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Well, she said it
When she said "massive retaliation" I wondered what that meant. I didn't jump to the conclusion of massive nuclear retaliation - after all we have a lot of fire power. But today Keith Olberman pressed her on those debate comments and she said it. She would use massive NUCLEAR retaliation agains Iran if they were to hit Israel AND any other nation in the region. That is an extremely hawkish statement, Napoleonesque. Certainly there is a need to deter Iran. Obama's approach is to attempt negotiation with Ahmadinejad, use sanctions and determine appropriate retaliation based on the action. Hillary's approach is to NOT talk to Ahmadinejad and threaten Massive Nuclear Attack should they attack a neighbor nation. Exactly how much destruction would massive nuclear attack effect on the region? Certainly we protect Israel. We also have protected friendly nations like Kuwait. Our position is known. Certainly we always have our nukes to fall back on but really, Iran is not Russia.
I don't think there is anyone in this country that looks back and thinks that Hiroshima was a good thing. A pundit from Newsweek (forgot his name) made an excellent point after the interview. His point was that Iran doesn't directly attack Israel. The do it via support for Hamas or Hezbolla. Exactly who and were do we nuke? Lebanon, who would be under the umbrella but unhappily harboring Hezbolla? How about starting with rational negotiations. Ahmandinejad may or may not be able to have a rational conversation with the US, but starting out with a promise of nuclear attack would probably guarantee it no rationality. It's just plain reckless.


Comments (173)
Thank you for saying what I was trying to say here, only you said it better:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/are-you-all-watching-hillary-o.php
April 21, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? I thought the context of her remarks was a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran. How did that get dropped out of the angry buzz?
April 22, 2008 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
To say that a nuclear attack on Israel is the same as a nuclear attack on the US, ala NATO, is reckless and completely detached from the regional realities.
If, God forbid, such an attack did occur, the likelihood that it was a government doing the attacking is pretty slim. So, as the blogger clear asks, who do we attack?
Hillary's stance on so many things is reckless and naive and woefully short of anything resembling coherent thought.
It's as if her campaign decided they could act exactly like neocons (I call them neolibs, flip-side of the same filthy fascist coin) and none of the democrats would notice. They thought we had been so hypnotized by the last eight years of neocon White House and neocon/neolib Congress.
Barack bet that the American people would be willing to wake up from this nightmare of corporate-controlled government just in time. I am so happy it appears he was right.
April 22, 2008 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's the regional realities she's trying to alter by proposing a NATO-like organization to bring Sunni Arabs and Israel under the same umbrella.
What's wrong with that?
April 22, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not one thing.
April 22, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because she does not believe that Nato or the UN can have any power over what the US does. She wants no checks on our power. She defended her Iraq vote by making it equivocal to the US going into Kosovo even though the UN did not approve. She has no intention to abide by international law because she believes that the US is all powerful and to hell with the UN and Nato.
Don't believe me? See her meeting with code pink 2 weeks before the invasion of Iraq.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_KEWUU33Lg
History repeats itself.
April 22, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Turning your sovereignty over to the UN or NATO is not the point to the UN or NATO. NATO is about mutual defense. There is nothing in NATO to keep you from defending yourself, only to guarantee you'll have help doing it -- and, with the US in NATO, all the help you need. Ask the ex-Soviets.
April 22, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
defending Israel is not defending ourselves.
April 22, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
And Isreal has it's own nukes - why the F do we need to drop any?
April 22, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
We don't live in a bubble. There are many other players when it comes to war and defending Israel is not the same as defending ourselves from a nuclear attack here. Israel has it's own nukes which are positioned to allow them a second strike against Iran should Iran strike first. For us as a superpower to threaten to destabilize the balance of nuclear relations to avenge our friend who has it's own firepower is beyond reckless.
BTW Iran has no nukes and based on the 10-17-07 NIE report:
"Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005. Our assessment that the program probably was halted primarily in response to international pressure suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously."
She's sabre rattling with our nuclear weapons.
April 22, 2008 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Neo-Liberal is actually a real term that describes the right-wing, free-market extremism displayed by most modern conservatives.
April 22, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they would get the nukes where?
April 22, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of the mumbo-jumbo insinuations, let's go to her words exactly. She's spot on and that's exactly what i was expecting but never heard from Obama.
"Well what we were talking about was the potential for a nuclear attack by Iran, if Iran does achieve what appears to be it's continuing goal of obtaining nuclear weapons, and I think deterrence has not been effectively used in recent times, we used it very well during the Cold War when we had a bipolar world, and what I think the president should do and what our policy should be is to make it very clear to the Iranians that they would be risking massive retaliation were they to launch a nuclear attack on Israel. In addition, if Iran were to become a nuclear power, it could set off an arms race that would be incredibly dangerous and destabilizing because the countries in the region are not going to want Iran to be the only nuclear power. So I can imagine that they would be rushing to obtain nuclear weapons themselves. In order to forestall that, creating some kind of a security agreement where we said, 'No, you do not need to acquire nuclear weapons if you were the subject of an unprovoked nuclear attack by Iran the United States and hopefully our NATO allies would respond to that as well.' It is a theory that some people have been looking at because there is a fear that if Iran, which I hope we can prevent, becoming a nuclear power, but if they were to become one, some people worry that they are not deterrable, that they somehow have a different mindset and a worldview that might very well lead the leadership to be willing to become martyrs. I don't buy that, but I think we have to test it. And one of the ways of testing it is to make it very clear that we are not going to permit them, if we can prevent it, from becoming a nuclear power, but were they to become so, their use of nuclear weapons against Israel would provoke a nuclear response from the United States, which personally I believe would prevent it from happening, and that we would try to help the other countries that might be intimidated and bullied into submission by Iran because they were a nuclear power, avoid that fate by creating this new security umbrella."
April 21, 2008 11:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lalo35adm - this is a "manufactured issue" and you obviously don't know it.
April 21, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
yes it's being manufactured into a McCain-like bomb bomb bomb meme by the blogosphere as we speak. Watch Josh Marshall and Kos write some pompous commentary tomorrow.
Intellect obviously left untouched many pretty faces in the profile pictures, from what I can tell
April 21, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
this is not a 'manufactured controversy'. this is Hillary showing she has absolutely no idea what it means to be President. Hillary's comments will alarm governments from Europe to Asia - China buys a lot of energy products from Iran; Russia and China sell lots of arms and other technology to the region. Both countries could decide to declare their own defense umbrella over their trading partner. Hillary just made the real world a more dangerous place. She needs to apologize and get off the world stage NOW.
April 21, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The President of the United States has no authority to launch nuclear attacks against a nation that has attacked another not involved in a treaty with our government. No such treaty exists for any nation in the Middle East. We deployed and pushed Saddam out of Kuwait at the express requests of the Kuwaiti and Saudi governments. To make such a statement tells me she needs to speak with Joe Biden a bit more. Biden for President!! Oh wait.
April 22, 2008 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
How do we know what secret treaties bush may have signed?
He's done everything else in secret!!!
April 22, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
FWIW, secret treaties are illegal under international law. A precedent set at the Treaty of Westphalia, I believe. (Anyone better at history please feel free to correct me). Although the Bush Administration probably wouldn't care.
April 22, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Secret treaties are also illegal under the Constitution. "He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur;" (Article 2, Section 2).
Not that Bush cares about the Constitution, but I can't imagine an illegal treaty would be enforceable.
April 22, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is some of the dumbest, war-mongering rhetoric I've heard since, um, yesterday I guess, when SoS Rice called the most dangerous man in Iraq a "coward."
Hillary is going to nuke Iran if they look at her the wrong way? Hillary is going to get us out of Iraq by starting an arms race in the Middle East? Hillary is going to apply her campaign finance managing skills to solving our mega-deficit?
Wow, no wonder KO let her ramble on and on and on. All you have to do is listen to her to get the impression fairly quickly that she is bat-shit crazy. Or a Republican. I don't see much difference.
April 21, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
No nuclear weapon has been used in the field in sixty three years. They were used on the theory that they were necessary to bring to its end a war that had cost many hundreds of thousands of soldiers' lives and would, some believed, cost hundreds of thousands more.
Threatening to use them against Iran, a nation with which we are not at war as preemptive deterrence, is truly taking the Republican trend toward greater and less defensible uses of force that began at Grenada, continued through Panama, then to the first Gulf War, then to the Iraq occupation, to a crazy new extreme. Iran is already well aware that we have nuclear weapons, and they therefore serve a deterrent purpose. If Iran is deterrable, they should be deterred now. If Iran is not, goading it with an invitation to engage in some Armageddonlike conflict is pure idiocy. Thank God she's toast. Is there any reason we can't suggest that we'd take out all Iranian military targets with strategic air and missile power? Or is it now our foreign policy to suggest trading mass slaughter of civilians? I guess just during primaries when we want to look hawkish, when we're running Second Amendment robocalls and throwing back boilermakers, for it has nothing to do with statespersonship.
