Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Those Damned Undecided, but Likely, Voters
I'll never know how anyone can live in a market dominated by political advertising for multiple weeks, intend to vote, and remain "undecided", but it happens every election season.
My frustration with this group is probably going to intensify tonight. The optimism that I felt yesterday has been replaced with a grim belief that the ultimate allocation of PA's undecided voters will give Hillary a six point bump over her polling average. I now see her winning by twelve to fourteen percent.
I don't think that the margin will alter the final outcome of the primaries, but it will certainly extend the process and delay Democratic Party reconcilliation











Comments (6)
Hey 15% of the population believes Obama is Muslim.
Face it, there are lots of uninformed, disinterested "voters". Let's hope they don't vote.
April 22, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I feel your pain. Pray tell, what information are you waiting for that you cannot have decided by yesterday???
I swear it's mostly people that want to mess with the pollsters. And by extension, us political junkies.
April 22, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps the undecided voters truly are on or near the fence. We tend to forget that the actual candidate positions on all of the issues are remarkably similar (and forget the niggling details--they're so close as to seem almost indistinguishable for the average eye), that although undecideds may tilt very slightly to Hillary, they still hesitate ever so slightly based on her negatives or many slips of the tongue or details like mandatory coverage (I know several people here (Utah) for whom this is a deal-breaker). Or they may be so turned off by the most recent mutual attacks that they feel bad about the whole thing.
So we may be overestimating the effect of the last-minute attack ads reiterating the same old same old.
Question, though: has anyone ever gone back to see how the undecideds actually voted, as opposed to their presumed effect based on differences in final tallies? Frankly, it seems that voters who've reported liking Obama might have moved to Clinton and vice versa, rather than the block of undecideds all going one way.
April 22, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, just found Mark Blumenthal's post on this exact subject:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pennsylvania_wrap_up.php
April 22, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, I've concluded that today's results are wholly unpredictable and they can throw all of the polls out the window. Philly.com has a survey from voters asking when they decided who to vote for. Out of 2800+ respondents, a whopping 10.3% said they decided IN THE POLLING BOOTH! Additionally, 9.3% said they decided in the last week which could be yesterday for all we know. Taken together that's a huge percentage of the vote and just amazing to me given what the candidates put into this state. And it's instructive assuming this in fact indicates results from people who voted today. http://www.philly.com/philly/polls/17987289.html?results=y
April 22, 2008 4:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember what happened in Ohio?
Well, in Pennsylvania, they're older and whiter and Obama's had a bad couple of weeks. Honestly, which way do you think they're going to go?
OP, I have been saying the same as you for awhile. I predict a 10-14 pt win for Clinton in PA.
April 22, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment