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TPM Readership Poll
Firstly, this is probably not useful and definitely not scientific.
But I'm interested in finding out where the readership (or at least
registered blogging/commenting readers) stand with respect to the
current Dem race.
Four questions.
1. Who do you support right now: Senator Clinton or Senator Obama?
2. If your candidate is not the nominee, would you vote for McCain in November?
3. Who do you think the nominee will be (Clinton or Obama)
4. Who will be the next president of the United States?
Please put your explanations below your answers (or make them a separate comment). My answers here serve as a template:
1. ObamaIf
2. No.
3. Obama.
4. McCain
Unifying the party after an Obama win at the convention will be too much to overcome before November... McCain's free ride leaves him the best choice for Independents.
you're curious about the results too please recommend. The readership
seems to skew Obama here at TPM but this may be an informal way to
gauge it.
Carry on.
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Comments (33)
1. Obama
2. Very unlikely, but possibly if Hillary gets the nomination by being even sleazier than she's been so far. You get more of what you reward, and having future Democratic candidates conclude from Hillary (and Rove) that sleaziness is what wins would be a recipe for long-term crud in the Democratic party.
3. Obama (barring a revelation much, much more shocking that Wrightgate or Bittergate)
4. Obama
I agree that unifying the party won't be easy, and a lot of damage has been done. McCain will have quite a few ads featuring Hillary's words more than his own, especially her endorsement of him over Obama. But don't underestimate Obama.
April 15, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Unsure. Voted for Hillary in Texas primary but like Obama and would be happy with either. I just want a Democrat to be elected.
2. No.
3. Obama, unless things really fall apart.
4. Obama, I hope (see no. 3). But we shall see. I do not underestimate the Republican skill at trashing Democratic nominees. On the other hand, I have been heartened the last couple of days at seeing audiences of both Hillary (in a campaign event) and McCain (on Tuesday's Hardball) respond with boos or audible discontent to any negative insinuation about Obama. Maybe things aren't working out as planned on the anti-Obama side.
April 15, 2008 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Clinton.
2. Probably not. If I don't like the democrats handling of Clinton at the convention, I probably just won't vote. I'm already upset about the top party men (like Leahey) calling for her to "step down" and I'm really upset about Jimmy Carter's statement -- and I have always loved Jimmy Carter, but these men are going too far. They don't own the democratic party and it's time for them to know that. I'm also really tired of the constant chirping by Obama supporters that she's "sleazy." She's no such thing.
3. I honestly don't know at this point. While Clinton is at 10% chance now, things could be different in two weeks.
4. I predict the democrat will win no matter which one it is. The war has been too costly to the Republicans and while McCain is very likeable, I am beginning to think he doesn't have the smarts for the campaign or the job.
April 15, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm also really tired of the constant chirping by Obama supporters that she's "sleazy." She's no such thing.
Name one other Democratic presidential candidate who has ever endorsed the Republican opponent over another Democratic candidate.
For that matter, try to name even a Republican candidate, even a Republican candidate being advised by Rove, who endorsed a Democratic opponent over a fellow Republican.
It's not just sleazy, it's sets a new low, and on the heels of Rovian politics that takes some doing.
April 15, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can say that again.
April 15, 2008 10:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Am I missing something? Carter has implied that he is supporting Obama, but even if he was shouting Obama for president, isn't it his right to support whomever he wants? Besides that, his take is that superdelegates are free to vote for whatever candidate they want (total agreement with Clinton), and that, even though his own state and county went heavily for Obama, he would vote for Clinton if she wound up seeming the better choice. So....Hunh???? Where did he go "too far" for you? Just by seeming to prefer Obama?
April 15, 2008 11:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No
3. Obama
4. Obama
April 15, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No
3. Obama
4. Obama
But on number #4, I don't think anyone can be entirely certain, regardless of who the nominee is. The fact that McCain is polling so well against a Democrat right now as we are coming out of the Bush Presidency just seems...worrying. But I'm done taking it from the GOP attack machine and hopefully so are the rest of the Democrats.
April 15, 2008 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No, I'd just as soon not get drafted for Operation "Look, there's oil next door!".
3. Obama by June 7.
4. Obama, as long as McCain is mercilessly hit with "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" and 100- 10,000 years of occupying Iraq. This country will see the only sane choice after those 2 moments.
Qtip, why the poll to gauge blog commenters?
April 15, 2008 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why the poll to gauge blog commenters?