Putting the comment in all its glorious context in no way rehabilitated the stupidity at its core. And how anyone could claim to expect such a grandiose threat from Obama, or anyone with an IQ over 82, is beyond comprehension.
April 21, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, they should be deterred now, but our President is not doing it. And Obama will try to do it by holding hands with them.
April 21, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Out psycho-ing Bush is a really interesting tactic as a solution for the problems of the status quo (although that seems to be McCain's idea too).
April 21, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you article man, well said.
April 21, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahem, I think you are conveniently forgetting the four nuclear missiles that we deployed in 1987 against Costa Rica, when the communists tried to get a foothold on the Panama Canal and the Nazis down in Argentina captured Nikolo Stalin.
April 22, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damnit, no, that was an alternate universe. Never mind--you're right. No nuclear weapons since Nagasaki in your reality.
April 22, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's talking in the context of a nuclear Iran, no? A smart guy like you shouldn't have to distort reality of make your point. I think she's finally driven you people crazy.
April 22, 2008 7:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Billy,
Iran stopped its nuclear program. All of its nuclear materials from power are accounted for.
Both the NIE and IAEA say this. Why, why is she setting up this scarecrow that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. The evidence in not there! It is not!
Scaring people into thinking this is true is no different than the Bush Admin pushing the Saddam WMD story.
Her rant now is almost word for word what her floor speech authorizing the Iraq war was. No wonder she would not apologize for it. She still believes the admin was right to invade.
She's not a democrat - she's a neocon.
April 22, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
actually, their file is in the UN, because there are still unanswered questions by the IAEA and access to certain sites that has been denied. China and Russia have pretty good intel, and it's hard to see them going along with these sanctions, if they weren't convinced Iran wants more than energy.
That said, Hillary's comments were reprehensible, but she might have just been lying.
April 22, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's not distorting reality. Assuming a nuclear Iran is a distortion of reality.
April 22, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just to be clear, I'm not saying he's not distorting Senator Clinton's response at all. I'm just saying that distorting a hypothetical scenario is not distorting reality.
April 22, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think what she was saying was EASY and EMPTY.
Question: What if Portugal developed nuclear weapons and fired them at Israel?
Answer: We would obliterate them off the map!
Stupid question, stupid answer.
Last I checked, Iran has no nukes. Last I heard, they won't be "allowed" to have them.
April 22, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
The radiation from a N-attack on Iran would kill Israelis too. So nuclear is out. For conventional attack, where is she gonna get the troops? It's not just McCain who has a secret plan to bring back the draft - it's Hillary too!
April 21, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deter Iran from what? Didn't the latest intelligence report indicate that Iran isn't anywhere close to having nuclear weapons?
Although with this kind of sabre-rattling from the US, I have to assume that getting them is the Iranian regime's #1 priority ...
I can't wait till President Obama restores some sanity to US foreign policy. (Knock wood!)
April 21, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
*knocks on wood*
April 21, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
agree - looks like Hillary has been too busy campaigning to read the NIE again.
April 21, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS - what is everybody talking about? Israel already has over a hundred nuclear weapons and advanced missiles. And they sure as hell aren't waiting for some jerk in DC to authorize a response!
April 21, 2008 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank You!
PS Hillary doesn't know that because she doesn't like to read NIE's or intelligence briefs.
April 21, 2008 11:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you say circular speak?
But to make a point:
"It is a theory that some people have been looking at because there is a fear that if Iran, which I hope we can prevent, becoming a nuclear power, but if they were to become one, some people worry that they are not deterrable, that they somehow have a different mindset and a world view that might very well lead the leadership to be willing to become martyrs. I don't buy that, but I think we have to test it."
If they become a nuclear power with have a martyr complex - YOU DON'T WANT TO TEST IT! That leads to unpredictable results in a very bad way.
For someone who presents themselves as the intellectual policy wonk this whole construction is so amateurish. It's so . . so . . . so . . . Bushesque.
