consistently read what you want to read and disregard the rest. Why is that?
April 22, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
How can ANYONE who lived through the uncertainties of the Cold War, and channeling our insecurities into stupid B movies about radioactive monsters, and "duck and cover," and The Day After, and "I Hope the Russians Love Their Children Too" want to bring us back to another standoff?
And how can they call themselves a Democrat?
Thank heavens she's not winning the nomination. Maybe by electing Obama, we'll reassure the rest of the world that while we are still quite powerful, we can also be reasonable.
And we can read NIEs.
April 22, 2008 4:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heres a question: Does her nuclear umbrella apply to all ally countries? Does it apply to N.Korea vs. S.Korea and India vs. Pakistan? If not, why not? Inquiring minds want to know...
April 22, 2008 5:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pakistan and India are both our allies. Why not make a fair argument. If you believe we should disarm, say so. If you believe we should only use nuclear weapons if we are attacked directly, say so.
She is laying the ground for a visionary proposal that would create a NATO-like alliance, including Israel and Sunni countries, under the protection of our nuclear (and other) umbrella. NATO, SEATO, ..... METO? What's wrong with that?
April 22, 2008 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Boy that would really send the oil prices through the roof. Bombing the region that supplies a large % of oil to the world.
April 22, 2008 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Senator You-Know-Her does not have the first clue about real life on planet earth. Only a completely unbalanced maniac would suggest putting America's very existence at risk for a transient crusader state of no strategic value to the United States. Zionist Israel does not vote in American elections, pay American taxes, or deploy its "army" to serve repeated stop-loss tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan (so a few American GIs can catch a break once in awhile). Some ally! So why does You-Know-Her threaten to nuke Iran or any other country on Israel's behalf? Such a threat, if taken seriously by potential targets of our Lunatic-Leviathan/Warfare-Welfare Mother, makes America a target instead of Israel! What a monstrously irresponsible position for any American president to take.
Personally, I don't give a shit about Apartheid, Zionist Israel and couldn't care less what happens or doesn't happen to the place. But that aside, some of us can remember the ecological disaster that Saddam Hussein's retreating army caused by lighting only a few oil wells on fire (with pathetically low powered explosives) as they retreated from Kuwait in 1992. Imagine dropping a "massive" ammout of explosives (of any type) on the world's greatest underground ocean of oil and setting it ablaze for a hundred years! Just try to imagine hurricane-sized columns of greasy black smoke rising up into the atmosphere to blanket the entire earth from the sunlight energy upon which all life depends. A "nuclear winter" of that magnitude wouldn't even require muclear weapons to set it off. A few hundred one-ton conventional bunker busters would do nicely. Adding nukes, of course, just adds long-half-life radio-activity to the already-fatal concentrations of smoke in the upper atmosphere. Again, what a complete and utter maniac to even hint at such a self-instigated apocalypse! And as naturally occurs in America when potential disaster looms, the critical question goes unasked: for what?
A nation dumb and subservient enough to twice acquiesce in letting Deputy Dubya Bush and Buffaloed Girl anywhere near the country's government probably has terminal problems in any event. I agree with Chalmers Johnson and so many other informed observers that the corruption and rot of militarist-imperial America has gone too far for rational redress. The crazy people have escaped Bedlam and now busy themselves madly working the convoluted levers of the biggest Rube Goldberg doomsday machine ever imagined.
April 22, 2008 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Listen up, echo chamber.
If Clinton is laying the ground for a visionary proposal that would create a NATO-like alliance, including Israel and Sunni countries, under the protection of our nuclear (and other) umbrella. NATO, SEATO, ..... METO? What's wrong with that?
Do you oppose the idea? Why? Wasn't NATO a key factor in preventing nuclear proliferation in Europe?
Argue responsibly, please.
April 22, 2008 8:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll bite. If Iran obtains nuclear weapons, an aggressive deterrent strategy would be appropriate, including a nuclear "umbrella" to protect allies. The purpose of a deterrent is to deter, and the profound hope would be that no nuclear weapons are ever used (again).
That said, Iran does not have yet nuclear weapons, so they don't need to be deterred from using them. Tough talk about obliterating them will only serve to make them paranoid, empower their hawks, and further persuade them of the need for a deterrent of their own. Think about what American voters would do if Putin, say, started talking about obliterating us.
April 22, 2008 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
How does talking about obliterating them if they continue to pursue nuclear weapons, acquire nuclear weapons and attack Israel with them empower their hawks and persuade them to continue to pursue nuclear weapons? It does exactly the opposite. It tells them they can't get what they want by pursuing nuclear weapons and it reassures all of the Sunni Arab countries about our commitment to them in the event that Iran gets nuclear weapons.
However. My question was about the real substance of her proposal: a NATO-like organization for the ME. Did you just overlook it, or did you duck it?
If you oppose that idea, I'd like to know why.
April 22, 2008 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I oppose it unless there is a real threat of an attack from Iran that Israel can't handle on her own. My comment about "a nuclear umbrella to protect allies" was meant to refer to a NATO-like organization. (As article_man points out, Israel has sufficient nuclear deterrent, so that even a nuclearized Iran would make such an organization unnecessary.)