Many of the people here are the highly informed individuals of the electorate. Intellectuals, Junkies and trolls alike, you all have seen it all. You are the thinkers and the activists. I won't dive into my own bittergate but I can guess the demographics of the average TPM Reader... and I have some assumptions about this blog.
Also, it gives a chance for me to "empirically" say (without laughter) that TPM readership (not staff) skews Clinton/Obama.
...And I'm really interested in predictions.
April 15, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
1.) Neither
2.) No
3.) Obama
4.) Obama
April 15, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't support Obama. He wants to heal the country, and rise above partisanship and work with the Republicans in the spirit of bipartisanship. Fuck that.
Every time the GOP controls the legislature or the presidency, they try to steamroll the Democrats on all issues. And it works. The Democrats capitulate and bargain and end up getting screwed on the issues when the GOP is in power.
What should Democrats do when they are in power? They should return the favor. No bargaining, no bipartisanship. Obama worries me because I can easily see him bargaining with the GOP when he doesn't have to, just to maintain his "above the fray" image.
That said, McCain will never get my vote. He stands for too many things that I disagree with.
Barring a huge scandal, Hillary has completely sunk her campaign with a combination of bad management, bad message and bad luck. There's simply no way that she will get the nomination.
McCain's too old. He's a likable guy, but the country likes youth. The only way McCain can get around this is if he runs with a charismatic VP, but the charisma left the GOP long ago. I'll predict that McCain picks Romney as his VP and loses to Obama in November.
April 15, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. Never
3. Obama
4. Obama
April 15, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't make me come over there - Likable? A man so immoral that he heard his comrades screams while they were tortured, he was tortured and he turned around and voted to torture other prisoners.
Likable? I fucking hate him and every single other person who had anything at all to do with turning this country into a rogue nation that tortures people.,
April 15, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
1 clinton
2 maybe
I don't like the vast majority of the Obama supporters I've met or read and don't want to be associated with them. I'm pissed at the way the votes in Fl and MI were not counted and Obama's fight against a revote. There are many other things I don't like about Obama.
3 obama
4 who knows?
April 15, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just Curious... but do you live in MI or FL? From what I've seen here recently it seems as if Michiganders don't care while Floridians do.
Also, Are you upset about the re-vote because you know Hillary would have won or is it because of disenfranchisement?
April 15, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Fl. I've also read some things that seem to indicate that people in MI don't care and people in FL do. It was all speculation though, nothing conclusive. I think Hillary would have won Fl with a revote and probably lost or tied MI. At least that's what the polls seemed to indicate. Its the disenfranchisement that bothers me. Counting every vote is a core democratic principle.
April 15, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No, I'll request a provisional ballot and write in Obama.
3. Obama
4. Obama
I'm a NYer who never has, and never will vote for Hillary Clinton. I'm disappointed in Democrats who buy into her lies, like above. Statistically, this thing is over. We need to defeat Hillary and expose her for what she is to bring the party back together. Taking down grandpa McCain will be easy for Obama. Think Kennedy Nixon debates, but put it in the mass media age. Hopefully NY can get a new Senator because of the disgrace of her campaign as well. I came to Obama late as an anybody but Hillary Democrat. Now I'm proud to have such a candidate as we do in Obama.
April 15, 2008 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm disappointed in Democrats who buy into her lies, like above.
---------------------------------------------------
What lies? Hillary never told me that many of the Obama supporters I've seen post on the blogs I read are a**holes. I figured it out for myself.
April 15, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama's fight against a revote." No such "fight" ever took place. The man simply said, over and over, HE would follow the Democratic Party's leadership. Hillary's campaign embraced the censuring of MI and FL's delegates until she lost on Super Tuesday, and demanded the rules be changed.
April 16, 2008 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
You haven't been paying attention or you're a partisan hack. I'm not sure which. MI came up with a revote plan and the DNC stated that plan met the DNC rules. Obama used lawyers and supporters in the MI legislature to stop that revote.
These are facts. They were in all the newspapers as well as discussed here. Either you're ignorant of these facts and you need to do more research or you're spinning away these facts to support your candidate. There can be honest disagreement about whether its "fair" for Fl or MI to revote. That's opinion. You, like so many obama supporters, are more interested in spinning, i.e. lieing, to support your candidate then in honest discussion.