It begs the question: "Have you really thought this through?" It reinforces the conclusion put forth over the original war vote - if she is guilty of warped logic and poor judgment in the first instance is she not not prone to repeat the same mistake. I think this postulation answers that question.
April 21, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Such a nice, Keith-like way to take half of a quote, squeeze everything out of a juicy word and ignore the rest of the point. But why expect more in this echo-chamber.
Good night everyone and sweet dreams about Obama's sweet-talking Iranians into backing away from "wiping Israel from the face of the earth".
April 21, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And so the hit and run blogging ends, not with an argument, but with a whimper . . .
April 21, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I notice your snappy comments have sort of dried up, too. There's a question on the table this morning that only Ghengis and codegen have been willing to step up to. Why not weigh in?
April 22, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
They are just words Lalo. Are we going to nuke every country that says "death to Americans"? There wouldn't be any countries left. Most of the world hates our guts over the Iraq thing.
Then Hillary has to take it a step further. Now countries who threaten our friendly countries, well they are going to get it too.
Hillary Clinton - respect us and our allies or we'll obliterate you.
April 22, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's the distortion. Cut it out.
April 22, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary can throw out hypothetical situations where she would obliterate countries, we can hypothesize on why that is an insane idea. Why you would chastise us for using higher intellectual reasoning than your own candidate is beyond me.
April 22, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You guys are ridiculous. A theory of nuclear deterrence is a way of keeping the peace. Not starting a war.
The doctrine further assumes that neither side will dare to launch a first strike because the other side will launch on warning (also called fail-deadly) or with secondary forces (second strike) resulting in the destruction of both parties. The payoff of this doctrine is expected to be a tense but stable peace.
This is a far more sophisticated way of looking at the Iran nuclear problem than Obama's solution of bombing Iran if they went nuclear. Wake up!
April 21, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
She's the one to say bomb Iran if they become nuclear. He's the one to say try diplomacy first, we always have our vast arsenal to fall back on.
And really, if we wanted to lay some heavy bombs we could certainly render Iran helpless using conventional ones.
But Hillary and McBush could sing a lovely rendition of Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Bom Iran together.
April 21, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
She didn't say that. Read the transcript again. She uses the threat as a retaliation strike if they do a first strike against Israel. Clearly she understands the MAD doctrine.
April 21, 2008 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
She is looking beyond what the current landscape looks like, if Iran should acquire nuclear weapons. It is meant to prevent a single bomb from being dropped.
April 21, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
MAD. Mutually Assured Destruction. Better look this word up, brother. Is Iran threatening the US with nuclear strikes? Do they have nukes? More importantly, do they have ICBMs to deliver such a payload? Do we have a treaty with Israel? With Saudi Arabia? Syria? Yemen? Fighting Iranian influence will not take the form of nuclear retaliation. To believe so is foolish. For a candidate to suggest it is irresponsible and not in accordance with the facts on the ground.
I knew she was a hawk, but this is ridiculous. Bill probably vomited in his mouth a little when he heard that.
April 22, 2008 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't invert things. A treaty organization similar to NATO or SEATO is what she's laying the ground for. What's wrong with that? Would you oppose a mutual defense organization that included Israel and the Sunni Arab states?
April 22, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't actually oppose such a treaty, but no such thing exists and this won't help it along. To say we are willing to provide an umbrella of protection under such and such treaty would be fine. But there isn't one and to include Arab states in a treaty with Israel wouldn't seem to be something anyone could accomplish. And such a treaty would need to be strategically negotiated, which no such negotiation has even been spoken of.
It was a sloppy and clumsy way to introduce a treaty for the region, if indeed that is what she was doing.
If I intend to represent a client in court, but have not as of yet even spoken with the parties involved. I certianly wouldn't say I'm going to sue evryone for millions of behalf of someone who isn't even my client.
April 22, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. That's what's visionary about it. Can she do it? I don't know. But I think that confronting the real threat to Israel and the Sunni states in the region is a good place to start.
April 22, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is you would have to create conflicting treaties to deal with 1) the threat to Israel from both Sunni states and Iran and 2) a treaty to protect Sunni states from attacks by Iran.
By creating a treaty for Israel, you embroil yourself in the Lebanese Hezbollah/Israeli conflict, you put yourself in a terrible position to negotiate anything with other Arab and Islamic states, and you create a situation that places American resources in jeopardy.
By creating a treaty with Sunni states, you are immediately placing American interests against Iran. If the threat is real and expansion is Iran's game, fine. But is it?