What's the downside to a NATO of the Middle East? (Which would likely include only Israel and the U.S., so it's not much of a NATO.) The same as premature threats to obliterate Iran. It would make Iranians feel encircled, defensive, and paranoid, as NATO did to the Soviet Union. In that case, NATO was necessary because the USSR was expansionist. NATO (arguably) served to contain that expansion. Iran has not exhibited expansionist tendencies. So you get the downside of making them paranoid for no good reason.
As to your other question, a deterrent threat to "obliterate" Iran if they were to launch a nuclear attack will not stop them from building a bomb, only from using one. Try to think about it from the point of view of an Iranian. A powerful nation allied with your enemies, which you consider aggressive, untrustworthy, and imperialistic, threatens to obliterate you if you ever use a nuclear bomb. Do you say a) "Oh well, I guess nuclear weapons won't do me any good", or b) "Shit howdy! I better get me some of the North Korean stuff before Iraq becomes the launching ground for the next imperialist invasion." (Not that Iranians, or anyone else for that matter, would ever say "Shit howdy".) So again, if Iran gets a weapon, then we need to make sure that there are deterrents in place. Until that time, threats to obliterate them will only serve to make them paranoid for no good reason.
(In theory, you could try to deter them from getting a bomb. But threats to "obliterate" or even invade Iran if they were to develop the bomb would be empty, and they know it.)
April 22, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
She has made it very clear that the organization she envisions would include Sunni nations as well as Israel. What's wrong with that? Saying that it can't be done doesn't sound very hopeful, does it?
As Articleman doesn't point out, extending our umbrella to Israel and Sunni nations would at least meet a pre-condition for Israel giving its nuclear arsenal, however unlikely that my seem now. It is at least a step in a positive direction. Leading Iran to believe there is some chance that we would leave Israel on its own is a step in the wrong direction.
It's disingenous to suggest that affirming what Iran already knows will make them more paranoid. Again. The context is if they attack Israel with nuclear weapons. That shouldn't make them paranoid unless that is their intention.
If we told Switzerland we'll obliterate you if you attack Germany with nuclear weapons, the world would rightly laugh at us. Iran, however, is no laughing matter.
April 22, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Disingenuous? You can disagree with me, but on what grounds do you suggest that I don't actually believe what I'm arguing.
It's simple psychology. If you threaten someone, whatever the grounds, it will breed fear, anger, and mistrust. On a national scale, fear, anger, and mistrust lead to increased militancy. Heck, all Bin Laden has to do is issue a threat to knock down planes, and this country will freak out and issue a code purple or what have you. Clinton has issued a threat to obliterate the entire nation of Iran.
I keep asking you to put yourself in the shoes of an average Iranian (who must not be any cleverer than the average American), but you ignore me. You may understand the counterfactual subtlety of Clinton's point ("if they attack Israel"), but what the average Iranian will hear is "OBLITERATE" and what the average Iranian will see is a powerful, imperialistic nation making alliances with its enemies.
We go there if we have to, but you have neither demonstrated that it would accomplish anything at this point nor that doing so would not further alienate Iran and foment hostilities.
April 22, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you an average Iranian?
April 22, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now you're being flippant. Iranian dissident, Akbar Ganji, among others, has opposed U.S. military threats against Iran, as it gives the regime a pretext to crackdown on dissidents. And here's an article by an Iranian that makes the same point that I have been arguing in much greater detail:
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/askari.php?articleid=10773
On top of that, it is my assumption that people are basically the same. When foreigners threaten or worse, attack, the United States, it makes us hostile, paranoid, and militant. (Can anyone say "Iraq War"?) I think that there is ample historical evidence that citizens of other countries behave the same way. It does not serve our interest to make the Iranians any more hostile, paranoid, or militant than they already are.
Again, we must do whatever it takes if necessary. If there were some kind of credible threat that we could use to keep them from building a bomb, then we should do it. But we cannot justify a nuclear strike to keep them from going nuclear, we cannot afford to invade, and conventional airstrikes, I fear, will not be sufficient deterrent.
As for deterring them from using a bomb if they get one, let's save the confrontational threats until then and avoid alienating the government and people any further when it serves no purpose (except as a gambit to try to get a certain candidate elected).
April 22, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
And by the way, 50% of Iranians favor the development of nuclear weapons.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/08/AR2008030802663_2.html
April 22, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is an interesting take Genghis. Do you think that the Bush Administration's successful campaign to scare the shit out of us has something to do with it?
I mean Hillary cannot use Saddam or Iraq as the scary evil doers, but she could use Iran. Especially if she pisses them off enough for them to make idle threats. Just enough to convince people that there is yet another country that is out to get us.
I know it is conspiracy theory here, but it is not the first time Hillary has used the fear card against us. I am sure it will not be the last.
April 22, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Billy, there is no way in hell any Sunni leader would allow themselves to be involvbed in a treaty that included Israel. Thus, up thread I mentioned there would be a need for conflicting treaties...and that's bad and not in our interests.
April 22, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bullshit. Sunni political leaders are just as pragmatic and scheming and savvy as their US counterparts.
This is one of the things that pisses me off to no end: the media portrays the Middle Eastern and Persian political worlds as some sort of petty, revenge-obsessed TV drama. "Oh, those petty Arabs would never accept Israel! Says right here in the script for Melodramatic Political Drama!"
Yes, there's a lot of Hakim Sixpacks in the Sunni Arab world that would oppose any alliance, no matter how informal, with Israel. You could, however, alleviate some of their concerns by tying the alliance to increased economic development (courtesy the US and EU). If Hakim Sixpack has to decide between having a job and hating on Israel, I have a good feeling about which one he would pick. And plenty of Sunni politcal leaders can see this too, and would love to be the politician that goes down in history as providing jobs to [insert Arab country].
April 22, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you serious!? Hakim sixpack? These are not democratic states vying for the electoral support of their people. They are dictators. The only fear they have is violent overthrow from inside or outside influences, which they meet with a strong hold on their populace and their actions. Overthrow from Islamic groups who abhor Israel is a threat.
And yes, they are pragmatic in the sense they will not let dissident groups paint them as a "friend of Israel." And economic prosperity rarely trickles down to the masses in Saudi Arabia, their leaders aren't looking for economic packages that raise employment for a massive amount of people. They are looking for economic packages that build more palaces...for them.
This isn't information laid down in some imaginary manual or whatever the hell you think it comes from. It's been proven time and again. It's the realities on the ground. Do you really expect us to believe Arabs are genuinely interested in making treaties with Israelis on a whim? Especially military alliances? Israel is tolerated, nothing more. An Arab leader who pledges military support for Israel is doomed. Do you really think Syria or Saudi Arabia would come to the defense of Israel when Hezbollah or Hamas attacks again!?
Economic packages!? Gimme a break.
April 22, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, Israel is never going to give up its nukes...
April 22, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hopeless defeatism. How do we know what Israel might do in the context of a peaceful alliance with her Arab neighbors.
April 22, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
And how do we know that Hillary is truthful when she says wants to create a NATO like alliance? She has no qualms going against the status quo if it does not suit her vision or beliefs. Groups like that only work when every country abides by the rules they agree on. Hillary has shown time and time again that she will throw any of those alliances under the bus if they do not agree with her premises.
Bulls in china shops don't like to be reined in.
April 22, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry, WHAT? You honestly consider a voluntary reduction of Israel's arsenal a possibility?
Talk about the audacity of hope.
April 22, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not an expert, but it seems to me that by forming a defense coalition with Sunni, but not Shia nations is a dangerous gambit. We're essentially taking formal sides in a religious conflict.
I'd also wonder what the fallout would be with Russia. They've already objected to the expansion of NATO, and no doubt would bristle in response to another security zone being erected by the U.S. from the south. Given the Russians and Iranians have a fairly cozy relationship, might this spur some kind of new "Warsaw Pact" response in which the two nations join in a mutual defense pact, possibly pulling in other nations as well?
Something about this stinks. Isn't this how world wars are started?
Finally, other than Israel and the U.S., which would be the only real contributors in a military response, what are the other countries supposed to contribute? I don't quite get the rational for us being willing to spill our own blood for oil that will disappear within a few decades. Wouldn't we be better off spending the same billions of dollars on some kind of alternate-energy Manhattan Project that would free us from oil dependence in the next 5-10 years?
Billy, maybe this is a good thing, but I'm pretty wary of it until someone can explain in depth, how this will happen, who the players will be, how much it will cost us, what kind of commitments and contributions we can count on from partnering nations, and what the responses will be from neighboring nations in the region. None of us here in the echo chamber are in a position to say definitively, one way or the other, that the security umbrella Clinton has alluded to is either a good thing or a bad thing; we don't have enough information to make that call.
April 22, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are we know picking sides and have decided that Sunnis are the good Muslims or something? Where does that leave Iraq, which now has a Shia government (that doesn't have any real interest in sharing power with its Sunni minority, hence the simmering civil war).
April 22, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, who's the enemy? NATO was formed only because of the threat of the Soviet Union, but we don't have the USSR to kick around anymore.
April 22, 2008 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iran and other Shiite extremists.
April 22, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
And don't forget SEATO.
April 22, 2008 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Billy,
You may wish to reconsider that thought process in light of our current and probable-future foreign policy stances.
First, that would mean that Iraq, as well as Iran are "the bad guys". In fact, They're the only nations with large populations of shi'a muslims other than Kuwait (large populations being defined as over 20% of the muslim population being Shi'a). Would Kuwait be a bad guy (with 30% Shi'a) or not?
So, 'METO' is to stop Iran, Iraq and (possibly) Kuwait. umm...Except we're friends (and propping up the govt's) of Iraq and Kuwait. yah.
Secondly, this 'METO' would be comprised of Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Palestine, and Lebanon (all nations with an axe to grind with Israel and, tangentally, the US) as well as Israel and the US. Of course, there'd be other people too, like Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait (if they're considered 'sunni enough'), Saudi Arabia and prolly Turkey, Afganistan and Pakistan if we're feeling generous.
Most of these nations consider Israel a much more clear and present danger to their national security than Iran. Many aren't really chummy with the US either. So, why would they 'choose sides' with the US (who will HAVE to buy their black gold, whether we like it or not) instead of the regional power who doesn't NEED them, but would like them. I'm seeing this polarizing the Middle East, turning it into another SE Asia, replete with brush-wars.
What is the REAL purpose behind this 'alliance'? To prevent Iran, who has no active nuclear weps program, from getting the bomb? To prevent them from using the bomb they don't have against Israel...who has nukes herself as well as an ABM system? Israel does not need any "special protection", let alone the US nuclear arsenal standing behind her. If anything, her neighbors need protection against her. If THAT is what you think could be accomplished by this treaty, then you're back to the Bath'ists and the Pan-Arab League.
FWIW, I think dialogue in the region IS very important and I agree that substantive nuclear safeguards should be in place for ALL of the nations in the region. Unfortunately, that would include Israel and, thus, is a third rail which all but the most reactionary jingoists are loathe to even consider.
April 22, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
In case you hadn't noticed, no Iranian or Shia extremists ever posed any threat to the U.S. before we invaded Iraq. They pose some threat to our troops now because we're occupying Iraq, a Shia nation. If we get the hell out of Iraq, we have no problem with Iran.
Yes, yes, I know Iran says death to Israel about six times a day. But they've been doing that for decades! If there's any new threat coming out of Iran, I'm sure Israel is all over it.
April 22, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm, just to introduce a little fact into this fight, ISRAEL ALREADY HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS!!!!!!! Hundreds of them. Threatening to nuke Iran if they nuke Israel is basically just promising to re-nuke the puddles of glowing green glass left from the IAF's retaliatory strike.
I guess nuking the ashes might spread fallout to extra countries if the wind changes between Israel's strike and ours, and that's always a plus in the neocon worldview, but its utterly insane on any other level.
If Iran is not deterred by Israel's nuclear arsenal, adding out own threat is nothing but a sick, unnecessary and potentially destabalizing pander to the Likudniks among the Jewish community.
April 22, 2008 8:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Has Israel come out of the closet recently about this? I don't think so.
While most agree that Israel has the bomb (it's one of those "secrets" that is more powerful if known but kept a "secret"), to say the number is in the hundreds is irresponsible. It's not clear how many are in the arsenal -- but hundreds strains all credibility.
April 22, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
What the US government has inpired is countries sneaking around to get nuclear armament. This is what both India and Pakistan did. And I think both of them signed the non-proliferation treaties, too. So, we rewarded governments who didn't keep their word. This helps encourage people like Kim Jung Il. Stupid policy.
It really is time we (as a country) got over this 'alliances' frame and got over the 'US-first' frame (bullying really does make you hated) and got into the "let's all treat each other fairly" and just help each other out" frame.
The US has been bullying around the world to the point that people from other countries hear our leaders talk about our "national interests" and they replace them with "unchecked greed and imperialism", and not without pretty substantial reason.
It's time for Israel to get off their high horse and admit that they need to actually get along with their neighbors and admit that they've been as incendiary as anybody else in creating conflict in the last 20 years, at least.
April 22, 2008 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just have to say that this is the most distorted post and comment thread I've ever read in the echo chamber. You guys have burrowed to new depths. When I read posts and comments like this I have to wonder if you really understand why Muslim extremists hate Israel. In the echo chamber, Iran is transformed into a reasonable state and the US into a monster. I'm really sick of it.
April 22, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Calm down, Billy. You may reasonably disagree with the post and comments, but if you think that this is "the most distorted post and comment thread" you've read, then you must not be reading very closely. This is a rare, substantive discussion, and many of the comments here make subtle and insightful points that are only loosely tied to the interminable Obama-Clinton debates.
I appreciate you defending the other side, and I don't expect you to agree with me or anyone else, but your typical "echo chamber" dismissal is way off base in this thread and makes me think that you're not following the line of argument.
April 22, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's not to say that there aren't any silly comments as well.
April 22, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm following it. Bademus and others are consistently changing the context from if Iran attacks Israel with nuclear weapons to a nuclear attack on Iran for some other reason. The original post did it, and many comments continue to accept and reinforce that distortion. I'm asking you, as a leading voice in the echo chamber, to reject and renounce the distortion. There is no reasonable argument beyond this point.
April 22, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK. I agree that bademus misinterprets Clinton in the comments. Particularly this quote: "She's the one to say bomb Iran if they become nuclear."
Bad bademus!!!
April 22, 2008 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
You shouldn't invite him to your party tonight. He's bad enough in the echo chamber. It would be a disaster to let him out into the real world.
April 22, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iran is a reasonable state actor, but we are not monsters. If Iran were not a reasonable state actor then deterence would not work. Sen Clinton's plans on this issue are not crazy. I do not think it would be an unreasonable position for the US to take if we said to the world, 'We will never launch a nuclear first strike, but if any nation does against any other nation we will glasify the instigator.'
The only clearly insane thing I have heard Sen Clinton say on this issue is that we cannot take first strike off the table. No first strike should be our publicly stated policy and it is the crazy bastards who refuse to articulate this who lead other countries to seek their ownb deterrent.
April 22, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know many who do. I know others who think it was a bad decision but a close call. I think on balance it was a good call because even more Japaneese would have died in an invasion not to mention the the tens or hundreds of thousands of American slodiers who would have died invading. The Imperial army was teaching grade schoolers to be Kamikazi anti tank weapons and issuing them sachel charges for the job.
Acting like it is a given that it was a bad thing marks you as a person who has never seriously considered the issue and has zero knowlege of the debate surrounding it.
April 22, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now and then I wonder how MacArthur managed to completely transform Shintoism into a benign, pantheistic religion in so short a time. I know there are people who think we may have to do the same thing with Islam someday. Seems a daunting challenge.