April 16, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No
3. Obama
4. Obama
April 15, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No
3. Obama
4. Obama
("copy and paste" sure made that easy)
April 15, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No
3. Obama
4. Obama
The fundamentals are strong for a Democratic victory: eight years of the other party, terribly low approval for the incumbent, war, economy. Obama's running near even with McCain before Clinton endorses him, and he'll get a boost when she does. He's got a stronger sense of turnout than anyone I can remember, and the Republican base doesn't like their nominee. Yeah, they'll throw everything they can find and everything they can fabricate at him, so it will be close. But he's defined a clear self, and I think that's why "bitter" isn't sticking, and the other stuff won't do the damage we're used to, either.
April 15, 2008 10:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. Absolutely not.
3. Obama
4. Obama
April 15, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Senator Obama.
2. Probably would force myself to vote for Senator Clinton.
3. Hopefully and possibly Obama but I never count chickens before they hatch.
4. My fear is McCain. I think he's going to metamorphose during the campaign and move very much toward the center and the media is going to push him hard. Against Clinton, I don't think she would have a chance. Against Obama, well, maybe we can pull it off. I hope against hope.
April 15, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No
3. Obama
4. Obama
("copy and paste" sure made that easy)
April 15, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Obama
2. No
3. Obama
4. Obama
I think he's shown a fantastic ability to overcome challenges so far which gives me great hope compared to Democrats past (kudos to Axelrod and the rest of the team); however it is hard to know how much of a role race will play in the GE or how it will be exploited by the right. Scary stuff, but he deserves the shot.
April 15, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
1.O
2.No
3.O
4.McC
April 15, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Who do I support right now? Senator Obama.
2. If your candidate is not the nominee, would you vote for McCain in November? No.
3. Who do you think the nominee will be? Obama.
4. Who will be the next president of the United States? Obama.
April 15, 2008 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
2. Of course not
4. There will be a 20%+ swing of disgruntled
HRC supporters to McCain. More or less that share who are independents or even republicans for whom
swinging to McCain will be easy. The actual democratic women will do the right thing but it won't be enough.
April 15, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
1. Senator Obama?
2. I will never vote for a member of the GOP again in my life!!!!!!!!!!!!
3. Unsure
4. Remember Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004. GOP vote fraud is alive and well!
April 16, 2008 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
1)Edwards/ then Obama, I was slow jumping on his band-wagon, but got there by Feb 5th SuperDuper Tuesday. Though after his New Hampshire concession speech, I was willing to jump, just to keep him in the race and talking. After Edwards suspended his campaign, my 17 year old son and 69 yr old mother both made me look very hard at Obama.(She said watching my son looking at Obama reminded her of how she felt and must have looked listening to JFK and then later, RFK. And with Edwards, Dodd and Richardson effectively gone, or at least neutered, it was quite easy to vote in my primary for Barack. And at that time, I would have still happily voted for Senator Clinton in the general. Thimgs have changed since then, but she's still much better than McCain.
2)Not just no, but hell no! Does it matter? Nah. TN's electoral votes all go to the 50%+1 Since '96, my vote has not mattered or counted for President. My inclination, if Hillary wins this ugly, is to sit out the Pres race. (Can't reward bad behavior.) But I will still vote for her, McCain is sooooooooooo much worse. And of course I will vote, down-ticket races are damned important too.
3) Obama. There's almost no way she can concievably win the primary fight. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying it is highly improbable and un-likely. It's "inconcievable!", "You keep using that word, I'm not sure it means what you think it means." (As an aside, someone could write a great post comparing Princess Bride and presidential politics, so many great quotes.)
4)Obama. If McCain wins it, we'll all know something is damned wrong. Sure we'll have to see the polling before the vote, but the only clue any of us will have is the post-vote polling. The same poll that showed us that FL was stolen in 2000(and then altered to "reflect the new facts", and that intimated Ohio was stolen in 2004, (and again 'tweeked' to fit the narrative 'Bush has won!'). The only polling data we've ever seen which was changed to reflect the actual final vote count and it's previous day-of data ceased to exist. These are the same polling techniques that the UN and the Carter Center rely on in third-world banana republics to tell them if the actual election results are real. They work everywhere else in the world, but here they are off by a factor of 5 or so? HUH? And we accept the vote tallies we are given by Republican companies, using non- verifiable internal vote counters and counts? And we don't think it's odd when an actual poll of people who had just pulled a lever tell a very different story???
So my fast answer is, yes I will vote for Senator Clinton in the general against McCain.
April 16, 2008 2:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
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