This wasn't well thought out, and has little to do with MAD. NATO allied states were a bulwark against Soviet expansion and it worked well, but it wasn't based upon MAD. MAD is a situation between two states with similar capabilities. Iran doesn't have the capabilities to ensure our destruction. There might be a situation of MAD between Iran and Israel, if Iran ever develops the Bomb. But that has nothing to do with us. I see no situation in which such a treaty could exist in the Middle East.
April 22, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, she thinks the Iranian threat is real. And you're right. We would have to completely transform the Middle East to build an alliance that included Israel and Arab states. Peace would be a pre-condition. Are those bad things. Arabs and Israelis at peace? The US committed to reacting to an attack on them by Iran as an attack on ourselves?
April 22, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those are definitely good things. But why is threatening Iran with nuclear retaliation a step in that direction? I realize detterence is the reason you've been arguing, and I would agree such threats might stop an attack on Israel if we had a treaty to carry that out. But why is that in our interests? In a closed setting involving Iran and Israel only it would work, but I think the Middle East is too complex to approach it that way.
April 22, 2008 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can't penetrate this wall of ignorance, man. This is the same MoveOn mentality that got us please don't invade Afghanistan and the General Betrayus meme.
April 22, 2008 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lets read her words again
She obviously thinks we are stupid. Iran the only nuclear power? Israel has a buttload of nuclear weapons given to them by us. I don't really think we need to get in the middle of it. Israel can certainly deter Iran. They have the only nukes in the area.
April 22, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nuclear deterrence in general and the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction in particular presupposes that both sides can inflict devastating losses on the other thereby creating the tenuous detante which you describe.
That is clearly not the case in this instance as Iraq might in the (near/distant) future have the capabilities (under the best/worst of circumstances) to assemble a relatively crude device coupled with some primitive delivery mechanism which may as likely drop it it the ocean as deliver it anywhere accurately. There is no "Mutual" and definitely no "Assured Destruction" in this scenario.
The fact that we possess and arsenal capable of extinguishing their existence is well understood by all parties and the explicit stating of that fact is redundant and frankly counter productive.
If somehow they were able to acquire or assemble a device they would have to realize that the use of such a device would represent a national leadership suicide pact. Therefore, by definition someone suicidal is not going to be affected by the rational concept of deterrence.
April 21, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Read the transcript. She doesn't believe that they are suicidal maniacs - as you characterize the Iranians. At least we should try, she says.
April 21, 2008 11:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's fine then try - but back to my initial point the only circumstance under which you can deploy a nuclear weapon in the nuclear geopolitical landscape is if you have a arsenal capable of launching your sortie and while maintaining a sufficient strategic capability to deter the annihilation which otherwise is sure to follow (the Launch on Warning doctrine).
So in either case it makes no difference - if they employ a nuclear weapon they are through, so from deterrent standpoint its a ridiculous statement. If you preemptively initiate a nuclear release your state will not continue - That's a given.
April 22, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and she would like to test that.
April 22, 2008 12:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
airwon, I make this point in more detail downthread, but deterrence involves threats, and threats have the downside of alienating a country and encouraging militancy. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, then we will have to ensure that there is a deterrent. But right now, there is nothing to deter, so Clinton's comments recklessly inflame Iran with no clear benefit.
April 22, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
April 22, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they want to have the same toys as their "Peaceful" neighbor, Israel.
April 22, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you test someones commitment to martyrdom by threatening to attack them? "We have to test it" How do you test someones commitment to martyrdom by threatening to attack them? By forcing their hands so they attack? How do you nuke Iran without causing damage to our "umbrella" nations? This isn't a deterrent to developing nuclear weapons, it's only a threat for if they were to be used.
"It could set off an arms race that would be incredibly dangerous and destabilizing because the countries in the region are not going to want Iran to be the only nuclear power."
There already are nukes in the region. Pakistan and India already have nukes.
It's bravado rather than diplomacy.
April 21, 2008 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is why this is an interesting way of looking at the problem in the Middle East.
We already have similar thinking in North East Asia. And that is why China, South Korea, and Japan are all against N. Korea having nuclear weapons.
It is a new way of looking at a potentially nuclear middle east.
April 21, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another way of looking at the middle east.