April 22, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have read a few articles about religion in Japan and I am not sure that he did. In modern Japan (if the sources I have read can be trusted) there is much ritual but little religious belief. I am not sure that the military govenor can take credit for that. I would think that a crushing military defeat would discredit a warior cult.
April 22, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess we need a radical Islamist state to crush. Too bad al Qaeda doesn't have one. Maybe just crushing al Qaeda will help. That seems long overdue. We seem to be having trouble getting our act together. Clinton had the right model for responding to terrorism -- with some changes to the law to let agencies cooperate -- but didn't apply it on a large enough scale. Bush got the scale right, but he got the model disastrously wrong. With Bush gone, maybe we can get back to the Clinton model on a large enough scale to get the job done.
April 22, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that Sen Obama will do that and engage in diplomacy with key actors in the region to repair our immage and stop being their recruiter like GWB has been.
April 22, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
On the other hand, our defeat in Iraq has certainly discredited the neo-cons.
April 22, 2008 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I give Bush credit for one good thing he did. He made it more respectable to be an atheist libeal like me. He hurt religion and conservatism more than any thousand liberal atheist activists colectively could have.
April 22, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I give Bush credit for one good thing he did. He made it more respectable to be an atheist libeal like me. He hurt religion and conservatism more than any thousand liberal atheist activists colectively could have.
April 22, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not in their own minds. They just think it was poor execution on the part of Bush & Rumsfeld.
April 22, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've spent a number of years living in Japan and I'm reluctant to delve into this in a online discussion... It's such a huge subject...
I'm going to resort to a few generalization, but it must be understood that the homogeneous nature of Japanese culture means that those generalizations are actually pretty slight.
Your sources were good, Larry. For the great majority of Japanese, there's very little of what's considered "spirituality" in their Shinto and Buddhism. Even the fact that most Japanese consider themselves to be members of *both* religions is an indication of that. Long story short, religion is generally viewed on a level that many others would call "superstition." If fact, I can confidently say that more credence is paid to the results of the daily horoscope-like prediction that's based on one's blood type (very popular activity in Japan - Everyone knows their's and they're shocked when I tell them I can't remember mine) than is paid to either Shinto or Buddhism.
I generally get the same answer when I ask a Japanese, for example, "Why to you go to a shrine on the first day of the new year?" The answer - "I go because my family goes, and if my family didn't go, everyone would ask why we didn't. It's just easier to go."
And Christian style weddings are the norm in Japan, simply because of an attraction to the trappings of the ceremony itself. There's no minister or priest, just a stand in. It's the legal act of of signing the papers (which occurs at the ceremony) which signifies that a marriage has taken place.
And yes, MacArthur didn't turn Japan into a peace-loving country, their humility in defeat did. Their relief that U.S. occupying forces gave them chocolate instead of raping and killing them (which they'd been forcefully lead to believe would occur) was also a factor.
But there is a caution here, a VERY serious one, in my opinion. From an outside perspective, Japanese tend to be very extreme. I can site many examples, but the pertinent one per this discussion is - They can be a deeply and genuinely peace loving people, as they very much are today, or like a switch, they can be the fiercest, most capable, most violet, and ruthless fighters, perhaps on Earth.
Combine that with a culture that harshly frowns on the questioning of authority ("The nail that sticks out gets hammered down.") and one begins to understand the danger which still exists.
General MacArthur and his boys understood this when they whipped out Japan's constitution, a constitution which severely limited the size and capabilities of Japan's military.
In recent years there have been increases in the country's military budget and efforts to amend their constitution to allow for an even greater level of military spending.
I love Japan. I love the *people* of Japan. But I oppose any effort that will allow them to further increase the size of their military.
April 22, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hiroshima, Nagasaki and nuclear weapons are abominations...but necessary, sadly. I will never refer to nukes or the destruction they can bring on us or anybody else as anything "good". War is not good, it's necessary. When we engage in war or any military action, the slaughter should be at the forefront of our minds. Know what you're asking when you send in the Marines. The Battle of Fallujah is a good example. The Marines were asked to go in, the field commanders reiterated to their superiors what would happen when the Marines "go in". They went in and eventually the powers that be decided it wasn't such a good idea and stopped them short of the objective they were close to reaching.
War is violence amplified, human beings hacked to pieces in front of your eyes, the environment and places people called home destroyed by the destruction, and those involved tainted for the rest of their lives. There's a reason Japan changed thousands of years of military culture to become a passive nation.
Anyone who threatens destruction against someone else should keep that in my mind. I'm not convinced Clinton has done so.
I'm a cold hearted sonuvabitch when it comes to these things, but I never forget that. When we engage or threaten a foe, it better be for a good damn reason.
April 22, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hue after the Battle For Hue.
April 22, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Respect. I admit, I had to look that one up, but yes, that's what I'm talking about.
Quote from a Marine Capt. says it all: "Did we have to destroy the town in order to save it"?
April 22, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forgot to add my answer to his question: yes, it is necessary IMO. For me, there's a reason why our troops are still taking shots from people all over Iraq. Complete subjugation has not been achieved, nor will it ever, thus, never ending war. Reports say Fallujah is one of the more peaceful cities now.
April 22, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Billy,
Flesh out the NATO like Nuclear Umbrella for "Israel and Sunni Nations" which you say Senator Clinton wants to provide:
Where would that leave Iraq? Would that Umbrella protect only the Sunni Region of Iraq. Likewise Lebanon?. Would it protect Syria, which is majority Sunni but has a Shiite Leader?.
If the USA is the one who is going to provide the Nuclear Umbrella in a NATO like accord, will Israel be required to surrender all of it's current nuclear arsenal, since apparently the idea of protecting the Sunnis is to keep them from developing and deploying their own Nukes, right? What Arab leader is going to agree to let Israel keep theirs while all the Arab states are not allowed to have any?
How about some answers please.
April 22, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is not required that one begin the consideration of an Idea with all posible problems worked out. To insist that your debate advisary do so is not an argument against the idea.
April 22, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am well aware of the costs of war. 'Good thing' in this case means 'correct choice'.
April 22, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, just getting it out there. I agree then, Truman made the "correct choice." Sometimes our civilian leadership seem to be unaware of what war truly entails. Truman was well aware, I'm not sure Bush & co ever were or even are now.
April 22, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
They clearly are not. They do not care. Our welfare does not figure into their calculatione.
April 22, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Regarding Hiroshima and Nagasaki...
The Russians were coming from the north.
If the U.S. hadn't dropped those awful weapons, forcing a quick surrender, we would have quite possibly seen a divided Japan, very much like the formerly divided Germany.
That divided Germany spent decades as the likely battle ground of a superpower war. We were lucky to avoid that war. Would we have avoided it if there had been TWO potential fronts? I'm glad we didn't have to find out. And what of the Japanese people?
And something that many don't know about the dropping of those nuclear weapon on Japan - It wasn't the loss of life or the horror of the bombs themselves that forced the Japanese surrender.
After the dropping of the first bomb, the most aggressive and powerful faction of Japan's military leadership argued successfully that it was America's only one, that there was no need to worry about another bomb. When that was proven incorrect by the destruction of Nagasaki, surrender was forced (in the midst of an attempted coup by the previously mention military leaders).
But, as I said, it was not the loss of life or horror wrought by the weapon that forced surrender, but rather the fear that the next bomb would kill the Emperor, a god.
April 22, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
This thread is a clear illustration of why pols should avoid answering hypothetical questions.
April 22, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
How about we demand Israel give up their nukes?
April 22, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not going to happen in the foreseeable future, so why bother with the demands? If you lived in a nation the size of New Jersey, surrounded by hostile countries that have repeatedly invaded yours and most of which have not even recognized your nation's existence, would you give up your nuclear weapons?
I'm not taking a moral stance here, just trying to explain the point of view of those to whom you'd be making demands. The logic of another nation's disarmament (Israel or Iran) is easy to see from the safety of our protected shores.
April 22, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
And how can they give up something (no matter how many times they've alluded to them) that they insist they don't have.
It's similar, in a way, to the situation in Japan. The Japanese constitution forbids nuclear weapons anywhere on their territory. But our carrier groups sit in their ports, well armed with them. When Japanese protest for their removal, the U.S. denies their existence.
April 22, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
So lets talk distortion for a moment.
There have been a number of requests to limit this discussion to a scenario that only involves a nuclear Iran attacking a US ally.
Iran is not nuclear.
The core distortion of this issue exists in the hypothetical scenario.
Is it not a distortion of the current conditions on the ground to assume that a nuclear Iran is a foregone conclusion?
I submit that it is. Therefor, arguing that a hawkish stance is necessary in order to prevent Iran from using weapons it does not possess is fallacious.
Is it not more important to discuss the options that exist to prevent a nuclear Iran?
If one does assume the scenario, shouldn't we factor in how the Iranians got nuclear capability?
What if the juiced up Iranian arsenal was achieved through significant aid from Putin? Is a nuclear attack on Iran a responsible option?
April 22, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Follow Hillary's approach and it would hard to count the number of countries in the Middle East and Eastern Europe that would then be attacking both Israel and the US, covertly and otherwise.. its a silly move. We should have learnt something from GWB's wonderful escapades in Iraq.
April 22, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Follow Hillary's approach and it would hard to count the number of countries in the Middle East and Eastern Europe that would then be attacking both Israel and the US, covertly and otherwise.. its a silly move.
We should have learnt something from GWB's wonderful escapades in Iraq.
April 22, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
why do we have to nuke iran for israel?
why cant the israelis just nuke 'em themselves?
April 22, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because AIPAC needs some lovin
April 22, 2008 3:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, let's just nuke everybody and see what happens. It's the year of living dangerously.
April 22, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would we also accept if Russia or China provides a Nuclear Umbrella for Iran, or is Hillary willing to Nuke Israel if they use their Nukes first and hit Iran?. Are we going to be even handed about it, or is all just a Hillary smokescreen to threaten Iran on behalf of Israel only? Does anyone really believe that if Iran struck Libya, for example, that Hillary would launch a massive nuclear attack on Iran. Can you say masssive radioactive fallout boys and girls?
Come on folks how stupid does Hillary take you to be. Not you Billy Glad, because I read another post of yours where you say you still support Hillary having voted for the Invasion of Iraq and you think it was the right thing to do. Therefore, I do no need to hear from you, since it has become clear that you are clearly a Neo-Con Chicken Hawk War Monger.
April 22, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yaaaaawn......
April 22, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
GFYWAIR m'tard
April 22, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis, why are you taking Billy Glad's incoherent proposal seriously? According to him, the Shia (including most Iraqis?) are our enemies, and the Sunni (al Qaeda?) are our friends. He also recommends that "we" should take on the "daunting challenge" of transforming Islam into a "benign" religion like he says Shintoism is. (I gather he's saying here that Islam in general -- or maybe just Shia Islam? -- is somehow malign.) This challenge, he suggests, should be best be accomplished by "crushing" something -- a "radical Islamic state" or "al Qaeda." That'll show those uppity Shia. Oh, al Qaeda is Sunni? Whoops.
I gotta laugh at the hubris of believing that "we" can change the religious beliefs of a billion people (which we needn't bother to understand) by bombing some subset of them. Sadly, that idea fits nicely with the neocon empire-building dreams of Feith, Wolfowitz, Rice, etc. You remember those dreams of American empire -- cakewalk, greeted with flowers, beacon of democracy, like dominoes, etc.? It worked out so well last time we tried it ...
If you guys want to take this proposal seriously, talk amongst yourselves, here on this nice safe website, where you won't hurt anybody. Fortunately, even Clinton isn't proposing anything that foolish. Just so long as those empire-building, religion-changing nutbars aren't allowed anywhere near the red button. Yeehaw!
April 22, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was just so excited to be discussing something other than flag pins and Rev Wright, I couldn't help myself.
April 22, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh heh, I hear ya.
April 22, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iran IMO isn't going to nuke Israel in the near future...or distant future. I wish we had a prez who wanted to create more nuclear disarmament.
And if anything the Israel and Palestinian conflict needs to get resolved. This issue is used to rile folks up, stir up anti-American sentiment etc.
As far as Arabs joining this alliance, they would do what the US said. Didn't you see how hardly any Arab nations went to the recent summit on the Iraq war, suffering of the Iraqi people....The US told them not to go and they didn't. These Arab nations have turned a blind-eye. Sure, they help the refugees but they don't want to make the US look bad.
April 22, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
DR. HILLARY STRANGELOVE CLINTON
HAS LEARNED TO LOVE THE BOMB!!!
April 22, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
People who refer to a discussion as "an echo chamber" really ought to stop denigrating themselves by offering more echoes.
Iran has never attacked or threatened to attack America. On the other hand, America has in the past violently overthrown democratically elected Iranian governments and substituted dictatorial regimes in their places. Such unnecessary and counter-productive behavior makes America a rogue pariah among nations and not much of a country worth counting as a "friend," let alone an "ally."
As an ambassador from a south-asian country once told me: "If the Americans come, they will just draw an arbitrary line through a temporary problem and make both permanent." America doesn't solve problems for the rest of the world. America creates and exacerbates them.
Naked imperial-military aggression against non-belligerent sovereign nations normally engenders blowback counter-alliances against the fascist aggressor. Hence the increasing isolation of America because of its own native fascism and unthinking support for right-wing Israeli apartheid zionism.
April 22, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually Khobar Towers and the Lebanon bombing were both ordered by Tehran, which controls Hezbollah, so they have attacked our troops.
Prior to Mosaddegh's rise to power, it was America that booted the Brits and the Russians out of Iran and insisted on their soverignty as a nation. Eisenhower was staunchly anti-colonial and anti-Soviet empire, but the CIA convinced him to turn against Mosaddegh. That was a mistake, but my point is Mossaddegh wouldn't have risen to power in the first place without us.
Your analysis of America being a rip-snorting out-of-control gorilla is shameful. Do some research, my friend. You will find that China and Russia are far more unilateral in their foreign policy than Bush has been. We make mistakes, but it is also a very complex world with intractable problems that are very difficult to solve.
April 22, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Leaving aside the highly questionable wisdom of Hillary's stated nuclear strategy, the whole scenario is moot.
There is ample evidence that Israel has a stockpile of nuclear weapons (see http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/). With these in hand, what do you think the Israeli response to a nuclear attack on Israel would be?
By the time the US government decided on a response, the Israelis would have obliterated the most likely target(s), and begun the followup: all-out conventional war to utterly wipe out any political organization deemed responsible for the original attack.
Exactly as we ourselves would do.
I'm not saying this would be the proper or the only possible response, but if they deemed such a response necessary, Israel will certainly get around to doing it before the US weighed in.
Our job after a nuke attack on Israel would be to limit the global damage, not to lob more nukes at what would already be a shattered ruin.
April 22, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Hey, you there, guy without any hands, if I ever catch you throwing a punch at this guy with the huge fists, I will knock your head off" Dr. Hillary Strangelove Clinton
April 22, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
This entire issue is bogus. Look at reality:
1. If Iran -- which doesn't have nukes -- did have nukes, and were to nuke Israel, the nuclear fallout woulde fall also on Iran as result of proximity. Clue: if you bomb your neighr's house with a nuke, your house is gone too.
2. If Iram -- which doesn't have nukes -- did have nukes, and were to nuke Israel, Israel would nuke them in return.
3. The US would do the same in behalf of Israel.
The purpose of having nukes in the Middle East if one isn't Israel is to deter Israel -- which has uukes but has remained in violation of nuclear treaties and international law by refusing to declare them -- and the US, from going to the ultimate extreme in defense of Israel.
That's all there is to it.
Those who believe the hysterical BS about Iran and nukes are the same stoopid faction who hate Muslims simply because the Bushit criminal enterprise, and Israel, instruct them to.
It's amazing the number of right-wing Republican haters who post here, dishonestly pretending to be Democrats.
April 22, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX STILL HUNGRY!
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX *STILL* *HUNGRY*!!!
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IRAN *DELICIOUS* LOOK COUNTRY!
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NUKE TALK GOOD FOR HELP START IRAN WAR! NUKE TALK MORE!!
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX WILL BIGGER STRONGER!!!
FEED TO ME IRAN WAR!!!!
*FEED* *TO* *ME* *IRAN* *WAR*!!!!!
NOW!!!!!!!!
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX STILL HUNGRY!
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX *STILL* *HUNGRY*!!!
IRAQ AFGHANISTAN SNA...
Together we can slay this stupid beast.
April 22, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's time TPM put an adult in charge of some minimal editing here. The hate-speech from the right-wig trolls is deafening -- which is, of course, their intent: they only believe in free speech for those who agree with them.
If, on the other hand, you're opposed to personal attacks, then stop yours.
April 22, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't had time to read this entire thread yet. Who was that in response to?
April 22, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I don't think there is anyone in this country that looks back and thinks that Hiroshima was a good thing."
Two points:
1. There are many in "this country" who assert that the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were good things.
2. "I don't think". Thank's for admitting that right up front. Those three words could be your autobiography.
April 22, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is typical of Hillary, she says exactly what she thinks people want to hear, even if she won't have the authority to implement whatever it is (Take gay marriage for example).
April 22, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I usually try to get to the end of comments before I post but this is just too damn much!!
Is it just me or isn't this, to quote one of the candidates, "the mindset that lead us to war" in the first place?
MAD has NO place in this century!
April 22, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought MAD died with the USSR. Even then, we were using the MAD strategy against a relatively equal nuclear power mainly in the case of them attacking us. Sure, we have a defense commitment to NATO and we've promised to defend them through war if necessary, but war doesn't necessarily mean massive retaliation or obliterating the civilian population of the other side.
April 22, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is all hypothetical because Iran has no nukes but -
Yes, we cannot have a MAD doctrine with Iran as they could not destroy us. Iran and Israel could possibly have one in a few decade or more if Iran could gather enough nukes to be a serious threat at that time. However if we were to threaten nukes a MAD doctrine would develop between us and Russia and or China because they would not allow us to use our nuclear weapons. There is a balance. If Iran were to upset that balance they could be rendered incapacitated with conventional weapons without allowing them to touch off a nuclear holocaust.
April 22, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry, the fact that she said this is the issue. Of course there is no issue about Iran nuking Isreal. But that she would say this -- now that's scary!!
April 22, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, that was supposed to be a JNagarya upthread a ways. Always forget the checkbox.
April 22, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons, but Israel does. Is Hillary promising to obliterate Israel if it attacks Iran? If the US votes her in after this open warmongering, the US will complete its alienation from the rest of the world.
April 22, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
a. When was the last time the Persians went on some military road trip? I really don't see that type of history with Iran...
b. Since when does anyone (even another nuclear power) attack a nuclear state? WE'RE not even crazy enough to attack a nuclear state and we're dropping bombs on a new country or region every few years! We freakin' fight everybody, everywhere! (Korea, Viet Nam, drug wars in the Americas, 'peacekeeping' in the Mid-East, Grenada, Panama, Iraq1, Bosnia, Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq2 and more...in less than 60 years!)
c. Do you honestly think the Persians are that stupid? (see above)
d. Why would we need to do what Israel herself can do?
d. What if Israel provokes it?
e. What if...let's say Russia promises to retalite to an attack on Iran?
f. What if Israel nukes a non-nuclear Iran?
This Iranian crap is tiresome propoganda from the same old crew. Why would we trust the same people who lied us into the 2nd war with this country that has never, ever threatened or raised a hand to us? Rather psychotic when you really think about it, huh?
My point is that this proves, in my mind at least that Senator Clinton has the worldview of the crew that's already in the Whitehouse. (Yes, suppose I've been in denial - a little.)
I, on a very deep and fundamental level, cannot stand that about her. It is soooo disappointing. All she's seen in her years of tremendous 'experience' leads to such a hawkish stand? (Never understood 'old hawks' - people don't learn or care, I guess).
If she's so experienced, she's seen the naked realities of war (if thru nothing else, the stories she heard in Tuzla and the stories and images of the most recent American experiences in the middle east) and knows that it's NOTHING to take lighly or commit to in a...debate! She should know, at her age, that it's only the common person on the street, trying to keep up, raise kids, maintain a home, afford gas(!) etc. - the people she purports to care so much about - that get ground to dust by the millions in war. She is another heartless armchair warrior. Another child of privilige playing with toys beyond her comprehension.
Familiar?
She'll also need to prove that her dick is bigger than anyone else's in the Beltway of course.
A dangerous combination. She comes across as rather reckless and scornful of details and nuance with that answer.
Another familiar tune...
Maybe it's just campaign stuff.
But you know? I was hoping for just the opposite from a woman as Prez. A cooler head. Some common sense.
Btw...the correct answer is: We will do everything in our power to ensure things never - ever even come close to that...
April 22, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
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