To approach it from the broader aspect of nuclear diplomacy I offer the following (just my opinion):
"Don't bring a knife to a gunfight"
As far as the middle east is concerned Israel is pretty much an acknowledged nuclear state - at least the surrounding Arab states seem to think so. In this case deterrence seems to be working and Israel has been at peace with the surrounding states for about 40 yrs.
Iran is nervous and would like the same assurance or insurance. When everybody else has the gun and you have the knife you feel like the bitch in the room and any negotiated outcome is a farce.
True accords are only reached when both side have something at stake. That's why all these "my way or the highway" peace accords have failed miserably.
April 21, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's MAD.
Israel's problem with a possible nuclear Iran isn't any really fear of being nuked; that's just for the tourists.
The real strategic issue is than an arab or Farsi nuclear power in the middle east negates--again by MAD--the strategic advantage that being the missle east's only nuclear power gives Israel.
Once your neighbours or their patrons start having nuclear weapons, you can't--as Israel just did to Lebanon--carpet bomb them anymore. They get fed up and start muttering about massive retaliation, which have to take seriously because of MAD.
April 21, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for saying what I was trying to say. It effectively ends Israel's reign as superpower of the middle east.
April 22, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pakistan will get there before Iran. The focus on Iran is fear mongering.
April 22, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Get where? Pakistan already has nuclear weapons. What are you talking about?
April 22, 2008 8:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, that is the argument that Hillary is making.
April 22, 2008 12:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Hillary wins the nomination, I'm voting for McCain.
At least he has the guts to be in the Republican Party for real.
April 22, 2008 12:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fortunately, Senator Clinton is not going to win the nomination. The sooner we all accept that fact, the sooner we can remove that microphone from her hands. That is the second best thing we can do for our national security. Removing the Bush administration from power is the best thing.
April 22, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a quote from Good Morning America today from Ms. Warpath:
"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton said. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."
She is just hammering that down in this 11th hour. She must figure it appeals to that central PA bitter person who votes on single issues rather than careful consideration.
April 22, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. So I guess the decision to vote for AUMF was not an aberration, after all.
Got it.
April 22, 2008 3:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Instead of reading Bademus's bullshit out-of-context quote, go upthread where her entire statement is posted. One of the problems with the echo chamber is you consistently read what you want to read and disregard the rest. Why is that?
April 22, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
How can ANYONE who lived through the uncertainties of the Cold War, and channeling our insecurities into stupid B movies about radioactive monsters, and "duck and cover," and The Day After, and "I Hope the Russians Love Their Children Too" want to bring us back to another standoff?
And how can they call themselves a Democrat?
Thank heavens she's not winning the nomination. Maybe by electing Obama, we'll reassure the rest of the world that while we are still quite powerful, we can also be reasonable.
And we can read NIEs.
April 22, 2008 4:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heres a question: Does her nuclear umbrella apply to all ally countries? Does it apply to N.Korea vs. S.Korea and India vs. Pakistan? If not, why not? Inquiring minds want to know...
April 22, 2008 5:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pakistan and India are both our allies. Why not make a fair argument. If you believe we should disarm, say so. If you believe we should only use nuclear weapons if we are attacked directly, say so.
She is laying the ground for a visionary proposal that would create a NATO-like alliance, including Israel and Sunni countries, under the protection of our nuclear (and other) umbrella. NATO, SEATO, ..... METO? What's wrong with that?
April 22, 2008 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Boy that would really send the oil prices through the roof. Bombing the region that supplies a large % of oil to the world.
April 22, 2008 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Senator You-Know-Her does not have the first clue about real life on planet earth. Only a completely unbalanced maniac would suggest putting America's very existence at risk for a transient crusader state of no strategic value to the United States. Zionist Israel does not vote in American elections, pay American taxes, or deploy its "army" to serve repeated stop-loss tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan (so a few American GIs can catch a break once in awhile). Some ally! So why does You-Know-Her threaten to nuke Iran or any other country on Israel's behalf? Such a threat, if taken seriously by potential targets of our Lunatic-Leviathan/Warfare-Welfare Mother, makes America a target instead of Israel! What a monstrously irresponsible position for any American president to take.
Personally, I don't give a shit about Apartheid, Zionist Israel and couldn't care less what happens or doesn't happen to the place. But that aside, some of us can remember the ecological disaster that Saddam Hussein's retreating army caused by lighting only a few oil wells on fire (with pathetically low powered explosives) as they retreated from Kuwait in 1992. Imagine dropping a "massive" ammout of explosives (of any type) on the world's greatest underground ocean of oil and setting it ablaze for a hundred years! Just try to imagine hurricane-sized columns of greasy black smoke rising up into the atmosphere to blanket the entire earth from the sunlight energy upon which all life depends. A "nuclear winter" of that magnitude wouldn't even require muclear weapons to set it off. A few hundred one-ton conventional bunker busters would do nicely. Adding nukes, of course, just adds long-half-life radio-activity to the already-fatal concentrations of smoke in the upper atmosphere. Again, what a complete and utter maniac to even hint at such a self-instigated apocalypse! And as naturally occurs in America when potential disaster looms, the critical question goes unasked: for what?
A nation dumb and subservient enough to twice acquiesce in letting Deputy Dubya Bush and Buffaloed Girl anywhere near the country's government probably has terminal problems in any event. I agree with Chalmers Johnson and so many other informed observers that the corruption and rot of militarist-imperial America has gone too far for rational redress. The crazy people have escaped Bedlam and now busy themselves madly working the convoluted levers of the biggest Rube Goldberg doomsday machine ever imagined.
April 22, 2008 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Listen up, echo chamber.
If Clinton is laying the ground for a visionary proposal that would create a NATO-like alliance, including Israel and Sunni countries, under the protection of our nuclear (and other) umbrella. NATO, SEATO, ..... METO? What's wrong with that?
Do you oppose the idea? Why? Wasn't NATO a key factor in preventing nuclear proliferation in Europe?
Argue responsibly, please.
April 22, 2008 8:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll bite. If Iran obtains nuclear weapons, an aggressive deterrent strategy would be appropriate, including a nuclear "umbrella" to protect allies. The purpose of a deterrent is to deter, and the profound hope would be that no nuclear weapons are ever used (again).
That said, Iran does not have yet nuclear weapons, so they don't need to be deterred from using them. Tough talk about obliterating them will only serve to make them paranoid, empower their hawks, and further persuade them of the need for a deterrent of their own. Think about what American voters would do if Putin, say, started talking about obliterating us.
April 22, 2008 8:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
How does talking about obliterating them if they continue to pursue nuclear weapons, acquire nuclear weapons and attack Israel with them empower their hawks and persuade them to continue to pursue nuclear weapons? It does exactly the opposite. It tells them they can't get what they want by pursuing nuclear weapons and it reassures all of the Sunni Arab countries about our commitment to them in the event that Iran gets nuclear weapons.
However. My question was about the real substance of her proposal: a NATO-like organization for the ME. Did you just overlook it, or did you duck it?
If you oppose that idea, I'd like to know why.
April 22, 2008 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I oppose it unless there is a real threat of an attack from Iran that Israel can't handle on her own. My comment about "a nuclear umbrella to protect allies" was meant to refer to a NATO-like organization. (As article_man points out, Israel has sufficient nuclear deterrent, so that even a nuclearized Iran would make such an organization unnecessary.)
What's the downside to a NATO of the Middle East? (Which would likely include only Israel and the U.S., so it's not much of a NATO.) The same as premature threats to obliterate Iran. It would make Iranians feel encircled, defensive, and paranoid, as NATO did to the Soviet Union. In that case, NATO was necessary because the USSR was expansionist. NATO (arguably) served to contain that expansion. Iran has not exhibited expansionist tendencies. So you get the downside of making them paranoid for no good reason.
As to your other question, a deterrent threat to "obliterate" Iran if they were to launch a nuclear attack will not stop them from building a bomb, only from using one. Try to think about it from the point of view of an Iranian. A powerful nation allied with your enemies, which you consider aggressive, untrustworthy, and imperialistic, threatens to obliterate you if you ever use a nuclear bomb. Do you say a) "Oh well, I guess nuclear weapons won't do me any good", or b) "Shit howdy! I better get me some of the North Korean stuff before Iraq becomes the launching ground for the next imperialist invasion." (Not that Iranians, or anyone else for that matter, would ever say "Shit howdy".) So again, if Iran gets a weapon, then we need to make sure that there are deterrents in place. Until that time, threats to obliterate them will only serve to make them paranoid for no good reason.
(In theory, you could try to deter them from getting a bomb. But threats to "obliterate" or even invade Iran if they were to develop the bomb would be empty, and they know it.)
April 22, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink